- Acemoglu, Daron. 2009. Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton and Oxford: Princeton University Press.
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- After the coup, a Marxist rule was established to last, officially, until 1992. But because the communist party lacked understanding to and regards for Afghanistan’s complicated tribal society, rural revolts against the party broke all over the country. Regional tribes’ warlords and Islamicists declared a cultural and/or ideological Jihad (i.e., holy war) against the communists.
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- Agence France Presse. 2022a. “Comment le retour au pouvoir des talibans a bouleversé la vie des femmes.” La Presse, 15 February 2022.
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- Agence France Presse. 2022b. “The Taliban Closes Afghan Girls’ Schools Hours After Reopening.
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- Ahmed Gosh, Huma. 2003. “A History of Women in Afghanistan: Lessons Learned for the Future or Yesterdays and Tomorrow.” Journal of International Women’s Studies, 4(3 (May)): 1.
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Akbulut-Yuksel, Mevlude, and Mutlu Yuksel. 2015. “The Long-Term Direct and External Effects of Jewish Expulsions in Nazi Germany.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 7(3): 58–85.
- Al Jazeera. 2022. “Taliban Says All Afghan Girls Will Be Back in School by March.” Al Jazeera, 17 January 2022.
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- Alfano, Marco, and Joseph-Simon Görlach. 2019. “Terrorism, Education, and the Role of Expectations: Evidence from Al-Shabaab Attacks in Kenya.” Strathclyde Discussion Papers in Economics No. 1904, University of Strathclyde.
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- Aslam, Maqsood, Etienne Farvaque, and Alexander Mihailov. 2020. “Government Unemployment Insurance for All? The Fall of the Berlin Wall and Social Preferences Evolution. ” Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2020-06, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
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- Barenbaum, Joshua, Vladislav Ruchkin, and Mary Schwab-Stone. 2004. “The Psychosocial Aspects of Children Exposed to War: Practice and Policy Initiatives.” Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 45(1): 41–62.
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Bauer, Michal, Julie Chytilová, and Barbara Pertold-Gebicka. 2013. “Parental Background and Other-Regarding Preferences in Children.” Experimental Economics, 17(1): 24– 46.
Becker, Sascha O., and Ludger Woessmann. 2009. “Was Weber Wrong? A Human Capital Theory of Protestant Economic History.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 124(2): 531–596.
- Before the advent of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the country had already been devastated by more than twenty years of civil war. The monarchy ended in 1973 when Sardar Mohammed Daud established for the first time a Republic in Afghanistan, hence becoming its first president.
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- Berman, Eli, and Ara Stepanyan. 2004. “How Many Radical Islamists? Indirect Evidence from Five Countries.” UCSD Mimeo, University of California San Diego.
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Berman, Eli. 2000. “Sect, Subsidy and Sacrifice: An Economist’s View of Ultra-Orthodox Jews.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 115(3): 905–953.
Berman, Eli. 2003. “Hamas, Taliban and the Jewish Underground: An Economist’s View of Radical Religious Militias.” NBER Working Paper No. 10004, National Bureau of Economic Research.
Bertoni, Eleonora, Michele Di Maio, Vasco Molini, and Roberto Nisticò. 2019. “Education Is Forbidden: The Effect of the Boko Haram Conflict on Education in North-East Nigeria.” Journal of Development Economics, 141: 102249.
Brown, Ryan, and Andrea Velásquez. 2017. “The Effect of Violent Crime on the Human Capital Accumulation of Young Adults.” Journal of Development Economics, 127: 1–12.
Brück, Tilman, Michele Di Maio, and Sami H Miaari. 2019. “Learning the Hard Way: The Effect of Violent Conflict on Student Academic Achievement.” Journal of the European Economic Association, 17(5): 1502–1537.
- Brunner and Mihailov (January 2023) 45 loose alliance of Islamic militants known as the Mujaheddin, to which was given US and Saudi financial support administered by the Pakistani Interservices Intelligence (ISI). It is actually this aid, in the form of money and arms, that gave Islamicists the means to increase their influence and radicalize the Afghan society in which they barely had grounds before.49 Within a few months, Afghanistan was precipitated in the Cold War between the Soviet Union and the US.
