- (e) The independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED measures the unexpected element of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. This variable is taken from Kuttner (2001). (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
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- (e) The independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED measures the unexpected element of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. This variable is taken from Kuttner (2001). (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
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- (e) The independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED measures the unexpected element of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. This variable is taken from Kuttner (2001). (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
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- (e) The independent variables FFT-EXPECTED and FFT-UNEXPECTED measure the expected and the unexpected element, respectively, of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. Both variables are taken from Kuttner (2001). The independent variable FFT-ACTUAL is the actual Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
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- (e) The independent variables FFT-EXPECTED and FFT-UNEXPECTED measure the expected and the unexpected element, respectively, of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. Both variables are taken from Kuttner (2001). The independent variable FFT-ACTUAL is the actual Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
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- (e) The independent variables FFT-EXPECTED and FFT-UNEXPECTED measure the expected and the unexpected element, respectively, of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. Both variables are taken from Kuttner (2001). The independent variable FFT-ACTUAL is the actual Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
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- Data Sources: Federal Funds Target Rate Data: From Kuttner (2001). Exchange Rate Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Noon Eastern Time). Bundesbank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan Data: From official central bank sources. U.S. Macroeconomic Surprise Data: From Money Market Services and Bloomberg (the surprise is measures as the difference between actual announcement and median survey value).
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Kim, Soyoung, and Nouriel Roubini. (2000). “Exchange Rate Anomalies in the Industrial Countries: A Solution with a Structural VAR Approach.†Journal of Monetary Economics 45, 561-586.
Krueger, Joel T., and Kenneth N. Kuttner. (1996). “The Federal Funds Futures Rate as a Predictor of Federal Reserve Policy.†Journal of Futures Markets 16, 865-879.
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- TABLE 3 DEM/USD: Summary of Same-Day and Delayed Exchange Rate Responses to the Unexpected Change in The Federal Funds Target Rate Daily Data: 27 March 1989 to 31 December 1998 Each row below is associated with a separate regression model. Only the point estimate and the associated standard error for the independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED are shown, regardless of whether or not the control variables are significant.
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- TABLE 5 JPY/USD: Summary of Same-Day and Delayed Exchange Rate Responses to the Unexpected Change in The Federal Funds Target Rate Daily Data: 27 March 1989 to 4 April 2001 Each row below is associated with a separate regression model. Only the point estimate and the associated standard error for the independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED are shown, regardless of whether or not the control variables are significant.
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- TABLE 7 GBP/USD: Summary of Same-Day and Delayed Exchange Rate Responses to the Unexpected Change in The Federal Funds Target Rate Daily Data: 27 March 1989 to 4 April 2001 Each row below is associated with a separate regression model. Only the point estimate and the associated standard error for the independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED are shown, regardless of whether or not the control variables are significant.
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