Chapter 36: Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy
Archived Posts
April 10
The Enormity of the Fiscal Gap
The Tax Policy Center argues that income taxes must rise by 40 per cent just to reduce the deficit to 3 per cent of GDP.
Textbook References:
Pages 7-8 “Principle 4: People Respond to Incentives”
Pages 160-164 “The Deadweight Loss of Taxation”
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
April 2
Barro on the Great Depression
Robert Barro questions the Keynesian multiplier and suggests that Friedman and Schwartz had a better understanding of the Great Depression than Keynes.
Textbook References:
Page 657 “Bank Runs and the Money Supply”
Pages 767-766 “Two Big Shifts in Aggregate Demand: The Great Depression and World War II”
Page 770 “The Origins of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-797 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try to Stabilize the Economy?”
March 24
A Fiscal Train Wreck
In an "exceedingly rare" event, bonds issued by a private company (Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway) paid a lower yield than bonds of a similar maturity issued by the U.S. Treasury. That is evidence that investors are getting nervous about the size of the U.S. deficit.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 576-577 “The Bond Market”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits and Surpluses”
Pages 604-605 “The Trade-off Between Risk and Return”
Pages 842-843 “Dealing with Deficits”
March 9
The Problem with Deficit Neutrality
A deficit neutral health-care plan does nothing to fix the problem of rising deficits.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits and Surpluses”
Pages 842-843 “Dealing with Deficits”
March 6
CBO on the President's Budget
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that under the proposed budget, federal debt held by the public will rise to 90 percent of GDP.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits and Surpluses”
Pages 842-843 “Dealing with Deficits”
March 5
Rogoff on Japan
Japan's economy has performed below its potential for 18 years. Kenneth Rogoff discusses the challenges it still faces.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits and Surpluses”
Pages 842-843 “Dealing with Deficits”
March 1
Life Expectancy at Retirement
People in developed countries are living much longer after retirement. They expect pensions and healthcare, which is putting great strain on public finances.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits and Surpluses”
Pages 842-843 “Dealing with Deficits”
February 18
Fiscal Stimulus, One Year Later
David Leonhardt argues that the fiscal stimulus was a success. Phillip Levy says that Leonhardt's argument depends on "a straw man and twisted logic."
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-797 “Using Policy To Stabilize The Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary And Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize The Economy”
February 1
President Obama's New Budget
Keith Hennessey says that "President Obama proposes spending be 12% higher as a share of the economy than it has averaged over the past three decades."
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
January 25
Hayek vs Keynes Rap
There is a short video of a rap song that presents the differences between Keynes and Hayek.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets Are Usually A Good Way To Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Page 358 “Galbraith versus Hayek”
Page 750 “The 2008 Fiscal Stimulus”
Page 770 “The Origins of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply”
Chapter 34 “The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize The Economy?”
January 20
Feldstein on Obamanomics
Martin Feldstein argues that Congress poorly targeted the fiscal stimulus. As a result, its impact was smaller than it might have been.
Textbook References:
Pages 7-8 “Principle 4: People Respond to Incentives”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Affects Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-797 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize The Economy?”
December 14
Why Keynesians Drive Scott Sumner Nuts
Scott Sumner explains why he doesn't like the way monetary policy is treated in Keynesian models.
Textbook References:
Chapter 36 “Five Debates Over Macroeconomic Policy”
November 4
Assuming a Can Opener
The CBO points out that for the numbers in the health-care reform bill to add up, Congress must follow through on its plans to cut physician Medicare reimbursement by 21 percent.
Textbook References:
Page 833 “Time Inconsistency of Policy”
October 22
From the CEA Chair
Christina Romer discusses the economic crisis, the policy response, and the outlook for the future.
