The Great Divide: How Tariff Uncertainty is Affecting Importers Differently

Overview:

1. Import Volumes Were Up in H1 2025 — But Only for Larger Importers
2. Tariff Watch: Deadline Delayed, Uncertainty Extended
3. Volume Momentum in H2 2025 Reverses After Artificial Peak

1. Import Volumes Were Up in H1 2025 — But Only for Larger Importers

U.S. containerized imports rose by 4% year-over-year in the first half of 2025. On paper, it’s a sign of steady recovery. In practice, the rebound was selective and uneven, shaped more by structural advantage than by broad-based demand. Our analysis of over 110,000 importers (ranked by volume) reveals a striking pattern: the growth was highly concentrated among mid-sized and large shippers. These operators moved quickly to pull forward inventory ahead of anticipated tariff actions and had the financial and logistical muscle to absorb risk.

 Smaller importers, especially those moving fewer than 10 containers, faced contraction in both volume and value. This wasn’t a marketwide recovery. It was a freight reordering, where those with scale, certainty, and proper category exposure pulled ahead.

Volume and Value Growth Skewed to the Top

Note: The sharp drop in value among 'very small' importers likely reflects the retreat of low-volume, high-declared-value strategies (such as Section 321 exploitation). That activity distorted 2024 baselines and did not repeat in 2025, creating an outsized anomaly.

Sector-Level Performance

Top 5 Gaining Industries

Top 5 Declining Industries

Visual Summary

Industry Shifts: Who Pulled Ahead and Why

Retail and food-linked industries accounted for nearly all of the net TEU growth in H1 2025. These sectors had both the urgency and liquidity to pull forward inventory ahead of regulatory risk. Specialty retailers (e.g., Walmart, Target) and broadline distributors (e.g., Synnex, Tech Data) experienced substantial gains in volume and value. On the other hand, capital-intensive and discretionary categories experienced net outflows. Enterprise retail, automotive, industrial equipment, and high-value electronics collectively cut over 250,000 TEUs and $20B in import value. This suggests a strategic retreat from overstocking and a wait-and-see posture amidst tariff volatility.

Policy Context: Scale Moves First

Policy uncertainty influenced H1 activity. While no new tariffs were formally implemented in H1, the noise was enough. Larger importers booked early, hedging against escalation. Smaller shippers couldn’t afford to do the same, whether financially or operationally. Policy enforcement also tightened around practices like Section 321 usage, which historically enabled small importers to stay competitive with high-value, low-volume shipping. With that loophole constricted, smaller importers lost a key lever.

Silq’s Take

This wasn’t a market-wide rebound. It was a freight realignment, where access to capital, information, and early booking privileges made all the difference. Large and mid-sized importers were rewarded for moving fast and planning aggressively. Smaller shippers, often reactive and rate-dependent, were deprioritized.

What SMB and Mid-Market Importers Should Take Away

1. Move early — even without complete visibility. Bigger players booked on partial forecasts. You can too.

2. Partner for leverage. Aggregation through 3PLs and NVOs is no longer optional — it’s your ticket to access.

3. Treat space as strategic. Prioritize high-urgency SKUs even if you're not ready for full-season planning.

4. Rethink landed cost. It’s not just about the freight rate — it’s about delivery certainty.

2. Tariff Watch: Deadline Delayed, Uncertainty Extended

President Trump extended the “Liberation Day” pause to August 1, issuing formal tariff letters to a wide range of trade partners, including Mexico, Canada, Japan, South Korea, and the EU, with proposed duties ranging from 20% to 40%. 

As of mid-July, however, no implementation notice has been published in the Federal Register. Importers are navigating political signals without regulatory clarity.

