Issue 11 - Well, Things Could and Did Get Worse!

The flood of climate-relevant posting on LinkedIn is unrelenting.  We’re doing our best to select posts we think readers will find interesting, but we’re well aware that we’re only able to cover a slice of the LinkedIn commentary universe.

This 11th issue of the Newsletter follows the same systems-based thinking format you’ve seen in recent issues, although the choice of where to put individual posts can be pretty arbitrary. We start with the “Big Picture” that sets the context for much more granular climate-related discussions. Then we move on to the “Science and Impacts,” “Solutions and Barriers,” and “Theories of Change.”

The Big Picture

The climate crisis demands systemic change, but what does that mean for individual action? 2025/10 Adam Rome_ If Systemic Change is Needed, What is the Point of Individual Decision-Making? recommends a great LinkedIn back-and-forth between Raz Godelnik and Auden Schendler discussing this key question. Their discussion highlights the tension between personal responsibility and the structural barriers to meaningful climate progress.

But is the world truly undergoing an energy transition? 2025/10 Alessandro Blasi_Are We In an Energy Transition? notes that the prevailing view that we transitioned from wood to coal, and from coal to oil and gas, and are now transitioning to renewables, misses the fact that we’ve really just added new energy sources, as opposed to transitioning away from the prior sources. If that’s the case, how do we ensure renewables truly displace fossil fuels instead of merely supplementing them?

Meanwhile, geopolitics is emerging as a major climate variable. 2025/10 Cary Krosinsky_Tackling Climate Change and Hostility Towards China are Incompatible argues that China’s economic success is critical to tackling climate change, and undermining China’s economy will undermine climate change mitigation.

On the international stage, there’s finally some progress: 2025/10 Climate Focus_Biodiversity Agreement Reached in Rome reports that the negotiations that failed to reach a conclusion at COP16 in Colombia finally succeeded when negotiations resumed in Rome. But back in the U.S., the political landscape is taking a darker turn. 2025/10 Joe Romm_The FBI Threatens to Charge EPA Grant Recipients With Fraud represents a remarkable escalation in the Administration’s efforts to shut down environmental and social justice efforts.

Even the integrity of the climate movement itself is under scrutiny. 2025/10 Joseph Gelfer_Does the “Professional Climate Movement” Lack Integrity? suggests that many ordinary people consider the professional climate movement to be full of over-privileged scammers. Joseph’s post set the stage for a “vigorous” but interesting conversation with Niall Enright on the nature of the climate movement.

In the political realm, climate advocates are grappling with unexpected shifts. 2025/10 Joseph Gelfer_How Should Climate Advocates React to Mark Carney’s Election as Canadian PM? suggests that climate populism would have resulted in a very different choice of candidates for the PM. And in Europe, climate law continues to evolve — 2025/10 Natalia Kobylarz _Switzerland Has Not Yet Fully Implemented the European Court of Human Rights' Climate Judgment updates the status of the legal case of Verein KlimaSeniorinnen Schweiz and Others v. Switzerland.

Looking ahead, optimism remains. 2025/10 Simon Stiell_2025 is a Critical Year for Climate Action represents an optimistic look at global climate efforts from the head of the UNFCCC Secretariat. But history offers a cautionary tale: 2025/10 Zsolt Lengyel_History Has a Way of Repeating Itself reminds us that an American President tried to “annex” Canada once before through the application of tariffs, and failed spectacularly. Could today’s geopolitical maneuvers on climate suffer the same fate?

Science and Impacts

The financial sector’s blind spots are coming into focus. 2025/08 Carles Herrero_New Study Suggests Banking Sector’s Exposure to Climate Risk Larger Than Thought challenges the somewhat conventional view that banks have their risks under control. Climate risk may be more deeply embedded in financial institutions than previously assumed, raising concerns about long-term economic stability.

