- - Estimated model: ð‘“ð‘–ð‘¡ = ∑ ð›¼ð‘—ð‘“ð‘–,ð‘¡âˆ’ð‘— + ð›½ð¸ð¿ð¸ð¶ð‘‡ð‘–ð‘¡ + ð‘¿â€²ð‘–ð‘¡ðœ¹ ð‘ ð‘—=1 + ðœ‡ð‘– + ðœ€ð‘–ð‘¡ - Fixed Effects estimations. Sample period: 1975-2010. - The control variables were lagged one period in order to avoid simultaneity/endogeneity problems.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- - System-GMM estimations for dynamic panel-data models. Sample period: 1975-2010.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Acosta-Ormaechea, S. and Yoo, J. (2012). Tax composition and growth: A broad cross-country perspective. IMF Working Paper 12/257.
Aidt, T., Veiga, F. and Veiga, L. (2011). Election results and opportunistic policies: A new test of the rational political business cycle model. Public Choice 148: 21–44.
Alesina, A. and Tabellini, G. (1990). A positive theory of fiscal deficits and government debt. The Review of Economic Studies 57(3): 403-414.
Alt, J. and Lassen, D. (2006). Transparency, political polarization, and political budget cycles in OECD countries. American Journal of Political Science 50(3): 530–550.
Arellano, M., Bond, S., 1991. Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The Review of Economic Studies. 58, 277-297.
Arellano, M., Bover, O., 1995. Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of errorcomponent models. Journal of Econometrics. 68, 29-51.
- Beck, T., Clarke, G., Groff, A., Keefer, P., Walsh, P. (2001). New tools in comparative political economy: the database of political institutions. World Bank Economic Review 15, 165–176.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Block, S. (2002). Elections, electoral competitiveness, and political budget cycles in developing countries. Harvard University CID Working Paper No. 78.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Blumkin, T., Ruffle, B.J. and Ganun, Y. (2012). Are income and consumption taxes ever really equivalent? Evidence from a real-effort experiment with real goods. European Economic Review 56: 1200-19. 24 Bracco, E., Porcelli, F. and Redoano, M. (2013). Political competition, tax salience and accountability: Theory and some evidence from Italy. Centre for Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy Working Paper 126.
Blundell, R. and Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics 87: 115-143.
Brender, A. and Drazen, A. (2005). Political budget cycles in new versus established democracies. Journal of Monetary Economics 52(7): 1271-1295.
Brender, A. and Drazen, A. (2013). Elections, leaders, and the composition of government spending. Journal of Public Economics 97: 18-31.
- Chang, E. (2008). Electoral Incentives and Budgetary Spending: Rethinking the Role of Political Institutions. The Journal of Politics 70(4): 1086–1097.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Cheibub, J.A., Gandhi, J. and Vreeland, J.R. (2010). Democracy and dictatorship revisited. Public Choice 143, 67–101.
Chetty, R., Looney, A. and Kroft, K. (2009). Salience and taxation: Theory and evidence.
de Haan, J. and Klomp, J. (2013). Conditional political budget cycles: a review of recent evidence. Public Choice 157: 387-410.
Drazen, A. and Eslava, M. (2010). Electoral manipulation via voter-friendly spending: Theory and evidence. Journal of Development Economics 92: 39-52.
Efthyvoulou, G. (2012). Political budget cycles in the European Union and the impact of political pressures. Public Choice 153: 295-327.
Ehrhart, H. (2013). Elections and the structure of taxation in developing countries. Public Choice 156: 195–211.
- Franzese, R. (2002). Electoral and partisan cycles in economic policies and outcomes. Annual Review of Political Science 5: 369-421.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Frey, B. S. and Schneider, F. (1978a). An empirical study of politico-economic interaction in the United States. The Review of Economics and Statistics 60: 1974-183. 25 Frey, B. S. and Schneider, F. (1978b). A politico-economic model of the United Kingdom. The Economic Journal 88: 243-253.
