Complexity & the Next Best Decision

by Dr. Celina Peerman

In leadership, complexity is everywhere. The decisions we face aren’t always hard because they’re dramatic.

This isn’t the dramatic that is destructive— it’s the dramatic where you feel all the potential consequences and want the best possible outcome. Cue movie music.

They’re hard because they’re layered—with context, personalities, timing, and ripple effects that are difficult to fully predict.

But here’s the thing: complexity doesn’t always require a more complicated response. Sometimes, our best leadership move is to simplify. To focus on what matters most. To name the real issue clearly. And to choose the next best decision—even if we don’t have the full picture yet.

When we postpone key decisions, we don’t avoid consequences—we just delay them.

The Leader’s Role in Complexity

In 29 Owls, I explore how wise decision-making doesn’t mean waiting for certainty. It means learning to read the situation, identify the true problem, and involve the right people.

“Seeking input doesn’t mean surrendering your authority—it means strengthening it.” (Ask. Listen. Grow. – Owl #7)

As leaders, our job is to make decisions that move things forward—even if we have to adjust later. And often, clarity doesn’t come before the decision. It comes because of the decision.

“Some of the best decisions come after the first version doesn’t quite work.” (Shift Happens. So Can You. – Owl #9)

So how do we lead through complexity?

1. Clarify the problem. Before rushing to solve, pause to ask: What are we actually trying to fix?
2. Choose the right voices. Complexity increases when too few—or too many—people weigh in. Ask: Who has insight, stake, or experience that matters here?
3. Simplify the solution. Don’t overbuild. A complex issue doesn’t always need a complex response. Ask: What’s the next best decision we can make right now?

“Break down any complex choices into smaller, actionable parts.” (Clarity in Choices – Owl #1)

Questions for Reflection:

• What’s one area where you’re overcomplicating the issue?
• Who can help you see the situation more clearly—or challenge your assumptions?
• Where might a simple, courageous decision unlock momentum?

Complexity is real. But confusion doesn’t have to be. As leaders, we don’t need perfect foresight—we just need the courage to make progress. One decision at a time.

Except in this case…I just bought a new dehumidifier for my office. It is capable of being attached to my phone so I can adjust settings without having to walk over to it. I’m confused why I need such a feature. Let’s keep it simple when we can, please.

With you in the uncertainty and complexity, Dr. Celina

Learn More

🎙️ Podcast episodes like “Stress Fracture,” “Heavy Weights,” and “To Step In or Not” explore complexity, timing, and responsibility in leadership. Listen at: https://workplacechameleon.buzzsprout.com

📚 Preorder 29 Owls or get a sneak peek at: www.drcelinapeerman.com/bookstore

🎓 For practical tools, check out our on-demand class Making Good Decisions—built for real-world complexity. https://www.leadershiplearningondemand.com