Citi: Ten Things You Need to Know About Ratings in APAC before June Starts | 花旗：亚太区评级月度十大新鲜事·2022年6月刊

Country / Territory Theme

国家/地区主题

1. Fitch published a special report on the elevated risk under stagflation scenario for nearly half of APAC corporates rated at ‘BBB-‘ and ‘BBB’. 34 of the 81 ‘BBB-’ and ‘BBB’ corporates in APAC are under pressure from input-cost inflation, dampened demand and higher interest rates, which would hurt cash generation and potentially raise credit risks. 9 of 34 are from China, mainly operating in homebuilding sector; while 13 Indian names are on the list due to Fitch’s Negative outlook on Indian sovereign. Industry wise, gaming, lodging and leisure bear the brunt along with homebuilding, considering its lower rating headroom and higher exposure to stagflation. 

1. 惠誉发表专题报告梳理亚太区投资级低端企业的降级风险，发现近一半评级为“BBB-”和“BBB”的企业在滞胀情景假设下信用风险高。亚太区81家被授予“BBB-”和“BBB”评级的企业中有34家面临成本上升、需求疲软和利率上行的压力，并将因此面临现金流恶化和偿还能力降低的风险。这34家企业中有9家来自中国，主要从事房地产开发；此外，鉴于惠誉将印度主权评级展望调降至负面，13家印度企业也被列入报告清单。从行业分布角度分析，除房地产行业以外，博彩、住宿和休闲行业亦受到较大的冲击，主要是由于其评级缓冲空间较低而滞胀风险较高。

2. Vietnam’s Sovereign rating has been upgraded by S&P to BB+ with Stable outlook due to improvements in the government's administrative processes to ensure timely repayments of guaranteed debt over the past two years. The ratings upgrade is also driven by the steady recovery of the economy as domestic and cross-border mobility restrictions are progressively lifted following the improvement in vaccination rates and shift from the country's zero-COVID policy. S&P rating is now at the highest level among the three rating agencies, though the ratings outlook from other two are Positive. The Sovereign rating is at Ba3/Positive from Moody’s and at BB/Positive from Fitch. Moody’s has the positive outlook since March 2021 driven by signs of improvements in fiscal strength and potential improvements in economic strength that may strengthen Vietnam’s credit profile over time. Fitch changed the Sovereign rating outlook to ‘Positive’ in April 2021 reflecting the country’s resilient economy despite the Covid-19 pandemic, continued strong export performance and stable public finances.

2. 标普将越南的主权评级调升至BB+，展望稳定，这得益于在过去两年中政府为确保及时偿还担保债务就行政流程作出的改进。随着疫苗接种率提高和防疫清零政策退场，其国内和跨境人员流动限制逐步解除，经济得以稳步复苏，亦是促成本次评级上调的原因。三大评级机构中，标普的评级为三者中最高，但其他两家机构对越南的评级展望为正面（穆迪Ba3/正面、惠誉BB/正面）。鉴于有迹象表明越南财政实力改观和潜在经济实力增强，其信用状况亦将随之有所提升，因此穆迪自2021年3月起即授予越南正面评级展望。惠誉于2021年4月将越南主权评级展望调整为“正面”，反映该国在疫情大背景下依然能够维持经济韧性，并持续保持强劲的出口表现和稳定的公共财政。

3. China's COVID policy will further weigh on economy and credit. China's continuing lockdowns of cities and towns, notably Shanghai, have hit demand and business operations, and led all three rating agencies to reduce 2022 GDP growth forecast for China. The uncertainty from extended lockdown has also partly contributed to downgrade of Shanghai Electric to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A-’ by S&P. S&P expects mobility-dependent sectors such as transport, retail and leisure to be the most affected, while suppressed sales and delays to housing construction and delivery have put the beleaguered property sector under more strain. Moody’s maintains a negative outlook on the China property sector, and expects property downturn, COVID-related disruptions and heightened geopolitical tensions will slow China's growth. Both S&P and Fitch expect Chinese banks’ asset-quality pressures to increase as public health measures to curb the spread of COVID cases continue to disrupt economic activity. China's slower economic growth could also impede the insurance sector's topline growth and ongoing progress in market reforms. Despite China calling for increased infrastructure investment to prop up its slowing economy, S&P believes new borrowing is unlikely to be substantially relaxed for China LGFVs due to sustained probes by central government. Furthermore, the spillover effect from weakening consumption in China includes a slower recovery for emerging market, especially Thailand, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