Textbook References:
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Page 657 “Bank Runs and the Money Supply”
Pages 664-676 “The Classical Theory of Inflation”
Chapter 33 “Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply”
Chapter 34 “The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand”
Chapter 35 “The Short-Run Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment”
Chapter 36 “Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy”
October 9
A Cautionary Tale
The current discussion of a tax credit for job creation is reminiscent of a Carter-era tax credit.
Textbook References:
Page 7-8 “People Respond to Incentives”
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets Are Usually a Good Way to Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 127-128 “Can Congress Distribute the Burden of a Payroll Tax?”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
October 8
Feldstein on Healthcare Reform
Martin Feldstein offers his solution to the healthcare reform debate.
Textbook References:
Pages 4-5 “Principle 1: People Face trade-offs”
Pages 7-8 “Principle 4: People Respond to Incentives”
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 842-843 “Dealing with Deficits”
October 7
A Tax Credit for New Hiring?
Congress is considering a tax credit for firms that create new jobs. But the issue is not as simple as it appears.
Textbook References:
Page 7-8 “People Respond to Incentives”
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets Are Usually a Good Way to Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 127-128 “Can Congress Distribute the Burden of a Payroll Tax?”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
October 5
A Victory for Mundell-Fleming
The size of the fiscal multiplier depends heavily on whether exchange rates are fixed or flexible.
Textbook References:
Chapter 32 “A Macroeconomic Theory of the Open Economy”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
October 1
Barro on Multipliers Point of View
Robert Barro argues that there is no fiscal multiplier.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
September 25
Back from the Brink
Christina Romer, chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, discusses the parallels between the crises of 1929 and 2008. She argues that the policy response to the current crisis has been much better than the response in 1929.
Textbook References:
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Page 657 “Bank Runs and the Money Supply”
Chapter 33 “Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply”
Chapter 34 “The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand”
Chapter 35 “The Short-Run Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment”
Chapter 36 “Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy”
September 19
Levine on Macro
David Levine accuses Paul Krugman of ignoring advances in modern macroeconomics.
Textbook References:
Pages 494-500 “Behavioral Economics”
Pages 606-610 “Asset Valuation”
Chapter 33 “Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply”
Chapter 34 “The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand”
Chapter 35 “The Short-Run Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment”
Chapter 36 “Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy”
September 17
Kocherlakota on Macro
Narayana Kocherlakota makes ten claims about the state of modern macroeconomics.
Textbook References:
Pages 494-500 “Behavioral Economics”
Pages 606-610 “Asset Valuation”
Chapter 33 “Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply”
Chapter 34 “The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand”
Chapter 35 “The Short-Run Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment”
Chapter 36 “Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy”
September 14
Gordon on Macro
Robert Gordon argues that modern dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models are not relevant to the real world. He suggests a return to a Keynesian model, but one stripped of the short-run Phillips Curve.
Textbook References:
Chapter 33 “Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply”
Chapter 34 “The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand”
Chapter 35 “The Short-Run Trade-off between Inflation and Unemployment”
Chapter 36 “Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy”
September 6
Unemployment Update
Unemployment is higher than the administration predicted.
Textbook References:
Pages 392-399 “The Demand for Labor”
Pages 399-400 “The Supply of Labor”
Pages 400-405 “Equilibrium in the Labor Market”
Chapter 28 “Unemployment”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
September 3
Krugman on Macro
Paul Krugman argues that most macroeconomists have preferred beauty to truth.
Textbook References:
Pages 494-500 “Behavioral Economics”
Pages 606-610 “Asset Valuation”
Pages 751-761 “The Aggregate Supply Curve”
Chapter 34 “The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand”
Pages 817-818 “Rational Expectations and the Possibility of Costless Deflation”
Chapter 36 “Five Debates over Macroeconomic Policy”
August 26
How large is the fiscal hole?
The Concord Coalition projects that the federal debt will grow by $14 trillion over the next decade.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
August 22
Preview of the Midsession Review
Federal debt is expected to increase by $9 trillion over the next decade.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
August 2
The Case for More Inflation
Tyler Cowen reports on Scott Sumner’s proposal that the Fed commit to an inflation rate of 2 to 3 percent.
