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Local deficits and local jobs: can U.S. statess stabilize their own economies?. (2013). Carlino, Gerald ; Inman, Robert.
In: Working Papers.
RePEc:fip:fedpwp:13-11.

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  1. Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from US States. (2023). Drautzburg, Thorsten ; Carlino, Gerald ; Inman, Robert ; Zarra, Nicholas.
    In: American Economic Review.
    RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:113:y:2023:i:3:p:701-37.

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  2. Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from U.S. States. (2021). Drautzburg, Thorsten ; Carlino, Gerald ; Inman, Robert P ; Zarra, Nicholas.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28425.

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  3. The quantitative effects of tax foresight: Not all states are equal. (2019). Herrera, Ana María ; Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar.
    In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
    RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:107:y:2019:i:c:6.

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  4. Not All Regions Are Alike: Evaluating the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Local and Aggregate Economies. (2018). Roberts, Michael ; Brucal, Arlan.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:hai:wpaper:201807.

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  5. DO BALANCED-BUDGET RULES INCREASE GROWTH?. (2016). Stone, Joe.
    In: Bulletin of Economic Research.
    RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:68:y:2016:i:1:p:79-89.

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  6. Prudent debt targets and fiscal frameworks. (2015). Hoeller, Peter ; Fournier, Jean-Marc ; Fall, Falilou ; Bloch, Debra.
    In: OECD Economic Policy Papers.
    RePEc:oec:ecoaab:15-en.

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  7. Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia. (2014). Pereira, Rui.
    In: The Annals of Regional Science.
    RePEc:spr:anresc:v:52:y:2014:i:2:p:583-595.

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  8. Do balanced-budget rules increase growth?. (2014). Stone, Joe.
    In: MPRA Paper.
    RePEc:pra:mprapa:57605.

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  9. Macro fiscal policy in economic unions: states as agents. (2014). Carlino, Gerald ; Inman, Robert P..
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:fip:fedpwp:14-20.

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  10. Okuns Law, Asymmetries and Regional Spillovers: Evidence from Virginia Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the District of Columbia. (2014). Pereira, Rui.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:cwm:wpaper:140.

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  1. 4. The simulations are for a deficit increase equal to one S.D. of OwnD(-1) for the decade, 2000-2007: $390/person. Simulations are for a deficit increase in FY2008 impacting jobs in calendar 2009. Only impact effects one year following the increase in state deficits are reported here. a) Deficits Per Capita
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  2. Arellano, M. and S. Bond, 1991. “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations,” The Review of Economic Studies 58, 277297.

  3. Auerbach, A. and Y. Gorodnichenko, 2012. “Output Spillovers from Fiscal Policy,” Working Paper 18578, NBER.

  4. Beetsma, R. and M. Giuliodori, 2011. “The Effects of Government Purchase Shocks: Review and Estimates for the EU,” Economic Journal 121, F4-F32.

  5. Bowsher, C., 2002. “On Testing Overidentifying Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models,” Economic Letters 77, 211-220.

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  7. Caselli, F., G. Esquivel, and F. Lefort, 1996. “Reopening the Convergence Debate: A New Look at Cross-Country Growth Empirics,” Journal of Economic Growth 1, 363-389.

  8. Craig, S. and R. Inman, 1982. “Federal Aid and Public Education: An Empirical Look at the New Fiscal Federalism,” Review of Economics and Statistics 64, 541-552.

