- [1] Ansolabehere, Stephen, John Mark Hansen, Shigeo Hirano, and James M. Snyder Jr. The incumbency advantage in US primary elections. Electoral Studies 26, no. 3 (2007): 660-668. [2] Barbieri, Stefano and Serena, Marco. Biasing Dynamic Contests Between Ex-Ante Symmetric Players.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
[10] Gauriot, Romain, and Lionel Page. Does success breed success? A quasi-experiment on strategic momentum in dynamic contests. The Economic Journal 129, no. 624 (2019): 3107-3136.
- [11] Gelman, Andrew, and Gary King. Estimating incumbency advantage without bias. American journal of political science (1990): 1142-1164.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
[12] Gerber, Elisabeth R., Rebecca B. Morton, and Thomas A. Rietz. Minority representation in multimember districts. American Political Science Review (1998): 127-144. [13] Greenwald, Anthony G., Colin Tucker Smith, Nilakanta Sriram, Yoav Bar-Anan, and Brian A. Nosek.
[14] Hinnosaar, Toomas. Optimal sequential contests. Available at SSRN 3119014 (2019). 27 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3635360 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3635360 [15] Kahana, Nava, and Doron Klunover. Sequential lottery contests with multiple participants. Economics Letters 163 (2018): 126-129.
[16] Klumpp, Tilman, and Mattias K. Polborn. Primaries and the New Hampshire eect. Journal of Public Economics 90, no. 6-7 (2006): 1073-1114.
[17] Konrad, Kai A. Strategy and dynamics in contests. New York: Oxford University Press. (2009).
[18] Konrad, Kai A., and Dan Kovenock. Multi-battle contests. Games and Economic Behavior 66, no. 1 (2009): 256-274.
- [19] Kornacki, Steve. Journey to power: The history of black voters, 1976 to 2020. NBC News, July 29, (2019).
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
[20] Krumer, Alex. Best-of-two contests with psychological eects. Theory and decision 75, no. 1 (2013): 85-100.
- [21] Leonhardt, David. Iowa Should Never Go First Again: The current system is a form of white privilege that warps the process, New York Times, Jan. 26, (2020). <https://nyti.ms/2GmpGCH>.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
[22] Malueg, David A., and Andrew J. Yates. Equilibria and comparative statics in two-player contests. European Journal of Political Economy 21, no. 3 (2005): 738-752.
[23] Malueg, David A., and Andrew J. Yates. Testing contest theory: evidence from best-of-three tennis matches. The Review of Economics and Statistics 92, no. 3 (2010): 689-692.
[24] Mago, Shakun D., Roman M. Sheremeta, and Andrew Yates. Best-of-three contest experiments: Strategic versus psychological momentum. International Journal of Industrial Organization 31, no. 3 (2013): 287-296.
- [25] Mago, Shakun D., and Laura Razzolini. Best-of-…ve contest: An experiment on gender dierences. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 162 (2019): 164-187.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
[26] Mago, Shakun D., and Roman M. Sheremeta. New Hampshire Eect: behavior in sequential and simultaneous multi-battle contests. Experimental Economics 22, no. 2 (2019): 325-349.
- [27] Matsubayashi, Tetsuya, and Michiko Ueda. Political knowledge and the use of candidate race as a voting cue. American Politics Research 39, no. 2 (2011): 380-413.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
[28] Mayer, William G. The Basic Dynamics of the Contemporary Nomination Process; An Expanded View, in Mayer, William G. (Ed.), The making of the presidential candidates 2004, Rowman & Little…eld. (2004). 28 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3635360 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3635360 [29] Meier, Philippe, Raphael Flepp, Maximilian Rüdisser, and Egon P. Franck. Investigating the conditions for psychological momentum in the …eld: Evidence from men’ s professional tennis. Available at SSRN 3438123 (2019).
[30] Meyer, Margaret A. Learning from coarse information: Biased contests and career pro…les. The Review of Economic Studies 58, no. 1 (1991): 15-41.
