Regional Energy System Analysis Strategies

➡𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗱𝗲𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻𝗶𝘀𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆: 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆, 𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗵𝗻𝗼𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘆, 𝗼𝗿 𝗹𝗼𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗴𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲? You can read my last paper, co-authored with Arsène Perrot in the Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society Here’s what we do in this paper 👇 1️⃣ 𝗪𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝘁𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗮 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 “𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗽” Some regions are structurally locked into high CO₂ emissions. This is not about “lack of ambition”. It comes from inherited industrial pathways (steel, chemicals, energy), sunk infrastructure, political routines, and dependence on carbon-intensive activities. In other words: the system itself resists transition. 2️⃣ 𝗪𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼 𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗹𝗲 𝗘𝘂𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝘆 — 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗮𝗿𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗮𝘁𝗵𝘀: • virtuous loop: relatively low emissions, continuing to decrease 📉 • carbon-intensive trap: very high emissions that barely move 🔒 • high-emission trap: historically high emissions, now slowly coming down ⚙️ • evolution trap: regions with lower historical emissions, but emissions are now rising again 🚧 ➡ This matters because climate policy that ignores territorial diversity will fail. Regions are not starting from the same place. 3️⃣ 𝗪𝗲 𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗷𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗿𝗶𝗲𝘀 • industrial specialisation (who produces what, and for whom) 🏭 • government quality and institutional capacity (can the region actually steer change?) 🏛️ • economic diversification (is there an alternative to the legacy carbon-intensive model?) 🔄 4️⃣ 𝗪𝗲 𝗼𝘂𝘁𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗼 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗮𝗹𝗹𝘆 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸 𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗮 𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗰𝗮𝗿𝗯𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗽 • exnovation: actively phasing out obsolete, fossil-based infrastructures and the rents attached to them 🧯 • diversification: creating new local economic activities to reduce dependence on carbon-heavy sectors 🌱 • leapfrogging: enabling certain regions to jump straight to advanced low-carbon systems — energy, mobility, infrastructure — without reproducing yesterday’s polluting stages 🚀 🎯 𝗣𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗰𝘆 𝗺𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗮𝗴𝗲 Decarbonisation in Europe will only work if it is place-sensitive. Regions with different industrial legacies, institutional capacity and social contracts need different transition pathways. “One-size-fits-all” climate policy will not deliver 2030 and 2050 targets. 🇪🇺 If you work on territorial policy, just transition, or regional industrial strategy, I’d be happy to exchange 💬 #decarbonisation #regionalpolicy #climatepolicy #justtransition #pathdependence #cohesion #EU 🌍 Andrés Rodríguez-Pose Bogdan Ibanescu SAGES project Vinko Mustra Norbert Petrovici

"The Role of Regional Energy Networks in a Decarbonised European Energy System." METIS 3 Study S7, commissioned by the European Commission, investigates the impact of regional (NUTS1) versus national (NUTS0) energy modeling on achieving decarbonization goals by 2050. The study considers four investment scenarios: Option 1: Limited to intra-national gas turbines and transmissions. Option 2: Includes cross-border hydrogen and electricity transmissions. Option 3: Adds investments in batteries and electrolysis. Option 4: Allows investments in wind and solar capacities. Key Findings 1. Increased Renewable Capacities Transitioning to NUTS1 enabled additional investments: • Onshore wind: +80 GW. • Offshore wind: +19 GW. • Solar PV: +29 GW (22 GW utility-scale, 7 GW rooftop). 2. Cost Reductions Total system costs decreased progressively across scenarios: • Gas turbine production savings: 358 TWh reduction. • Renewable investments (Option 4) led to lower gas and biomass turbine operation costs. • Option 3 investments in batteries and electrolysis reduced cross-border transmission costs. 3. Flexibility Solutions Flexibility investments enhanced system adaptability: • Electrolysis capacity: +27 GW, concentrated in renewable-rich regions like the UK, Finland, and Germany. • Battery storage: +25 GW. Electrolysis aligned with renewable surpluses, reducing hydrogen transport needs and operating costs. 4. Curtailment and Transmission Renewable curtailment reduced by 129 TWh due to smarter investments in Options 3 and 4. Cross-border electricity flows increased, while hydrogen exports decreased. 5. Regional Optimization Detailed modeling redistributed renewable investments: • Onshore wind capacity increased in Germany (+40 GW) and Finland but decreased in France. • Solar capacity saw minor adjustments, achieving more geographic balance. • Renewable investments followed areas with lower levelized costs of energy (LCOE) and better demand-supply correlation. 6. Hydrogen and Electricity Production Electrolysis production supported local renewable integration, with hydrogen output increasing in regions with higher renewable capacity. Power exports grew for countries like Spain and France, while Northern Europe also became a stronger exporting region. Impact of Regional Modeling Compared to NUTS0, NUTS1 modeling provided: • Higher RES and flexibility investments: • +80 GW onshore wind, +29 GW solar PV, +25 GW batteries, and +27 GW electrolysis. Enhanced system diversity reduced over-dimensioning of RES and improved cost efficiency. Better alignment between renewable production and demand. The study demonstrates the benefits of detailed regional modeling: 1. Enhanced Renewables Integration: Regional flexibility and renewable investments increase efficiency. 2. Cost Savings: Lower production costs and reduced reliance on fossil fuels. 3. Strategic Redistribution: Investments tailored to regional demand and supply dynamics.

