create a website

The Term Structure of Uncertainty: New Evidence from Survey Expectations. (2022). McElroy, Tucker ; Binder, Carola ; Sheng, Xuguang S.
In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:1:p:39-71.

Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Cited: 6

Citations received by this document

Cites: 28

References cited by this document

Cocites: 50

Documents which have cited the same bibliography

Coauthors: 0

Authors who have wrote about the same topic

Citations

Citations received by this document

  1. The Macroeconomic Expectations of U.S. Managers. (2025). Gorodnichenko, Yuriy ; Coibion, Olivier ; Yaremko, Vitaliia.
    In: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
    RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:57:y:2025:i:4:p:683-716.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  2. The effects of inflation uncertainty on firms and the macroeconomy. (2025). Binder, Carola ; Ozturk, Ezgi ; Sheng, Xuguang Simon.
    In: Journal of International Money and Finance.
    RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s0261560624002262.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  3. Impact of uncertainty on inflation forecast errors in Central and Eastern European countries. (2023). Kliber, Agata ; Rutkowska, Aleksandra ; Prchniak, Mariusz ; Szyszko, Magdalena.
    In: Eurasian Economic Review.
    RePEc:spr:eurase:v:13:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s40822-023-00237-9.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  4. Stranding ahoy? Heterogeneous transition beliefs and capital investment choices. (2023). Campiglio, Emanuele ; Cahen-Fourot, Louison ; Miess, Michael Gregor ; Daumas, Louis ; Yardley, Andrew.
    In: Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.
    RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:216:y:2023:i:c:p:535-567.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  5. What is the role of perceived oil price shocks in inflation expectations?. (2023). An, Zidong ; Sheng, Xuguang Simon ; Zheng, Xinye.
    In: Energy Economics.
    RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323004486.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  6. The term structure of inflation forecasts disagreement and monetary policy transmission. (2023). Xia, Fan Dora ; Zhu, Sonya ; Barbera, Alessandro.
    In: BIS Working Papers.
    RePEc:bis:biswps:1114.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

References

References cited by this document

  1. Abel, Joshua, Robert Rich, Joseph Song, and Joseph Tracy. (2016) “The Measurement and Behavior of Uncertainty: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31, 533–50.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  2. Andrade, Philippe, and Herve Le‐Bihan. (2013) “Inattentive Professional Forecasters.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 60, 976–82.

  3. Armantier, Olivier, Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Giorgio Topa, Wilbert van der Klaauw, and Basit Zafar. (2015) “Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?.” International Economic Review, 56, 505–36.

  4. Aruoba, S. Boraǧan. (2020) “Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 38, 542–53.

  5. Baker, Scott, Tucker McElroy, and Xuguang Sheng. (2020) “Expectation Formation Following Large Unexpected Shocks.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 102, 287–303.

  6. Ball, Laurence, and Stephen Cecchetti. (1990) “Inflation and Uncertainty at Short and Long Horizons.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, 215–54.

  7. Barrero, Jose Maria, Nicholas Bloom, and Ian Wright. (2017) “Short and Long Run Uncertainty.” NBER Working Paper No. 23676.

  8. Beechey, Meredith, Benjamin Johannsen, and Andrew Levin. (2011) “Are Long‐Run Inflation Expectations Anchored More Firmly in the Euro Area than in the United States?.” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 3, 104–29.

  9. Berger, David, Ian Dew‐Becker, and Stefano Giglio. (2020) “Uncertainty Shocks as Second‐Moment News Shocks.” Review of Economic Studies, 87, 40–76.

  10. Binder, Carola. (2017) “Measuring Uncertainty Based on Rounding: New Method and Application to Inflation Expectations.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 90, 1–12.

  11. Binder, Carola. (2018) “Inflation Expectations and the Price at the Pump.” Journal of Macroeconomics, 58, 1–18.

  12. Breitung, Jörg, and Malte Knüppel. (2018) “How Far Can We Forecast? Statistical Tests of the Predictive Content.” Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper.

  13. Clark, Todd E., Michael W. McCracken, and Elmar Mertens. (2020) “Modeling Time‐Varying Uncertainty of Multiple‐Horizon Forecast Errors.” Review of Economics and Statistics, 102, 17–33.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  14. Clements, Michael, and Ana Galvao. (2017) “Model and Survey Estimates of the Term Structure of US Macroeconomic Uncertainty.” International Journal of Forecasting, 33, 591–604.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  15. Coibion, Olivier, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko. (2012) “What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?.” Journal of Political Economy, 120, 116–59.