3. 中国的防疫政策将进一步拖累经济和企业信用资质。国内以上海为集中代表的清零防疫政策已严重打击需求和商业运营，使三大评级机构纷纷下调对中国2022年GDP增长预期。长期封锁带来的不确定性也一定程度上导致标普将上海电气的评级从“A-”调降为“BBB+”。据标普预计，交通、零售和休闲等依赖流量的行业将受到最大影响，而销售受阻以及住房建设和交付延迟使本就窘迫的房地产行业更加泥潭深陷。穆迪维持对中国房地产行业的“负面”展望，并认为地产的下行周期、新冠所导致的经济活动扰乱和地缘政治的紧张局势都将导致中国经济增长放缓。标普和惠誉均预计，随着遏制新冠疫情传播的公共卫生措施继续扰乱正常经济活动，中国银行业将面临更大的资产质量下降的压力。中国经济增长放缓也可能阻碍保险业收入增长及其市场化改革的进展。尽管中国呼吁增加基础设施投资以提振经济，但标普认为，鉴于中央政府对城投的持续性严监管取态，城投获取新贷款融资的能力不会明显提升。此外，中国的消费疲软所带来的溢出效应，将导致新兴市场（尤其是泰国、马来西亚和菲律宾）经济复苏放缓。

Industry Theme

行业主题

4. Moody’s welcomes CBIRC’s recent directive on TLAC securities as credit positive. The directive, announced in late April, stipulates that PBOC, together with CBIRC, will manage TLAC issuance quota and that for senior unsecured debt under the same existing regulation. As the first agency to publicly comment on the directive, Moody’s highlights that the policy reflects regulation’s stance that TLAC securities be treated the same as senior non-preferred debt. The rating agency also notes its view that TLAC securities are ranked between senior unsecured debt and Tier 2 capital bonds in terms of priority of claim. The regulation also prohibits Chinese Big 4 banks and their related parties such as wealth-management subsidiaries from investing in noncapital TLAC securities that they themselves issued, which will ameliorate somewhat the concern of banking system interconnectedness and circular use of funds.

4. 银保监会近期出台关于中国总损失吸收能力（TLAC）非资本债通知，获穆迪点赞并认为其具有正面信用影响。该通知于4月下旬公布，规定中国人民银行将连同银保监会对TLAC及高级无担保债务的发行配额归并管理。作为第一家公开评述该政策的评级机构，穆迪指出该政策反映了监管将TLAC证券作为高级非优先债务的取态；另，穆迪认为TLAC证券在偿付顺序方面介于高级无担保债务和二级资本债券之间。该监管政策还明文禁止中国四大国有银行及其关联方（如旗下理财子公司）投资由自己发行的TLAC非资本证券，这将在一定程度上缓解市场对银行系统风险互联和资金内循环的担忧。

5. S&P believes healthy property managers will take advantage of the property downcycle to buy the property management subsidiaries of distressed developers. Although wider real estate market continues to wobble, property managers are far less capital intensive than developers, and are less exposed to liquidity tightening in the Chinese real estate sector. Given that China’s domestic equity markets have cooled, S&P expects property management companies will start to explore debt financing to fund their growth. S&P also notes the stable cash flow generation from property managers, in contrast to highly cyclical developers. The leading property management company Country Garden Services just published its Baa3 first-time Moody’s rating, in addition to its pre-existing ‘BBB-’ rating from Fitch. Despite the fact that the industry is fast growing and generates stable cash flow, S&P highlights the potential governance risk associated with mergers and acquisitions of related parties.

