Urgency, Risk, and the Rewiring of Systems

Last week on LinkedIn, the selected contributions call for systems thinking, bold political choices, and better storytelling to drive climate action before windows of opportunity close.

🌡️ The Unmistakable Reality: Beyond 1.5°C and Compounding Impacts

The science is growing sharper—and more alarming.

• James Hansen's Research Confirmed: Climate Emergency Twice as Urgent Bruce Hanson highlighted a new paper confirming Earth’s energy imbalance is rising at twice the rate predicted by the IPCC. Leslie Recksiedler noted this means “all the models and predictions were wrong.”

• Irreversible Damages Beyond 1.5°C Scott Kelly, drawing on two Nature articles, emphasized that even temporary overshoot of 1.5°C could cause permanent Arctic ice loss and collapse of coral and tropical ecosystems. Impacts rise non-linearly. Benedikt von Butler remarked how astonishing it is that such risks are being taken with so little justification.

• Regional Warming Exceeds Global Models’ Predictions Jan Rapan reported that EU regions like Slovakia have already warmed by 3°C—double the global average—stressing that climate is a physical process indifferent to political delay.

• Systemic Risks of Overshooting 1.5°C Ajay Gambhir shared a systems map showing that overshoot increases reinforcing feedback loops and tipping points, complicating future mitigation. Sarah Patterson asked why we keep calling these “risks” when they’re increasingly realities.

• Every Fraction of a Degree Matters Ketan Joshi warned against fatalism, stating it’s “morally gross” to give up on mitigation. Tammy Mackenzie stressed that while we may have failed to stop global warming, it’s not too late to keep a better world possible.

⚖️ The Policy and Financial Labyrinth: Hurdles to Progress

• UN Climate Negotiations in Bonn: Deep Divides on Finance and Carbon Markets Joanna Cabello reported that rich countries are blocking grant-based public finance and restructuring talks, leaving climate-vulnerable nations without the fiscal space to act. Myriam Vander Stichele emphasized how debt burdens compound these barriers.

• Critiques of Current Climate Politics and Funding Nicolò Wojewoda critiqued incrementalism, stating that current policies favor “addition over transition” and that fiscal constraints are a political choice, not economic necessity.

• EU ETS2 Price Caps and Decarbonisation Goals William Todts highlighted a push to cap carbon prices below €45/tonne for buildings and transport, risking emissions reductions. Magnus Nilsson questioned whether price caps would undercut the whole system.

• The Elusive ‘Just Transition’ Yvo De Boer questioned whether truly just transitions have ever been achieved, particularly when wealthy countries ask poorer ones to limit growth. Zsolt Lengyel warned that “just transition” might become a political brake on ambition.

💰 The Economic Fallout: Insurance, Investment, and Carbon Markets

• The Breakdown of the Insurance Industry Alex Wilks noted that insurability is becoming the economic early warning system for climate risk. Jeremy Leggett reminded readers that insurers have been warned for 30+ years.

• A Long Tale of Warnings Ignored in the Financial Sector Jeremy Leggett detailed a decades-long pattern of inaction from the financial sector despite clear warnings. Bryan Joseph pushed back, arguing Leggett misunderstands the insurance industry's role.

• PCRAM 2.0: Physical Climate Risk Appraisal for Investors Stephanie Pfeifer announced a new methodology to help investors evaluate and integrate physical climate risks using science-based models.

• De-Risking the Voluntary Carbon Market Edit Kiss emphasized that to unlock capital for high-integrity carbon projects, risk must be systematically addressed. Sergey Ivliev suggested dynamic buffer pools and full lifecycle risk monitoring.

🧠 Innovation, Communication, and Education: Paving the Way Forward

• Climate Change as a Pedagogical Emergency Duncan Austin described climate change as a crisis of thought requiring a systems lens. His course draws on David Orr’s idea that “education is no longer about what to learn but what not to unlearn.”

• Making Climate Change Relatable Through Storytelling Dominique Chantale Alepin highlighted Clarkson’s Farm as unexpectedly effective climate storytelling. Jacqueline Kerr agreed—relatable, community-grounded communicators often outperform scientists.

• Extreme Weather Attribution and Climate Policy Support Viktoria Cologna showed that subjective belief that weather events are caused by climate change strongly predicts policy support—an important insight for climate communicators.

• Barriers to Natural Climate Solutions Rhett Ayers Butler reported that NCS remain underutilized not due to science, but due to poor governance, weak incentives, and public skepticism. Robert Youngberg suggested mechanisms like a “carbon coin” could accelerate funding.

• Nature’s Role in Climate Goals: Durability, Not Just Permanence Jen Stebbing argued that nature's climate benefits are durable, even if not “permanent,” and that waiting for perfect solutions is riskier than using the tools we have now.

• SustainGPT – ESG Mapper for Navigating Standards Vijaya Yellamraju launched a GPT-based tool to help sustainability professionals navigate the maze of ESG standards. Nimisha S Sodha called it “amazing.”

• Open-Access Tools for Climate and Nature Risk Analysis Hannes Matt compiled over 70 tools to support open, transparent risk assessment—ideal for early-stage work or smaller actors.

• AI’s Role in Climate Solutions: Overhyped? Alistair Alexander warned that many AI climate claims are speculative and may entrench unsustainable patterns. Jim Banks agreed, calling current AI systems “feedback loops for overshoot.”

• Transparency and Accountability Deficits in Global Climate Regime Max van Deursen showed how UNFCCC transparency reports reveal performance data that too often goes unaccounted for in negotiations.

• Global Progress on the Sustainable Development Goals Nawar Alsaadi noted that no SDG is on track for full achievement by 2030. Only 17% of targets are progressing, with conflict and fiscal limits stalling action.

• Could Degrowth Save the World? Timothée Parrique celebrated a BBC News documentary that took degrowth seriously. Tom Goodwin challenged the framing, suggesting “thoughtful consumption” as a better term.

📣 Conclusion: A Call for Deeper Understanding and Collective Action

This week’s discussions revealed hard truths: scientific models may be too conservative, financial systems are under strain, and political progress is choked by inaction and fragmentation. Yet there are sparks of innovation—in communications, risk modeling, and systemic framing—that offer at least some “hope.”

Mark Trexler and Zsolt Lengyel