Textbook References:
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
July 21
The Fed’s Exit Strategy
Ben Bernanke explains how the Fed plans to prevent inflation when the recovery takes hold.
Textbook References:
Chapter 29 “The Monetary System”
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
July 19
Anna Schwartz on the Bernanke Fed
Anna Schwartz thinks Bernanke has confused a crisis of confidence with a shortage of liquidity.
Textbook References:
Pages 576-580 “Financial Institutions in the U.S. Economy”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
July 12
Modern macro even Paul Krugman will love
In a new paper, Lawrence Christiano, Martin Eichenbaum, and Sergio Rebelo find large fiscal-policy multipliers. The results are at odds with many earlier papers.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
July 11
More Fiscal Stimulus?
Paul Krugman makes the case for another stimulus package. Phil Levy makes the case against another package.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
July 10
Miron on Bailouts
Jeff Miron suggests that the government should not have subsidized home ownership to begin with, and should not have bailed out banks after the crash.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets are Usually a Good Way to Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Makin on Homeownership
John Makin argues that the housing bubble was the result of government policy, especially the mortgage interest tax deduction.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets are Usually a Good Way to Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
July 9
Lazear on Fiscal Stimulus
Edward Lazear notes that very little of the stimulus package has actually been spent. He claims that it is primarily an excuse to expand the size of government.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets are Usually a Good Way to Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
July 02
Unemployment Update
The administration predicted that, with its stimulus package, the unemployment rate would be much lower than it actually is.
Textbook References:
Chapter 28 “Unemployment”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
Old Speeches, New Policies
Blogger Mark Thoma uses a speech Mankiw gave six years ago to defend Obama’s deficit spending. But Mankiw’s speech emphasizes that a deficit caused by spending may have a different long-term effect than a deficit caused by tax cuts.
Textbook References:
Pages 7-8 “Principle 4: People Respond to Incentives”
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Pages 842-843 “Dealing with Deficits”
June 23
Financial Crisis Timeline
The New York Fed presents domestic and international timelines for the financial crisis.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 649-653 “Banks and the Money Supply”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
June 08
Randy and Phill
There is a video of former Fed governor Randy Kroszner and former assistant Secretary of the Treasury Phill Swagel as they discuss the policy actions taken during the financial crisis.
Textbook Reference:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 649-653 “Banks and the Money Supply”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
May 30
Ferguson Takes on Krugman
Historian Niall Ferguson argues that the recent rise in interest rate on long-term Treasury bonds is evidence that Krugman is wrong that expansionary fiscal policy will not drive up interest rates.
Textbook Reference:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
May 27
John Taylor is Worried
John Taylor is concerned that the U.S. federal debt is growing too large. Among other things, it jeopardizes the country’s credit rating.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
May 26
More on Negative Interest Rates
Glen Rudebusch of the San Francisco Fed says that to be consistent with the Fed’s past policy, the interest rate would have to be negative five percent by the end of this year.
Textbook References:
Pages 539-541 “Real and Nominal Interest Rates”
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
May 20
The Fiscal Future, Again
A graph from the CBO shows how demographics and rising health-care costs will cause Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid to absorb a much larger share of GDP in the future.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 842-843 “Dealing with Deficits”
May 18
The Fiscal Future
Robert Samuelson worries about the extraordinary amount of deficit spending.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Pages 842-843 “Dealing with Deficits”
May 17
Accountability?
The actual unemployment rate in the past two months has been higher than the administration said it would be with the stimulus bill.
Textbook References:
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
May 12
Measuring Jobs Created or Saved
Congress passed a bill that requires the Council of Economic Advisors to report on the number of jobs saved or created by the stimulus package. It is an impossible task.
