Anchored in Uncertainty: All Eyes on July 9 Tariff Snapback

Trans‑Pacific Spot Rates Hold, but Volume Signals Flatline

Last week, President Donald Trump announced that he does not plan to extend the 90-day pause on tariffs for most nations beyond July 9, marking a firm deadline and keeping global trade uncertainty in play.

“We’ll look at how a country treats us — are they good, are they not so good — some countries we don’t care, we’ll just send a high number out”- President Trump on Sunday Morning Futures.

That looming expiration has rippled across the market. As of July 1, Silq’s Spot Rate Index shows continued declines into LA/LB, while rates into Chicago and NY/NJ appear to be leveling off. The chart below illustrates the sharp drop since May, despite carriers’ attempts to push GRIs and manipulate volume.

U.S. import volumes are telling the real story. According to Xeneta: 

• China–U.S. imports dropped 28.5% YoY in May, the sharpest drop since early 2020. 
• Blank sailings still exceed 30% of planned Asia-West Coast voyages. 

Carriers are attempting to push GRIs, but those efforts are colliding with weak volumes and importer skepticism. Cathy Morrow Roberson notes that the current cargo bump into West Coast ports is “short-lived,” driven by a rush ahead of the July 9 tariff deadline, not organic peak-season demand. It’s a defensive maneuver, not a signal of recovery.

And here’s the absurd twist: East Coast spot rates are now nearly identical to rates into Chicago, which include ocean freight into LA/LB, rail across the U.S., and inland handling. That’s the cost of avoiding the Suez Canal–vessels rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope are now pricing on par with full transcontinental intermodal. It’s irrational, yet entirely real.

That could be changing. According to EU mission commander Rear Admiral Vasileios Gryparis, marine traffic in the Red Sea has increased by 60% since Houthi targeting narrowed, with 36-37 ships transiting daily, still below the pre-crisis average of 72–75 ships per day. 

At the same time, maritime war-risk premiums have eased from around 0.5% to 0.35-0.45% of cargo value, according to Reuters, indicating reduced perceived risk.

Gryparis, who oversees the EU’s Aspides naval mission, told Reuters that if current stability continues, eastbound transits via the Suez could resume within weeks, barring any sudden escalation.

Europe in Flux: Tariffs Trigger Trade Flow Shifts

While the trans-Pacific market softens, capacity is surging elsewhere. Peter Sand, Chief Analyst at Xeneta, notes:

“We are looking at record-breaking container shipping capacity leaving the Far East for North Europe this week… This suggests a nervous market, but the demand must also be there to put upward pressure on rates.” 

The broader risk? A pricing collapse. As Roberson highlights, HSBC projects a decline in carrier earnings over the next three years, warning that overcapacity could trigger an “aggressive price war.” With tariffs still in play and volumes underwhelming, carriers may soon be forced to chase volume at any cost.

So while trans-Pacific rates appear to be stabilizing, the market remains anything but calm. There’s no true peak season–only delay, distortion, and the potential for another sharp reset. 

Silq’s Take: Placeholders, Not Peaks

We haven’t hit a real summer surge–just a brief breather. Importers are hesitant. Carriers are bluffing. And the real test comes on July 9.

Recommendations:

• Stay flexible: Avoid locking into long-term rate contracts now.
• Plan inland smart: LA + transload remains the best tactical option.
• Watch Suez closely: A reopened route could see rates to the US East Coast drop fast

Asia’s Ports Under Strain: Anchorage Queues Mount as Bottlenecks Build

While freight rates find their floor, port fluidity in Asia is quietly deteriorating. Carriers may be blanking sailings to manage capacity, but rising anchorage queues and growing chassis delays are signaling a new drag on velocity – one that importers can’t ignore.

Port Watch – As of Week 26:

• Singapore: 37 vessels at anchorage awaiting berth. Transshipment delays now range from 7 to 14 days. (JOC)
• Port Klang: 19 vessels at anchorage. Vessel waiting times are creeping up to 1.5 days, with yard utilization at 85%. (K+N)
• Shanghai–Ningbo Complex: 153 vessels at anchorage, up from 146 the prior week. Delays are spilling into feeder traffic and causing early booking cutoffs. (K+N)

Anchorage counts serve as a leading indicator: when queues grow, expect feeder ships to miss sailings, chassis to back up, and port-centric delays to crawl into inland gateways.