The housing crisis isn’t just about affordability—it’s about climate risk, too. 2025/08 Darius Nassiry_We Are Building Way Too Many Homes in High Risk Areas reports that the percentage of single-family homes being built in areas rated as “severe” or “extreme” for climate disaster risks rose from 49% in 2014 to 57% in 2023, before a slight decline in 2024. Are we designing future ghost towns in high-risk floodplains and wildfire zones?

A new tool aims to track planetary solvency. 2025/09 IFA_New Planetary Solvency Risk Dashboard Announced builds on the release of the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ recent Planetary Solvency Report, a critical step toward measuring systemic risk at a global scale.

Electricity prices are rising—but not for the reasons some claim. 2025/09 Jamie Skaar_Don’t Blame the Energy Transition for Rising Electricity Bills exposes a shadowy group of consultants helping utilities extract billions in excess profits from American households. The narrative that renewables are driving up costs might be hiding a different, more intentional cause.

FEMA’s climate risk tool makes a return. 2025/09 Laurie Schoeman_FEMA’s NRI Future Climate Risk Index Is Back! highlights the restoration of this vital resource, which had been removed from the FEMA website, making it harder for communities to assess their climate vulnerabilities.

The military’s stance on climate change is shifting—but not in the right direction. 2025/09 Laurie Schoeman_Let’s Not Forget the Military’s Historical Position on Climate Change points out that Secretary Hegseth’s declaration that the Department of Defense does not “do that Climate Change crap” is completely out of sync with decades of military analysis that has viewed climate change as a serious national security threat.

The Southern Ocean might not be the buffer we thought it was. 2025/09 Roberta Boscolo_New Research Points to Problems With Southern Ocean Current warns that this crucial oceanic system, which helps regulate global climate, is showing signs of vulnerability to warming, with significant implications for global weather patterns.

A cautionary tale from the past. 2025/10 Ed Hawkins_Toxic Town - Netflix Retells A Real-Life Toxic Pollution Event in The Town of Corby (UK) offers a stark warning as the Trump administration rolls back environmental regulations. The case of Corby serves as a reminder of what happens when environmental protections are sacrificed in the name of short-term economic gain.

Solutions and Barriers

Climate solutions are advancing on multiple fronts, but they continue to face significant barriers—whether due to misguided policies, insufficient funding, or entrenched interests resisting change.

The Ecosystem of Wicked Problems  Climate change is not an isolated challenge; it exists within an "ecosystem of wicked problems"—a web of interconnected crises spanning energy, economy, biodiversity, and policy. 2025/09 Adrian Robke_We Face an Ecosystem of Wicked Problems illustrates this reality with a striking graphic from Christian Sarkar and Philip Kotler, reinforcing the need for systemic solutions rather than siloed approaches.

Carbon Removal: Underfunded and Overhyped?  Despite growing enthusiasm for gigaton-scale carbon removal, the EU is directing a mere 0.1% of its climate funding to the sector. 2025/09 Carbon Gap_The EU is Allocating Just 0.1% of Climate Funding to Carbon Removal argues that without strong regulatory support and subsidies, the promise of large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) may remain more theory than reality.

Harnessing Prediction Markets for Climate Insights  Could climate forecasting be improved with market-driven intelligence? A new initiative expanding across UK universities suggests so. 2025/09 Crucial_Lancaster University Management School Expands Climate Prediction Markets Initiative highlights how prediction markets could enhance our ability to anticipate and respond to climate risks.

Oil and Gas: A Waning Investment? Fossil fuel companies may not be as financially invincible as many assume. 2025/09 Jean Boissinot_Over 10 Years Oil and Gas Stocks Have Badly Under-Performed the General Market suggests that investor excitement about oil and gas is lower than perceived. However, 2025/09 Paul Rissman_Not So Fast in Comparing Oil and Gas Returns challenges this claim, noting that different timeframes yield different conclusions.

