Insurances have a "loss ratio" (premiums vs paid claims) that has different ranges depending on the type of insurance.
> Gadget/Electronic Device Insurance typically operates with loss ratios between 30% and 60%. This means that 30–60 cents of every premium dollar are paid back out in claims. [0]
In other words, on average people pay twice as much in premiums than they would have without insurance. So you'd need to be way more clumsy/unlucky than average to make it worth it.
This depends on how likely you are to make a claim, no? I imagine some clumsy/unlucky people get good value out of their Apple Care plans.