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Detecting recessions in the Great Moderation: a real-time analysis. (2008). Davig, Troy.
In: Economic Review.
RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2008:i:qiv:p:5-33:n:v.93no.4.

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  1. Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification. (2019). Davig, Troy ; Hall, Aaron Smalter.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:35:y:2019:i:3:p:848-867.

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  2. Recession and recovery across the nation: lessons from history. (2009). Wilkerson, Chad.
    In: Economic Review.
    RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2009:i:qii:p:5-24:n:v.94no.2.

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  1. ___________ 1999. Forecasting Inflation, Journal ofMonetary Economics, vol. 44, no. 2, pp. 293-335.
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  2. Bai, J., and P. Wang. 2008. Conditional Markov Chain and Its Application in Economic Time Series Analysis, New York University, mimeo.

  3. Blanchard, 0., andj. Simon. 2001. The Long and Large Decline in U.S. Output Volatility, Brookings Papers on EconomicActivity, no. 1, pp. 135-74.

  4. Boivin, J., and M.P. Giannoni. 2006. Has Monetary Policy Become More Effective ? The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 88, no. 3, pp. 445-62.

  5. Chauvet, M., and J. Piger. 2008. A Comparison of the Real-Time Performance of Business Cycle Dating Methods, Journal ofBusiness and Economic Statistics, vol. 26, pp. 42-49.

  6. Chauvet, M., and J.D. Hamilton. 2005. Dating Business Cycle Turning Points in Real Time, Van Dijk, Milas, and Rothman, eds, in Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, Elseviers Contributions to Economic Analysis Series, pp. 1-54.

  7. Evans, C.L., C.T. Liu, and G. Pham-Kanter. 2002. The 2001 Recession and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index: Identifring Business Cycle Turning Points, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives, Third Quarter, pp. 26-43.

  8. Hamilton, J.D. 1989. A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle, Econometrica, vol. 57, pp. 357-84.

  9. Justiniano, A., and G. Primiceri. 2006. The Time Varying Volatility of Macroeconomic Fluctuations, American Economic Review, forthcoming.

  10. Kim, Cj., and C.R. Nelson. 1999. Has the U.S. Economy Become More Stable ? A Bayesian Approach Based on a Markov-Switching Model of the Business Cycle,Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 81, no. 4, pp. 608-16.

  11. Perez-Quiros, G., and M. McConnell. 2000. Output Fluctuations in the United States: What Has Changed Since the Early 1980s? American Economic Review, vol. 90, pp. 1464-76.

  12. Stock, J., and M. Watson. 2003. Has the Business Cycle Changed? Evidence and Explanations, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, proceedings from Jackson Hole Symposium on Monetary Policy and Uncertainty: Adapting to a Changing Economy.
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  21. Detecting recessions in the Great Moderation: a real-time analysis. (2008). Davig, Troy.
    In: Economic Review.
    RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2008:i:qiv:p:5-33:n:v.93no.4.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

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