Textbook References:
Pages 392-399 “The Demand for Labor”
Pages 399-400 “The Supply of Labor”
Pages 400-405 “Equilibrium in the Labor Market”
Chapter 28 “Unemployment”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
May 11
Negative Interest Rates
The city of Prien am Chiemsee in Bavaria, Germany, employs a local currency that implements one of Mankiw’s suggestions for creating negative interest rates.
Textbook References:
Pages 539-541 “Real and Nominal Interest Rates”
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
May 7
More on Negative Interest Rates
Former central banker Willem Buiter endorses the idea of negative interest rates.
Textbook References:
Pages 539-541 “Real and Nominal Interest Rates”
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
May 5
Inflation or Deflation?
There is a humorous video of a country song that describes the debate about whether we are in danger of deflation or hyperinflation.
Textbook References:
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
An Overview of the Credit Crisis
There is an article that summarizes how the current crisis started, how it spread and the actions taken to counteract it. There are also links to a large number of articles and videos on the same topics. This should be an especially valuable resource for instructors.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets are Usually a Good Way to Organize Economics Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Chapter 26 “Saving, Investment, and the Financial System”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Chapter 33 “Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
May 4
Meltzer vs Krugman
Allan Meltzer is worried that the Fed’s easy money policy will lead to inflation. He is also worried that the Fed has lost its independence. Paul Krugman is worried about falling wages and the possibility of deflation.
Textbook References:
Pages 392-399 “The Demand for Labor”
Pages 399-400 “The Supply of Labor”
Pages 400-405 “Equilibrium in the Labor Market”
Pages 414-422 “Some Determinants of Equilibrium Wages”
Pages 648-649 “The Federal Reserve System”
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
May 1
From the CEA Chair
Christina Romer discusses the causes of the current crisis, the policy actions taken to end the crisis, and the prospects for the future.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 649-653 “Banks and the Money Supply”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Apr. 29
Miron on the Financial Crisis
Jeff Miron argues the case for the government to do nothing in response to the financial crisis.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets are Usually a Good Way to Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 740-742 “Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuations”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Apr. 28
Reis on Macro
There is an hour-long interview with Ricardo Reis. Reis argues that Keynesian models are still useful.
Textbook References:
Chapter 33 “Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply”
Chapter 34 “The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Fed Staff goes Negative
A Fed report says that the ideal interest rate now would be negative 5 percent.
Pages 539-541 “Real and Nominal Interest Rates”
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Apr. 27
Instantaneous Deflation as a Macro Solution
Robert Murphy responds to Mankiw’s argument that we need negative interest rates. He points out that Mankiw’s argument for future inflation is logically equivalent to an instantaneous collapse of prices. Mankiw points out that if prices are sticky, that can’t happen.
Textbook References:
Pages 539-541 “Real and Nominal Interest Rates”
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 755-760 “Why the Aggregate-Supply Curve Slopes Upward in the Short Run”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Apr. 22
More on Negative Interest Rates
Mankiw continues the discussion he started on April 18 about the usefulness of negative interest rates.
Textbook References:
Pages 539-541 “Real and Nominal Interest Rates”
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
Apr. 21
President Obama’s Fiscal Policy
A graph shows projected federal government revenues and spending.
Textbook References:
Pages 242-249 “A Financial Overview of the U.S. Government“
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits“
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?“
Solow on Posner
Robert Solow reviews Richard Posner’s book, A Failure of Capitalism: The Crisis of ’08 and the Descent into Depression. Along the way he provides insightful observations, as one would expect from a Nobel laureate.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets are Usually a Good Way to Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 484-489 “Asymmetric Information”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Apr. 19
Observations on Negative Interest Rates
Mankiw responds to comments about his April 18 post in favor of negative interest rates.
Textbook References:
Pages 539-541 “Real and Nominal Interest Rates”
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
A Quick Quiz
Take a quiz made up of questions from past AP tests.
