Disruptive Delivery Data Explorer

Welcome to Institute Insights, where TBI experts bring to life our work enabling political leaders to drive change that transforms lives.

In this edition, Research and Data Unit Manager Robert Johnson looks at new TBI research on the shifting political landscape across six major democracies. Drawing on polling from 12,000 voters, our Disruptive Delivery Data Explorer maps emerging voter blocs and what they mean for the future of mainstream politics. Explore the divides, discover surprising coalitions and see where real transformation could begin. Start your journey now.

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Exploring Politics in the Age of Disruption

What explains the decline of mainstream political parties across the West? Are insurgent parties in different countries tapping into the same frustrations and desires? Where might a new consensus be found?  

TBI report Disruptive Delivery: Meeting the Unmet Demand in Politics reveals that voters want bold, transformative change to address widespread perceptions of national decline. Conventional political offerings are failing to meet this complex demand, as voters increasingly spurn traditional ideological categories. 

In addition to this report, TBI recently launched a Disruptive Delivery Data Explorer, based on the polling of 12,000 people in six major democracies. It enables you to explore the data for yourself – and in the meantime we’ve picked out some of the most interesting findings.

EXPLORE THE DATA

Political Parties: The New Clusters 

It’s tempting to assume that the motives behind votes for Reform in the UK, Marine Le Pen in France and AfD in Germany have been much the same. But how similar are these voters in practice? Can lessons from one country be applied to another? If so, it might be possible to develop theories for what is driving voters in this age of disruption. 

Based on our polling of 12,000 people in six major democracies, we have identified five core metrics for understanding politics in the age of disruption. 

1. Traditional left versus right: views on taxation, privatisation and economic policy.

2. Open-closed values: attitudes towards immigration, national identity and traditional ideals. 

3. Economic optimism: voters’ beliefs about their future prosperity. 

4. Institutional trust: confidence in government, judiciary and the media. 

5. Hard work pays: belief in meritocracy versus systemic barriers. 

We analysed voters using a clustering algorithm, identifying five distinct clusters of parties across six countries.

• Insurgent Left: 13% of voters – Greens 🇦🇺 NDP 🇨🇦 Mélenchon 🇫🇷 The Left 🇩🇪 Green 🇬🇧.

• Established Left: 37% of voters – Labor 🇦🇺 Liberal 🇨🇦 Alliance 90/Greens 🇩🇪 SPD 🇩🇪 Labour 🇬🇧 Lib Dem 🇬🇧 SNP 🇬🇧 Biden 🇺🇸.

• Traditional Centre: 26% of voters – Liberal/National 🇦🇺 Bloc Québécois 🇨🇦 Green 🇨🇦 Macron 🇫🇷 CDU 🇩🇪 FDP 🇩🇪 Conservative 🇬🇧.

• Established Right: 14% of voters – Conservative 🇨🇦 CSU 🇩🇪 Trump 🇺🇸.

• Insurgent Right: 10% of voters – People’s Party 🇨🇦 Le Pen 🇫🇷 AfD 🇩🇪 Reform UK 🇬🇧.

Navigating New Political Landscapes 

Using the interactive slider on our Political Landscapes tool within the Disruptive Delivery Data Explorer, you can quickly pinpoint coalition opportunities and risks, and consider where leaders should position themselves based on where voters are distributed along a sliding scale on key issues.

• Across all countries surveyed, immigration emerged as a uniquely divisive issue. Many voters of different political colours expressed immigration scepticism, challenging progressive mainstream parties to balance retaining pro-immigration supporters while addressing wider voter concerns.

Some issues are more unifying than divisive:

• Health-Care Reform: There is strong cross-party support for radical health-care reform, with 41 per cent of voters across countries choosing a score between 1–3 out of 10.

• Artificial Intelligence: Optimism on AI’s impact on public services and the economy is also cross-partisan, providing an opportunity for mainstream parties to deliver effective reforms and rebuild voter trust.

Branches of Belief

Voters don’t fit neatly into ideological boxes. Someone economically left-wing might also be culturally conservative. Another voter may distrust institutions but still believe in state intervention.