  16. Coibion, Olivier, and Yuriy Gorodnichenko. (2015) “Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts.” American Economic Review, 105, 2644–78.

  17. Engelberg, Joseph, Charles Manski, and Jared Williams. (2009) “Comparing the Point Predictions and Subjective Probability Distributions of Professional Forecasters.” Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 27, 30–41.

  18. Fuhrer, Jeffrey. (2017) “Expectations as a Source of Macroeconomic Persistence: Evidence from Survey Expectations in Dynamic Macro Models.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 86, 22–35.

  19. Fuhrer, Jeffrey. (2018) “Intrinsic Expectations Persistence: Evidence from Professional and Household Survey Expectations.” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Working Paper, Vol. 18‐9.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  20. Giordani, Paolo, and Paul Soderlind. (2003) “Inflation Forecast Uncertainty.” European Economic Review, 47, 1037–59.

  21. Kozeniauskas, Nicholas, Anna Orlik, and Laura Veldkamp. (2018) “What are Uncertainty Shocks?.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 100, 1–15.

  22. Lahiri, Kajal, and Xuguang Sheng. (2008) “Evolution of Forecast Disagreement in a Bayesian Learning Model.” Journal of Econometrics, 144, 325–40.

  23. Leduc, Sylvain, and Zheng Liu. (2016) “Uncertainty Shocks are Aggregate Demand Shocks.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 82, 20–35.

  24. Liu, Yang, and Xuguang S. Sheng. (2019) “The Measurement and Transmission of Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC Countries.” International Journal of Forecasting, 35, 967–79.

  25. Mankiw, Gregory, and Ricardo Reis. (2002) “Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve.” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117, 1295–328.

  26. Mankiw, N. Gregory, Ricardo Reis, and Justin Wolfers. (2004) “Disagreement about Inflation Expectations.” In NBER Macroeconomics Annual, edited by Mark Gertler and Kenneth Rogoff, Vol. 18, pp. 209–48. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
    Paper not yet in RePEc: Add citation now
  27. Patton, Andrew, and Allan Timmermann. (2010) “Why Do Forecasters Disagree? Lessons from the Term Structure of Cross‐Sectional Dispersion.” Journal of Monetary Economics, 57, 803–20.

  28. Rossi, Barbara, Tatevik Sekhposyan, and Matthieu Soupre. (2016) “Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty.” Working Paper.