Financing Nature-Based Solutions  Scaling nature-based solutions requires capital, yet funding mechanisms remain fragmented. 2025/09 Nicola Ranger_An Investment Toolkit for Nature-Based Solutions introduces a new toolkit that maps the financing landscape, aiming to connect investors with viable green projects.

Hydrogen Hype or Misguided Strategy?  Hydrogen is frequently touted as a key player in the clean energy transition, but the European Union's current approach raises eyebrows. 2025/10 Christoph Bieri_The European Union’s Badly Misguided Hydrogen Strategy critiques the strategy as an illogical attempt to build a supply chain for a market that doesn't yet exist. Likewise, 2025/10 Hanno Böck_Will Countries like Germany and Japan Really Replace Fossil Fuel Imports With Hydrogen Imports? questions whether large-scale hydrogen imports—often in the form of ammonia—make any economic or logistical sense.

Geothermal: A Game-Changer for Data Centers? Could geothermal energy meet the soaring electricity demand of data centers? A new report from the Rhodium Group makes a compelling case for "enhanced geothermal systems" (EGS). 2025/10 Joe Romm_Geothermal Can Meet 100% of Data Center Demand In Most Markets At Low Cost argues that geothermal is a viable alternative—if permitting hurdles can be overcome.

The CCS and DAC Debate Carbon capture and direct air capture (DAC) technologies remain contentious. 2025/10 Mark Jacobson_Demonstrating Why CCS and DAC Increase CO2 and Impose Much Greater Social Costs Than Electrifying With Wind, Water, and Solar presents a stark critique, arguing that CCS and DAC not only fail to reduce emissions but actively increase CO₂ levels while imposing higher costs than direct electrification.

The Bioenergy Paradox  Bioenergy subsidies are driving excessive logging, disrupting wood markets, and worsening air pollution—often without delivering meaningful climate benefits. 2025/10 Martin Pigeon_Under All Scenarios Bioenergy Worsens the Climate Crisis (At Least in the Short Term) critiques the EU's push for biomass energy, highlighting the unintended environmental and economic consequences of these policies.

Here is the fully revised Theories of Change section for Issue #11 of the Climate Change on LinkedIn Newsletter, ensuring that all 29 hyperlinks are included with the correct year and week number before each post author’s name:

Theories of Change: Pathways to a Low-Carbon Future

Voluntary Corporate Action: A Mixed Track Record

Corporate sustainability efforts remain a key component of climate strategies, but questions persist about their effectiveness. 2025/11 Ken Pucker_Can “Sustaining Innovation” Deliver Sustainability? examines Amazon’s emissions reduction efforts, where carbon intensity has decreased even as total emissions have grown. This raises the question: Are corporate climate efforts just maintaining the status quo rather than driving transformative change? Similarly, 2025/10 Ken Pucker_It’s Not Just Corporate Climate Targets; Plastic Packaging Commitments Are Also in Retreat highlights a troubling trend—corporations, including those in India, are rolling back sustainability commitments, even suing governments over recycled content mandates. Transparency in corporate sustainability remains a challenge. 2025/11 Ken Pucker_Changes to EU’s CSDD Means That You Won’t Know Much About Companies’ Supply Chains warns that the rollback of corporate due diligence requirements will limit public insight into companies’ human rights and environmental impacts.

Policy and Regulation: The Foundations of Systemic Change

Policymakers continue to shape the climate transition through legislation and international agreements. 2025/08 David Carlin_What’s In the EU Omnibus When It Comes to Sustainability? provides a detailed breakdown of recent sustainability-related policy changes in the EU, signaling potential new expectations for businesses and investors.

But global governance challenges persist. 2025/09 Andreas Rasche_Are the SDGs Down for Good? notes that with the U.S. distancing itself from global development commitments, the likelihood of large-scale international progress is slim. 2025/09 Emily Iona Stewart_Paris Agreement Reflections As Multilateralism Is Disintegrating Before Our Eyes reflects on the initial optimism surrounding the Paris Agreement and what the UNFCCC COP process represents today.