  9. Crone, T., 2004. “An Alternative Definition of Economic Regions in the United States Based on Similarities in State Business Cycles,” Review of Economics and Statistics 87, 617-626.
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  10. Economic regions are defined as in Crone (2004). Crone’s economic regions differ from the BEA definitions by moving West Virginia into the Great Lakes region and Louisiana into the “Energy Belt” region, both from the BEA’s Southeast region. Minnesota is added to the Great Lakes region from the BEA’s Plains region. South Dakota and North Dakota are moved to a new Mountain/Northern Plains region from the BEA’s Plains region. Wyoming. Utah, and Colorado are moved to the “Energy Belt” region from BEA’s Rocky Mountain States region. Finally, Arizona is moved to the Far West region from the BEA’s Southwest region. The BEA’s Southwest region is now omitted. TABLE 2: State Own Deficits and State Rate of Job Growth† ( : Mean = .018 ; S.D. = .024)N N (OLS) (1) N (GMM) (2) N (GMM) (3) N (GMM) (4) N (GMM) (5) N (GMM) (6) OwnD(-1) (Mean = 276; S.D. = 500) -.000002 (.0000008)* .00004 (.00002)** .00004 (.00002)** .00003 (.00001)** .000005 (.000002)** -
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  11. GovServices(-1) (Mean = 2001; S.D. = 742) - - - - - -.000007 (.000009) -IOSpillovers (Mean = .0017; S.D. = .003) - - -2.004 (.937)** - - - -REGSpillovers (Mean = .0041; S.D. = .0067) .345 (.050)** - - .272 (.104)** .231 (.122)* .258 (.092)** .415 (.074)** Year Fixed YES YES YES YES NO YES YES IV F-Test for OwnD(-1) - 9.05 9.05 9.05 9.05 - 7.02 IV F-Test for OwnNetRev(-1) - - - - - 16.83 -IV F-Test for GovServices(-1) - - - - - 188.89 -Arellano-Bond Test: AR(2) - .240 .206 .348 .703 .995 .936 Hansen Exclusion Test - .366 .624 .518 .376 .510 .404 Difference-in-Hansen Test - .366 .458 .371 .282 .510 .280 †
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  12. Hamilton, J. D., 2003. “What Is an Oil Shock?” Journal of Econometrics 113, 363-398.

  13. Haughwout, A. and R. Inman, 2001. “Fiscal Policies in Open Cities with Firms and Households,” Regional Science and Urban Economics 31, 147-180.

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  17. Im, K. S., M. H. Pesaran, and Y. Shin, 2003. “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels,” Journal of Econometrics 115, 53-74.

  18. Jordá, O., 2005. “Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections,” American Economic Review 95, 161-182.

  19. Oates, Wallace E., 1972. Fiscal Federalism. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich, New York.
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  20. Pauly, M., 1970. “Optimality, ‘Public’ Goods, and Local Governments: A General Theoretical Analysis,” Journal of Political Economy, 78, 572-585.

  21. Ramey, V., 2011. “Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?,” Journal of Economic Literature, 49, 673-685.

  22. Romer, C. and D. Romer, 2010. “The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks,” American Economic Review 110, 763-801.

  23. Roodman, D., 2008. “A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments,” Working Paper 125, Center for Global Development.
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  24. Stock, J., J. Wright, and M. Yogo, 2002. “A Survey of Weak Instruments and Weak Identification in Generalized Methods of Moments,” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20, 518-529.

  25. Wildasin, D., 2000. “Factor Mobility and Fiscal Policy in the EU: Policy Issues and Analytical Approaches,” Economic Policy, 15, 339-378.

  26. Wilson, D., 2012. “Fiscal Spending Jobs Multipliers: Evidence from the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4, 251-282.

  27. Windmeijer, F., 2005. “A Finite Sample Correction for the Variance of Linear Efficient Two-step GMM Estimators,” Journal of Econometrics, 126, 25-51. TABLE 1: Economic Regions[ ECONOMIC REGIONS MEMBER STATES New England Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut Mideast New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland Southeast Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas Great Lakes West Virginia, Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota Plains Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa Mountain/Northern Plains South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho Energy Belt Louisiana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Texas, Oklahoma, New Mexico Far West Arizona, California, Nevada, Oregon, Washington [

  28. ZAID(-1) (Mean = 476; S.D. = 253) .000006 (.000002)** -.00006 (.00004) -.00005 (.00004) -.00004 (.00002)* .00002 (.00005) -.00006 (.00003)* OwnNetRev(-1) (Mean = 2537; S.D. = 915) - - - - - -.00004 (.00002)** GovServices(-1) (Mean = 2001; S.D. = 742) - - - - - .00003 (.00003) IOSpillovers (Mean = .0067; S.D. = .014) - - .093 (.078) - - -REGSpillovers (Mean = .017; S.D. = .023) .634 (.033)** - - .685 (.091)** .887 (.050)** .676 (.609) Year Fixed YES YES YES YES NO YES IV F-Test for OwnD(-1) - 10.06 10.06 10.06 10.06 -IV F-Test for OwnNetRev(-1) - - - - - 13.58 IV F-Test for GovServices(-1) - - - - - 164.29 Arellano-Bond Test: AR(2) - .479 .389 .329 .312 .359 Hansen Exclusion Test - .732 .651 .785 .733 .515 Difference-in-Hansen Test - .765 .714 .745 .635 .515 †
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