Protecting the Future

Welcome to Institute Insights, where TBI experts bring to life our work enabling political leaders to drive change that transforms lives.

In this edition, Senior Policy Advisor Devorah West sets out why climate resilience must become central to national economic planning, outlining the urgent to move from reactive crisis response to proactive, strategic investment. Digital & Tech Transformation Manager Joseph Rubambe highlights how a partnership between TBI, Planet and the government of Zanzibar is using geospatial technology to support its citizens in smarter, more sustainable ways, including by strengthening climate resilience.

Our new paper The Climate Paradox: Why We Need to Reset Action on Climate Change, with foreword by Tony Blair, sets out how to address the growing gap between climate ambition and delivery, looking at the technologies and policies that could be deployed to drive meaningful change. To receive it, sign up to the TBI Newsletter.

Why We Need to Build Climate-Resilient Economies 

As global economic leaders gathered in Washington, DC last week for the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, the urgency of climate resilience was largely missing from the agenda. In a world increasingly shaped by climate shocks, resilience – and the role of financial institutions in securing it – should be a central focus. 

Extreme weather is the new normal. Once-rare events such as record-breaking heatwaves, catastrophic floods, prolonged droughts and destructive wildfires now strike with relentless frequency. In just the past year, we’ve seen the hottest year on record, Canada’s worst wildfire season, and devastating floods in Asia and Africa. 

Yet too many governments are still locked in outdated patterns, reacting only after disaster strikes. 

The Case for Economic Resilience  

Climate change is no longer a future risk; it’s a present-day economic threat. Global GDP could shrink by up to 19 per cent by 2050, and governments face an annual adaptation-finance gap of up to $366 billion. These figures make one thing clear: the cost of inaction is mounting. 

Resilience must be recognised as a strategic investment – not a luxury or a sunk cost. Smart, strategic spending on adaptation and resilience strengthens national security, supports economic stability and lays the foundation for long-term prosperity. 

Our paper Protecting the Future: An Agenda for Building Climate-Resilient Economies outlines practical steps that governments can use to navigate from reactive crisis management to proactive decision-making driven by data. 

That journey is already underway, with promising innovations now being deployed. In the Philippines, TBI has partnered with Planet and Thinking Machines Data Science, firms that are using AI and satellite data to help governments anticipate and prepare for landslides and other climate hazards – saving lives and protecting infrastructure.  

This agenda isn’t just for environment ministers. It’s for finance ministers, central bankers, infrastructure leads and heads of government. Resilience building must be embedded in the heart of national economic planning. 

How We’re Using Data to Build a More Resilient Future

How can governments prepare for a future shaped by climate disruption, rapid urbanisation and growing resource constraints? One powerful tool is satellite imagery. By providing timely, high-resolution data, it enables governments to plan more strategically, respond to risks faster and deliver better services to their citizens. 

In Zanzibar, the Tony Blair Institute and Planet joined forces with the Zanzibar Planning Commission to roll out a geographic information system (GIS), a geospatial pilot programme that’s helping officials harness the power of satellite imagery to support coastal-erosion monitoring, mangrove protection, marine mapping and urban planning. 

Rather than approaching the project with predefined goals, TBI worked with government stakeholders to identify locally grounded challenges where GIS could make a meaningful difference. 

Climate Resilience 

Few places are more exposed to the realities of climate change than small island states, where rising tides and frequent storms can threaten livelihoods and critical ecosystems.  

In Zanzibar, geospatial data are helping the government not only to predict these challenges but also to respond quickly and strategically. Officials can now monitor shoreline retreat and spot illegal deforestation by using near-daily satellite updates. These tools are enhancing climate resilience by putting actionable information into the hands of decision-makers. 

Government Innovation and Collaboration 

But our partnership isn’t just about new tools; it’s about reimagining how government works and finding new ways to serve people better. The real key to lasting change is technology that actually solves problems. 

Since May 2023, more than 50 officials from multiple agencies have been trained in GIS. TBI-led workshops have aligned ministries around shared goals. Rather than pursuing a generic tech rollout, the focus has remained on solving local problems such as urban sprawl and flood risk. 

Crucially, TBI played a central role in bridging the gap between procurement and tangible results. By working side by side with government, we made sure that technology wasn’t just deployed, but embedded into existing systems in ways that matched institutional capabilities and fit Zanzibar’s unique context. 

By putting innovation at the centre of Zanzibar's development priorities, as set out in its 2050 vision, the initiative is strengthening not just ecosystems but the institutions that support them. 

Seeing Results 

Zanzibar is already seeing results. Near-daily updates now allow the government to monitor coastal erosion in real time, helping areas such as Bwejuu prepare for rising tides. Offshore, marine mapping is supporting more sustainable fishing in Mnemba. And in Paje and Michamvi, authorities can detect illegal mangrove logging earlier – and respond more quickly. These insights are transforming decision-making and directly improving lives across the islands. 

What made this initiative successful wasn’t just the technology; it was the approach. TBI provided tailored support at every stage: from co-designing practical solutions with local teams and delivering technical training, to embedding GIS tools into everyday workflows. This model of strategic enablement has laid the foundation for long-term success. 

Next Steps 

This data-led, locally owned approach – shaped by real challenges on the ground – offers a model for others. It shows that climate adaptation isn’t just about global funds or carbon targets. It’s about how governments plan, prioritise and serve. 

As Zanzibar scales this work, there’s an opportunity to move from pilot to platform, embedding geospatial intelligence into the everyday business of governance. TBI is working alongside government to explore long-term funding options and ensure these innovations can be scaled and sustained. 

With the right partnerships and political leadership, digital tools can become tools for resilience.  

“GIS is an indispensable tool for the Zanzibar Planning Commission, helping us make informed, data-driven decisions that shape the future of Zanzibar. By integrating spatial data (from Planet) with key planning insights, GIS empowers us to allocate development resources efficiently, improve infrastructure and promote environmental sustainability. As we handle the challenges of urbanisation and growth, GIS remains a cornerstone in ensuring that Zanzibar’s development is both strategic and sustainable.”

Dr. Rahma Mahfoudh (Executive Secretary, Zanzibar Planning Commission)

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