At the national level, 2025/10 Michael Barnard_What’s Next for Carbon Pricing in Canada examines the crossroads for Canada’s carbon pricing policies, while 2025/10 Karl Mathiesen_Is Green Procurement the Answer? questions whether government mandates to buy "greener" products will lead to real emissions reductions.

Nature-based solutions are also a focal point. 2025/09 Jen Stebbing_Read Lucy Almond’s “The Durability Distraction That’s Delaying Climate Action” argues that nature-based solutions are critical to climate mitigation, regardless of their permanence. However, 2025/09 Johan Rockstrom_Account for Forest Carbon Sinks and Fossil Fuel Emissions Separately critiques the practice of treating forest carbon sinks as offsets for fossil fuel emissions, a concern echoed in 2025/10 Glen Peters_Should Norwegian Forests Count Towards Its Climate Target?, which warns of the risks associated with including forests in national climate targets.

Technology Innovation and Deployment: Scaling Climate Solutions

The path to net zero depends on accelerating technological deployment, but structural barriers remain. 2025/10 Paul Gambill_Carbon Removal Isn’t Going to Scale Unless . . . argues that the current system isn’t structured to deliver the carbon removal required for global climate goals.

Hydrogen’s climate impacts are also under scrutiny. 2025/09 Michael Barnard_Denying the Climate Impacts of Hydrogen Emissions Isn’t a Good Strategy asserts that the warming potential of H₂ emissions needs to be recognized and accounted for. Meanwhile, 2025/10 Peter Ellis_We Need a New Term – Natural Climate Values (NCV) suggests a clearer distinction between additional and non-additional natural climate solutions.

Finance and investment trends signal a shift toward valuing nature-based assets. 2025/09 Matthew Ross_Has Natural Capital’s Time Arrived? suggests that financial heavyweights like BlackRock are positioning themselves ahead of a potential market revolution in natural assets. 2025/10 Matthew Ross_Natural Capital’s Silent Takeover of Global Finance further highlights how the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund is incorporating natural capital risk assessments across nearly its entire portfolio.

Market Mechanisms: Challenges in Aligning Finance with Climate Goals

Market-based climate solutions continue to provoke debate. 2025/10 Ketan Joshi_Assuming That Carbon Offsets Are Legitimate Unless Proven Otherwise Inverts the Burden of Proof argues that without systemic reforms, offset schemes will continue to over-credit emissions reductions, enabling greenwashing rather than real climate progress. Similarly, 2025/10 Mark Trexler_Offset Durability Is a Legitimately Challenging Question warns that while temporary carbon storage has value, it does not resolve the fundamental issue of durability as applied to offsets.

The role of investors in climate action is evolving. 2025/10 Alex Edmans_Why the Investor Case for Climate Action is Not Black and White discusses recent research questioning the effectiveness of current investor-driven climate initiatives. Meanwhile, 2025/10 Lisa Sachs_We Need A Coherent and Honest Conversation on Climate Finance and Net Zero calls for greater transparency on why banks continue to lower their climate commitments.

Conclusions

We hope you’ve found this issue of “Climate Change on LinkedIn” thought-provoking, which is its primary goal.  If you’re not already subscribed, you can do so here:   Climate Change on LinkedIn!  

You might also be interested in Mark Trexler’s new “Climate Learning With AI Newsletter.” It’s not a typical newsletter; it’s really a way to share some of the outputs he is generating from intensive work with generative AI tools. Through the Newsletter he'll share examples of those AI-generated outputs that readers would be interested in. ‼ Trigger Warning: These will be AI-GENERATED OUTPUTS. If you don't want to be exposed to AI-generated content don't sign up for the Newsletter! If you’re interested in exploring how AI can help us more rapidly come up various climate change learning curves, do sign up for the Newsletter here on LinkedIn. 

Mark Trexler and Zsolt Lengyel