create a website

In-sample tests of predictive ability: A new approach. (2012). McCracken, Michael ; Clark, Todd.
In: Journal of Econometrics.
RePEc:eee:econom:v:170:y:2012:i:1:p:1-14.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Cited: 20

Citations received by this document

Cites: 28

References cited by this document

Cocites: 50

Documents which have cited the same bibliography

Coauthors: 0

Authors who have wrote about the same topic

Citations

Citations received by this document

  1. Disaster risk matters in the bond market. (2022). Zhu, Xiaoneng ; Su, Hao ; Ying, Chengwei.
    In: Finance Research Letters.
    RePEc:eee:finlet:v:47:y:2022:i:pa:s1544612322000800.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  2. Bagging weak predictors. (2021). Hillebrand, Eric ; Wei, Wei ; Lukas, Manuel.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:37:y:2021:i:1:p:237-254.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  3. Bagging Weak Predictors. (2020). Hillebrand, Eric ; Wei, Wei ; Lukas, Manuel.
    In: Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers.
    RePEc:msh:ebswps:2020-16.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  4. Does modeling a structural break improve forecast accuracy?. (2020). Boot, Tom ; Pick, Andreas.
    In: Journal of Econometrics.
    RePEc:eee:econom:v:215:y:2020:i:1:p:35-59.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  5. The dollar, bank leverage and real economic activity: an evolving relationship. (2020). Shin, Hyun Song ; Mihaljek, Dubravko ; Lombardi, Marco ; Erik, Burcu.
    In: BIS Working Papers.
    RePEc:bis:biswps:847.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  6. Forecasting inflation in Latin America with core measures. (2019). Selaive, Jorge ; Pincheira, Pablo ; Nolazco, Jose ; Pincheira-Brown, Pablo.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:3:p:1060-1071.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  7. Financial conditions and purchasing managers indices: exploring the links. (2019). Shin, Hyun Song ; Mihaljek, Dubravko ; Lombardi, Marco ; Erik, Burcu.
    In: BIS Quarterly Review.
    RePEc:bis:bisqtr:1909g.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  8. A near optimal test for structural breaks when forecasting under square error loss. (2017). Boot, Tom ; Pick, Andreas.
    In: Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170039.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  9. Forecasting Inflation in Latin America with Core Measures. (2017). Selaive, Jorge ; Pincheira, Pablo ; Nolazco, Jose.
    In: MPRA Paper.
    RePEc:pra:mprapa:80496.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  10. Exchange Rate Predictability in Finite Samples. (2016). Ko, Hsiu-Hsin.
    In: The Japanese Economic Review.
    RePEc:spr:jecrev:v:67:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1111_jere.12097.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  11. Equity style allocation: A nonparametric approach. (2016). Fabozzi, Frank ; Subbiah, Mohan.
    In: Journal of Asset Management.
    RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:17:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1057_jam.2016.1.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  12. Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth. (2016). Petrella, Ivan ; Drechsel, Thomas ; Antolin-Diaz, Juan.
    In: Bank of England working papers.
    RePEc:boe:boeewp:0587.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  13. Exchange Rate Predictability in Finite Samples. (2016). Ko, Hsiu-Hsin.
    In: The Japanese Economic Review.
    RePEc:bla:jecrev:v:67:y:2016:i:3:p:361-378.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  14. A Kolmogorov-Smirnov Based Test for Comparing the Predictive Accuracy of Two Sets of Forecasts. (2015). Hassani, Hossein ; Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal.
    In: Econometrics.
    RePEc:gam:jecnmx:v:3:y:2015:i:3:p:590-609:d:53676.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  15. What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?. (2015). Yoldas, Emre ; Senyuz, Zeynep ; Chauvet, Marcelle.
    In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
    RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:52:y:2015:i:c:p:340-360.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  16. Following the Trend: Tracking GDP when Long-Run Growth is Uncertain. (2014). Petrella, Ivan ; Drechsel, Thomas ; Antolin-Diaz, Juan.
    In: CEPR Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10272.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  17. Bagging Weak Predictors. (2014). Hillebrand, Eric ; Lukas, Manuel.
    In: CREATES Research Papers.
    RePEc:aah:create:2014-01.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  18. What does financial volatility tell us about macroeconomic fluctuations?. (2013). Yoldas, Emre ; Senyuz, Zeynep ; Chauvet, Marcelle.
    In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-61.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  19. Do oil prices help forecast U.S. real GDP? the role of nonlinearities and asymmetries. (2012). Vigfusson, Robert ; Kilian, Lutz.
    In: International Finance Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:fip:fedgif:1050.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  20. Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP? The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries. (2012). Vigfusson, Robert ; Kilian, Lutz.
    In: CEPR Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8980.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