Textbook References:
Pages 4-5 “Principle 1: People Face Trade-offs”
Chapter 12 “The Design of the Tax System”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Page 614-619 “How is Unemployment Measured?”
Pages 649-653 “Banks and the Money Supply”
Pages 653-656 “The Fed’s Tools of Monetary Control”
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 742-744 “The Assumptions of Classical Economics”
Pages 749-751 “Why the Aggregate–Demand Curve Might Shift”
Pages 753-755 “Why the Long–Run Aggregate–Supply Curve Might Shift”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-797 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Apr. 18
Going Negative
Mankiw argues that the Fed should consider negative interest rates, possibly by creating inflation.
Textbook References:
Pages 539-541 “Real and Nominal Interest Rates”
Chapter 30 “Money Growth and Inflation”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Apr. 16
Meet the Cassandras
Salon lists the 14 biggest critics of Obama’s economic policy, along with a short synopsis of their criticisms.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 649-653 “Banks and the Money Supply”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Apr. 3
Boskin on the Obama Budget
Michael Boskin argues that the Federal budget deficit will be much larger than the administration claims.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Mar. 20
Budget Deficits as a Fraction of GDP
The CBO projects the future of the budget deficit. There’s lots of red ink in our future.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
The Direction of Policy
Alan Blinder argues that Obama is not a socialist. Gary Becker and Kevin Murphy think that Obama’s plan may kill capitalism.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets are Usually a Good Way to Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 740-742 “Three Key Facts About Economic Fluctuations”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Mar. 14
Reading the Tea Leaves on the Budget
Mankiw comments on Obama’s budget proposal, He finds that Obama is serious about climate change but not concerned about budget deficits.
Textbook References:
Chapter 10 “Externalities”
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Mar. 13
The Obama Program
Larry Summers describes the causes of the current crisis, the administration’s response and long-term implications.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets are Usually a Good Way to Organize Economics Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Mar. 9
From the CEA Chair
CEA Chair Christina Romer discusses the lessons from the Great Depression that should guide policy today.
Textbook References:
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
New Keynesian Multipliers
Some recent research suggests that the government spending multiplier is smaller than previously thought.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Mar. 5
Are Fiscal Multipliers Now Big or Small?
Richard Clarida says the fiscal multipliers are small and Christina Romer says they are big.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-797 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget
Mar. 4
P(Depression) = .2
Robert Barro argues that there is a 20% chance of a depression.
Textbook References:
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Mar. 3
CBO on the Stimulus
The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the stimulus plan will have a positive short-run effect but not much long-run effect.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Feb. 28
What is a Deficit Hawk to do?
Obama’s budget document is titled “A New Era of Responsibility.” Mankiw argues that the budget does not seem to live up to its name.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Feb. 27
A Speech From the CEA Chair
CEA Chair Christina Romer Defends the Stimulus Bill.
Textbook References:
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Feb. 26
Which Budget Deficit?
The CBO and the U.S.Treasury have different measures of the cost of TARP, and therefore different measures of the budget deficit.
Textbook References:
Pages 243-248 “The Federal Government”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Feb. 25
Leonhardt vs Obama
Obama says that families making less than $250,000 will not see a tax increase. David Leonhardt says that families making less than $250,000 will have to pay higher taxes.
Textbook References:
Pages 4-5 “Principle 1: People Face Trade-Offs”
Chapter 12 “The Design of the Tax System”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Feb. 24
The Spending Stimulus Debate
Brad DeLong and Michele Boldrin are on opposite sides of the debate over the stimulus.
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Feb. 23
Is Macro Policy Overreacting?
Jeffrey Sachs argues that the current macroeconomic policy is courting disaster in the long run.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Feb. 22
The Fiscal Gap
Alan Auerbach and Bill Gale argue that the long-term fiscal picture for the U.S. is very bleak.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 581-582 “Some Important Identities”
Pages 589-593 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance Its Budget?”