- General notes: - Predetermined and close elections in democracies (Polity2≥0). Sample period: 1975-2010. - Estimated model: ð‘“ð‘–ð‘¡ = ∑ ð›¼ð‘—ð‘“ð‘–,ð‘¡âˆ’ð‘— + ð›½ð¸ð¿ð¸ð¶ð‘‡ð‘–ð‘¡ + ð‘¿â€²ð‘–ð‘¡ðœ¹ ð‘ ð‘—=1 + ðœ‡ð‘– + ðœ€ð‘–ð‘¡ - All the control variables were included in all models. For each estimation, only the results for the coefficient (ð›½) of the election-year variable is shown. Full estimation results are available from the authors upon request. - t-statistics are in parenthesis. Significance level at which the null hypothesis is rejected: ***, 1%; **, 5%, and *, 10%. Notes for the Fixed Effects estimations: - The control variables were lagged one period in order to avoid simultaneity/endogeneity problems.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- General notes: - Predetermined elections in democracies with majoritarian (plurality) electoral rules. Sample period: 1975-2010. - Estimated model: ð‘“ð‘–ð‘¡ = ∑ ð›¼ð‘—ð‘“ð‘–,ð‘¡âˆ’ð‘— + ð›½ð¸ð¿ð¸ð¶ð‘‡ð‘–ð‘¡ + ð‘¿â€²ð‘–ð‘¡ðœ¹ ð‘ ð‘—=1 + ðœ‡ð‘– + ðœ€ð‘–ð‘¡ - All the control variables were included in all models. For each estimation, only the results for the coefficient (ð›½) of the election-year variable is shown. Full estimation results are available from the authors upon request. - t-statistics are in parenthesis. Significance level at which the null hypothesis is rejected: ***, 1%; **, 5%, and *, 10%. Notes for the Fixed Effects estimations: - The control variables were lagged one period in order to avoid simultaneity/endogeneity problems.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- General notes: - Predetermined elections in democracies with proportional electoral rules. Sample period: 1975-2010. - Estimated model: ð‘“ð‘–ð‘¡ = ∑ ð›¼ð‘—ð‘“ð‘–,ð‘¡âˆ’ð‘— + ð›½ð¸ð¿ð¸ð¶ð‘‡ð‘–ð‘¡ + ð‘¿â€²ð‘–ð‘¡ðœ¹ ð‘ ð‘—=1 + ðœ‡ð‘– + ðœ€ð‘–ð‘¡ - All the control variables were included in all models. For each estimation, only the results for the coefficient (ð›½) of the election-year variable is shown. Full estimation results are available from the authors upon request. - t-statistics are in parenthesis. Significance level at which the null hypothesis is rejected: ***, 1%; **, 5%, and *, 10%. Notes for the Fixed Effects estimations: - The control variables were lagged one period in order to avoid simultaneity/endogeneity problems.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- General notes: - Predetermined elections in established democracies. Sample period: 1975-2010. - Estimated model: ð‘“ð‘–ð‘¡ = ∑ ð›¼ð‘—ð‘“ð‘–,ð‘¡âˆ’ð‘— + ð›½ð¸ð¿ð¸ð¶ð‘‡ð‘–ð‘¡ + ð‘¿â€²ð‘–ð‘¡ðœ¹ ð‘ ð‘—=1 + ðœ‡ð‘– + ðœ€ð‘–ð‘¡ - All the control variables were included in all models. For each estimation, only the results for the coefficient (ð›½) of the election-year variable is shown. Full estimation results are available from the authors upon request. - t-statistics are in parenthesis. Significance level at which the null hypothesis is rejected: ***, 1%; **, 5%, and *, 10%. Notes for the Fixed Effects estimations: - The control variables were lagged one period in order to avoid simultaneity/endogeneity problems.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- General notes: - Predetermined elections in new democracies. Sample period: 1975-2010. - Estimated model: ð‘“ð‘–ð‘¡ = ∑ ð›¼ð‘—ð‘“ð‘–,ð‘¡âˆ’ð‘— + ð›½ð¸ð¿ð¸ð¶ð‘‡ð‘–ð‘¡ + ð‘¿â€²ð‘–ð‘¡ðœ¹ ð‘ ð‘—=1 + ðœ‡ð‘– + ðœ€ð‘–ð‘¡ - All the control variables were included in all models. For each estimation, only the results for the coefficient (ð›½) of the election-year variable is shown. Full estimation results are available from the authors upon request. - t-statistics are in parenthesis. Significance level at which the null hypothesis is rejected: ***, 1%; **, 5%, and *, 10%. Notes for the Fixed Effects estimations: - The control variables were lagged one period in order to avoid simultaneity/endogeneity problems.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Heinisz, W. (2000). The institutional environment for economic growth. Economics and Politics 12(1), 1-31.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Hibbs, D. (1977). Political parties and macroeconomic policy. American Political Science Review 71(4): 467-87.
Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W., Rosen, H.S., 1988. Estimating vector autoregressions with panel data. Econometrica. 56, 1371-1395.
Judson, R.A., Owen, A.L. (1999). Estimating dynamic panel data models: A practical guide for macroeconomists. Economics Letters. 65, 9-15.
Katsimi, M. and Sarantides, V. (2012). Do elections affect the composition of fiscal policy in developed, established democracies? Public Choice 151: 325-362.
Khemani, S. (2004). Political cycles in a developing economy: effect of elections in Indian States. Journal of Development Economics 73: 125-154.
