Citi: Ten Things You Need to Know About Ratings in APAC before April starts | 花旗：亚太区评级机构月度十大新鲜事·2022年4月刊

Country / Territory Theme

国家/地区主题

1. All three agencies note the limited direct economic exposure of APAC credits to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but risk from secondary impacts remains. Agencies mention the low trade exposure between APAC and Russia/Ukraine, but higher commodities prices could lead to weaker growth, higher inflation and financial market uncertainty. For example, net importers of oil and other commodities, such as India and Thailand, may suffer from dampened economic growth and more restrictive bank borrowings. S&P indicates that while APAC banks’ direct exposure to Russia-Ukraine conflict is very limited, the knock-on effect could include volatility in assets and currencies, as a result of capital outflow to haven jurisdiction. Both S&P and Fitch highlight that the conflict has intensified challenges for some EM sovereigns, especially for those already confront financing challenges such as Sri Lanka, or net commodity importing countries such as India. Moody’s expects credit quality of fuel-intensive sectors to be impacted the most, while sectors such as semiconductors, electronics and autos are also negatively impacted by constrained access to key raw materials, while oil and gas exploration and production companies and some agricultural producers will benefit. 

1. 三大评级机构皆认为俄乌冲突对亚太地区造成的直接经济风险有限，但间接影响的风险犹存。评级机构认为，尽管亚太地区与俄乌之间的直接贸易不多，但大宗商品价格上涨可能导致亚太经济增长放缓、通胀上升和增加金融市场的不确定性。举例来说，对于印度和泰国等石油和大宗物品净进口国来说，原料价格上涨将导致经济增长放缓和银行融资受限。标普表示，尽管俄乌冲突对亚太地区银行的直接风险非常有限，但资本外逃至避险市场的连锁反应可能会导致资产和货币波动。标普和惠誉强调，俄乌冲突让一些已经面临挑战的新兴市场雪上加霜，比如那些已面临融资困境的国家（如斯里兰卡）或大宗商品净进口国（如印度）。穆迪预计燃料密集型产业的信用质量受到的影响最大，而半导体、电子和汽车等行业也会受到关键原材料供应受限的负面影响，但油气上游的勘探和生产企业以及一些农业生产商将受益。

2. S&P foresees the rise of SE Asia credits amid Chinese turmoil around liquidity issues and weak housing markets. South and Southeast Asia rated corporates are to see strong liquidity, healthy operations, low refinancing needs, and limited capital outlays, which will help them to deleverage. Indian rated issuers are projected to cut their debt levels by 5%-7% on average in 2022 and 2023, and 40% of them will likely have at least 20% less debt at the end of 2022 vs 2020. In Indonesia, performance will diverge across sectors – commodities have largely rebounded to pre-COVID levels but domestic industries face a slower recovery amid the omicron wave and still volatile consumer sentiment. Ratings are still below pre-pandemic levels, but those with negative outlooks dropped to a third from nearly 60% of the total six months ago. The positive credit sentiment towards SSEA issuers is also visible with the revival of US$ bond issuances after the breakout of the Ukraine crisis – sovereign issuances such as the US$2.25Bn from Republic of the Philippines (Baa2/BBB+/BBB) and US$1.75Bn from Republic of Indonesia (Baa2/BBB/BBB); and corporate issuances such as the US$1.3Bn from PTT Global Chemical (Baa2/BBB/--) and US$1.0bn from MISC Bhd (Baa2/BBB+/--) priced at competitive levels.

2. 标普预计东南亚企业信用状况转好，市场发行活跃，与受到房地产疲软和流动性问题影响的中国市场形成鲜明对比。南亚和东南亚的受评企业预计将具有强劲的流动性、健康的运营、较低再融资需求和有限的资本支出，这将有助于它们去杠杆化。在印度，受评企业绝对债务水平预计将在2022年和2023年平均下降5%-7%，而其中40%的受评企业在2022年末的债务预计将比2020年同期下降至少20%。在印尼，各行业的表现将出现分化—大宗商品已基本反弹至疫情前的水平，但受奧密克戎这波疫情以及消费者情绪波动的影响，其国内行业复苏放缓。尽管受评企业的总体评级水平仍低于疫情前的水平，但获评负面展望的企业已从六个月前的近60%的占比下降至三分之一。即便是乌克兰危机爆发后，南亚与东南亚美元债券发行市场仍持续复苏：菲律宾 (Baa2/BBB+/BBB) 22.5 亿美元和印度尼西亚17.5亿美元（Baa2/BBB/BBB）的主权债券发行，以及 PTT Global Chemical (Baa2/BBB/--) 10亿美元的企业债券发行顺利，价格诱人，金主爸爸们对南亚和东南亚发行人的积极情绪可见一斑。