Feb. 12
The Budget Balance
Mankiw presents a chart showing the federal budget deficit or surplus as a fraction of GDP for the period since 1980. It shows that the projected budget deficit for this year is quite large.
Textbook References:
Pages 589-591 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits and Surpluses”
Pages 591-593 “The History of U.S. Government Debt”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-797 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Feb. 11
Ray Fair on Stimulus
Ray Fair reports that his macroeconomic model predicts that the stimulus bill will create short-run gains and long-run pain.
Textbook References:
Pages 246-248 “The Fiscal Challenge Ahead”
Pages 589-591 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits and Surpluses”
Pages 591-593 “The History of U.S. Government Debt”
Pages 724-728 “Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Feb. 10
Becker and Murphy on Fiscal Stimulus
Gary Becker and Kevin Murphy suggest that the stimulus plan has many defects.
Textbook References:
Pages 4-5 “Principle 1: People Face Trade-offs”
Pages 7-8 “Principle 4: People Respond to Incentives”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Feb. 9
The Problem with Shovel Ready
Popular Mechanics explains why smart, bold infrastructure projects can’t be ready in 90 days.
Textbook Reference:
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Feb.8
Christy Romer on Face the Nation
There is a link to a video of Christy’s Romer’s appearance on Face the Nation. She discusses the stimulus plan.
Textbook References:
Pages 649-657 “Banks and the Money Supply”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Feb. 6
The Mature Keynesian Perspective II
Keynes would’ve approved a cut in the payroll tax now.
Textbook References:
Page 127 “Can Congress Distribute the Burden of a Payroll Tax?”
Pages 243-245 “The Federal Government: Receipts”
Page 770 “The Origins of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
The Japanese Fiscal Experiment
There is a link to a New York Times article about the use of infrastructure spending in Japan as a fiscal stimulus.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Feb. 5
My preferred fiscal stimulus
Mankiw gives his own view of what should be done.
Textbook References:
Pages 210-212 “Market-Based Policy 1: Corrective Taxes and Subsidies”
Pages 216-217 “The Case for Taxing Carbon”
Chapter 12 “The Design of the Tax System”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Interview with Robert Barro
There is a link to an interview of Robert Barro by The Atlantic
Textbook References:
Pages 7-8 “People Respond to Incentives”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Page 793 “How Fiscal Policy Might Affect Aggregate Supply”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Feb. 4
Feldstein on Fiscal Stimulus
There are links to two newspaper articles by Martin Feldstein. In the first he makes a case for a fiscal stimulus. In the second he argues that the current fiscal stimulus proposal is poorly put together and will not have the intended effect.
Textbook References:
Pages 32-33 “Why Economists’ Advice is not Always Followed”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Feb. 2
Rivlin on Stimulus
Alice Rivlin, former head of the CBO, suggests what a good stimulus plan would look like.
Textbook References:
Chapter 12 “The Design of the Tax System”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
White House Talking Points
Brad DeLong posted Congressional Republicans’ analysis of CEA chair Christina Romer’s ideas. Mankiw comments on the discussion.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Feb. 1
Cole and Ohanian on the New Deal
There is a link to an article in the Wall Street Journal that argues that the New Deal did not help end the Great Depression.
Textbook References:
Pages 765-766 “Two Big Shifts in Aggregate Demand: The Great Depression and World War II”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Jan. 30
Temporary, Timely and Targeted – Not!
David Brooks argues that Larry Summers has advocated a stimulus plan that is temporary, timely and targeted. Yet despite Summers becoming an economic advisor to Obama, the proposed fiscal stimulus contains large permanent, untimely and untargeted provisions.
Textbook References:
Pages 32-33 “Why Economists’ Advice is not Always Followed”
Pages 589-591 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits and Surpluses”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Jan. 27
CBO on Fiscal Policy Lags
The CBO reports the time-path of government spending under the proposed stimulus plan.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Jan. 26
The Mature Keynesian Perspective
Mario Rizzo points out that even Keynes thought infrastructure spending might take too long.
