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Monetary Policy News and Exchange Rate Responses: Do Only Surprises Matter?. (2005). Fatum, Rasmus ; Scholnick, Barry.
In: EPRU Working Paper Series.
RePEc:kud:epruwp:05-14.

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  1. Negative Interest Rate Policy and the Influence of Macroeconomic News on Yields. (2019). Yamamoto, Yohei ; Hara, Naoko ; Fatum, Rasmus.
    In: Globalization Institute Working Papers.
    RePEc:fip:feddgw:354.

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  2. IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC SURPRISES ON THEBRAZILIAN YIELD CURVE AND EXPECTED INFLATION. (2014). Moura, Marcelo ; Gaio, Rafael L..
    In: Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting].
    RePEc:anp:en2012:051.

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  1. (e) The independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED measures the unexpected element of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. This variable is taken from Kuttner (2001). (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
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  2. (e) The independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED measures the unexpected element of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. This variable is taken from Kuttner (2001). (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  3. (e) The independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED measures the unexpected element of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. This variable is taken from Kuttner (2001). (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  4. (e) The independent variables FFT-EXPECTED and FFT-UNEXPECTED measure the expected and the unexpected element, respectively, of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. Both variables are taken from Kuttner (2001). The independent variable FFT-ACTUAL is the actual Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  5. (e) The independent variables FFT-EXPECTED and FFT-UNEXPECTED measure the expected and the unexpected element, respectively, of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. Both variables are taken from Kuttner (2001). The independent variable FFT-ACTUAL is the actual Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  6. (e) The independent variables FFT-EXPECTED and FFT-UNEXPECTED measure the expected and the unexpected element, respectively, of the Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. Both variables are taken from Kuttner (2001). The independent variable FFT-ACTUAL is the actual Federal Funds Target rate change on FOMC dates. (f) The control variables measure the surprise element of US macroeconomic announcements concerning CPI (CPI-UNEXP), Industrial Production (IP-UNEXP), PPI (PPI-UNEXP), Balance of Trade (TRADE-UNEXP) and Unemployment (UNEM-UNEXP).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  7. Andersen, Torben G., Tim Bollerslev, Francis X. Diebold, and Clara Vega. (2003). “Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange.” American Economic Review 93, 38-62.

  8. Barro, Robert J. (1977). “Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States.” American Economic Review 67, 101-115.

  9. Barro, Robert J. and Zvi Hercowitz. (1980). “Money Stock Revisions and Unanticipated Money Growth.” Journal of Monetary Economics 6, 257-267.
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  10. Bernanke, Ben S., and Kenneth N. Kuttner. (2005). “What Explains the Stock Market’s Reaction to Federal Reserve Policy?“ Journal of Finance 60, 1221-1258.

  11. Bonser-Neal, Catherine, and Glenn Tanner. (1996). Central Bank Intervention and the Volatility of Foreign Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Options Market. Journal of International Money and Finance 15, 853-878.

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  15. Craine, Roger, and Vance Martin. (2003). “Monetary Policy Shocks and Security Market Responses.” University of California, Berkeley, manuscript.
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  16. Data Sources: Federal Funds Target Rate Data: From Kuttner (2001). Exchange Rate Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Noon Eastern Time). Bundesbank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan Data: From official central bank sources. U.S. Macroeconomic Surprise Data: From Money Market Services and Bloomberg (the surprise is measures as the difference between actual announcement and median survey value).
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  17. Eichenbaum, Martin, and Charles L. Evans. (1995). “Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110, 975-1009.

  18. Engel, Charles, and Kenneth D. West. (2005). “Exchange Rates and Fundamentals.” Journal of Political Economy 113, 485-517.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  19. Evans, Martin D.D. and Richard K. Lyons. (2005). “Do Currency Markets Absorb News Quickly?” Journal of International Money and Finance 24, 197-217.