Industry Theme

行业主题

3. Moody’s highlights the second order effects to other industries from the Chinese property turmoil. Despite the easing policies, Moody’s still expects a decline in 2022 property sales, highlighting the spillover effect that slowing land sales will put pressure on local governments and their financing vehicles. Trust companies also face redemption risk due to higher exposure to property sectors than other financial institutions, though support from parent and related policy will partly offset the risk. Both Moody’s and Fitch expect the increasing M&A activities for distressed POE developers by SOEs (mostly developers) will have limited impact on buyers’ leverage. This is because SOEs normally have strong balance sheets and ready access to funding, and tend to select projects with promising returns. Easing measures announced in Chinese party meetings could support property sales, while recovery in funding will take longer amid market concerns of delay in releasing audited financials for some major developers. Moody’s views the delay in results release as credit negative because it could indicate weak corporate governance, financial management and planning, as well as transparency and information disclosure.

3. 穆迪发表报告评估中国地产业持续低迷对其他行业的潜在影响。尽管政府出台了相关宽松政策，但穆迪仍预计2022年房地产销售将下降，并指出因此导致的土地销售放缓将对地方政府及其融资平台带来更大压力。因房地产市场疲软导致的溢出效应还将体现在信托业，其他金融机构相比，信托公司在房地产领域敞口更大。而相关信托产品主要面临着到期赎回的压力，所幸来自母公司和相关政策的支持将一定程度上缓解这种压力。穆迪和惠誉预计，国企开发商针对陷入困境的民营企业开发商日益增长的并购活动对其杠杆的影响有限。原因是国有企业通常拥有强大财务实力和畅通的融资渠道，并且国企在收购过程中倾向于选择回报可观的项目。两会宣布的宽松措施可能会支持房地产销售，而由于市场对几家主要开发商延迟发布财务报告所引发的市场担忧，融资复苏将需要更长的时间。穆迪认为，延迟发布业绩引发市场对房企在公司治理、财务管理和规划以及透明度和信息披露方面的隐忧，将带来负面信用影响。

4. S&P published a research on the credit standing of Jiangsu province and its state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Overall repayment risk for SOEs in Jiangsu is manageable but varies substantially among cities, and this hinges on whether the province can successfully transition to a lower reliance on debt-fueled growth. As one of the largest in the country, Jiangsu’s SOE segment, including local government financing vehicles (LGFVs), is a microcosm of China’s credit-driven development in past decades, and has higher refinancing needs. S&P also believes those SOEs in smaller cities may be tasked by government to transform into more market-oriented and financially sustainable platforms. In corresponding public finance team at Fitch, Samuel Kwok has been appointed as APAC Head, filling a position vacant since October 2021.

4. 标普发布江苏省及省内国企信用研究报告，称江苏国有企业的总体还款风险是可控的，但个体差异大。省级信用的未来取决于政府摆脱信贷拉动增长模式的能力。作为全国拥有国企和地方政府融资平台规模最大的省份之一，江苏国企的发展历程是中国过去几十年信贷驱动发展的缩影，而时至今日这些企业的再融资需求颇为庞大。标普还认为，政府可能会要求小城市的国有企业转型为更加市场化、在财务上能自食其力的平台。另外，惠誉的地方政府及相关企业分析团队近日宣布新任亚太主管郭铭琛，填补了此职位自2021年10月以来的空缺。

5. Fintechs in India face many hurdles in their next phase of expansion even though they have led the rapid growth of the digital payment ecosystem, says Moody’s. As UPI transactions such as digital payment transfers are not remunerative, the companies have been trying to use their platform to cross sell other financial services. But primary network for digital transactions in India has an open architecture that levels the playing field for all companies. Because of this, fintechs' dominance in digital payments may not result in a significant data advantage over banks. In addition, large banks have significantly improved their own digital products in other areas, with customers adopting them widely. This will help these banks fend off competition from fintechs outside the payment segment. Fintechs will continue to try to expand into other financial services, particularly personal loans and loans to small merchants. However, at the same time, the overall market may also expand as technology creates more opportunities, allowing banks to counter pressure on margins with business growth.