5. 标普认为，优质物管企业将利用房地产下行周期收购深陷泥淖开发商物管业务。尽管房地产宏观市场持续震荡，但由于物管公司的资本密集度远低于开发商，因而受中国房地产行业流动性收紧的影响也较小。鉴于中国国内股市降温，标普预计物业公司将利用债务融资助力企业增长。标普认为物管行业现金流稳定，与高波动的地产开发商形成鲜明对比。近期，物管龙头碧桂园服务在之前已有的惠誉BBB-评级基础上，又公布了其穆迪Baa3的首次评级。尽管物管行业增长迅速并产生稳定的现金流，标普仍特别指出关联方并购存在相关潜在治理风险。

Key Rating Actions

主要评级行动

6. Guosen Securities, headquartered in Shenzhen, was assigned first-time ratings of BBB/BBB+ with ‘stable’ outlooks by S&P and Fitch, driven by its good market position with proven ability in serving retail customers, strong capitalization, and commensurate risk management systems. Agencies also took government support into account given Guosen is the largest local state-owned broker in the Greater Bay Area, with 43.87% ownership by Shenzhen SASAC. S&P believes company has a very strong link with the Shenzhen government, and Fitch expects extraordinary external support, all proven by its high market share in the capital market activities of fellow Shenzhen SOEs, the policy role played in contributing to SOE reforms in the Greater Bay and Qianhai areas, as well as supporting the authorities' market stabilization actions in 2015 and 2018.

6. 标普和惠誉首予国信证券（总部位于深圳）BBB/BBB+评级，展望稳定，这得益于其良好的市场地位、久经考验的零售客户服务能力、强大的资本化实力和与之匹配的的风险管理系统。此外，因为国信是大湾区最大的地方国资券商，深圳国资委持有其43.87%的股份，各评级机构也将政府支持纳入评级考量因素。标普认为该公司与深圳市政府关联紧密，惠誉预计其将受到政府特殊支持—这一切都体现在其在深圳国有企业资本市场活动中占据的高市场份额，在促进大湾区和前海的国有企业改革方面发挥的政策作用，以及支持政府在2015年和2018年的稳市场行动。

7. Fitch recently upgraded three Chinese companies following the publication of new Parent and Subsidiary Linkage Rating Criteria. Shandong Hi-speed Financial was upgraded to ‘A-’ from ‘BBB+’, one notch down from parent rating. Its operational linkage improved to ‘Medium’ from ‘Weak’ as a result of new methodology setting lower bars on treasury function integration, i.e. ‘Centralized Treasury’ at parent level. This change may benefit subsidiaries with separate funding functions at subsidiary level. Shenzhen International (SZIH) was upgraded to ‘BBB+’ from ‘BBB’, two notches up from standalone credit profile. Previously SZIH’s rating uplift was limited to one notch due to its commercial entity nature, and the new methodology removing such constraints for subsidiaries with stronger parents. As an important subsidiary of SZIH, Shenzhen Expressway (SZE) was also upgraded to ‘BBB+’ from ‘BBB’. This is supported by a strong SZE standalone profile and the higher parent rating at SZIH level. The new methodology provides some more flexibility on notch-up for subsidiaries with standalone credit profile just marginally below group credit profile.

7. 惠誉根据新的《母子公司评级关联性标准》，上调了三家中国公司的评级。山东高速金融的评级从“BBB+”上调至“A-”，比母公司评级低一个子级。新标准对子公司与母公司资金运营融合度的要求降低，故使得运营关联性从“弱”上调为“中等”。这一方法论改变对拥有独立融资渠道的子公司构成一定利好。深圳国际的评级从“BBB”上调为“BBB+”，较其独立信用评级高两个子级。此前，因为其商业化业务实质，深圳国际调级仅限于高于其独立信用评级一个子级，而新标准取消了这一限制。深圳高速公路（深圳国际控股的重要子公司）的评级也从“BBB”上调为“BBB+”，主要受惠于深圳高速个体信用资质强及母公司深圳国际信用评级提升。新方法论为子公司信用资质仅低于母公司一级的企业提供了更大的获得母公司支持提升的可能。