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- Brunner and Mihailov (January 2023) 53 the southern Pashtun regions (Rashid, 2010). Because increased rents drive incentives to defect and steal resources up, more radical sacrifices and prohibitions are needed to ensure members’ commitment (Berman, 2003).
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- Brunner and Mihailov (January 2023) 55 For instance, Shemyakina (2011) examines the effect of exposure to the Tajik civil war between 1992 and 1998 on boys’ and girls’ probability of completing their compulsory schooling and on school enrollment rates just after the conflict. Using data from the 1999 and 2003 Tajik Living Standards Surveys, she exploits differences in exposure to the war across regions, birth cohorts and households and finds that, while boys’ education was not significantly affected by the Tajik armed conflict, girls who were of school age during the war and lived in conflict-affected regions are 7.3 percent less likely to complete their mandatory schooling than similarly aged girls unaffected by the war. Moreover, she finds that the school enrollment rate of treated girls in 1999 is significantly lower than that of untreated girls by approximately 12 pp.
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- Brunner and Mihailov (January 2023) 85 Figure A1: Age at First Taliban Exposure and Age at the Time of the Survey Correspondence Notes: This table illustrates how an individual’s age at Taliban arrival is computed based on their age in 2015 and the timing of the Taliban occupation in their province of residence. 86 Radical Religious Rule and Human Capital Figure A2: Years of Taliban Exposure by Timing of the Taliban Occupation at the Province Level Notes: This table illustrates how the number of years of exposure to the Taliban regime while of preschool and compulsory school age are computed in the baseline analysis.
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- Brunner and Mihailov (January 2023) 87 Figure A3: Years of Taliban Exposure by Timing of the Taliban Occupation at the Province Level (for Robustness Tests) Notes: This table illustrates how the number of years of exposure to the Taliban regime while of preschool and compulsory school age are computed. This concerns the robustness tests varying the school age definition.
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- But as the Bush administration refused to send more troops and funding for Afghanistan’s reconstruction, the insurgency violence increased from 2006 onwards and the Taliban eventually took more ground; such that in 2009, they had a significant presence throughout the country again (especially in the southern, eastern and some northern provinces) but no territorial control (Roggio, 2022). The Taliban typically targeted the Afghan administration in their attacks.
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- But if for the Americans the interest in supporting the Mujaheddin was to reduce the Soviets’ sphere of influence, for Afghan tribes, it was yet one more fight to prevent the submission of their religion, culture and society to a foreign system. At last, the Mujaheddin successfully forced the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989 and, after a few more years of war, overthrew the Soviet-backed government of Mohammed Najibullah in 1992. But when Kabul fell, it was not to Pashtun tribes which used to rule Afghanistan for 300 years, but to the better organised Tajik forces of Burhanuddin Rabbani and his military commander Ahmad Shah Masud, along with Uzbek forces led by General Rashid Dotsum. Almost instantly, a civil war broke between Pashtun tribes led by Gulbuddin Hikmetyar and the interim Islamist government created by Burhanuddin Rabbani. Meanwhile, former Mujaheddin warlords fought each other in different parts of the country.
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- Central Statistics Organization (CSO), Minitry of Public Health (MoPH), and ICF. 2017. Afghanistan Demographic and Health Survey 2015. Central Statistics Organization. Kabul, Afghanistan.
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Chamarbagwala, Rubiana, and Hilcás E Morán. 2011. “The Human Capital Consequences of Civil War: Evidence from Guatemala.” Journal of Development Economics, 94(1): 41–61.
- Column (1) reports the baseline results. Columns (2) and (3) run the specification with an alternative sample, i.e. respectively including men aged 15 to 49 and men aged 20 to 40. Column (4) uses an alternative (never treated) control group including both provinces that never were under Taliban rule between 1994 and 2001 and provinces that were only partially under Taliban control: Panjsher, Badakhshan, Kapisa, Laghman, Kunhara, Nooristan, Baghlan and Takhar provinces. In column (5), the begin of the Taliban rule is shifted 1 year in the future to account for the fact the actual begin of the Taliban rule at the province level is not precisely known. Column (6) clusters at the province-age level instead of the province level. The set of potential covariates includes ethnicity and language dummies, an index of wealth and an indicator variable equal to one if the respondent is living in a rural area. Sampling weights are used in all regression.