Equipment Crunch: 40’HC Containers & Chassis in Short Supply as reported by Explorate

• Blank sailings and post-Q1 capacity pulls have triggered 40’HC container shortages–notably in Vietnam’s Laem Chabang–and slowed chassis/empty pickups.
• Meanwhile, Singapore, Ho Chi Minh, and major southern Chinese ports are seeing longer empty-turn delays, making export planning unpredictable.

This isn’t just port congestion–it’s equipment bottlenecking, which can kill export schedules even if space on the vessel exists.

Velocity Loss Isn’t Local – It’s Global

What starts as a vessel queue in Asia doesn’t stay there for long. Feeder delays in Singapore or Shanghai ripple outward, causing missed transshipment windows, postponed cutoffs, and ultimately delayed arrivals in the U.S.

The knock-on effects are stacking up:

• Drayage is idling as vessels miss schedule and containers sit unavailable for pickup.
• Empty returns stall at origin, slowing container repo, creating empty yards.
• Export-ready loads get stranded at the port, stuck in congestion, while costs tick upward on storage, chassis, and the most important of all, missing tariff deadlines.

It’s not just a slowdown—it’s a supply chain time trap. 

Silq’s Take: Failing to Plan is Planning to Fail

Congestion is a hidden cost that often gets overlooked by importers who are too focused on rates. With rates easing, port congestion across major trans-shipment hubs could be the evil lurking in the dark, causing a spike in rates and plans to go awry. We recommend importers:

1. Secure chassis and containers early, especially in Southeast Asia.
2. Strategically split shipments across ports. Consider backups like Kaohsiung or Manila to lighten the load at primary hubs.
3. Build in 7-14 days of buffer when booking transpacific sailings; congestion delays are now part of the norm.

Tariff Snapback Playbook: Preparing for the July 9 Fallout

“I’m not extending the pause.” With that single line, President Trump triggered a countdown. Unless something changes fast, a broad set of U.S. tariffs on imported goods, including many consumer categories, will snap back into effect on July 9. No exemptions. No backdoors.

And importers aren’t ready.

This isn’t just a rate hike; it’s a ripple effect. If tariffs return, importers will face increased duty exposure, rerouting dilemmas, CBP enforcement spikes, and last-mile compliance headaches. We’ve seen this before but this time, the window is tighter, and the cost of delay is steeper.

Despite public references to “Trade Deal 3.0” as recently as last week by President Trump, there has been no formal announcement, no USTR filing, and no new deal structure disclosed – just political signaling. The result? Planning paralysis.

What importers are facing isn’t a sudden reinstatement of all China tariffs on July 9, those 25% duties have been in place for some time. Instead, the expiration of the pause primarily affects List 4A exemptions, targeting certain non-Chinese origin goods and products rerouted through other countries.

At the same time, CBP is aggressively cracking down on country-of-origin misclassification, increasing audits and escalating fines. Enforcement on Section 321 small parcel imports and valuation abuses continues unabated, hitting importers who rely on low-value shipments to minimize duty exposure.

The Enforcement Landscape Is Already Shifting:

• CBP conducted 4,578 trade enforcement actions in Q2 FY25, up from 3,241 in Q2 FY24—a 41.2% increase year-over-year.
• Brokers are raising fees. Reuters reports an additional $1-$5 per code to account for classification volatility and tariff uncertainty 

Volume Tactics Aren’t Enough: Industry experts like Cathy Morrow Roberson believe that the late-June cargo bump isn’t organic demand, but “a defensive pull-forward” to beat the July 9 deadline. However, that playbook only buys time, not safety. If tariffs land, Q3 becomes a compliance test, not a rate game.

Silq sees two main areas of risk forming fast:

1. Classification Risk: Most importers haven’t revisited HTS codes or COO documentation, despite repeated warning signals from the White House. However, the U.S. CBP has.
2. Routing Compression: A surge into Vietnam, India, and Thailand will strain capacity. Expect longer lead times, box shortages, and inland rate inflation across Southeast Asia

Silq’s Take: It’s Time to Scenario Plan–Fast 

The goal isn’t to predict the future. It’s to be unshaken by it. You don’t need to bet on whether tariffs land, you just need to have pre-wired lanes and fallback options if they do.

How Silq Edge Helps

Silq Edge empowers importers to stay ahead of tariff risk by verifying supplier origins, modeling landed cost impact SKU-by-SKU, and vetting compliant fallback suppliers in alternative sourcing regions. It’s your tool to build resilient, tariff-proof supply chains, before the clock runs out.