Hotspot when Navigating the Energy Transition ! Where is the value in " co-optimizing gas and electricity network planning for decarbonization"??? As energy networks utilities navigate the climate change mitigation policies, Energy system modelers and planners must develop strategies for achieving cost-effective Coordinated planning for electricity and natural gas systems investments that address cross –sector operational constraints, competing demands for net-zero emissions fuels, and shifts in energy consumption patterns. In this context, and In order to rapidly integrate substantial productions from renewable energy sources like - renewable gases and renewable electricity sources- to meet those challenge, it is imperative for electricity and gas network utilities to co-optimize the planning and delivery of network infrastructure, ensuring predictability for customers as they navigate the complex transition to a sustainable energy future. Some Key Components of such effective co-optimization should cover: 1. Effective regulatory frameworks to afford market integration which is vital to create an attractive environment for effective investments. Transparent policies will facilitate the integration of renewable sources while ensuring reliability and affordability for consumers. 2. crucial and pivotal roles of "elec., gas" Transmission System Operators (TSOs) and Distribution System Operators (DSOs) must be coherent and aligned to collaboratively enhance capacity management. This synergy will optimize the flow of energy, accommodate fluctuating renewable generation, and maintain both grids dispatchability and stability. 3. increasing the renewable energy production capacity, makes managing this influx is crucial. therefore, Strategic co-optimized modeling and planning of both energy grids will ensure stable handling of peak loads and diverse energy sources without compromising service reliability. 4. Tariff Structures: Evolving inclusive tariff structures will play a significant role in incentivizing investments in both gas and electricity networks. Fair pricing mechanisms are essential to stimulate growth while promoting sustainable energy practices. 5. Investment Planning: Coordinated investment planning across gas and electricity sectors is critical. Prioritizing infrastructure projects that enhance integration and resilience will pave the way for a more robust energy affordability. 6. The Role of Hydrogen and Power-to-X (PTX): Hydrogen and PTX technologies represent a promising avenue for energy transition by leveraging adoption of such solutions to store excess renewable energy and provide flexibility to energy systems, as well as effectively contribute to decarbonization efforts. Indeed …co-optimizing gas and electricity network infrastructure is a critical and strategic job! #EnergyTransition #Decarbonization  #RenewableEnergy #Hydrogen #MarketRegulation #CapacityManagement #InvestmentPlanning

Promoting energy system integration through renewable electricity, decentralized assets and hydrogen The European Union has set ambitious goals to become climate neutral by 2050, requiring a profound transformation of its energy system. A key strategy to achieve this is enhancing energy system integration - the coordinated planning and operation of the energy system across multiple energy carriers, infrastructures, and consumption sectors. In July 2020, the European Commission published the EU Strategy for Energy System Integration, outlining a vision to create a more circular, flexible and decarbonized energy system. To assess the progress and remaining challenges in implementing this strategy, the Commission conducted a comprehensive study looking in-depth at electrification and decentralized renewables, renewable and low-carbon hydrogen, waste heat utilization, and cross-cutting issues like infrastructure, storage, digitalization and societal impacts. The study found that full decarbonization will require significant transformation and integration of the energy system across sectors. While recent EU policies are addressing some barriers, gaps remain and implementation is critical. Key challenges include: 1. Still significant technical, economic, legislative and societal barriers, with economic/financial ones considered most important 2. Cost gap, infrastructure and technology development issues for hydrogen, though targets seem achievable with the right policies 3. Major untapped potential but profitability and planning challenges for waste heat 4. Cross-cutting barriers in infrastructure planning, storage development, and digitalization requiring an integrated approach To accelerate progress, the study recommends: 1. Guidelines, dynamic pricing and emerging business models to enable smart electrification 2. Faster permitting, removal of subsidies, binding targets for renewable and low-carbon hydrogen 3. Clarity on waste heat contributions, support for planning, stricter provisions if needed 4. Mandates for TSO-DSO coordination, anticipatory investments, harmonized regulations for integrated infrastructure 5. Assessment of storage needs, lifting of barriers, promotion of standards Data sharing and cybersecurity research to enable digitalization 6. Monitoring indicators and attention to societal aspects in policies and studies In summary, an all-hands-on-deck approach with strengthened policies, multi-stakeholder coordination and smart investments can accelerate the energy transition through enhanced system integration in the coming decades. However, implementation of the enabling framework will be critical to realising the EU's 2050 climate neutrality objective.