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- Council on Foreign Relations. 2022. “The U.S. War in Afghanistan: 1999-2021.” Couttenier, Mathieu, Veronica Petrencu, Dominic Rohner, and Mathias Thoenig. 2019. “The Violent Legacy of Conflict: Evidence on Asylum Seekers, Crime, and Public Policy in Switzerland.” American Economic Review, 109(12): 4378–4425.
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- Ekhator-Mobayode et al. (2022) also investigate the impact of the Boko Haram conflict, but on women’s experience of intimate partner violence (IPV), controlling behaviors from husband, autonomy in household decisions and control over their own earnings. Using a kernel-based difference-in-differences model and controlling for different IPV risk factors, the authors find that between 2008 and 2013, the Boko Haram insurgency increased a woman’s probability to experience IPV by 3.7 pp, and that of experiencing controlling behaviors from husband by 13.8 pp. It also impeded women’s agency.
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Ekhator-Mobayode, Uche Eseosa, Lucia C. Hanmer, Eliana C. Rubiano Matulevich, and Diana Jimena Arango. 2022. “The Effect of Armed Conflict on Intimate Partner Violence : Evidence from the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria.” World Development, 153: 105780.
- Empirical support for the model was also provided for radical religious militias in different countries, including Israel and Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Chechnya and Sri Lanka (Berman and Laitin, 2008). B.2 Socioeconomic Impact of the Taliban Rule in Afghanistan and of Radical Religious Militias in General If, as argued above, apparent acts of zealotry and the imposition of extremist norms by radical religious militias can in fact be rationally explained, they are nonetheless damaging for members and non-members of these groups; and only a few academic papers have attempted to quantify the extent of these damages for the affected people.
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- Eventually, Daud demanded monetary support from the Soviet Union to modernize the Afghan State. But in 1978, he was assassinated by communist sympathizers within the army in a violent military coup that started a war which would ultimately kill 1.5 million people.
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Fehr, Ernst, Daniela Glätlze-Rützler, and Matthias Sutter. 2013. “The Development of Egalitarianism, Altruism, Spite and Parochialism in Childhood and Adolescence.” European Economic Review, 64: 369–383.
- Galor, Oded. 2022. The Journey of Humanity: The Origins of Wealth and Inequality. Penguin Publishing Group.
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- Garbarino, James, and Kathleen Kostelny. 1996. “The Effects of Political Violence on Palestinian Children’s Behavior Problems: A Risk Accumulation Model.” Child Development, 67(1): 33–45.
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- General Assembly of the United Nations. 1948. “Universal Declaration of Human Rights.” United Nations.
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Gennaioli, Nicola, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer. 2013. “Human Capital and Regional Development.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(1): 105–164.
- Ghasemi, Marjon E. 1999. “Islam, International Human Rights and Women’s Equality: Afghan Women under Taliban Rule.” Southern California Review of Law and Women’s Studies, 8(2 (Spring)): 445–468.
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- Given the above definitions, the Taliban can be labeled both as a radical religious group, or sect, and as a radical religious militia. Their radical practice of Islam clearly departs from the traditional Muslim faith by its extremism, use of violence and lack of tolerance.61 Moreover, the Taliban have fiercely subjugated women in the name of religion, while Mohammed is traditionally known for emancipating women (Rashid, 2010, p. 107). Generally, the Taliban have drastically augmented traditional Muslim prohibitions and customs (Berman, 2003; Berman and Laitin, 2008), leaving no room for differing interpretations and liberty of choice. No discussion of the Taliban’s interpretation of the Koran was tolerated; in fact, the Taliban implemented in Afghanistan the contemporaneous “strictest interpretation of the Sharia law ever seen in the Muslim world” (Rashid, 2010, p. 29).
