Abel, J., R. Rich, J. Song, and J. Tracy (2016). The measurement and behaviour of uncertainty: evidence from the ecb survey of professional forecasters. Journal of Applied Econometrics 31 (3), 533–550.
Ambrocio, G. (2015). Rational exuberance booms and asymmetric business cycles. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 24.
Andrade, P. and H. Le Bihan (2013). Inattentive professional forecasters. Journal of Monetary Economics 60, 967–982.
Andrade, P., R. Crump, S. Eusepi, and E. Moench (2016). Fundamental disagreement. Journal of Monetary Economics 83, 106–128.
Bachmann, R. and G. Moscarini (2011). Business cycles and endogenous uncertainty. 2011 Meeeting Papers, Society for Economic Dynamics. 36.
Bachmann, R. and S. Elstner (2015). Firm optimism and pessimism. European Economic Review 79, 297–325.
Baker, S., N. Bloom, and S. Davis (2016). Measuring economic policy uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of Economics forthcoming.
- Basu, S. and B. Bundick (2017). Uncertainty shocks in a model of effeffect demand. Econometrica 85(3), 937–958.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Bekaert, G., M. Hoerova, and M. Lo Duca (2013). Risk, uncertainty and macroeconomic policy. Journal of Monetary Economics 60 (7), 771–788.
Benhima, K. and C. Poilly (2017). Do misperceptions about demand matter? theory and evidence. Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Dpartement d’Economtrie et d’Economie politique (DEEP) 17.08.
Berkowitz, J. (2001). Testing density forecasts, with applications to risk management. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 19 (4), 465–474.
Bernanke, B. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1), 85–106.
Bloom, N. (2009). The impact of uncertainty shocks. Econometrica 77 (3), 623–685.
Bloom, N. (2014). Fluctuations in uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives 28 (2), 153–176.
Bloom, N., S. Bond, and J. van Reenen (2007). Uncertainty and investment dynamics. Review of Economic Studies 74 (2), 391–415.
Boero, G., J. Smith, and K. Wallis (2008). Uncertainty and disagreement in economic prediction: the bank of england survey of external forecasters. The Economic Journal 118, 1107–1127.
Boero, G., J. Smith, and K. Wallis (2011). Scoring rules and survey density forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting 27 (2), 379–393.
Boero, G., J. Smith, and K. Wallis (2015). The measurement and characteristics of professional forecasters’ uncertainty. Journal of Applied Econometrics 30 (7), 1029–1046.
Bordo, M., J. Duca, and C. Koch (2016). Economic policy uncertainty and the credit channel: aggregate and bank level u.s. evdence over several decades. NBER Working Paper 22021.
Buch, C., M. Buchholz, and L. Tonzer (2015). Uncertainty, bank lending, and bank-level heterogeneiety. IMF Economic Review 63 (4), 919–954.
Caggiano, G., E. Castelnuovo, and N. Groshenny (2014). Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in u.s. recessions. Journal of Monetary Economics 67, 78–92.
Caldara, D., C. Fuentes-Albero, S. Gilchrist, and E. Zakrajsek (2016). The macroeconomic impact of financial and uncertainty shocks. European Economic Re27 view fothcoming.
Christoffersen, P. (1998). Evaluating interval forecasts. International Economic Review 39 (4), 841–862.
Coibion, O. and Y. Gorodnichenko (2012). What can survey forecasts tell us about information rigidities? Journal of Political Economy 120 (1), 116–159.
Coibion, O. and Y. Gorodnichenko (2015). Information rigidity and the expectations formation process: A simple framework and new facts. American Economic Review 105 (8), 2644–2678.
Corradi, V. and N. Swanson (2006). Predictive density evaluation. In G. Elliot, C. Granger, and A. Timmermann (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 1, pp. 197–284. Elsevier.
- Croushore, D. (2012). Forecast bias in two dimensions. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Working Papers 12-9.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Croushore, D. and T. Stark (2001). A real-time dataset for macroeconomists. Journal of Econometrics 105 (1), 111–130.
Davies, A. and K. Lahiri (1995). A new framework for analyzing survey forecasts using three-dimensional panel data. Journal of Econometrics 68, 205–227.
De Graeve, F. and A. Karas (2014, August). Evaluating theories of bank runs with heterogeneiety restrictions. Jounral of the European Economic Association 12(4), 969–996.
- Diebold, F., T. Gunther, and A. Tay (1998). Evaluating density forecasts. International Economic Review 39, 863–883.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Dieppe, A., R. Legrand, and B. van Roye (2016, July). The bear toolbox. ECB Working Paper Series No. 1934.
Dovern, J., U. Fritsche, and J. Slacalek (2012). Disagreement among forecasters in g7 countries. Review of Economics and Statistics 94(4), 1081–1096.
Engleberg, J., C. Manski, and J. Williams (2011). Assessing the temporal variation of macroeconomic forecasts by a panel of changing composition. Journal of Applied Econometrics 26 (7), 1059–1078.
Fajgelbaum, P., E. Schaal, and M. Taschereau-Dumouchel (2016). Uncertainty traps. The Quarterly Journal of Economics forthcoming.