8. There were some noteworthy rating actions in India. Both Fitch and S&P have taken positive rating actions on Tata Steel – Fitch upgraded by one notch to BB+ with Positive outlook, while S&P ratings outlook has been revised to Positive with ratings affirmation at BBB-. The actions are driven by Company’s significant debt repayment and strong EBITDA generation led by continued strength in steel prices. S&P’s positive outlook reflects the potential for an upgrade of Tata Steel over the next 12-24 months if the company continues to reduce leverage and improves its resilience to steel price cycles, while Fitch’s Positive outlook reflects the expectation of low leverage due to prudent capex management and acquisitions. Moody’s rating is at Ba1 with Stable outlook. All three agencies apply one-notch uplift to Tata Steel’s standalone credit profile to arrive at the final rating due to potential support from the Tata Group.

Bharti Airtel got a ratings upgrade from Moody’s to be at Baa3 with Stable outlook driven by continued strengthening of its operations and improvement of financial profile, including lower leverage and increasing profitability through a 25% y-o-y increase in its consolidated adjusted EBITDA for FY22 (March ending). The S&P and Fitch ratings are at BBB- with Stable and Negative outlook respectively.

UPL Corp. Ltd. has been downgraded by S&P to BB+ from BBB- driven by high leverage level due to increased dependency on receivables securitization, which is viewed as debt like by S&P, and extended trade payables to fund working capital. The outlook is Stable reflecting S&P’s expectation of improving leverage level over the next two years due to resilient cash flows and disciplined spending. UPL’s off-balance-sheet receivables sharply increased by c.60% year-on-year, while trade payable days have deteriorated close to 270 days from 200 days. Moody’s and Fitch have Baa3 and BBB- rating respectively with Stable outlook.

8. 印度企业评级出现多个重大调整：惠誉和标普都对塔塔钢铁公司（Tata Steel）采取了正面的评级行动—惠誉将其评级调升为BB+，展望正面，而标普确认其评级为BBB-，修正展望为正面。这是因为钢铁价格持续走强，公司偿还了重大债务并大幅提升了EBITDA。标普授予其正面展望，意味着如果塔塔钢铁公司继续降低杠杆率并提高其跨周期运营能力，其评级可能在未来12-24个月内得以调升。惠誉鉴于公司审慎的资本支出管理和收购活动，预计公司杠杆水平将持续维持低位，授予正面展望。穆迪授予其Ba1评级，展望稳定。得益于塔塔集团的潜在支持，三大评级机构都将塔塔钢铁公司的独立信用状况上调一个子级，从而得出最终评级。

穆迪将巴帝电信公司（Bharti Airtel）的评级调升至Baa3，展望稳定。这得益于其运营能力的持续加强和财务状况的改善，包括2022财年（截至3月末）合并调整后EBITDA同比增长25%带来的低杠杆率和高盈利能力。标普和惠誉授予其BBB-评级，评级展望分别为稳定和负面。

标普将UPL Corp. Ltd.的评级从BBB-调降为BB+，这是由于其越来越依赖应收账款证券化（标普视其等同于债务）而使杠杆率抬升，以及依赖应付账款延期以降低所需营运资本。展望稳定则反映了标普对公司未来两年杠杆水平改善的预期，原因在于其现金流韧性和谨慎的财务支出。UPL资产负债表的表外应收账款同比增长约60%，而应付账款周转天数从200天增至近270天。穆迪和惠誉分别授予其Baa3和BBB-评级，展望稳定。

ESG Theme

ESG主题

9. S&P published its first series of industry-based ESG materiality maps, which shed light from both stakeholder perspective and credit perspective. 7 energy-intensive and energy-related sectors, including power generation, utility, oil & gas, midstream energy, chemicals, metals and mining as well as building materials, are among this first wave. Such researches are intended to help frame discussions with investors and issuers. The double materiality framework in the research, echos market’s increasing demand to not only focus on financial impact but impact on stakeholders as well. S&P notes ESG’s financial impact is evolving and hence takes a forward-looking view on financial impact. The agency notes that the financial impact of ESG factors is most often realized through drivers related to public awareness, regulations, legal actions and accounting methods. S&P expects to release such materiality maps on other sectors over the coming weeks.