What the Data Is Really Telling Us:

1. This is a message to China, just not a direct one. The July tariff letters weren’t about penalizing the biggest exporters. They were about rerouting pressure. By targeting Mexico, Vietnam, and South Korea — countries deeply tied to Chinese supply chains — the U.S. is choking the side channels. It’s not a direct escalation with Beijing. It’s a warning shot to everyone enabling avoidance.
2. Most importers are on a holding pattern. With no Federal Register notice published, there’s no legal trigger to act — yet no guarantee one won’t appear with minimal warning. Many importers are opting to wait for formal clarity before adjusting supplier strategy or rerouting cargo. But that window could close quickly, turning caution into scramble.
3. Uncertainty now blankets most U.S. trade lanes. Over 75% of the U.S.'s goods imports in 2024 came from countries that have either received formal tariff letters (Mexico, Canada, EU, Japan, South Korea) that could undergo further change, or are under an ambiguous status (China, Vietnam, India, Taiwan). The volume of trade operating in a wait‑and‑watch zone is unprecedented and growing.
4.  BRICS nations aren’t staying quiet.

President Trump’s July threats didn’t just rattle U.S. allies; they lit a fuse across BRICS. 

• India filed for retaliatory duties at the WTO.
• Brazil’s president dismissed the U.S. stance as “imperial”.
• Local currencies, including the rupee, dipped on fears of escalation. 

The risk isn’t just bilateral blowback. It’s a multilateral stare-down, with global supply chains caught in the middle.

Silq’s Take:

Peak season is in a holding pattern. Importers paused in July and August — not due to weak demand, but because of landed cost uncertainty driven by tariffs. Blockbuster summer sales from Amazon, Shopify, and others confirm consumer appetite remains strong. Holiday volumes haven’t moved yet,  but we believe they will, with a surge in September-October as shippers turn to air freight and fast boats to make up for lost time ahead of holiday deadlines.

3. Volume Momentum in H2 2025 Reverses After Artificial Peak

What looked like the start of a strong peak season in May and June has begun to unwind. Container volumes into the Port of Los Angeles surged for several weeks as importers moved quickly to front-load shipments ahead of potential tariff increases. But by mid-July, both confirmed bookings and port arrival projections suggest that the market is cooling — and doing so with surprising speed.

Volume Build-Up Followed by Step-Down

Between Week 21 and Week 27 (late May to early July), weekly loaded imports at the Port of LA rose more than 30%, peaking at nearly 135,000 TEUs:

Since then, volumes have reversed course:

The forecasted arrival for early August would represent a full return to early-June levels — effectively wiping out the gains from the prior six-week surge.

Booking Data Supports the Retreat

The FreightWaves Inbound Ocean TEU Volume Index (IOTI) for China–U.S. routes dropped from ~1,070 in early July to 929.53 by mid-month, a 13% decline in future scheduled departures. Because port arrivals lag confirmed bookings by several weeks, this dip suggests further softening in volumes into mid-to-late August.

Carrier Adjustments Reflect Mounting Pressure

In parallel, ocean carriers are beginning to reverse course after aggressively adding capacity in May and June. According to eeSea data published in the Journal of Commerce, carriers are reducing Asia–US West Coast capacity by 6.2% month-over-month in August, equivalent to ~98,000 TEUs. The blank sailing rate in May hit 26% of scheduled capacity (262,000 TEUs), before easing to 9.5% in June as demand rebounded temporarily. MSC suspended its Pearl service to Long Beach, with the final sailing departing Xiamen on July 13. Across the board, carriers are now rebalancing networks to offset an emerging overhang in supply, driven by softening retail forecasts and the tail end of the tariff reprieve surge.

Importers Are Stepping Back

Behind the volume swings is a more cautious posture from importers. One of Silq’s largest customers — a shipper of over 280 TEUs in 2024 — summarized it candidly: “Things are very much in flux for us right now due to tariffs... Many of our biggest customers are delayed on their decision process this year. We are hoping to gain some clarity on things over the coming months.”

Silq’s Take

This is not a normal seasonal cycle. The market pulled forward — aggressively — and is now dealing with the comedown. Weekly port volumes are falling. Bookings are retreating. And carriers are trimming capacity to preserve rate stability. Importers are not pausing because demand collapsed — they’re pausing because the risk of mistiming another reorder is now greater than the risk of missing space. Unless a new demand catalyst emerges in Q3, the outlook for August is one of continued softening — not collapse, but recalibration.