Arctic Security, Russia's Plans till 2035, Gender in the Arctic and Arctic Learning Resources
Alexandra Middleton
Arctic and Sustainability Researcher| Sustainability reporting, ESG, TNFD, TCFD | Science Diplomacy. Hydrogen economy in the Arctic | Citizen Science Ambassador for Finland | Fulbright Arctic Initiative Fellow
Dear readers,
I am happy to welcome all 1,400 of you with interest in the Arctic research and affairs. This issue covers current developments and research that is crucial for the Arctic.
Arctic Ambitions: How NATO's Northern Enlargement is Rewriting Global Security
The recent accession of Finland and Sweden to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is forcing a strategic realignment in the Arctic, a region increasingly fraught with geopolitical tension and the escalating impacts of climate change. hosted by the International Team for the Study of Security (ITSS) Verona brought together leading experts to dissect the evolving security landscape, highlighting a complex interplay of military posturing, hybrid threats, and the urgent need to address environmental and human security.
The primary theme emerging from the discussion is NATO's decisive pivot to the north. With seven of the eight Arctic states now under its security umbrella, the alliance's strategic compass has shifted, viewing the High North as both a potential "Achilles' heel" and a critical frontier. "The inclusion of two more Arctic states into NATO has clearly shifted NATO's focus," said Marco Dordoni , an analyst at ITSS Verona, noting the region's prominence in recent NATO strategic documents.
However, a key challenge lies in the operational integration of its new Nordic members. While Finland and Sweden bring formidable cold-weather capabilities, their defense structures have historically been oriented towards the Baltic Sea, a vastly different operational environment from the deep waters of the Arctic Ocean. Furthermore, the alliance faces a significant capabilities gap compared to Russia in the region.
From Moscow's perspective, NATO's expansion is viewed with a mixture of defensiveness and pessimism. Pavel Devyatkin a senior associate at The Arctic Institute, explained that Russia's Arctic policy is rooted in protecting its sovereignty, securing vast economic interests including the Northern Sea Route and natural resources and maintaining its great-power status.
While President Vladimir Putin initially downplayed the immediate threat from Finnish and Swedish membership, Moscow's rhetoric has since hardened. Russian officials now point to increased NATO military activity as a source of growing conflict potential. "Recent developments show that in fact it is the western Arctic states that are militarizing the Arctic," Devyatkin said, summarizing the Russian viewpoint. This has led to announcements of increased Russian military personnel in the region.
Despite the heightened military posturing, a degree of pragmatism persists, particularly modeled on the Norway-Russia relationship, which has maintained cooperation on issues like fisheries management even amidst broader tensions.
The "Other" Security Crisis: Climate and People
Dr. Gabriella Gricius , a research associate at The Arctic Institute warned that the intense focus on military matters overshadows the dire environmental and human security crises unfolding in the region.
Dr. Gricius challenged the prevailing narrative, questioning the purpose of "sustainable development for whom?" and cautioning that development is increasingly viewed through a military lens. She urged a reframing of the discourse, moving away from "great power competition" tropes to one that prioritizes the climate emergency and the lived experiences of Arctic residents. This requires actively "mythbusting" narratives of an "Arctic scramble" and empowering local and Indigenous voices to set the agenda. "The future of the Arctic shouldn't be just determined by political leaders," Gricius concluded, "but rather it should reflect the needs, values, and knowledge of Arctic communities that know the region best."
Russia’s Arctic Development Plans till 2035
Russia outlined an ambitious development plan for its Arctic territories through 2035, relying on over 35 trillion rubles from its largest companies to transform the region into a global economic and logistics hub, according to a May 21 address to the State Duma.
The strategy hinges on two core axes: massive expansion of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and comprehensive urban development to support it. The goal is to bolster an area that already generates 7.5% of Russia’s GDP and retain the 2.5 million people living there.
Future development plans focus heavily on tangible infrastructure targets. As part of NSR development over the next five years, Russia plans to build:
To make the region viable for its workforce, Moscow is launching master plans for 16 key Arctic settlements, home to 1.6 million people. These plans will mobilize up to 3.7 trillion rubles by 2035, with 60% coming from private investment. Key social programs are being extended to 2030, including a 2% mortgage rate and a program offering free "Arctic Hectare" land plots.
With thawing permafrost projected to reduce ground-bearing capacity by up to 60% by 2050, a federal plan to adapt infrastructure is expected by year-end. To advance its technological presence, Moscow is also promoting its "Snezhinka" international research station, citing interest from BRICS partners like China and India for collaboration. (source: here)
China Cements Arctic Role with Russian Fleet Deal
Ties between Moscow and Beijing are deepening by concrete investments in strategic infrastructure that bypass Western economic pressure. In a significant move that illustrates this "no-limits" partnership, a Chinese logistics firm is co-investing with Russia's state nuclear energy giant, Rosatom, to build a dedicated fleet of ice-class vessels for the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
The partnership is a pragmatic solution for both nations. For Russia, facing international isolation and a capital crunch, Chinese investment is a lifeline to realize its long-held ambition of turning the NSR into a viable, year-round international shipping corridor. For China, it's a strategic investment in a trade route that is over 30% faster than the traditional Suez Canal passage, securing a vital logistics channel outside the choke points controlled by Western powers.