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Gould, Eric D., Victor Lavy, and M. Daniele Paserman. 2011. “Sixty Years after the Magic Carpet Ride: The Long-Run Effect of the Early Childhood Environment on Social and Economic Outcomes.” Review of Economic Studies, 78(3): 938–973.
Heckman, James, Rodrigo Pinto, and Peter Savelyev. 2013. “Understanding the Mechanisms Through Which an Influential Early Childhood Program Boosted Adult Oucomes.” American Economic Review, 103(6): 2052–2086.
- Hence in 2006, 187 schools were burnt down by the Taliban, and 85 teachers and more than 600 policemen were killed. Suicide bombing also became particularly used, creating more and more civilian casualties. When Barack Obama took office in 2009, more military power was devoted to fighting in Afghanistan and training an Afghan army and police. In 2012 at last, the Taliban threat was minimized, and the Taliban were repelled in some southern and eastern regions (Roggio, 2022). However, it was publicly known that the American occupation was only to last for a few years, so the Taliban hid and waited for the withdrawal of the American 59 The ties the Taliban forged with Al Qaeda transformed them from a peasant army into an organized insurgency with affiliation to international Jihad within the movement leadership.
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- Herzer, Eva. 2001. “Behind the Afghani Taliban’s Veils of Terror.” Women Lawyers Journal, 87(1): 18–22.
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- Hijmans, Robert J., University of California Berkeley, and Museum of Vertebrate Zoology. 2015a. “Boundary, Afghanistan, 2015 [Data File].” Hijmans, Robert J., University of California Berkeley, and Museum of Vertebrate Zoology. 2015b. “First-level Administrative Divisions, Afghanistan, 2015 [Data File].” Hijmans, Robert J., University of California Berkeley, and Museum of Vertebrate Zoology. 2015c. “Second-level Administrative Divisions, Afghanistan, 2015 [Data File].” Brunner and Mihailov (January 2023) 41 Högbladh, Stina. 2021. “UCDP GED Codebook version 21.1.” Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University.
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Iannaccone, Laurence R. 1992. “Sacrifice and Stigma: Reducing Free-Riding in Cults, Communes and Other Collectives.” Journal of Political Economy, 100(2): 271–291.
- In the year and a half before the September 11 2001 terror attacks, the economic and social situation in Afghanistan deteriorated quickly. Moreover, the influence of Osama Bin Laden, who at the time was under Taliban protection, increased strongly. Afghanistan had become a base for extremists from all over the world to come and learn battlefield tactics and bomb making in Al Qaeda camps; and Osama Bin Laden58 convinced Mullah Omar to 54 The Taliban maintained that they did not want to forbid girls’ education but that they did not have sufficient resources and staff to provide separate education for boys and for girls. The ban on girls’ education was supposed to be a temporary measure until separate schools could be provided for girls. 55 In provinces administered by the Northern Alliance, women were allowed to work and girls to go to school.
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- Indeed, if many former Mujaheddin warlords, including Masud, also were Islamicists, their ideology lay nowhere near that of the Taliban. 56 In Kabul, only one hospital was dedicated to women. Working in healthcare was the only profession women were still allowed to perform outside of home. 57 The Taliban eventually succeeded at forcing the UN to leave Kandahar. 58 Osama Bin Laden first came to Afghanistan alongside many Muslim radicals from all over the world during the Soviet war to help the Mujaheddin, but he then mostly used his wealth to spread Wahabbism and set up Al Qaeda. He returned to Saudi Arabia in 1990 and disapproved of the American intervention in Kuwait. The Americans remaining in Saudi Arabia after Kuwait’s liberation, he declared a Jihad to the US in 1996. He moved back to Afghanistan in 1996 and to Kandahar in 1997. He was then under Taliban protection.
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Justino, Patricia, Marinella Leone, and Paola Salardi. 2014. “Short- and Long-Term Impact of Violence on Education: The Case of Timor-Leste.” The World Bank Economic Review, 28(2): 320–353.
- Keystone-ATS. 2022. “La Suisse va rencontrer des représentants talibans à Genève.” Swissinfo.
