Dragonfly

*The latest edition of Dragonfly Dispatch is out now!* Donald Trump’s return to the White House has triggered a flurry of policy changes. But are they as unpredictable as they seem? In this month’s feature, Associate Director Matt Ince challenges that assumption – and reveals how Dragonfly is decoding the signals of a new Trump era to help strategy leaders plan with confidence. 📖 Read the article below – and make sure to subscribe to get future editions of Dragonfly Dispatch straight to your inbox.

Russia appears to be in the final stages of replacing its state-linked security contractor, Wagner Group, with the paramilitary force, the Africa Corps, in Africa. ❓ What are Moscow’s aims with this transition? ❓ What are the probable target countries for Africa Corps? ❓ What tools is it likely to use to consolidate its position in the region? Read our intelligence report here: https://bit.ly/3I5ebmt #Russia #security

Shut The System (STS), a radical environmentalist group, is likely to conduct sporadic direct actions against businesses across the UK over the coming weeks. Our graphic shows major STS-linked sabotage and direct actions conducted in 2025. It comes from an intelligence report on our SIAS platform, exploring the types of direct actions activists are likely to take, as well as their key targets, frequency of attacks, the impact of the group’s actions and more.  To find out more about SIAS, please get in touch today: https://lnkd.in/eT-CAcAJ #securityintelligence

An upcoming general election in Jamaica on 3 September is highly likely to proceed peacefully despite a divisive campaign. There have been incidents of campaign-related disturbances in recent weeks, including alleged intimidation by rival party supporters. Read our assessment of security around the vote here: https://bit.ly/4mDGEyY #Jamaica #election #protests #SecurityIntelligence

Shut The System (STS), a radical environmentalist group, is likely to conduct sporadic direct actions against businesses across the UK over the coming weeks. Based on recent actions, we anticipate that activists will try to cut or damage power and telecoms cables, as well as gas switches, linked to insurance and finance offices. Our graphic shows major sabotage and direct actions by the group in 2025. It is part of a broader report on our SIAS platform, which details the profile of companies the group is likely to target and the potential for the group to intensify the impact of its actions. If you would like access to our full suite of intelligence reports on Europe, please contact us here: https://bit.ly/40NLa50 #UK #activism #environmentalism #SecurityIntelligence

An ongoing global proliferation in scam centres is likely to continue driving high rates of cybercrime in the coming years. Groups running scam centre compounds seem highly capable of establishing these operations in areas of weak governance and leveraging AI to increase recruitment and efficiency. Criminals also often target people in countries outside the one they are based, meaning the authorities have little domestic pressure to conduct crackdowns. Read our assessment here: https://bit.ly/4mXPlE1 #ScamCentres #cybercrime #AI

The Dragonfly team is #hiring for a senior associate based in London for its Advisory team. The individual will work closely with a team of experienced analysts and consultants to advise clients on global geopolitical, macroeconomic and security affairs. Working with the Business Development and Intelligence, and Analysis teams, this role will help deliver bespoke advice to clients. If you are interested in applying, click here: https://lnkd.in/eV2n6FnE Hear from the hiring manager, Joseph B., below: #WorkingAtDJ

Both major political parties in Guyana have accused the other of seeking to interfere in a general election scheduled for 1 September. Venezuela also seems determined to at least rhetorically exploit any potential electoral dispute to claim Guyana is unfit to govern the territory Venezuela claims there. Read our outlook for the election here: https://bit.ly/4oI0VEW #elections #Guyana #Venezuela

Terrorist groups in conflict zones are increasingly deploying hobby drones to mount attacks. In the last few years, we have recorded a significant expansion in the use of unmanned aerial devices by such groups in conflict zones in Afghanistan, Colombia, India, Iraq, Myanmar, Pakistan, the Sahel, and Syria. Our latest visualisation explores this trend in depth – including case studies from Colombia and the Sahel – to help clients understand how and why terrorist groups are adopting drone technology. To learn more and to access our full suite of geopolitical risk intelligence products and decision-support tools, get in touch with us today: https://bit.ly/44NNnzX #geopolitics #RiskIntelligence #drones

We’re delighted to welcome Ee Cheng So to Dragonfly’s Asia desk, based in our Singapore office. A graduate in political science from the National University of Singapore, Ee Cheng brings experience in risk analysis and strategic communications, along with a strong interest in geopolitical intelligence and security. Growing up in Southeast Asia, she has a deep connection to the region and will be focusing on monitoring and assessing developments across Southeast Asia for our clients. Her arrival marks another step in strengthening Dragonfly’s presence in Asia, ensuring we’re even better placed to provide timely, insightful intelligence to our clients in the region. Welcome, Ee Cheng! #MeetTheTeam #Asia #Singapore #analyst