1. A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation. (2013). Kudlyak, Marianna.
   In: Economic Quarterly.
   RePEc:fip:fedreq:00002.

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1. 3. Over long periods, both the establishment survey, Current Employment Statistics (CES), and the household survey, Current Population Survey (CPS), give similar results. However, since the household survey data come from a smaller sample, monthly changes are a bit more volatile relative to the establishment survey results. For a more detailed discussion of these differences, see Schweitzer and Ransom (1999).
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2. 4. Most recently confirmed in the March 2013 Summary of Economic Projections of the FOMC.
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3. 6. Our estimation uses the ”second” estimate for first-quarter GDP, based on BEA revisions released on May 30, 2013.
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4. 7. In order to come up with a number for employment gains, we use the most recent publicly available population projection produced by the BLS. BLS population projections can be accessed through http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_data_labor_force.htm. The BLS projections were last updated in February 2012. We normalize these projections to 2013:Q1 levels in all the exercises below.
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5. 8. We use the forecasts based on the latest release of the survey, dated May 10, 2013, which includes the next five quarters, through 2014:Q2. 9. This outlook is similar to the median in the March Summary of Economic Projections of the FOMC.
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6. Aaronson, Daniel, and Scott Brave, 2013. “Estimating the Trend in Employment Growth,” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed Letter, 2013-312.

7. Aaronson, Daniel, Jonathan Davis, and Luojia Hu, 2012. “Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate,” Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago Fed Letter, 2012-296.

8. Erceg, Christopher J., and Andrew T. Levin, 2013. “Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession,” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, paper.

9. Fallick, Bruce, and Jonathan Pingle, 2007. “A Cohort-Based Model of Labor Force Participation,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-09. Federal Reserve Board.

10. Footnotes 1. It should be noted that the statement also stresses maintaining price stability and examining the efficacy and costs of the asset purchases (see the FOMC statement, December 12, 2012). 2. See the transcript of Chairman Bernanke’s press conference at http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcpresconf20130320.
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11. Hotchkiss, Julie L., and Fernando Rios-Avila, 2013. “Identifying Factors behind the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate,” Business and Economic Research, 3(1). Macrothink Institute.

12. Pissarides, Christopher A., 2000. Equilibrium Unemployment Theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

13. Schweitzer, Mark E., and Jennifer Ransom, 1999. “Measuring Total Employment: Are a Few Million Workers Important?” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary.

14. Tasci, Murat, 2010. “The Ins and Outs of Unemployment in the Long Run: Unemployment Flows and the Natural Rate,” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, working paper no. 2010-17R (revised in November 2012).

15. Tasci, Murat, and Saeed Zaman, 2010. “Unemployment after the Recession: A New Natural Rate?” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Economic Commentary, no. 2010-11.

1. How does the dramatic rise of nonresponse in the Current Population Survey impact labor market indicators?. (2024). Wolcott, Erin ; Munro, David ; Bernhardt, Robert.
   In: Journal of Applied Econometrics.
   RePEc:wly:japmet:v:39:y:2024:i:3:p:498-512.

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2. Millennials: Maligned or miscreants?. (2022). Hotchkiss, Julie.
   In: Southern Economic Journal.
   RePEc:wly:soecon:v:88:y:2022:i:4:p:1248-1276.

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3. Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation. (2021). Fontaine, Idriss.
   In: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.
   RePEc:bla:obuest:v:83:y:2021:i:2:p:437-471.

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4. THE DECLINE IN THE U.S. LABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE: A LITERATURE REVIEW. (2021). Prados, María José ; Perezarce, Francisco.
   In: Journal of Economic Surveys.
   RePEc:bla:jecsur:v:35:y:2021:i:2:p:615-652.

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5. What Happened to the Great American Jobs Machine?. (2019). Richiardi, Matteo ; Nolan, Brian ; Kenworthy, Lane.
   In: INET Oxford Working Papers.
   RePEc:amz:wpaper:2019-04.