5. 穆迪称，尽管印度的金融科技公司引领了数字支付生态系统的快速增长，但他们在下一阶段的扩张中仍面临诸多阻碍。由于UPI（统一支付接口）交易的利润率不高，各公司一直在努力利用其平台来交叉出售其他金融服务。而印度数字交易主网络的开放架构则为所有公司提供了公平竞争的环境。鉴于此，金融科技公司在数字支付中的主导地位并不会为他们在与银行的竞争中带来显著数据优势。此外，大型银行已大幅改进了其在其他领域的数字化产品，并被银行客户广泛采用。这将助力银行在除支付以外的其它领域抵御来自金融科技公司的竞争。金融科技公司将继续尝试扩展其他金融服务，特别是个人贷款和微小企业贷款。但与此同时，随着科技革新带来越来越多的机会，整个金融市场将持续扩张，这将帮助银行抵御利润率承压带来的营运风险。

Key Rating Actions

主要的评级行动

6. Syngenta Group has published Baa1/BBB+/A initial ratings by Moody’s, S&P and Fitch with stable outlook. Citi served as sole rating advisor for this debut rating. Syngenta Group’s ratings are driven by large operating scale with high product and geographic diversification, leading market positions, strong R&D capabilities and product pipeline to drive long-term growth, as well as strong support from its ultimate parent, Sinochem Holdings, which led to a 4-notch uplift by Moody’s and 3-notch uplift by S&P; while Fitch applied parent-subsidiary methodology and linked company’s credit with the parent. Citi also served as Lenovo’s advisor for Moody’s upgrade to Baa2/stable from Baa3/Positive. The rating action reflects Lenovo's improved leverage, driven by debt reduction and a higher EBITDA. Moody’s also believes Lenovo will sustain improved credit profile, maintain excellent liquidity and improved debt leverage, supported by its leading market position, as well as disciplined financial management.

6. 先正达集团已宣布穆迪、标普、惠誉的首次评级结果，分别为Baa1/BBB+/A，展望稳定，花旗在本案中担任3大评级机构的独家评级顾问。先正达集团的评级受以下因素驱动：经营规模大，产品和地域多元化程度高，市场地位领先，研发能力和产品实力驱动长期增长。中化控股的大力支持也助力实现了在独立信用基础上的穆迪4级、标普3级的评级提升，而惠誉则采用母子公司评级法，将该公司的信用与母公司相关联。花旗还担任联想的顾问，促成穆迪将联想的评级从“Baa3/正面”升级至“Baa2/稳定”。此次评级行动反映了联想在债务削减和 EBITDA提高的推动下杠杆状况的改善。穆迪还认为，联想领先的市场地位和严谨的财务管理将支持其保持良好的信用状况、出色的流动性，以及较好的债务杠杆状况。

7. Meituan (Baa3 / BBB- Negative) published FY2021 results and the losses were more moderate than S&P and Fitch’s forecasts, reducing some downward rating pressure. Meanwhile, Haidilao was downgraded to BBB- / Stable by both agencies due to lower than expected profitability. Meituan’s strong performance of food-delivery and in-store businesses offset some losses at its new initiatives. Fitch could take negative rating action if Meituan’s EBITDA is not on track to recover to neutral for 2022. However, S&P expects Meituan’s EBITDA to remain in deficit for 2022 due to continuous expansion into new businesses, and turn positive in 2023. Fitch believes the COVID-19 resurgence impact for Meituan is short-term, but both agencies show concern about the uncertainty on profitability of its core food delivery arising from China’s implementation of new social insurance for delivery-service drivers. Haidilao’s overexpansion reduced restaurant productivity in 2021 and is expected to be more exposed to COVID-19 outbreak due to nature of hotpot-style restaurant. Despite the gradual recovery in 2022, agencies believe Haidilao’s margin will remain below historical levels, resulting in higher than expected leverage.