References

References cited by this document

  1. Ang, A. ; Bekaert, G. Stock return predictability: is it there?. 2007 Review of Financial Studies. 20 651-707

  2. Campbell, J.Y. ; Thompson, S.B. Predicting excess stock returns out of sample: can anything beat the historical average?. 2008 Review of Financial Studies. 21 1509-1531

  3. Clark, T.E. ; McCracken, M.W. The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks. 2005 Journal of Econometrics. 124 1-31

  4. Clark, T.E., McCracken, M.W., 2009. Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal forecast accuracy. Research Working Paper No. 09–11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

  5. de Jong, R.M. Central limit theorems for dependent heterogeneous random variables. 1997 Econometric Theory. 13 353-367

  6. DeGroot, M.H. Probability and Statistics. 1984 Addison-Wesley: Reading, MA
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  7. Eaton, M.L. Multivariate Statistics: A Vector Space Approach. 2007 Institute of Mathematical Statistics: Beachwood, OH
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  8. Goncalves, S. ; Kilian, L. Asymptotic and bootstrap inference for AR(∞) processes with conditional heteroskedasticity. 2007 Econometric Reviews. 26 609-641

  9. Goyal, A. ; Welch, I. A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium prediction. 2008 Review of Financial Studies. 21 1455-1508

  10. Hansen, B.E. The likelihood ratio test under nonstandard conditions: testing the Markov switching model of GNP. 1996 Journal of Applied Econometrics. 11 195-198

  11. Hansen, B.E., 2008. Generalized shrinkage estimators. Manuscript, University of Wisconsin.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  12. Hodrick, R.J. Dividend yields and expected stock returns: alternative procedures for inference and measurement. 1992 Review of Financial Studies. 5 357-386

  13. Imhof, J.P. Computing the distribution of quadratic forms in normal variables. 1961 Biometrika. 48 419-426
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  14. Inoue, A. ; Kilian, L. In–sample or out–of–sample tests of predictability? Which one should we use?. 2004 Econometric Reviews. 23 371-402
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  15. Inoue, A. ; Kilian, L. On the selection of forecasting models. 2006 Journal of Econometrics. 130 273-306

  16. Inoue, A., Kilian, L., 2004a. Bagging time series models. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4333.

  17. Judge, G.G. ; Griffiths, W.E. ; Carter Hill, R. ; Lutkepohl, H. ; Lee, T.C. The Theory and Practice of Econometrics. 1985 John Wiley and Sons: New York
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  18. Kilian, L. Exchange rates and monetary fundamentals: what do we learn from long-horizon regressions?. 1999 Journal of Applied Econometrics. 14 491-510

  19. Kirby, C. Measuring the predictable variation in stock and bond returns. 1997 Review of Financial Studies. 10 579-630

  20. Nelson, C.R. ; Kim, M.J. Predictable stock returns: the role of small sample bias. 1993 Journal of Finance. 48 641-661

  21. Newey, W.K. ; West, K.D. A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix. 1987 Econometrica. 55 703-708

  22. Pesaran, M.H. ; Timmermann, A. Predictability of stock returns: robustness and economic significance. 1995 Journal of Finance. 50 1201-1228

  23. Rapach, D. ; Wohar, M.E. In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining. 2006 Journal of Empirical Finance. 13 231-247

  24. Toro-Vizcarrondo, C. ; Wallace, T.D. A test of the mean square error criterion for restrictions in linear regression. 1968 Journal of the American Statistical Association. 63 558-572
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  25. Torous, W., Valkanov, R., 2000. Boundaries of predictability: noisy predictive regressions. Manuscript, UCLA.

  26. Trenkler, G. ; Toutenburg, H. Pre-test procedures and forecasting in the regression model under restrictions. 1992 Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference. 30 249-256
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  27. White, H. A heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator and direct test for heteroskedasticity. 1980 Econometrica. 48 817-838