  20. Fatum, Rasmus, and Barry Scholnick. (2003). “Do Exchange Rates Respond to Day-to-Day Changes in Monetary Policy Expectations When No Monetary Policy Changes Occur?” SCCIE Working Paper No. 03-8 and forthcoming in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  21. Faust, Jon and John H. Rogers. (2003). “Monetary Policy’s Role in Exchange Rate Behavior.” Journal of Monetary Economics 50, 1403-1424.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  22. Faust, Jon, John H. Rogers, Eric Swanson, and Jonathan H. Wright. (2003). “Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on Exchange Rates Using High Frequency Data.” Journal of the European Economic Association 1, 1031-1057.

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  25. Hausman, Jerry A. (1978). “Specification Tests in Econometrics. Econometrica 46, 1251-1271.

  26. Hausman, Jerry A. (1983). “Specification and Estimation of Simultaneous Equation Models.” In Handbook of Econometrics Vol. I, edited by Zvi Griliches and Michael D. Intriligator. Amsterdam: North Holland.
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  27. Kim, Soyoung, and Nouriel Roubini. (2000). “Exchange Rate Anomalies in the Industrial Countries: A Solution with a Structural VAR Approach.” Journal of Monetary Economics 45, 561-586.

  28. Krueger, Joel T., and Kenneth N. Kuttner. (1996). “The Federal Funds Futures Rate as a Predictor of Federal Reserve Policy.” Journal of Futures Markets 16, 865-879.

  29. Kuttner, Kenneth N. (2001). “Monetary Policy Surprises and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Fed Funds Futures Market.” Journal of Monetary Economics 47, 523-544.

  30. Lewis, Karen K. (1995). “Are Foreign Exchange Intervention and Monetary Policy Related, and Does It Really Matter?” Journal of Business 68, 185-214.

  31. Mishkin, Frederic S. (1982). “Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation.” Journal of Political Economy 90, 22-51.
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  32. Newey, Whitney K., and Kenneth .D. West. (1987). “A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix.” Econometrica 55, 703-708.

  33. Piazzesi, Monika, and Eric T. Swanson. (2004). “Futures Prices as Risk-Adjusted Forecasts of Monetary Policy.” NBER Working Paper 10547.

  34. Sack, Brian P. (2002). “Extracting the Expected Path of Monetary Policy from Futures Rates.” Journal of Futures Markets 34, 733-754.
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  35. Sack, Brian P., Eric T. Swanson, and Refet S. Gurkaynak. (2002). “Market-based Measures of Monetary Policy Expectations.” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System FEDS Working Paper 2002-40.

  36. Simpson, Marc W.; Sanjay Ramchander and Mukesh Chaudry (2005). “The Impact of Macroeconomic Surprises on Spot and Forward Foreign Exchange Markets.” Journal of International Money and Finance 24, 693-718.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  37. TABLE 3 DEM/USD: Summary of Same-Day and Delayed Exchange Rate Responses to the Unexpected Change in The Federal Funds Target Rate Daily Data: 27 March 1989 to 31 December 1998 Each row below is associated with a separate regression model. Only the point estimate and the associated standard error for the independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED are shown, regardless of whether or not the control variables are significant.
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  38. TABLE 5 JPY/USD: Summary of Same-Day and Delayed Exchange Rate Responses to the Unexpected Change in The Federal Funds Target Rate Daily Data: 27 March 1989 to 4 April 2001 Each row below is associated with a separate regression model. Only the point estimate and the associated standard error for the independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED are shown, regardless of whether or not the control variables are significant.
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  39. TABLE 7 GBP/USD: Summary of Same-Day and Delayed Exchange Rate Responses to the Unexpected Change in The Federal Funds Target Rate Daily Data: 27 March 1989 to 4 April 2001 Each row below is associated with a separate regression model. Only the point estimate and the associated standard error for the independent variable FFT-UNEXPECTED are shown, regardless of whether or not the control variables are significant.
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