[31] Morton, Rebecca B., and Kenneth C. Williams. Information asymmetries and simultaneous versus sequential voting. American political science Review (1999): 51-67.
- [32] Moshary, Sarah. Price discrimination in political advertising: Evidence from the 2012 presidential election. The RAND Journal of Economics 51, no. 3 (2019): 615-649.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- [33] Page, Lionel, and John Coates. Winner and loser eects in human competitions. Evidence from equally matched tennis players. Evolution and Human Behavior 38, no. 4 (2017): 530-535.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- [34] Page, Lionel, and Katie Page. The second leg home advantage: Evidence from European football cup competitions. Journal of Sports Sciences 25, no. 14 (2007): 1547-1556.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- [35] Parks, Gregory S., Jerey J. Rachlinski, and Richard A. Epstein. Implicit Race Bias and the 2008 Presidential Election: Much Ado about Nothing. U. Pa. L. Rev. PENNumbra 157 (2008): 210.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- [36] Pastor, Manuel. Nevada’ s changing demographics are a road map showing Democrats how to win. USA Today, Feb. 17, (2020). <https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/02/17/democrats2020 -nevada-latinos-minorities-how-to-win-column/4780245002>.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- [37] Smith, Steven S., and Melanie J. Springer, eds. Reforming the presidential nomination process. Brookings Institution Press, 2009.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
[38] Strumpf, Koleman S. Does government decentralization increase policy innovation?. Journal of Public Economic Theory 4, no. 2 (2002): 207-241.
- [39] Touchberry, Ramsey. Nevada, the …rst majority-minority state in the primary, will test white democratic candidates. Newsweek, Feb. 22, (2020). <https://www.newsweek.com/nevada-…rst-majorityminority -state-primary-will-test-white-democratic-candidates-1488449>.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- [40] Van de Rijt, Arnout, Soong Moon Kang, Michael Restivo, and Akshay Patil. Field experiments of success-breeds-success dynamics. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111, no. 19 (2014): 6934-6939.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- [41] Zeckhauser, Richard J., and Derek Leebaert, eds. What Role for Government?: Lessons from Policy Research. Duke Press Policy Studies, 1983. 29 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3635360 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3635360 [42] Zurcher, Anthony. South Carolina primary: Is this Joe Biden’ s big comeback? BBC News: Feb. 28, (2020). https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51668258 30 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3635360 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3635360 Appendix A: Proofs of Results in Sections 3 and 4 Throughout this appendix, we repeatedly use the following lemma, based on Proposition 1 in Malueg and Yates (2005), to speed up the computation of equilibrium values for each node. Following their notation, we denote by p1 the partial derivative of p with respect to its …rst argument. Using the functional form of p in (1), note that p1 (A; B) = 1 A
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- [5] Cox, Gary W., and Jonathan N. Katz. Why did the incumbency advantage in US House elections grow?. American journal of political science (1996): 478-497.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
[6] Descamps, Ambroise, Changxia Ke, and Lionel Page. How success breeds success. No. 053. QUT Business School, (2018).
[7] Epstein, Gil S., and Odelia Heizler-Cohen. Minority Groups and Success in Election Primaries. (2018).
- [8] Fraga, Bernard L., and Hans JG Hassell. Are Minority and Women Candidates Penalized by Party Politics? Race, Gender, and Access to Party Support. Political Research Quarterly (2018): 1065912920913326.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
[9] Fu, Qiang, Changxia Ke, and Fangfang Tan. “Success breeds success”or “Pride goes before a fall” ?: Teams and individuals in multi-contest tournaments. Games and Economic Behavior 94 (2015): 57-79.
- Implicit race attitudes predicted vote in the 2008 US presidential election. Analyses of Social Issues and Public Policy 9, no. 1 (2009): 241-253.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Working Paper of the Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance No. 2018-06. (2020) [3] Broockman, David E., and Evan J. Soltas. A natural experiment on discrimination in elections. Journal of Public Economics 188 (2020): 104201. [4] Buell, Emmett H., and William G. Mayer, eds. Enduring controversies in presidential nominating politics.