Cocites

Documents in RePEc which have cited the same bibliography

  1. On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts. (2020). Hubert, Paul ; Cornand, Camille.
    In: Post-Print.
    RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02894262.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  2. Optimal Monetary Policy Under Bounded Rationality. (2019). Bounader, Lahcen ; Benchimol, Jonathan.
    In: IMF Working Papers.
    RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2019/166.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  3. Government Purchases Reloaded : Informational Insufficiency and Heterogeneity in Fiscal VARs. (2017). Ricco, Giovanni ; Ellahie, Atif.
    In: The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS).
    RePEc:wrk:warwec:1138.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  4. What Has Publishing Inflation Forecasts Accomplished? Central Banks And Their Competitors. (2017). Siklos, Pierre.
    In: LCERPA Working Papers.
    RePEc:wlu:lcerpa:0098.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  5. Inflation expectations and monetary policy surprises. (2017). Zachariadis, Marios ; EMINIDOU, SNEZANA ; Andreou, Elena.
    In: University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics.
    RePEc:ucy:cypeua:01-2017.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  6. Is time-variant information stickiness state-dependent?. (2017). Jia, Zichao ; Liu, Zhixin ; Xu, Yingying ; Su, Chi-Wei.
    In: Portuguese Economic Journal.
    RePEc:spr:portec:v:16:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10258-017-0129-x.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  7. How Informative are Aggregated Inflation Expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. (2017). Paloviita, Maritta ; Oinonen, Sami.
    In: Journal of Business Cycle Research.
    RePEc:spr:jbuscr:v:13:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s41549-017-0017-6.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  8. Combination of “combinations of p values”. (2017). Sheng, Xuguang Simon ; Cheng, Lan.
    In: Empirical Economics.
    RePEc:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1230-9.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  9. Forecast performance, disagreement, and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios. (2017). Hartmann, Matthias ; Dovern, Jonas.
    In: Empirical Economics.
    RePEc:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1137-x.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  10. Inattentive agents and disagreement about economic activity. (2017). Kim, Insu ; Hur, Joonyoung.
    In: Economic Modelling.
    RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:63:y:2017:i:c:p:175-190.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  11. Behavioral Biases in Firms Growth Expectations. (2017). Koga, Maiko ; Kato, Haruko.
    In: Bank of Japan Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp17e09.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  12. Formation of inflation expectations in turbulent times : Can ECB manage inflation expectations of professional forecasters?. (2017). Paloviita, Maritta ; Łyziak, Tomasz.
    In: Research Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2017_013.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  13. Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios. (2016). Hartmann, Matthias ; Dovern, Jonas.
    In: VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change.
    RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145925.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  14. HOW DO FIRMS FORM THEIR EXPECTATIONS? NEW SURVEY EVIDENCE. (2016). kumar, saten ; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy ; Coibion, Olivier.
    In: 2016 Meeting Papers.
    RePEc:red:sed016:1340.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  15. Are Macro-Forecasters Essentially The Same? An Analysis of Disagreement, Accuracy and Efficiency. (2016). Clements, Michael.
    In: ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance.
    RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2016-08.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  16. Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?. (2016). Clements, Michael.
    In: ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance.
    RePEc:rdg:icmadp:icma-dp2016-02.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  17. Incomplete Information in Macroeconomics: Accommodating Frictions in Coordination. (2016). Angeletos, George-Marios ; Lian, Chen.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22297.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  18. What Do We Lose When We Average Expectations?. (2016). Bürgi, Constantin ; Burgi, Constantin.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2016-013.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  19. The term structure of expectations and bond yields. (2016). Moench, Emanuel ; Eusepi, Stefano ; Crump, Richard.
    In: Staff Reports.
    RePEc:fip:fednsr:775.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  20. Inattention in individual expectations. (2016). Issler, João ; Gaglianone, Wagner ; de Almeida, Yara.
    In: FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE).
    RePEc:fgv:epgewp:776.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  21. Fundamental disagreement. (2016). Moench, Emanuel ; Crump, Richard ; Andrade, Philippe ; Eusepi, Stefano.
    In: Journal of Monetary Economics.
    RePEc:eee:moneco:v:83:y:2016:i:c:p:106-128.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  22. Signals from the government: Policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks. (2016). Ricco, Giovanni ; Cimadomo, Jacopo ; Callegari, Giovanni.
    In: Journal of Monetary Economics.
    RePEc:eee:moneco:v:82:y:2016:i:c:p:107-118.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  23. Are Friday announcements special? Overcoming selection bias. (2016). michaely, roni ; Rubin, Amir ; Vedrashko, Alexander.
    In: Journal of Financial Economics.
    RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:122:y:2016:i:1:p:65-85.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  24. Information rigidities in survey data: Evidence from dispersions in forecasts and forecast revisions. (2016). Kim, Insu ; Hur, Joonyoung.
    In: Economics Letters.
    RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:142:y:2016:i:c:p:10-14.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  25. Information rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap. (2016). Shields, Kalvinder ; Lee, Kevin ; Garratt, Anthony.
    In: Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control.
    RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:70:y:2016:i:c:p:1-17.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  26. ECB footprints on inflation forecast uncertainty. (2016). Makarova, Svetlana.
    In: Bank of Estonia Working Papers.
    RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2016-5.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  27. Signals from the government: policy disagreement and the transmission of fiscal shocks. (2016). Ricco, Giovanni ; Cimadomo, Jacopo ; Callegari, Giovanni.
    In: Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20161964.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  28. Confidence Cycles and Liquidity Hoarding. (2016). Audzei, Volha.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2016/07.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  29. Inflation expectations and monetary policy under disagreements. (2016). Nakazono, Yoshiyuki.
    In: Bank of Japan Working Paper Series.
    RePEc:boj:bojwps:wp16e01.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  30. How informative are aggregated inflation expectations? Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters. (2016). Paloviita, Maritta ; Oinonen, Sami.
    In: Research Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2016_015.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  31. Forecast Performance, Disagreement, and Heterogeneous Signal-to-Noise Ratios. (2016). Hartmann, Matthias ; Dovern, Jonas.
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:awi:wpaper:0611.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  32. Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication. (2015). Pfajfar, Damjan ; Lamla, Michael ; Dräger, Lena ; Drager, Lena.
    In: VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy.
    RePEc:zbw:vfsc15:113170.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  33. Macroeconomic regimes. (2015). Moreno, Antonio ; Inghelbrecht, Koen ; Bekaert, Geert ; Cho, S.
    In: Other publications TiSEM.
    RePEc:tiu:tiutis:e92a1993-778e-4ce2-b603-6982349e2566.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  34. Direct Evidence on Sticky Information from the Revision Behavior of Professional Forecasters. (2015). Pearce, Douglas ; Mitchell, Karlyn.
    In: MPRA Paper.
    RePEc:pra:mprapa:66172.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  35. How Do Firms Form Their Expectations? New Survey Evidence. (2015). kumar, saten ; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy ; Coibion, Olivier.
    In: NBER Working Papers.
    RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21092.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  36. Ex-post Inflation Forecast Uncertainty and Skew Normal Distribution: ‘Back from the Future’ Approach. (2015). Díaz, Carlos ; Charemza, Wojciech ; Makarova, Svetlana ; Diaz, Carlos.
    In: Discussion Papers in Economics.
    RePEc:lec:leecon:15/09.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  37. Choosing the Right Skew Normal Distribution: the Macroeconomist’ Dilemma. (2015). Díaz, Carlos ; Charemza, Wojciech ; Makarova, Svetlana ; Diaz, Carlos.
    In: Discussion Papers in Economics.
    RePEc:lec:leecon:15/08.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  38. Measuring Inflation Expectations: Consumers Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity. (2015). Ueno, Yuko ; Abe, Naohito.
    In: RCESR Discussion Paper Series.
    RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp15-5.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  39. Microfounded forecasting. (2015). Issler, João ; Gaglianone, Wagner.
    In: FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE).
    RePEc:fgv:epgewp:766.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  40. Macroeconomic regimes. (2015). Moreno, Antonio ; Inghelbrecht, Koen ; Cho, Seonghoon ; Bekaert, Geert ; Baele, Lieven.
    In: Journal of Monetary Economics.
    RePEc:eee:moneco:v:70:y:2015:i:c:p:51-71.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  41. What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?. (2015). Sinclair, Tara ; Messina, Jeffrey D ; Stekler, Herman.
    In: Journal of Macroeconomics.
    RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:45:y:2015:i:c:p:54-62.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  42. Information rigidities: Comparing average and individual forecasts for a large international panel. (2015). Tamirisa, Natalia ; Loungani, Prakash ; Fritsche, Ulrich ; Dovern, Jonas.
    In: International Journal of Forecasting.
    RePEc:eee:intfor:v:31:y:2015:i:1:p:144-154.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  43. A multivariate analysis of forecast disagreement: Confronting models of disagreement with survey data. (2015). Dovern, Jonas.
    In: European Economic Review.
    RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:16-35.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  44. Inattention in Individual Expectations. (2015). Issler, João ; Gaglianone, Wagner ; de Almeida, Yara.
    In: Working Papers Series.
    RePEc:bcb:wpaper:395.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  45. What Can We Learn From Revisions to the Greenbook Forecasts?. (2014). Sinclair, Tara ; Stekler, Herman ; Messina, Jeff .
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2014-14.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  46. WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM REVISIONS TO THE GREENBOOK FORECASTS?. (2014). Sinclair, Tara ; Stekler, Herman O. ; Messina, Jeff .
    In: Working Papers.
    RePEc:gwc:wpaper:2014-003.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  47. Do people understand monetary policy?. (2014). Nechio, Fernanda ; Carvalho, Carlos.
    In: Journal of Monetary Economics.
    RePEc:eee:moneco:v:66:y:2014:i:c:p:108-123.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  48. Analysis of aggregated inflation expectations based on the ECB SPF survey. (2014). Paloviita, Maritta ; Oinonen, Sami.
    In: Research Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2014_029.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  49. Analysis of forecast errors in micro-level survey data. (2014). Paloviita, Maritta ; Viren, Matti.
    In: Research Discussion Papers.
    RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2014_008.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

  50. Economic Policy Uncertainty and Inflation Expectations.. (2014). Piloiu, Anamaria ; Istrefi, Klodiana.
    In: Working papers.
    RePEc:bfr:banfra:511.

    Full description at Econpapers || Download paper

Coauthors

Authors registered in RePEc who have wrote about the same topic

Report date: 2025-10-01 14:27:51 || Missing content? Let us know

CitEc is a RePEc service, providing citation data for Economics since 2001. Last updated August, 3 2024. Contact: Jose Manuel Barrueco.