Garcia, J. A. and A. Manzanares (2007). Reporting biases and survey results: Evidence from the european professional forecasters. ECB Working Paper Series No. 863.
Giacomini, R. and B. Rossi (2015). Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn’t in reduced-form and structural models. Annual Review of Economics 7, 207–229.
Giordani, P. and P. Soderlind (2003). Inflation forecast uncertainty. European Economic Review 47, 1037–1059.
Giordani, P. and P. Soderlind (2006). Is there evidence of pessimism and doubt in subjective distributions? implications for the equity premium puzzle. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 30, 1027–1043.
Hansen, B. (1994). Autoregressive conditional density estimation. International Economic Review 35 (3), 705–730.
Hirshleifer, D. (2001, August). Investor psychology and asset pricing. Journal of Finance 56(4), 1533–1597.
Jo, S. and R. Sekkel (2017). Macroeconomic uncertainty through the lens of professional forecasters. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics forthcoming.
Jurado, K., S. Ludvigson, and S. Ng (2015). Measuring uncertainty. American Economic Review 105 (3), 1177–1216.
Kenny, G., T. Kostka, and F. Masera (2015). Density characteristics and density forecast performance: a panel analysis. Empirical Economics 48, 1203–1231.
Lahiri, K. and X. Sheng (2010). Measuring forecast uncertainty by disagreement: the missing link. Journal of Applied Econometrics 25(4), 514–538.
Laster, D., P. Bennet, and I. S. Geoum (1999). Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts. Quarterly Journal of Economics 114 (1), 293–318.
Leduc, S. and Z. Liu (2016). Uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks. Journal of Monetary Economics 82, 20–35.
Lopez-Perez, V. (2015). Does uncertainty affect participation in the european central bank’s survey of professional forecasters? ECB Working Paper Series No. 1807.
Ludvigson, S., S. Ma, and S. Ng (2015). Uncertainty and business cycles: Exogenous impulse or endogenous response? NBER Working Paper 21803.
Ludvigson, S., S. Ma, and S. Ng (2017, March). Shock restricted structural vectorautoregressions. NBER Working Paper 23225.
Manski, C. (2017). Survey measurement of probabilistic macroeconomic expectations: progress and promise. NBER Working Paper 23418.
Mincer, J. and V. Zarnowitz (1969). The evaluation of economic forecasts. In J. Mincer (Ed.), Economic Forecasts and Expectations: Analysis of Forecasting Behavior and Performance. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Mitchell, J. and K. Wallis (2011). Evaluating density forecasts: forecast combinations, model mixtures, calibration and sharpness. Journal of Applied Econometrics. 26, 1023–1040.
Ordonez, G. (2013). The asymmetric effects of financial frictions. Journal of Political Economy 121 (5), 844–895.
Patton, A. and A. Timmerman (2010). Why do forecasters disagree? lessons from the term structure of cross-sectional dispersion. Journal of Monetary Economics 57 (7), 803–820.
Patton, A. and A. Timmerman (2012). Forecast rationality tests based on multihorizon bounds. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 30 (1), 1–17.
- Pesaran, M. H. and M. Weale (2006). Survey expectations. In G. Elliot, C. Granger, and A. Timmermann (Eds.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Volume 1, pp. 715–776. Elsevier.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Pries, M. (2016, December). Uncertainty-driven labor market fluctuations. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 73, 181–199.
Rabin, M. (1998, March). Psychology and economics. Journal of Economic Literature 36(1), 11–46.
Rich, R. and J. Tracy (2010). The relationships among expected inflation, disagreement, and uncertainty: Evidence from matched point and density forecasts. The Review of Economics and Statistics 92 (1), 200–207.
Romer, C. (1990). The great crash and the onset of the great depression. Quarterly Journal of Economics 105 (3), 597–624.
- Rossi, B. (2014). Density forecasts in economics, forecasting, and policymaking. Els Opuscles del CREI .
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Rossi, B. and T. Sekhoposyan (2015). Macroeconomic uncertainty indices based on nowcast and forecast error distributions. American Economic Review Papers & Proceedings 105 (5), 650–655.
Rossi, B. and T. Sekhposyan (2017). Macroeconomic uncertainty indices for the euro area and its individual member countries. Empirical Economics, 1–22.
Rossi, B., T. Sekhposyan, and M. Soupre (2016). Understanding the sources of macroeconomic uncertainty. Working Paper.
Scotti, C. (2016). Surprise and uncertainty indexes: Real-time aggregation of realactivity macro surprises. Journal of Monetary Economics 82, 1–19.
Straub, L. and R. Ulbricht (2017). Endogenous uncertainty and credit crunches.
Van Nieuwerburgh, S. and L. Veldkamp (2006). Learning asymmetries in real business cycles. Journal of Monetary Economics 53 (4), 753–772.
Veldkamp, L. (2005). Slow boom, sudden crash. Journal of Economic Theory 124, 230–257.
Wu, J. C. and F. D. Xia (2016). Measuring the macroeconomic impact of monetary policy at the zero lower bound. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 48(2-3), 253–291.
Zarnowitz, V. and L. Lambros (1987). Consensus and uncertainty in economic prediction. Journal of Political Economy 95 (3), 591–621.