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- Figure 2: Density of Age at Last Employment by Treatment Status 0 .1 .2 .3 Percentage 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 Age at Last Employment Contributed in 1966 Contributed in 1967 Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949. Notes: This figure plots the percentage of individuals by the age at which they finished their last employment.
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- Figure 3: Density of Pension Ages by Treatment Status (a) Age at Regular Pension 3HUFHQWDJH $JHDW/DVW(PSOR\PHQW &RQWULEXWHGLQ &RQWULEXWHGLQ Regular Pension (b) Age at Disability Pension 3HUFHQWDJH $JHDW/DVW(PSOR\PHQW &RQWULEXWHGLQ &RQWULEXWHGLQ Disability Pension (c) Age at Partial Pension 3HUFHQWDJH $JHDW/DVW(PSOR\PHQW &RQWULEXWHGLQ &RQWULEXWHGLQ Partial Pension Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949.
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- Figure 4: Density of Age at Death by Treatment Status 0 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 Percentage 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Death Age Contributed in 1966 Contributed in 1967 Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949.
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- Figure 6: Placebo Tests for Mortality: Using Other Cutoffs (a) Dying between 60 and 69 Years Old (b) Dying between 50 and 86 Years Old Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949.
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- Figure A2: Distribution of Month Started Contribution by Year of First Contribution (a) 1963 0 .05 .1 .15 Density 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
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- Figure A3: Density of Age at Regular Pension by Treatment Status with and without Correcting for Year of First Contribution (a) Age at Regular Pension, without Correction 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 Percentage 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 Age at Last Employment Contributed in 1966 Contributed in 1967 (b) Age at Regular Pension, with Correction 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 .6 .7 .8 Percentage 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 Age at Last Employment Contributed in 1966 Contributed in 1967 Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949.
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- Figure A8: Probability of Claiming Partial Pension by Years of Contribution 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 Percentage 8 13 18 23 28 33 38 43 48 Years of Contribution Partial Pension by Years of Contribution Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949. Notes: This figure plots the percentage of individuals that claim a partial pension based on the number of years they have contributed to the Social Security system.
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- Figure A9: Distribution by First Year of Contribution with and without Correction for Years 1973 to 1980 0 .1 .2 .3 Density 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 5 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 9
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- It was then further developed in the 1970s. In the last four decades, the system has experienced six important reforms, in 1985, 1997, 2002, 2007, 2011, and 2013. See Boldrin et al. (1999), Boldrin et al. (2004) and Garcı́a-Gómez et al.
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- Month Start Afiliation (b) 1964 0 .05 .1 .15 Density 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
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- Month Start Afiliation (c) 1965 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Density 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
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- Month Start Afiliation (d) 1966 0 .1 .2 .3 .4 .5 Density 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
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- Month Start Afiliation (e) 1967 0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 Density 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
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- Month Start Afiliation (f) 1968 0 .05 .1 .15 Density 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
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- Month Start Afiliation (g) 1969 0 .05 .1 Density 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2
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- Month Start Afiliation Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949.
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- Not Corrected Corrected Year Start Afiliation Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949.
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- Notes: These figures plot the distribution of individuals based on the month they started contributing to the Social Security system for the years 1963 to 1969.
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- Notes: This figure illustrates the statutory retirement age and the earliest possible early retirement age for individuals who contributed before and after 1 January 1967 as a function of their birth year. The blue dotted line shows that individuals who began contributing before 1 January 1967 can voluntarily retire after age reaching 60, independently of their birth year. The orange dashed line shows that those who started contributing after 1967 can only involuntary retire between ages 64 and 61, depending on their birth year. The solid grey line shows that the statutory retirement age remains at age 65 for all cohorts, regardless of the timing of their initial contributions.
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- Notes: This figure plots the share of workplace accidents per 1,000 workers between 2003 and 2019 for workers born between 1938 and 1949, categorized by the industry sector in which the workers were employed at the time of the accident. Figure A6: Classification of Industries by Psychosocial Exposure 0 2 4 6 8
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- Notes: This table presents summary statistics of our baseline sample, divided into individuals who commenced contributing in 1966 (Columns 1 to 3) and those who started in 1967 (Columns 4 to 5). Column 6 displays the wild-bootstrap p-value derived from regressing each variable on a dummy variable equal to 1 if the individual began contributing in 1967. These regressions include controls for year of birth, month of birth fixed effects, and gender (except in the case where gender is the dependent variable).
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- People in the control and treatment group face the same statutory retirement age of 65 years, with a minimum contribution period of eight years (further modified to 15 years after the 1997 reform). The only difference is early retirement age.
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- Table 1: Impact of the Reform on the Type of Pension and Age at Last Employment First Pension Claimed Age at Regular Pension Partial Pension Disability Insurance No Pension Last Employment (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Contributed in 1967-0.105*** 0.019*** 0.058** 0.028*** 0.443*** (0.033) (0.005) (0.021) (0.009) (0.066) [0.006] [0.003] [0.020] [0.006] [0.003] Month-Year Birth FE ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Controls ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Contributed 1966-1967 ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ Observations 26,102 26,102 26,102 26,102 26,102 R2 0.129 0.066 0.077 0.030 0.087 Mean Dep. Variable (Treated) 0.417 0.048 0.368 0.168 59.948 Mean Dep. Variable (Control) 0.557 0.035 0.280 0.129 59.478 Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949.
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- Table A1: Sample Selection Sample Selection Observations Dropped Mortality 60-64 in Obs. Dropped (1) (2) Contributed in 1967-0.011 0.011 (0.012) (0.010) [0.397] [0.287] Month-Year Birth FE ✓ ✓ Controls ✓ ✓ Contributed 1966-1967 ✓ ✓ Observations 32,743 5,099 R2 0.031 0.030 Mean Dep. Variable (Treated) 0.190 0.091 Mean Dep. Variable (Control) 0.212 0.060 Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949.
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- Tarkiainen, Lasse, Pekka Martikainen, Mikko Laaksonen, and Tapani Valkonen, “Trends in life expectancy by income from 1988 to 2007: decomposition by age and cause of death,” J Epidemiol Community Health, 2012, 66 (7), 573–578.
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- The estimation sample includes individuals that started contributing 12 months before and after 1 January 1967. All specifications control for gender, year of birth, and month of birth fixed effects. All standard errors are clustered at the birth year level, and wild-bootstrap p-values are reported in brackets. *** p<0.01, ** p<0.05, * p<0.1. Table A5: Impact of the Reform on the Type of Disability Type of Disability Severe or Absolute Partial or Professional (1) (2) Contributed in 1967 0.031** 0.027** (0.012) (0.011) [0.016] [0.025] Month-Year Birth FE ✓ ✓ Controls ✓ ✓ Contributed 1966-1967 ✓ ✓ Observations 26,102 26,102 R2 0.039 0.042 Mean Dep. Variable (Treated) 0.176 0.192 Mean Dep. Variable (Control) 0.131 0.149 Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949.
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- The solid green line shows the distribution of individuals who started contributing in 1966, while the red dashed line shows those who started contributing in 1967.
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- The solid red line shows the percentage of individuals who started contributing in 1966, while the green dashed line shows it for those who started contributing in 1967.
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- VWDUWB\HDU First Year of Contribution (b) With Correction Source: MCVL, cohorts 1938-1949.
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Zulkarnain, Alice and Matthew S Rutledge, “How does delayed retirement affect mortality and health?,” Center for retirement research at Boston College, CRR WP, 2018, 11.