Textbook References:
Page 770 “The Origins of Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Cochrane on Fiscal Stimulus
John Cochrane makes the case against fiscal stimulus. Brad DeLong accuses him of making a “freshman mistake.”
Textbook References:
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Listen to me Squawk
There is a link to a video of an interview with Mankiw about the current efforts to revive the economy.
Textbook References:
Pages 7-8 “Principle 4: People Respond to Incentives”
Pages 230-232 “The Difficult Job of Cost-Benefit Analysis”
Pages 654-655 “The Financial Crisis of 2008”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Jan. 23
Huizinga, Lucas and Murphy
There is a link to a University of Chicago panel discussion of the proposed fiscal stimulus.
Textbook References:
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Jan. 21
Alesina and Zingales on Fiscal Stimulus
Two economists suggest that extending unemployment insurance and cutting taxes would be better than spending on public projects.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Jan. 20
The Long Lags of Fiscal Policy
Mankiw posts an article from the AP reporting that the CBO thinks the infrastructure projects in the stimulus plan will not affect the economy for some time.
Textbook Reference:
Pages 830-832 “Con: Policymakers Should Not Try to Stabilize the Economy”
Mountford and Uhlig on Fiscal Policy
Mankiw posts a link to a paper he mentioned on December 1 that is now an NBER Working Paper. It argues that tax cuts work better than increased spending.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Jan. 19
There is a link to Gary Becker’s blog where he explains why the stimulus package will not work.
Textbook References:
Pages 589- 591 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets Are Usually A Good Way To Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 589- 591 “Policy 3: Government Budget Deficits”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Jan. 13
Mankiw responds to a question about comparing the short-run benefits of fiscal stimulus to the long-term costs of higher taxes to pay for the stimulus.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets Are Usually A Good Way To Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Chapter 8 “Application: The Costs of Taxation”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
There is a link to an editorial by Ed Glaeser that argues that the stimulus should be focused on ordinary people. That implies that a cut in the payroll tax would be better than large construction projects that disproportionately help owners of big construction firms.
Textbook References:
Pages 254-255 “Vertical Equity”
Chapter 20 “Income Inequality and Poverty”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Jan. 11
None
Jan. 12
There are links to a blog by Gary Becker and an editorial by Kevin Hasset. Both doubt the wisdom of the proposed stimulus plan.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets Are Usually A Good Way To Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Jan. 10
Mankiw reports that Obama’s economic team holds the orthodox position that the government spending multiplier is bigger that the tax multiplier. That runs counter to recent research by Christina Romer and David Romer.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Dec. 31
Open Market Operations in Equities
Roger Farmer suggests that the Fed should buy some stock to stabilize the equities markets in a manner akin to its open market operations in the bond market.
Textbook References:
Pages 576-578 “Financial Markets”
Pages 653-658 “The Fed’s Tools of Monetary Control”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Dec. 30
The IMF on Fiscal Policy
There is a link to a report from the IMF titled “Fiscal Policy for the Crisis.”
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Dec. 27
The Seeds of the Current Crisis
The is a link to an editorial by Tyler Cowen that argues that the bailout in 1998 of Long-Term Capital Management sent the wrong signals.
Textbook References:
Pages 7-8 “Principle 4: People Respond to Incentives”
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets Are Usually A Good Way To Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 830-832 “Con: Policymakers Should Not Try To Stabilize the Economy”
Summers on the Obama Plan
There is a link to an editorial by Larry Summers that argues that stimulus spending should focus on investment rather than consumption.
Textbook Reference:
Chapter 25 “Production and Growth”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Lindsey on Stimulus
Larry Lindsey prefers tax cuts to more government spending.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Dec. 26
Mankiw posts a letter from David Backus that details the problems with stimulus spending.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Dec. 25
Merry Christmas
There is a humorous, Christmas-themed video of all the government’s efforts to fix the financial crisis.