- Marshall, M., Jaggers, K., (2009). Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800-2007. Center for Global Policy, George Mason University. Data set downloadable at: http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity4.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Notes for the System-GMM estimations: - System-GMM estimations for dynamic panel-data models; - Log(GDPpc 2005), Trade (%GDP) and Output gap were treated as endogenous. Their lagged values two and three periods were used as instruments in the first-difference equations and their once lagged firstdifferences were used in the levels equation. The option collapse of the command xtabond2 for Stata was used in order to avoid a very high number of instruments; - Two-step results using robust standard errors corrected for finite samples.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Notes: - All elections in democracies (Polity2≥0). Sample period: 1975-2010.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Notes: - All elections in democracies (Polity2≥0). Sample period: 1975-2010. - Estimated model: ð‘“ð‘–ð‘¡ = ∑ ð›¼ð‘—ð‘“ð‘–,ð‘¡âˆ’ð‘— + ð›½ð¸ð¿ð¸ð¶ð‘‡ð‘–ð‘¡ + ð‘¿â€²ð‘–ð‘¡ðœ¹ ð‘ ð‘—=1 + ðœ‡ð‘– + ðœ€ð‘–ð‘¡ - Fixed Effects estimations. - The control variables were lagged one period in order to avoid simultaneity/endogeneity problems.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Notes: - All elections in democracies (using the democracy dummy variable of Cheibub et al. 2010).
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Persson, T. and Tabellini, G. (1999). The size and scope of government: Comparative politics with rational politicians. 1998 Marshall lecture. European Economic Review 43: 699-735.
- Persson, T. and Tabellini, G. (2000). Political Economics – Explaining Economic Policy. The MIT Press: Cambridge, Massachutts.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Persson, T. and Tabellini, G. (2003). The economic effect of constitutions: what do the data say. The MIT Press: Cambridge.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Political constraints 2931 0.37 0.17 0.00 0.72 Index of political constraints (Heinisz, 2000). 34 Variable Obs. Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max. Description Elections and type of system (source: DPI-World Bank) Election_year 2975 0.20 0.40 0.00 1.00 Election year for the government leader (President or Prime Minister) Election_year2 2423 0.15 0.29 0.00 1.00 Election year for the government: equals election_month/12 in the election year, (1election_month /12) in the year before, and zero otherwise Pred_Election_year 2975 0.15 0.36 0.00 1.00 Election year for the government leader (President or Prime Minister). Only predetermined elections considered.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Pred_Election_year2 2975 0.09 0.24 0.00 1.00 Election year for the government: equals election_month/12 in the election year, (1election_month /12) in the year before, and zero otherwise. Only predetermined elections considered.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Rogoff, K. (1990). Equilibrium political budget cycles. American Economic Review 80: 21-36. 26 Shi, M. and Svensson, J. (2006). Political budget cycles: do they differ across countries and why? Journal of Public Economics 90(8-9): 1367-89.
Rogoff, K. and Sibert, A. (1988). Elections and macroeconomic policy cycles. Review of Economics Studies 55: 1-16.
- Sample period: 1975-2010. - Estimated model: ð‘“ð‘–ð‘¡ = ∑ ð›¼ð‘—ð‘“ð‘–,ð‘¡âˆ’ð‘— + ð›½ð¸ð¿ð¸ð¶ð‘‡ð‘–ð‘¡ + ð‘¿â€²ð‘–ð‘¡ðœ¹ ð‘ ð‘—=1 + ðœ‡ð‘– + ðœ€ð‘–ð‘¡ - All the control variables were included in all models. For each estimation, only the results for the coefficient (ð›½) of the election-year variable is shown. Full estimation results are available from the authors upon request. - t-statistics are in parenthesis. Significance level at which the null hypothesis is rejected: ***, 1%; **, 5%, and *, 10%. Notes for the Fixed Effects estimations: - The control variables were lagged one period in order to avoid simultaneity/endogeneity problems.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Sjahrir, B.S., Kis-Katos, K. and Schulze, G.G. (2013). Political budget cycles in Indonesia at the district level. Economics Letters 120, 342-345.
Solé-Ollé, A., Sorribas-Navarro, P. (2008). The effects of partisan alignment on the allocation of intergovernmental transfers. Differences-in-differences estimates for Spain. Journal of Public Economics, 92, 2302-2319.
- System 2933 1.05 0.97 0.00 2.00 Political System (Parliamentary/Presidential) PR 2722 0.71 0.45 0.00 1.00 Proportional Representation dummy Close election 2933 0.51 0.50 0.00 1.00 Dummy for close elections (equals 1 if margin of victory smaller than 10 percentage points) Single party 2975 0.44 0.50 0.00 1.00 Dummy variable for single party governments.
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
- Two-party 2975 0.34 0.47 0.00 1.00 Dummy variable for two party systems (equals 1 when the effective number of parties is smaller than 3).
Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
Veiga, L.G., Pinho, M.M. (2007). The political economy of intergovernmental grants: Evidence from a maturing democracy. Public Choice, 133, 457-477.
Veiga, L.G., Veiga, F.J. (2007). Political business cycles at the municipal level. Public Choice 131: 45-64.
Veiga, L.G., Veiga, F.J. (2013). Intergovernmental fiscal transfers as pork barrel. Public Choice 155 (3/4): 335-353.
Vergone, C. (2009). Democracy, elections and allocation of public expenditures in developing countries. European Journal of Political Economy 25(1): 63-77.