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6. Explaining the Decline in the U.S. Employment-to-Population Ratio: a Review of the Evidence. (2018). Abraham, Katharine ; Kearney, Melissa S.
   In: NBER Working Papers.
   RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24333.

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7. Female Labour Force Projections Using Microsimulation for Six EU Countries. (2018). Richardson, Ross ; Richiardi, Matteo ; Pacelli, Lia ; Poggi, Ambra.
   In: International Journal of Microsimulation.
   RePEc:ijm:journl:v11:y:2018:i:2:p:5-51.

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8. Computerization, Composition of Employment, and Structure of Wages. (2017). Santos, Manuel ; Sayed, Tarek ; Plant, Robert.
   In: Working Papers.
   RePEc:mia:wpaper:2017-09.

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9. Will US inflation awake from the dead? The role of slack and non-linearities in the Phillips curve. (2017). Albuquerque, Bruno ; Baumann, Ursel.
   In: Working Paper Series.
   RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20172001.

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10. The dynamics of the Italian labour force participation rate: determinants and implications for the employment and unemployment rate. (2017). De Philippis, Marta.
    In: Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers).
    RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_396_17.

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11. Labor force participation, wage rigidities, and inflation. (2016). Riggi, Marianna ; Nucci, Francesco.
    In: Temi di discussione (Economic working papers).
    RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1054_16.

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12. Labour force participation, wage rigidities, and inflation. (2015). Riggi, Marianna ; Nucci, Francesco.
    In: DSS Empirical Economics and Econometrics Working Papers Series.
    RePEc:sas:wpaper:20152.

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13. Understanding the 30 year Decline in Business Dynamism: a General Equilibrium Approach. (2015). Sahin, Aysegul ; Pugsley, Benjamin ; Karahan, Fatih.
    In: 2015 Meeting Papers.
    RePEc:red:sed015:1333.

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14. Aggregate Supply in the United States: Recent Developments and Implications for the Conduct of Monetary Policy. (2015). Wilcox, David ; Wascher, William ; Reifschneider, Dave .
    In: IMF Economic Review.
    RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:63:y:2015:i:1:p:71-109.

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15. Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation. (2015). Barnichon, Régis ; Figura, Andrew.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21252.

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16. Labor Market Slack and Monetary Policy. (2015). Levin, Andrew ; Blanchflower, David.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21094.

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17. Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation. (2015). Barnichon, Regis ; Figura, Andrew.
    In: NBER Chapters.
    RePEc:nbr:nberch:13601.

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18. Losing Ground: Demographic Trends in US Labor Force Participation. (2015). Rios-Avila, Fernando.
    In: Economics Policy Note Archive.
    RePEc:lev:levypn:15-7.

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19. Declining Labor Force Attachment and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation. (2015). Barnichon, Régis ; Figura, Andrew.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:bge:wpaper:728.

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20. Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function. (2015). Barnichon, Régis ; Figura, Andrew.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:bge:wpaper:727.

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21. Supply Side Aspects of Residential Housing for Low Income Earners in Kenya. (2014). Gachanja, James ; Vuluku, Gayline .
    In: Research in Applied Economics.
    RePEc:mth:raee88:v:6:y:2014:i:3:p:271-286.

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22. Adjusted EPOP as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength. (2014). Hotchkiss, Julie.
    In: Research in Applied Economics.
    RePEc:mth:raee88:v:6:y:2014:i:3:p:253-270.

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23. Demographic versus Cyclical Influences on US Labor Force Participation. (2014). Cline, William ; Nolan, Jared.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp14-4.

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24. On the causes of declines in the labor force participation rate. (2014). Fujita, Shigeru.
    In: Research Rap Special Report.
    RePEc:fip:fedprr:00012.

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25. The rise and fall of labor force participation in the United States. (2014). Bullard, James.
    In: Review.
    RePEc:fip:fedlrv:00014.