Textbook References:
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Dec. 24
Feldstein on Defense Spending
There is a link to an editorial by Martin Feldstein that argues that a significant share of new government spending should be for defense.
Textbook References:
Pages 227-232 “Public Goods”
Pages 242-248 “A Financial Overview of the U.S. Government”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Dec. 23
A Primer on Quantitative Easing
There is a video that does an excellent job of explaining the Fed’s current strategy.
Textbook References:
Pages 649-658 “Banks and the Money Supply”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Robert Lucas on the Economy
There is a link to an editorial by Robert Lucas where he argues that monetary policy should be preferred to fiscal policy.
Textbook References:
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Dec. 20
Another Stimulus Spending Skeptic
Mankiw posts a letter arguing that the government cannot efficiently increase its spending quickly.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets Are Usually A Good Way To Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 830-832 “Con: Policymakers Should Not Try To Stabilize the Economy”
Let the Rent Seeking Begin
Mankiw posts a link to a story illustrating how lobbyist will influence how any new government spending is allocated.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets Are Usually A Good Way To Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 830-832 “Con: Policymakers Should Not Try To Stabilize the Economy”
Dec. 18
Stimulus Policy Skeptics
Mankiw presents the case against a fiscal policy stimulus, mostly by links to his previous posts.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Two Views of Housing Policy
There is a link to an editorial by Glenn Hubbard and Chris Mayer that argues in favor of more government action to reduce mortgage interest rates. There is also a link to an editorial by Ed Glaeser and Joe Gyourko that argues that such a policy is the cause of the current crisis.
Textbook References:
Pages 8-10 “Principle 6: Markets Are Usually A Good Way To Organize Economic Activity”
Pages 10-12 “Principle 7: Governments Can Sometimes Improve Market Outcomes”
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Page 821 “Bernanke’s Challenges”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Dec. 11
Spending and Tax Multipliers
There are links to 8 articles that examine the size of multipliers for government spending and for tax changes.
Textbook References:
Pages 788-790 “The Multiplier Effect”
Pages 792-793 “Changes in Taxes”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Dec. 8
Discretionary Fiscal Policy
There are links to articles by Alan Blinder and John Taylor that discuss the pros and cons of discretionary fiscal policy.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Hail & Woodward on Stimulus Options
There is a link to an article by Bob Hail and Susan Woodward on various options for stimulating the economy.
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 830-832 “Should Monetary and Fiscal Policymakers Try To Stabilize the Economy?
Dec. 5
Deflation Alert
Mankiw suggests that deflation has become more likely.
Textbook Reference:
Pages 682-683 “The Wizard of Oz and the Free-Silver Debate”
Pages 835-838 “Should the Central Bank Aim for Zero Inflation?”
Listen to me Squawk
There is a video of Mankiw discussing the current economic crisis.
Textbook References:
Pages 788-790 “The Multiplier Effect”
Pages 792-793 “Changes in Taxes”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Dec. 2
Kudlow & Company
There is a link to a video that shows an interview with Greg Mankiw. He discusses the empirical work mentioned on Dec.1 that shows that a tax cut may have a bigger impact than government spending.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Dec. 1
Fiscal Policy Puzzles
Recent empirical work suggests that unexpected deficit-financed tax cuts have a bigger effect on the economy than an equivalent deficit-financed increase in government spending. This result runs counter to the standard Keynesian model.
Textbook References:
Pages 787-793 “How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
Passing the Buck
How much should we worry about the government’s debt? Should we prefer creative monetary policy to fiscal policy? There are links to non-academic articles by Dean Baker, Paul Krugman, and Greg Mankiw as well as a speech Ben Bernanke gave in 2002.
Text Book References:
Pages 778-787 “How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand”
Pages 793-796 “Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy”
Pages 838-841 “Should the Government Balance its Budget?”
