Kenya’s Nationally Determined Contribution Analysis

The global response to the escalating threat of climate change is anchored by the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international treaty adopted in 2015 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). At its core, the Paris Agreement aims to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The primary mechanism through which countries communicate their efforts to achieve this goal is the Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).  

Through the NDC a country essentially defines its national climate goals and actions, outlining its commitments to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (mitigation) and how to adapt to the inevitable impacts of climate change. Parties that adopted the Paris Agreement are obligated to submit their NDCs and to update them every five years, with the expectation that each subsequent NDC will demonstrate greater ambition than the previous one.

Despite their central role, NDCs have faced several criticisms. A primary concern revolves around the lack of comparability and transparency across different NDCs. The scope, timelines, methodologies, and levels of detail vary considerably, making it challenging to objectively compare the efforts of different countries and to track overall global progress towards the Paris Agreement's goals. Additionally, some NDCs, like Kenya’s include conditional targets that are contingent upon the provision of international support, such as finance, technology transfer, and capacity building, which can introduce uncertainty in their implementation if no international support is provided.

Kenya's Climate Action Journey: From NDC1 to NDC2

Kenya has been an active participant in the global climate action framework. Its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) highlighted several key sectors such as energy, with a focus on expanding renewable energy sources and improving energy efficiency, agriculture with a focus on climate-smart agriculture practices to enhance food security and reduce emissions from the sector, forestry and land use, with commitments to increase forest cover and promote sustainable land management, and water resources, focusing on enhancing water security in the face of climate change impacts such as drought.

Regarding financing, Kenya's first NDC indicated that the implementation of its climate actions would require significant financial resources, 87% of which was expected to come from international support in the form of climate finance, technology transfer, and capacity building. While the NDC outlined 13% as domestic budgetary allocations, it heavily relied on external funding to achieve its more ambitious targets.

Building upon this foundation, Kenya ratcheted up its second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for the period 2031-2035. This updated NDC places significant emphasis on several key highlights that relate to energy, mining, sustainability, and women.

In the energy sector, the new NDC sets an ambitious target of achieving increased renewable electricity generation in the national grid towards 100% by 2035. This commitment underscores Kenya's leadership in embracing clean energy sources like geothermal, solar, and wind, aiming to decarbonize the power generation and provide affordable and reliable electricity. While mining was not a central focus of the previous NDC in terms of emission reduction targets, the new NDC increasingly recognizes the importance of sustainable practices in the extractives sector. This includes adoption of innovative, inclusive, clean and low carbon technologies in the exploitation and utilization of resources thus minimizing the environmental footprint of mining activities.

Sustainability is a cross-cutting theme in the new NDC. It emphasizes the need to integrate climate action with broader sustainable development objectives, ensuring that economic growth is environmentally sustainable. This includes promoting sustainable land use practices, implementing sustainable waste management systems and fostering green industrialization.

A significant advancement in the new NDC is the integration of gender considerations. The plan recognizes the disproportionate impacts of climate change on women and girls and highlights the crucial role women can play in climate action. It emphasizes the need to promote inclusivity in climate action by advancing meaningful participation and representation of vulnerable populations through capacity building and skills development, technology and innovations as well as targeted inclusive access to climate finance, among other initiatives.

Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) is also a critical component of the new NDC. The plan outlines a framework for tracking the progress of implemented actions, assessing their effectiveness in achieving emission reduction and adaptation goals, and ensuring transparency and accountability. Kenya plans to review and develop M&E Framework to align with this NDC. The monitoring system is designed to be interoperable with existing systems that includes National Integrated Monitoring and Evaluation System (NIMES) and County Integrated Monitoring and Evaluation System (CIMES) thus establishing clear indicators, and regular data collection.

Despite an increase in emission reduction targets from 32% in the Updated First NDC to 35% in this New NDC, and enhanced domestic contribution from 13% to 19% of the NDC cost. The cost implication of implementing the ambitious goals outlined in the new NDC is substantial.  The estimated cost is at USD 22.5 billion for mitigation and USD 17.7 billion for adaptation and addressing loss and damage for the period 2031-2035. Kenya plans to finance a huge portion of this, approximately 81%, through international support, including climate finance, investments, technology transfer, and capacity building, showing a huge dependency on international support.

The transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy as envisioned in the new NDC presents significant opportunities for women. Their involvement in the growing renewable energy sector, for instance, can create new jobs and empower them economically. Additionally, building the capacity of women in climate-smart agriculture can enhance food security and resilience at the household and community levels. Furthermore, sharing knowledge and skills on sustainable resource management can benefit women who are playing a key role in managing natural resources especially in the extractives sector. By mainstreaming gender considerations throughout the implementation of the NDC, Kenya can ensure a more equitable and effective response to the climate crisis.

We invite all stakeholders to share their feedback and actively engage with us in this important dialogue.