7. 美团（Baa3/BBB- 负面展望）公布了2021财年业绩，亏损低于标普和惠誉的预测，减少了部分评级下行风险。外卖和店内业务的强劲表现抵消了其新业务的一些损失。相比而言，海底捞则由于盈利不及预期，被标普和惠誉调降评级至”BBB/稳定”。如果美团的EBITDA在2022年尚未逐渐步入盈亏平衡的正轨，惠誉可能会采取负面评级行动。而标普预计，由于美团不断拓展新业务，其EBITDA在2022年仍将保持赤字，并在2023年由负转正。惠誉认为，疫情反弹的影响是短期的，但两家机构鉴于监管面对外卖小哥的社保要求趋严，对美团核心外卖业务盈利能力的不确定性表示担忧。海底捞的过度扩张降低了 2021 年的餐厅盈利，而火锅店的营业性质被认为更容易受到新冠疫情的冲击。尽管评级机构预计其业务将在2022年逐步复苏，但其利润率仍将低于历史水平，导致杠杆率高于预期。

8. S&P has lowered the ratings of four Thai banks reflecting the increased systemic risks for banks operating in Thailand. Siam Commercial Bank (‘SCB’) and Kasikornbank (‘KBank’) were downgraded to 'BBB' from 'BBB+', while Krung Thai Bank (‘KTB’) and TMBThanachart Bank (‘TTB’) were downgraded to 'BBB-' from 'BBB'. The ratings of Bangkok Bank and Bank of Ayudhya (‘BAY’) was affirmed at 'BBB+'. The outlooks on all the banks are stable. S&P has revised down the stand-alone credit profiles of all the six banks by one notch. S&P views the systemic risk for Thai banks has risen and this has resulted in a downward change of S&P’s Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (‘BICRA’) on Thailand. High leverage among borrowers is likely to persist driven by regulatory relaxation such as loosening of LTV ratio for mortgages, or an absence of any concrete action to rein in high household debt. The economic recovery has been fragile and uneven, especially in tourism exacerbated by the recent Ukraine crisis. S&P expects the banking sector's nonperforming loans to rise gradually over the next 24 months to 5% -- the highest since the global financial crisis. . From Moody’s, all the six banks are at Baa1 with stable outlook. From Fitch, Bangkok Bank, SCB, KBank and TTB are at BBB while KTB and BAY are at BBB+; all with stable outlook.

8. 标普下调了四家泰国银行的评级，反映了在泰银行系统性风险的增加。泰国汇商银行和开泰银行的评级从“BBB+”被下调至“BBB”，而泰京银行和泰国军人银行的评级则从“BBB”被下调至“BBB-”。盘谷银行和大城银行的评级被确认为“BBB+”。所有这些银行的评级展望均稳定。标普已将所有六家银行的独立信用状况下调了1个子级，主要缘于泰国银行系统性金融风险的上升，导致标普对泰国银行业国别风险评估调降了一级。考虑到按揭贷款融资比例高，暂无明确措施抑制高企的居民部门债务水平，居民的杠杆水平将持续高企。泰国的经济复苏脚步尚不扎实，各行业重振水平个体差异大，特别是近期爆发的俄乌冲突对旅游业的影响明显。标普预计，银行业的不良贷款率将在未来24个月内逐渐上升至5%——这是自全球金融危机以来的最高水平。穆迪授予前文所提的六家银行的评级均为Baa1，前景稳定。惠誉授予盘谷银行、汇商银行、开泰银行和军人银行的评级皆为“BBB”，而泰京银行和大城银行评级水平为“BBB+”，评级展望皆为稳定。

ESG Theme

ESG 主题

9. Moody’s published its debut APAC ESG research highlighting carbon transition and natural capital risks as the driving ESG force in 2022 for credit implications. Authored by John Wang, who joined Moody’s in late 2021 to cover ESG in APAC(before joining Moody’s, he ran a China-based ESG start-up), the article notes that while global pushes like GFANZ will accelerate international investors’ portfolio decarbonization, domestic policy variances will lead to uneven credit implications for APAC economies. As an example, while coal and oil & gas companies in China are heavily exposed to transition risk, the impact to ratings is limited. In particular while Moody’s highlights China’s five year plan to point to more renewables, importance of coal remains. In addition, natural capital risk is getting more spotlight as investors look forward to TNFD’s upcoming disclosure framework. Relevant sectors in Southeast Asia countries with severe deforestation risk, such as Indonesia, Laos and Malaysia, will face greater investor scrutiny.