9. 标普发布首批行业ESG重要风险因子概览，分别从利益相关方和信用角度分享相关风险因素。首批行业ESG风险概览包括发电、公用事业、石油和天然气、中游能源、化工、金属和采矿以及建筑材料在内的7个能源密集型和能源相关行业，旨在促进与投资者和发行人的沟通。研究中的ESG双重重要性框架(double materiality framework)迎合了市场对财务影响和利益相关方影响并重的分析逻辑。标普指出，ESG的财务影响瞬息万变，因此财务影响因素具有一定前瞻性。标普还指出，ESG风险因子对财务的影响通常来源于ESG公众意识、法规、法律行动和会计方法等因素。标普预计将于未来几周发布其他行业的重要因子概览。

10. Fitch highlights the social risk arising from shifting consumer preferences or social pressures and resistance in the latest of its ‘ESG in Credit’ series. These shifts, driven by consumers’ desire to avoid harm or do good, are largely outside issuers’ direct control and can be highly dynamic over time. They can affect demand for products and services, impair operations and alter market shares. Mitigation of associated risks, such as strikes, boycotts and shifting consumer preferences, therefore rests heavily on the level of awareness on the part of the issuers of these underlying shifts, and actions to manage their operations to limit their exposure. The pharmaceuticals, energy & natural resources and tobacco sectors have historically been at the forefront of such risks. Technology, some non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs), as well as certain pools of RMBS transactions, are also becoming increasing exposed to this kind of social impacts.

10. 惠誉在其最新的ESG信用点评(ESG in Credit)系列中强调了消费者偏好转变或社会性压力及抗争所带来的社会风险。这些转变是由消费者避免伤害或行善的主观意愿所驱动的，在很大程度上超出了发行人的直接控制范围，并可能随着时间的推移进行高度动态变化。它们会影响消费者对产品和服务的需求，削弱运营并改变市场份额。因此，降低相关风险（如罢工、抵制和消费者偏好转变）在很大程度上取决于发行人对这些潜在转变的认知水平，及其为降低此类风险采取的运营管理行动。制药、能源和自然资源以及烟草行业历来处于此类风险的高发带。科技、部分非银行金融机构（NBFI）以及某些个人住房抵押贷款资产支持证券（RMBS）也越来越容易受到此类社会影响。

Bonus

买十送一

Moody's has published a cross-sector, global comment on the "G" factor of ESG relating to how they assess privately owned entities. The agency notes that they do not generalize the view that privately owned entities (“POEs”) have weak financial strategies, are lacking internal controls or show other inferior characteristics related to other important governance considerations; however, the private nature of the entity can make it more challenging to assess governance strength. Private ownership would tend to equate to elevated "G" risk and potentially reflect a more negative impact on credit ratings due to highly centralized business and financial strategy decision making, lack of public, quality, consistent and timely disclosure of financial information as well as limited genuine board independence.

穆迪发表专题报告简评对私企的 “G”（治理）因素的评估。穆迪强调其并不会笼统地认为私企的财务政策薄弱、缺乏内部管控，或在其他重要治理因素的表现上略逊一筹；但是，私企性质可能导致评估其治理水平的难度更大。私企的治理风险会相对较高，并有可能导致其信用评级因股权结构的高度集中受到负面影响，例如业务和财务战略决策一言堂，缺乏公开、高质、一致和及时的财务信息披露，以及缺乏独立性的董事会等。

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Source: Moody’s, S&P and Fitch, Sustainalytics, MSCI

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