The deal announced in Khabarovsk, where Chinese firm LEDOCO will build five ice-class container ships with Rosatom, is an example of this deepening relationship: a fusion of Chinese capital and manufacturing power with Russian resources and strategic geography, creating new realities on the ground and at sea. (source: here)
Special Economic Zone Status and Tax Breaks Fuel Billions in Investment for Russia's Arctic Port
The Murmansk region has attracted over 547 billion rubles ($5.5 billion) in committed private investment through special Arctic economic zones, with 269 billion rubles already injected into strategic projects, Governor Andrey Chibis said on Monday, May 19th.
The capital, from 306 resident companies leveraging federal tax breaks, has so far created over 5,800 jobs. The funds are backing major logistical and energy hubs, including a massive LNG construction facility and the new Lavna coal port, both recently inaugurated by President Vladimir Putin. While large-scale industrial projects anchor the investment, officials noted the highest number of individual projects are in the growing tourism and services sectors.
Why Do We Need Gender Data in the Arctic?
A new report highlights a fundamental challenge impeding sustainable development across the Arctic: a severe and widespread lack of reliable data on how social and environmental shifts impact people differently based on their gender.
Without this crucial information, efforts to create equitable policies and address deep-seated inequalities are essentially flying blind. The study, "Gender and Disaggregated Data in the Arctic Region," makes clear that to build a sustainable future for the region’s inhabitants, we must first be able to see the full picture. Two of my colleagues Rikke Østergaard and Karen Everett have contributed to this report
The Challenge: An Incomplete and Inconsistent Picture
The report identifies several critical shortcomings in the current approach to data across the Arctic:
A lack of unified standards for data collection results in a patchy and unreliable evidence base. What is gathered in one country is often not comparable to another, and frequently, basic data disaggregated by sex is incorrectly labeled as comprehensive gender data.
Even when valuable data exists, it is often scattered across various agencies and websites, making it difficult for researchers and communities to access. This creates inefficiencies and burdens small Arctic communities with repetitive requests for information.
Current data collection methods are overwhelmingly based on a binary view of gender (male/female), rendering non-binary individuals invisible and often failing to reflect the diverse understanding of gender within Indigenous cultures.
For many Indigenous communities, historical data collection was an oppressive colonial tool. This has created a legacy of deep-seated mistrust that modern research practices must actively work to repair by respecting community data sovereignty and knowledge.
The Way Forward: Building an Equitable Foundation of Knowledge
Addressing these challenges requires a fundamental shift from extractive research to a collaborative and respectful framework. The new report by SDWG outlines four key actions:
A concerted effort is needed to work with national statistics agencies to harmonize data collection and create a single, publicly accessible database for Arctic data.
Research must be reconceptualized as a relationship-building process. This involves co-creating projects with local and Indigenous communities to ensure the work is relevant, beneficial, and respects their ownership and control over their own data.
To understand the full human experience, we must look beyond quantitative spreadsheets. Integrating qualitative methods, oral histories, and traditional Indigenous knowledge is essential for creating nuanced and culturally relevant policies.
Gender mainstreaming should not be an afterthought but a mandatory component of all Arctic research and policy development, from initial design to final implementation.
Focus on Greenland
As part of the reportt a study by Rikke Østergaard reveals significant underrepresentation of women in Greenland's political leadership, a deep-seated inequality often masked by superficial "Nordic-style" equality policies. The research identifies the primary causes as a convergence of colonial legacy, stark regional divides between urban and rural areas, and the societal dominance of traditionally male-centric sectors like fishing, which collectively limit institutional support for women in politics.
To address this, Østergaard recommends concrete structural interventions, such as the implementation of gender quotas for political parties, initially voluntary, then legally mandated with a "sunset clause" to evaluate their impact. The core recommendation is for policymakers to abandon the simple imitation of external Danish models and instead develop context-specific solutions tailored to Greenland's unique cultural and demographic landscape.
Arctic Learning Resources
Discovering the Arctic
“Discovering the Arctic" is an interactive educational resource designed for schools, offering a guided tour across the top of the world. Its primary purpose is to help users learn about the Arctic its people, places, and environment often referred to as "the roof of the world."
The resource explores how the region is changing through the direct insights of those who live and work there. To achieve this, each section is enriched with engaging features, including activities, images, video clips, and detailed fact sheets.
To provide a comprehensive understanding, the site is structured around a wide range of key topics:
Social and Environmental Leadership in the Arctic
An opportunity is available to participate in an online course focused on the multifaceted challenges of the Arctic region.
The course, titled "Social and Environmental Leadership in the Arctic," is offered by the University of Iceland and provides an interdisciplinary examination of Arctic governance, sustainability, and the science-to-policy process.
Instruction is provided by a faculty of Arctic-based experts including my colleague from Flubright Arctic Initiative Programme Anna Karlsdottìr . The curriculum covers Arctic governance and security, community-led responses to environmental change, the socioeconomic impacts of climate change, and leadership strategies for translating research into policy.
This is a self-paced, introductory-level course with enrollment currently open. The next session begins today, June 13.
Arctic Book Available Online
I am happy to share that my book is finally available in book stores, online shops and you can also download a free PDF version! I look forward to reading your feedback.
Have a great weekend!
On a personal note I just returned from a week in Greenland with lots of insights and networking that I will share with you in a near future.
Yours,
Alexandra Middlton