Black Carbon, Non-Arctic States in the Arctic and Hydrogen Economy

Welcome to today's roundup of critical developments shaping the Arctic. This edition of Arctic Highlights spans key themes transforming the Arctic landscape: the ongoing debate over black carbon emissions from shipping, the growing influence of non-Arctic states, and the emergence of a northern hydrogen economy.

Read on for a detailed analysis of these developments and their implications for the Arctic's future!

Shipping in the Arctic: Black Carbon Problem 

According to Declan Bush’s publication "Arctic black carbon debate stuck in viscous detail,"  The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) faces a persistent challenge in its effort to regulate black carbon emissions from ships. After 14 years of discussion, the UN agency remains caught in technical debates over how to control these emissions, which accelerate Arctic ice melt.

When black carbon settles on ice, it reduces surface reflectivity, increasing heat absorption and accelerating melt rates. Environmental groups point to data showing Arctic temperatures rising four times faster than the global average, creating a feedback loop of warming and melting.

The IMO's regulatory efforts have met obstacles. A new ban on heavy fuel oil in Arctic waters, starting July 1st, contains exemptions that critics say weaken its impact. Shipping companies cite the costs of new regulations on an industry already working to reduce carbon emissions. The required changes to fuel or technology could make Arctic routes unprofitable just as melting ice makes them viable.

China and Russia are developing Arctic shipping corridors, viewing them as strategic assets. Norway and Canada plan emission controls by March 2027, risking a fragmented regulatory landscape. The divergent approaches highlight the challenge of managing environmental externalities in international waters.

Market mechanisms like emission trading could offer solutions, but require agreement on measurement and enforcement. The IMO must first resolve technical questions that have stalled progress. The delay carries costs: each year without regulation means more ice melt, potentially limiting the impact of future rules.

India and the Non-Arctic Asian Observer States

Non-Arctic Asian states are recalibrating their Arctic strategies, finds a new analysis by Jawahar Bhagwat in Palgrave's Maritime Politics series. While climate research officially tops their Arctic agendas, economic calculations increasingly drive policy decisions.

China, Japan, and South Korea view the Northern Sea Route as a potential trade artery that could cut shipping times to Europe. Yet the economics remain uncertain. High operational costs, limited navigation seasons, and volatile oil prices have dampened early enthusiasm. China's Arctic strategy, despite its ambitious scope, faces practical constraints that may delay its northern expansion.

The analysis suggests a mismatch between expectations and reality. While Asian powers strive for influence through observer status at the Arctic Council, actual economic returns remain distant. Infrastructure costs are high, environmental risks significant, and geopolitical tensions complicate development plans.

India's position is particularly noteworthy. The study advocates deeper cooperation with other Asian observers, especially in research and technology. But India's engagement lags behind its regional peers, particularly China, which has declared itself a "near-Arctic state" and invested heavily in polar capabilities.

The findings point to a broader trend: Asian states are preparing for Arctic opportunities while facing immediate obstacles. The region's economic potential may be vast, but realizing it requires patience, capital, and diplomatic finesse - resources that even Asia's largest economies must carefully weigh against other priorities.

Arctic Reindeer Face Double Threat from Climate Change and Development

A new study reveals that environmental assessments have significantly underestimated threats to reindeer populations in northern Europe, as they typically examine climate change and human development separately rather than looking at their combined effects.

Research published in Environmental Impact Assessment Review by Ilona Kater and Robert Baxter shows that

traditional methods could be missing up to 86% of the actual loss in winter grazing areas when they do not account for how reindeer behavior changes around human infrastructure. An additional 11% of impact is overlooked when assessments ignore how snow conditions affect access to food.

The study focused on semi-domesticated reindeer in northern Fennoscandia, where indigenous Sámi communities have historically relied on reindeer herding for their livelihoods. The researchers developed a new model that maps how reindeer avoid areas around roads, mines, hydropower stations, and towns. When these "zones of influence" overlap, they create synergistic effects – areas where multiple disturbances compound each other. These overlapping zones affect 22% of the study area, a finding that previous assessment methods would have missed.