9. 穆迪发布了其首份亚太区ESG研究报告，强调碳转型和自然资本风险将成为2022年信用评级影响的主要驱动性因素。报告由汪洋撰写，他于2021年底加入穆迪负责亚太区ESG研究，加入穆迪前，他曾在国内担任某ESG初创公司的负责人。报告指出，尽管GFANZ（格拉斯哥净零金融联盟）等全球性组织的推动将加速国际投资者的投资组合减碳，但各国相关政策的不同将对亚太地区经济体造成不均衡的信用影响。比如，虽然中国的煤炭和油气公司面临严峻的转型风险，但对评级的影响有限。特别是，尽管穆迪强调中国的五年计划将增加可再生能源占比，但煤炭的重要性犹在。此外，随着投资者期待的TNFD（自然相关财务信息披露工作组）披露框架的面世，自然资本风险正备受瞩目。在东南亚森林砍伐风险严重的国家，如印度尼西亚、老挝和马来西亚，投资者对相关行业的投资将更为审慎。

10. Adani Transmission, an Indian utility network, has published its S&P ESG Evaluation. This marks the first public S&P ESG rating in APAC emerging markets. Adani’s score of 63 reflects company’s effective management of environmental risks, adequate governance structure, and continued efforts to maintain its capacity to navigate potential disruptions especially around environment and regulations. The company participates actively to the energy transition in India, with increasing renewable energy procurement. However, it may take time for the company to retire its coal plant given the imperatives of Mumbai’s energy security, meaning its direct carbon emissions will remain high. The company has well established waste management practices, with a zero waste to landfill commitment, good recycling rates, and sound awareness of climate and biodiversity risks. In the meantime, while S&P rates Adani’s social and governance profile as good, they note the company’s awareness on social risks remains developing. The controlling stake of Adani family also drags down the governance pillar score. In comparison, MSCI and Sustainalytics rates the company at BBB and 32.5 (high risk) respectively reflect the company’s high exposure to ESG risks especially climate risks given its industry nature and strong measures put in to deal with such risks. They also acknowledge company’s risks on social and governance.

10. 印度输电企业Adani Transmission（阿达尼）公开其标普ESG评估结果，标志着首个新兴市场标普ESG评级的公开亮相。阿达尼的ESG 评估为 63分，反映了公司对环境风险的有效管理、完善的治理结构以及在变幻的监管环境和日益凸显的环境风险中能持续良好经营的实力。该公司积极参与印度的能源转型，逐渐增加对可再生能源的采购。然而，鉴于孟买能源安全的紧迫性，该公司可能需要一段时间才能淘汰燃煤电厂，这意味着其直接碳排放量仍将居高不下。阿达尼承诺废弃物零填埋，并拥有完善的废物管理实践、良好的回收率以及对气候和生物多样性风险的良好意识。与此同时，尽管标普对阿达尼的社会与管治风险评估为“良好”，标普认为其社会风险的管理仍有待完善，阿达尼家族的控股地位亦是其企业治理打分的拖累。相比而言，其余ESG评级机构MSCI和 Sustainalytics 分别给出的BBB 评级和 32.5(高风险)反映出公司受行业性质影响的高ESG风险敞口，特别是气候风险，但对应的风险管理水平较强。与此同时，两家评级机构认为阿达尼的社会和管治方面具有一定程度的风险。

---

Source: Moody’s, S&P and Fitch, Sustainalytics, MSCI

FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. NOT FOR ONWARD DISTRIBUTION. The content of the material is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or recommendation to purchase or sell any products, services, offer financing or enter into any transactions. The materials purport to provide only an overview of trends, perspectives, and initiatives relating to digital and other emerging technologies, some of which may not be available or relevant in all jurisdictions. Local rules, laws and regulations may apply. The information contained herein is also subject to change at any time without notice, and shall not be relied on in making any investment decisions. Prior to making any investment decision, you should determine, without reliance on us our affiliates, the economic risks and merits (and independently determine that you are able to assume these risks), as well as the legal, tax and accounting characterizations and consequences of any such transaction.

Information contained in this document may not be reproduced or disseminated, whether in part or in whole, without the prior written consent of Citi. This document is not intended for distribution to, or use by any person in, a jurisdiction where such distribution is prohibited by law or regulations.

© 2022 Citigroup Global Markets Asia Limited. All rights reserved. Citi and Arc Design and CitiDirect are trademarks and service marks of Citigroup Inc. or its affiliates, used and registered throughout the world.