These combinations of beliefs often differ from political leaders. In the age of disruption, this heightens ideological tensions within parties. Our Branches of Belief tool shows how views on different issues intersect and the relative scale of these coalitions.

For example, parties that advocate for a tougher approach to immigration also often advocate for radical privatisation. For instance, 35 per cent of voters across the countries view immigrants negatively (the core insurgent-right vote) but just 13 per cent of those people (6 per cent of the whole sample) support privatising health care, a stance previously pushed by insurgent-right leaders. 

Mapping these voter profiles reveals internal tensions, new coalitions and unexpected common ground. 

Root Causes of Voters’ Choices 

Why do voters choose one party over another? Our Root Causes machine-learning tool identifies which beliefs and issues most strongly predict voter choices. It can be used to find out what really influences how different people vote, by party, country, age and education. 

The results often confirm expectations. For instance, immigration views strongly predict voting for Marine Le Pen versus Emmanuel Macron in France. But sometimes they surprise: in Australia, voter positions on the Israel-Palestine conflict sharply distinguish Labor from Liberal supporters. 

Globally, we find the best predictors of someone voting for the established-left parties are positive views on immigrants and higher trust in the establishment. It is striking how infrequently views on tax or welfare policy appear to determine voting patterns today.

The Case for Disruptive Delivery 

Voters aren’t turning to insurgent parties because they have developed extreme views: they are doing it because mainstream politics isn’t delivering. This isn’t about values, it’s about outcomes. 

Trust is collapsing. Public services are under pressure. Institutions feel distant. The political marketplace is broken, creating space for disruptive forces to rise. 

This tool cuts through assumptions. It reveals shifting coalitions and crumbling support, and illustrates where opportunities lie to rebuild trust and win back voters. 

Politics is volatile, but it’s not directionless. The challenge for mainstream parties is clear: either disrupt or be disrupted. 

EXPLORE THE DATA AND SEE FOR YOURSELF

Disruptive Delivery Data Explorer authors: Robert Johnson, Kayla Crowley-Carbery, Alex Otway, Tim Rhydderch

Experts in Action

TBI at GITEX ASIA: Reimagining the State Through Tech Partnerships

Next week, TBI heads to Singapore to spotlight how governments and technology leaders can reimagine the state for a new era. We’re bringing together global experts for two main stage sessions, led by PeiChin Tay and Cansu Deniz Bayrak, to explore some of the most urgent issues shaping public-sector transformation.

AI & the Future of Work

How can governments and businesses prepare the workforce for an AI-driven economy? This session will be moderated by PeiChin T., Senior Advisor at TBI, and feature:

• Andrew Ure, Senior Director of Government Affairs & Public Policy, Google

• Professor Alan Chan, Provost, Singapore Management University

🗓️ Friday 25 April | ⏰ 11:10am to 11:40am SGT | 📍 Marina Bay Sands

Partnerships for Innovation

How can multi-helix partnerships fuel R&D and resilience in a fragmented world? This session will be moderated by Cansu Deniz Bayrak FRSA, Director of Global Tech Partnerships at TBI, and feature:

• Kim Ngoc Thanh Nga, Deputy Director General, Vietnam National Innovation Center

• Professor Benjamin C.K. Tee, Vice President of Innovation & Enterprise, NUS Enterprise

• Nam Guan NG, PMP, Senior Director of APJ AI Innovation Hub, Dell Technologies

🗓️ Friday 25 April | ⏰ 12pm to 12:30pm SGT | 📍 Marina Bay Sands

These sessions reflect TBI’s mission of working with bold tech partners and forward-thinking governments to build inclusive, future-ready public services. This is how we’re reimagining the state.

Innovation Zero World Congress

TBI Director of Climate & Energy Policy Lindy Fursman will deliver a keynote at Innovation Zero World Congress on how policymakers, financiers and business leaders are driving low-carbon investments in non-OECD countries. The session will explore innovative strategies that bypass fossil-fuel-dependent models, prioritising renewables, sustainable infrastructure and equitable growth to accelerate a clean-energy transition.

When: 📅 Tuesday 29 April 2025⏰ 3:50pm to 4:20pm (BST)📍Olympia London

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