Using advanced geographic information system software (QGIS), the team layered multiple factors onto maps to calculate how much winter forage reindeer lost. The model accounts for physical barriers, reindeer's tendency to avoid human structures, and changing snow conditions that can make food inaccessible.

While the model breaks new ground, the researchers acknowledge its limitations. It doesn't yet account for factors like habitat connectivity or year-to-year weather variations. However, they suggest it could be adapted for other regions and species, potentially reshaping how environmental impacts are assessed globally.

For Arctic communities, the stakes are high. As climate change accelerates and development pushes further north, understanding these combined impacts becomes crucial for protecting both wildlife and traditional ways of life. The research suggests that current environmental policies, based on simpler assessment methods, may need updating to reflect these more complex interactions between human development and climate change.

The findings highlight the importance of considering multiple environmental stressors together rather than in isolation, potentially changing how future environmental assessments are conducted across the Arctic region and beyond.

Hydrogen in the Nordic Arctic

This week, I attended a significant international event the Nordic Hydrogen Week 2025 that, brought together industry leaders, innovators, researchers, and policymakers to discuss the future of hydrogen energy and promote sustainable energy solutions.

The event spanned three days, starting with the Hydrogen Research Day 2025 on 11 February at the University of Oulu. Organized by H2FUTURE - Hydrogen Future as a Climate Change Solution programme focused on themes such as catalysis in the hydrogen value chain, societal and economic aspects of the hydrogen transition, and hydrogen in industrial processes. Attendees had the chance to listen to international hydrogen specialists and researchers share the latest innovations.

The second day featured the Hydrogen Impact Forum: Nordic Collaboration for EU Transition, which brought together stakeholders from the Nordic countries to discuss the social acceptance of local hydrogen projects. Round tables for Sweden and Norway were conducted in advance, with results presented at the event, while Finland's discussions took place on-site. Key challenges from these discussions were presented to a business panel, with policymakers from Norway, Sweden, and Finland commenting on the outcomes. 

The forum itself, held on the third day, focused on the hydrogen economy, technological advancements, and international collaboration. It showcased the top 10 hydrogen projects from Nordic countries and featured insights from international experts on the evolving global hydrogen markets. Keynotes from industry leaders, such as Sebastian König from Air Liquide Engineering & Construction and Mats Ahlberg from Uniper Hydrogen, provided valuable insights on Europe's performance in the hydrogen technology race and opportunities for new energy partnerships through green fuels.

The forum also featured project showcases, including projects in the Port of Oulu, and the Nordic Hydrogen Route, as well as a Hydrogen Fleet Expo where attendees could explore current hydrogen-related innovations and meet exhibitors in the hydrogen sector.

Cecilia Wallmark from Luleå University of Technology presented an overview of hydrogen projects in Sweden at the Northern Power Business Forum. Considering her role as Director of the Centre for Hydrogen Energy Systems Sweden CH2ESS at Luleå University of Technology her presentation showcased key hydrogen initiatives, research findings, and collaborative efforts within the Swedish hydrogen landscape.

The significance of the Northern Power Business Forum for the Nordics and Oulu cannot be overstated. It aimed to build a hydrogen ecosystem, promote Oulu's green transition, and strengthen Oulu’s role as the hydrogen capital of the Bothnian Arc. 

The signing of a cooperation agreement between Verso Energy, the City of Oulu, and the Port of Oulu at the Northern Power Business Forum represents a remarkable and significant step. Antoine Huard , CEO of Verso Energy, attended the event, and shared in his presentation the details of the project, Verso Energy, a French company, has partnered with the City of Oulu in Finland to construct the nation's largest hydrogen refining plant. This €1.4 billion project, strategically located in Oulu's port area, aims to produce 80,000 tonnes of sustainable aviation fuel (e-SAF) annually. The plant will utilize renewable hydrogen and biogenic carbon dioxide from nearby paper and pulp mills, ensuring emission-free fuel production. Expected to create 250 jobs, this initiative underscores Oulu's developing status as a Nordic hydrogen hub.

The scale and importance of this event highlight the growing emphasis on hydrogen energy in the Nordic region and its potential to drive sustainable energy solutions for the future..

Yours,

Alexandra Middleton