> Over 20% of cars being sold in California are EVs now
These are not compatible, if you're talking BEV. Regardless, you've provided data showing that it's not acceptable for the overwhelming majority of buyers, which matches market research [1]. And, out of that group, 30% want to switch back to gas [2]. Cost, and the massive depreciation is a factor related to current batter tech.
And, what % of commercial vehicles sales are BEV (which is included in general use)?
> and over 90% in Norway.
In California, 2023: 25% sales. 2024: 25.3% sales. There trend has slowed, maybe related to our ridiculous electric prices (fuel is cheaper, in many cases). It's very difficult to compare small European countries to a something in the US.
For some anecdotal evidence (which seems somewhat sufficient for the definition of "general"), I own an EV, and I know it's not ready for general use, because I will not be selling my gas car. In fact, I'm replacing it next month with another gas car. Most people I know have an EV (like 70%), and the majority have a second gas car that they say they will not sell. The majority of those that only have an EV say their next purchase will be a hybrid, all matching the trends shown in market research.
I'm crossing my fingers for another salt battery breakthrough, which are making their way into BEV [3].
I don’t think it’s the battery specs holding back most buyers. For one thing transitions take time even when new tech could cover most of the market’s needs. But the main thing currently is purchase cost and charging infrastructure availability, both of which are improving at a fairly steady rate.
Most of the work going into scaling up EV production currently is about producing higher volumes of the batteries we have to bring costs down. A second prong is working on higher energy density and faster charging, but these solid-state batteries are going to be expensive and start in high-end vehicles, not economy cars for the masses.
> I don’t think it’s the battery specs holding back most buyers.
First link shows it's, at least, the primary (majority) concern for purchase. Price is part of the battery tech/chemistry package (~40% BEV price is battery), which seems to be the real killer:
> Only 33 percent of global survey respondents say they are likely or very likely to buy an EV at current price levels
> Over 20% of cars being sold in California are EVs now
These are not compatible, if you're talking BEV. Regardless, you've provided data showing that it's not acceptable for the overwhelming majority of buyers, which matches market research [1]. And, out of that group, 30% want to switch back to gas [2]. Cost, and the massive depreciation is a factor related to current batter tech.
And, what % of commercial vehicles sales are BEV (which is included in general use)?
> and over 90% in Norway.
In California, 2023: 25% sales. 2024: 25.3% sales. There trend has slowed, maybe related to our ridiculous electric prices (fuel is cheaper, in many cases). It's very difficult to compare small European countries to a something in the US.
For some anecdotal evidence (which seems somewhat sufficient for the definition of "general"), I own an EV, and I know it's not ready for general use, because I will not be selling my gas car. In fact, I'm replacing it next month with another gas car. Most people I know have an EV (like 70%), and the majority have a second gas car that they say they will not sell. The majority of those that only have an EV say their next purchase will be a hybrid, all matching the trends shown in market research.
I'm crossing my fingers for another salt battery breakthrough, which are making their way into BEV [3].
[1] https://www.mckinsey.com/features/mckinsey-center-for-future...
[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/ev-owners-want-to-buy-gas-ca...
[3] https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinese-battery-maker-cat...