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26. The rise and fall of labor force participation in the U.S.. (2014). Bullard, James.
    In: Speech.
    RePEc:fip:fedlps:227.

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27. Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. (2014). Wascher, William ; Smith, Christopher ; Fallick, Bruce ; Cajner, Tomaz ; Aaronson, Stephanie ; Galbis-Reig, Felix .
    In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-64.

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28. Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects. (2014). Wascher, William ; Smith, Christopher ; Fallick, Bruce ; Cajner, Tomaz ; Aaronson, Stephanie ; Galbis-Reig, Felix .
    In: Working Papers (Old Series).
    RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1410.

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29. Adjusted Employment-to-Population Ratio as an Indicator of Labor Market Strength. (2014). Hotchkiss, Julie.
    In: FRB Atlanta Working Paper.
    RePEc:fip:fedawp:2014-08.

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30. Explaining US employment growth after the great recession: The role of output–employment non-linearities. (2014). Mignon, Valérie ; Ferrara, Laurent ; Chinn, Menzie.
    In: Journal of Macroeconomics.
    RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:118-129.

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31. Declining labor force attachment and downward trends in unemployment and participation. (2013). Barnichon, Régis ; Figura, Andrew.
    In: Economics Working Papers.
    RePEc:upf:upfgen:1397.

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32. Labor market heterogeneity and the aggregate matching function. (2013). Barnichon, Régis ; Figura, Andrew.
    In: Economics Working Papers.
    RePEc:upf:upfgen:1395.

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33. A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation. (2013). Kudlyak, Marianna.
    In: Economic Quarterly.
    RePEc:fip:fedreq:00002.

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34. Declining Labor Force Attachment and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation. (2013). Barnichon, Régis ; Figura, Andrew.
    In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-88.

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35. Aggregate supply in the United States: recent developments and implications for the conduct of monetary policy. (2013). Wilcox, David ; Wascher, William ; Reifschneider, Dave .
    In: Finance and Economics Discussion Series.
    RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2013-77.

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36. Will labor force participation bounce back?. (2013). Valletta, Robert ; Daly, Mary ; Bengali, Leila.
    In: FRBSF Economic Letter.
    RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:may13:n:2013-14.

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37. What constitutes substantial employment gains in today’s labor market?. (2013). Tasci, Murat ; Schweitzer, Mark.
    In: Economic Commentary.
    RePEc:fip:fedcec:y:2013:i:jun7:n:2013-07.

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38. Cyclical versus secular: decomposing the recent decline in U.S. labor force participation. (2013). Olivei, Giovanni ; Gumbau-Brisa, Fabià ; Barnes, Michelle.
    In: Public Policy Brief.
    RePEc:fip:fedbpb:y:2013:n:13-2.

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39. Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession. (2013). Levin, Andrew ; Erceg, Christopher.
    In: CEPR Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9668.

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40. The United States Labor Market: Status Quo or A New Normal?. (2012). Spletzer, James ; Lazear, Edward P..
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18386.

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41. The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal?. (2012). Spletzer, James ; Lazear, Edward P..
    In: Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole.
    RePEc:fip:fedkpr:y:2012:p:405-451.

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42. The economic outlook: global and domestic challenges to growth. (2012). Williams, John C..
    In: Speech.
    RePEc:fip:fedfsp:y:2012:i:june6.

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43. The economic outlook: global and domestic challenges to growth. (2012). Williams, John.
    In: Speech.
    RePEc:fip:fedfsp:105.

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44. A closer look at nonparticipants during and after the Great Recession. (2012). Rios-Avila, Fernando ; Pitts, Melinda ; Hotchkiss, Julie.
    In: FRB Atlanta Working Paper.
    RePEc:fip:fedawp:2012-10.

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45. The United States Labor Market: Status Quo or A New Normal?. (2012). Spletzer, James ; Lazear, Edward P..
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:cen:wpaper:12-28.

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