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- Kuterovac-Jagodić, Gordana. 2003. “Posttraumatic Stress Symptoms in Croatian Children Exposed War: A Prospective Study.” Journal of Clinical Psychology, 59(1): 9–25.
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León, Gianmarco. 2012. “Civil Conflict and Human Capital Accumulation: The Long-Term Effects of Political Violence in Peru.” Journal of Human Resources, 47(4): 991–1022.
- Maity, Bipasha, and Sumedha Shukla. 2022. “The Long Term Effect of Exposure to the Taliban Regime on Women’s Age at Marriage in Afghanistan.” manuscript, Ashoka University.
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- Middleton, Shannon A. 2001. “Women’s Rights Unveiled: Taliban’s Treatment of Women in Afghanistan.” Indiana International & Comparative Law Review, 11(2): 421–468.
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Monteiro, Joana, and Rudi Rocha. 2017. “Drug Battles and School Achievement: Evidence from Rio de Janeiro’s Favelas.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(2): 213–228.
- Moreover, she finds that children born between 2003 and 2005 (who thus were 9 to 11 years old when living in the caliphate) were more strongly affected by Boko Haram’s occupation in terms of completed schooling. Stoelinga (2022) explores many different potential mechanisms underlying these effects, such as child labor, marriage, health, school supply, labor market trends and returns to education, but none seems to explain the results. She, however, finds some evidence that having a shared social identity with Boko Haram, peer or network effects, and intimidation and fear drive the effects. Thus, Stoelinga (2022)’s research suggests that social identity and social pressure are key to explain how individuals adapt their behaviors in response to occupation.
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- New York Times. 1998. “100 Girls’ Schools in Afghan Capital Are Ordered Shut.” New York Times.
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Noury, Abdul G., and Biagio Speciale. 2016. “Social Constraints and Women’s Education: Evidence from Afghanistan under Radical Religious Rule.” Journal of Comparative Economics, 44(4): 821–841.
- Olesen, Asta. 1996. “The Islamic Movement in Afghanistan: National Liberation and the Challenge of Power.” In Questioning the Secular State: The Worldwide Resurgence of Religion in Politics. , ed. David Westerlund, 392–410. Hurst & Company: London.
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- Ramadurai, Rupa. 2012. “Education Connection: The Miseducation of the Taliban and the Nightmare Women Face under Sharia Law.” Children’s Legal Rights Journal, 32(4(Winter) ): 81–84.
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- Rashid, Ahmed. 2010. Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil and Fundamentalism in Central Asia. . 2 ed., New Haven and London:Yale University Press.
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- Reuters. 2022. “Taliban Orders Girl High Schools Remain Closed, Leaving Students in Tears.” Swissinfo.ch, 23 March 2022.
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- Ridard, Emilie. 2021. “Les talibans ne sont pas seulement les méchants.” Swissinfo.ch.
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Rohner, Dominic, Mathias Thoenig, and Fabrizio Zilibotti. 2013. “Seeds of Distrust: Conflict in Uganda.” Journal of Economic Growth, 18(3): 217–252.
- Running several difference-in-differences models, Justino, Leone and Salardi (2014) study the short- and long-term human capital consequences of the 1999 wave of violence accompanying the withdrawal of Indonesian troops in Timor-Leste. In the short-term, the authors find that children from families who reported having been displaced during the 1999 wave of violence are 8.5 pp less likely to be enrolled in primary school in 2001, with a stronger effect for boys.
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Schmidheiny, Kurt, and Sebastian Siegloch. 2020. “On Event Studies and DistributedLags in Two-Way Fixed Effects Models: Identification, Equivalence, and Generalization.” CEPR Discussion Paper Series No. DP13477, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
Shemyakina, Olga. 2011. “The Effect of Armed Conflict on Accumulation of Schooling: Results from Tajikistan.” Journal of Development Economics, 95(2): 186–200.