  28. White, H. A reality check for data snooping. 2000 Econometrica. 68 1097-1127

Cocites

Documents in RePEc which have cited the same bibliography

  1. Deep Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns. (2021). Baruník, Jozef ; Babiak, Mykola.
    In: Papers.
    RePEc:arx:papers:2009.03394.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  2. What drives stock returns in Japan?. (2019). Liang, Samuel Xin.
    In: Financial Markets and Portfolio Management.
    RePEc:kap:fmktpm:v:33:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s11408-018-0322-7.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  3. Predicting exchange rate with commodity prices: New evidence from Westerlund and Narayan (2015) estimator with structural breaks and asymmetries. (2019). Salisu, Afees ; Emmanuel, Zachariah ; Adekunle, Wasiu ; Alimi, Wasiu A.
    In: Resources Policy.
    RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:62:y:2019:i:c:p:33-56.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  4. Aggregate Expected Investment Growth and Stock Market Returns. (2018). Li, Jun ; Yu, Jianfeng ; Wang, Huijun.
    In: ADBI Working Papers.
    RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0808.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  5. Long Run Returns Predictability and Volatility with Moving Averages. (2018). Ilomäki, Jukka ; Chang, Chia-Lin ; Ilomaki, Jukka ; Laurila, Hannu.
    In: Risks.
    RePEc:gam:jrisks:v:6:y:2018:i:4:p:105-:d:171554.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  6. Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts. (2018). Verona, Fabio ; Faria, Gonçalo.
    In: Journal of Empirical Finance.
    RePEc:eee:empfin:v:45:y:2018:i:c:p:228-242.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  7. Robust Bond Risk Premia. (2017). Hamilton, James ; Bauer, Michael.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23480.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  8. The Decline in Asset Return Predictability and Macroeconomic Volatility. (2017). Palomino, Francisco ; Qian, Charles ; Hsu, Alex.
    In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2017-50.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  9. CAN DEEP MACHINE LEARNING OUTSMART THE MARKET? A COMPARISON BETWEEN ECONOMETRIC MODELLING AND LONG- SHORT TERM MEMORY. (2016). Dezsi, Eva ; Nistor, Ioan Alin.
    In: Romanian Economic Business Review.
    RePEc:rau:journl:v:11:y:2016:i:4.1:p:54-73.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  10. Stock Return Prediction with Fully Flexible Models and Coefficients. (2016). Fu, Rong ; Byrne, Joseph.
    In: MPRA Paper.
    RePEc:pra:mprapa:75366.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  11. Interdependencies and Causalities in Coupled Financial Networks. (2016). Arai, Yuta ; Fujiwara, Yoshi ; Vodenska, Irena ; Iyetomi, Hiroshi ; Aoyama, Hideaki.
    In: PLOS ONE.
    RePEc:plo:pone00:0150994.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  12. Credit Expansion and Neglected Crash Risk. (2016). Xiong, Wei ; Baron, Matthew.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22695.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  13. The information content of the sentiment index. (2016). zhang, xiaoyan ; Xing, Yuhang ; Wang, Yanchu ; Sibley, Steven E.
    In: Journal of Banking & Finance.
    RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:62:y:2016:i:c:p:164-179.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  14. Forecasting stock market returns by summing the frequency-decomposed parts. (2016). Faria, Gonalo ; Verona, Fabio.
    In: Research Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2016_029.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  15. Low-beta investment strategies. (2015). Korn, Olaf ; Kuntz, Laura-Chloe.
    In: CFR Working Papers.
    RePEc:zbw:cfrwps:1517.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  16. Testing the lag structure of assets’ realized volatility dynamics. (2015). Camponovo, Lorenzo ; Audrino, Francesco ; Roth, Constantin .
    In: Economics Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:usg:econwp:2015:01.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  17. On the Fundamental Relation Between Equity Returns and Interest Rates. (2014). Choi, Jaewon ; Whitelaw, Robert F. ; Richardson, Matthew P..
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20187.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  18. Determining what drives stock returns: Proper inference is crucial: Evidence from the UK. (2014). Wohar, Mark ; Ma, Jun.
    In: International Review of Economics & Finance.
    RePEc:eee:reveco:v:33:y:2014:i:c:p:371-390.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  19. Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Prize Lecture). (2014). Shiller, Robert.
    In: Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:1936.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  20. Sequential Learning, Predictability, and Optimal Portfolio Returns. (2014). Polson, Nicholas ; Johannes, Michael ; Korteweg, Arthur.
    In: Journal of Finance.
    RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:69:y:2014:i:2:p:611-644.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  21. Speculative Asset Prices. (2014). Shiller, Robert.
    In: American Economic Review.
    RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:104:y:2014:i:6:p:1486-1517.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  22. The Economic Impact of Oil on Industry Portfolios. (2013). Casassus, Jaime ; Higuera, Freddy .
    In: Documentos de Trabajo.
    RePEc:ioe:doctra:433.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  23. Equity Premia Predictability in the EuroZone. (2013). Silva, Nuno Miguel Barateiro.
    In: GEMF Working Papers.
    RePEc:gmf:wpaper:2013-22..

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  24. Latent Fundamentals Arbitrage with a Mixed Effects Factor Model. (2012). Iquiapaza, Robert ; Bressan, Aureliano ; Gonalves, Andrei Salem .
    In: Brazilian Review of Finance.
    RePEc:brf:journl:v:10:y:2012:i:3:p:317-335.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  25. Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations. (2012). Zakrajšek, Egon ; Gilchrist, Simon ; Zakrajsek, Egon.
    In: American Economic Review.
    RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:4:p:1692-1720.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  26. On the Timing and Pricing of Dividends. (2012). van Binsbergen, Jules ; koijen, ralph ; Brandt, Michael .
    In: American Economic Review.
    RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:102:y:2012:i:4:p:1596-1618.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  27. On the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Stock Exchange of Thailand: New Evidence. (2011). Jiranyakul, Komain.
    In: MPRA Paper.
    RePEc:pra:mprapa:45583.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  28. Stock Return Predictability and Oil Prices. (2011). Casassus, Jaime ; Higuera, Freddy .
    In: Documentos de Trabajo.
    RePEc:ioe:doctra:406.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  29. Stock return predictability and variance risk premia: statistical inference and international evidence. (2011). Zhou, Hao ; Marrone, James ; Bollerslev, Tim ; Xu, Lai.
    In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2011-52.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  30. How does investor sentiment affect stock market crises?Evidence from panel data. (2011). Zouaoui, Mohamed ; Nouyrigat, Genevieve ; Beer, Francisca.
    In: Working Papers CREGO.
    RePEc:dij:wpfarg:1110304.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  31. US International Equity Investment and Past and Prospective Returns. (2011). Wongswan, Jon ; Warnock, Francis ; Thomas, Charles ; Curcuru, Stephanie E..
    In: American Economic Review.
    RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:101:y:2011:i:7:p:3440-55.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  32. Mutual Fund Performance: Measurement and Evidence. (2010). O'Sullivan, Niall ; Cuthbertson, Keith ; Nitzsche, Dirk.
    In: Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments.
    RePEc:wly:finmar:v:19:y:2010:i:2:p:95-187.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  33. Credit risk and Disaster risk. (2010). Gourio, Francois.
    In: 2010 Meeting Papers.
    RePEc:red:sed010:112.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  34. How does investor sentiment affect stock market crises? Evidence from panel data. (2010). Zouaoui, M. ; Nouyrigat, G. ; Beer, F..
    In: Post-Print.
    RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00534754.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  35. On the Economic Value of Return Predictability. (2010). Han, Yufeng.
    In: Annals of Economics and Finance.
    RePEc:cuf:journl:y:2010:v:11:i:1:p:1-33.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  36. Disaster risk and business cycles. (2009). Gourio, Francois.
    In: 2009 Meeting Papers.
    RePEc:red:sed009:1176.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  37. An Empirical Evaluation of the Long-Run Risks Model for Asset Prices. (2009). Yaron, Amir ; Bansal, Ravi ; Kiku, Dana.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15504.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  38. Disasters Risk and Business Cycles. (2009). Gourio, Francois.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15399.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  39. The stock market and aggregate employment. (2009). Zhang, Lu ; Chen, Long.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15219.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  40. The Term Structures of Equity and Interest Rates. (2009). Wachter, Jessica ; Lettau, Martin.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14698.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  41. Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence. (2009). Schmeling, Maik.
    In: Journal of Empirical Finance.
    RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:3:p:394-408.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  42. Investor flows and stock market returns. (2009). Zheng, Lu ; Boyer, Brian.
    In: Journal of Empirical Finance.
    RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:1:p:87-100.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  43. Predictable returns and asset allocation: Should a skeptical investor time the market?. (2009). Wachter, Jessica ; Warusawitharana, Missaka.
    In: Journal of Econometrics.
    RePEc:eee:econom:v:148:y:2009:i:2:p:162-178.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  44. The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?. (2009). Horvath, Roman.
    In: Economic Modelling.
    RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:26:y:2009:i:1:p:71-81.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  45. Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole. (2008). Santa-Clara, Pedro ; Ferreira, Miguel.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:14571.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  46. Predictive Systems: Living with Imperfect Predictors. (2008). Stambaugh, Robert ; Pastor, Lubos.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13804.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  47. Demographics and fluctuations in Dividend/Price. (2008). Favero, Carlo ; Gozluklu, Arie E. ; Tamoni, Andrea.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:igi:igierp:345.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  48. Investor sentiment and stock returns: Some international evidence. (2008). Schmeling, Maik.
    In: Hannover Economic Papers (HEP).
    RePEc:han:dpaper:dp-407.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  49. Estimating the Equity Premium. (2007). Campbell, John.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13423.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  50. Long-run risks and financial markets. (2007). Bansal, Ravi.
    In: Review.
    RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:2007:i:jul:p:283-300:n:v.89no.4.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Coauthors

Authors registered in RePEc who have wrote about the same topic

Report date: 2025-09-05 19:10:32 || Missing content? Let us know

CitEc is a RePEc service, providing citation data for Economics since 2001. Last updated August, 3 2024. Contact: Jose Manuel Barrueco.