- Simultaneously, divisions within the communist party itself led to the murder of the first communist president, Nur Mohammed Taraki. In 1979, the Soviet Union intervened and Soviet troops invaded Afghanistan, backing up the Afghan communist government. On the other side, first fighting on their own (and sometimes each other), regional warlords eventually formed a 48 Unless otherwise stated, most information provided in this section A.1 refers to Rashid (2010). Ahmed Rashid is a Pakistani journalist who covered Afghanistan’s wars for about 20 years and had a front-row seat to see the Taliban take control of Afghanistan.
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Squicciarini, Mara P., and Nico Voigtländer. 2015. “Human Capital and Industrialization: Evidence from the Age of Enlightenment.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 130(4): 1825– 1883.
Stoelinga, Nicole. 2022. “Living in the Caliphate: The Impact of Boko Haram’s Occupation on Educational Outcomes.” Brunner and Mihailov (January 2023) 43 Tabellini, Guido. 2010. “Culture and Institutions, Economic Development in the Regions of Europe.” Journal of the European Economic Association, 8(4): 677–716.
- Taliban control is an indicator variable taking value one if the individual’s province of residence ever was under Taliban rule; Years of school-aged exposure is a variable ranging from 0 to 8 and indicating the number of years an individual was of compulsory school age (6 to 14 years old) at the time of the Taliban rule; and Years of preschool-aged exposure is a variable ranging from 0 to 6 and indicating the number of years an individual was of preschool age (0 to 5 years old) at the time of the Taliban rule. The (never treated) control group is composed of the provinces that never were under Taliban rule between 1994 and 2001: Panjsheer and Badakhshan. The set of potential covariates includes ethnicity and language dummies, an index of wealth and an indicator variable equal to one if the respondent is living in a rural area.
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- Telesetsky, Anastasia. 1998. “In the Shadows and Behind the Veil: Women in Afghanistan under the Taliban Rule.” Berkeley Women’s Law Journal, 13(1): 293–305.
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- The above links to the explanation in Berman (2003) of why radical religious groups form extremely effective militias. Because these groups already impose important sacrifices, they can effectively mitigate the risk of defection, to which militias are extremely sensitive.68 In fact, sacrifices allow to screen out non-committed and likely to defect members, hence yielding militias more effective and able to tackle higher value projects than other armed groups (Berman, 2003; Berman and Laitin, 2008). The Taliban, for instance, imposed on their members several years of studying the Koran in madrassas. This can be seen as an important sacrifice of time for rather poor people who arguably would not be able to use this learnt knowledge for profit (Berman, 2003; Berman and Laitin, 2008).
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- The club good framework was empirically tested and supported for different peaceful religious communities, such as Christian sects (Iannaccone, 1992), Ultra-Orthodox Jews (Berman, 2000), Muslim sects (Berman and Stepanyan, 2004) and Amish communities (Wang, 2020).
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- The first time the Taliban took arms was in 1994 to free two teenage girls that had been abducted and raped by a warlord in Singesar. The Taliban attacked the base the girls were 49 While virtually all Afghans were religious, 80% of them were of Sunni Hanafi ideology, one of the most liberal creeds.
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- UNDP. 2020. “Human Development Reports, Afghanistan.” Data.
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- UNESCO. 2021. The Right to Education: What’s at Stake in Afghanistan? A 20-Year Review.
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- United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), Paris, France. Unterhalter, Elaine. 2022. “The History of Secret Education for Girls in Afghanistan – and Its Use as a Political Symbol.” The Conversation, 23 August 2022.
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- USAID. 2021. “Demographic and Health Surveys Program.” Wang, Liang Choon. 2020. “Religious Prohibition and Sacrifice: Evidence from the Amish Restriction on High School Education.” Journal of Demographic Economics, 86(3): 403–434.
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- What happened after 2001 is out of the scope of this paper. However, it matters greatly to understand the return of the Taliban to power in August 2021. Indeed, although the Taliban had been defeated in 2001, their leadership structure was almost entirely intact, such that they could regroup in Pakistan, where most fled. After having gathered resources (notably clandestine funding by the ISI), they re-emerged in early 2003 as an insurgency movement, with more elaborated war and propaganda tactics than ever before.59 Their attacks were at first concentrated in the southern provinces, and the Taliban did not really represent a threat elsewhere.
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