Leading Through Uncertainty: How to Navigate Turbulent Times
Check out the full article here: https://itdworld.com/blog/leadership/leading-through-uncertainty/
Leading a team in today’s world often feels like navigating through a dense fog, where the path ahead is unclear and familiar landmarks have disappeared. In these conditions, a leader’s most important function is not to pretend they have a perfect map – but to serve as a reliable compass for their team.
The New Normal: Leading in an Age of Constant Uncertainty
The current state of pervasive uncertainty (some refer to it as a “permacrisis”) is not caused by a single event – but by the convergence of several global forces:
Rapid AI advancements: Artificial intelligence is reshaping entire industries, automating tasks, and demanding a rapid upskilling of the workforce in uniquely human capabilities like critical thinking and creativity.
Geopolitical & economic instability: Shifting global alliances, trade policies, and economic volatility all contribute to an unpredictable environment for businesses, impacting everything from market access to currency fluctuations.
Supply chain vulnerabilities: The interconnectedness of the global economy means that a disruption in one part of the world – whether from a health crisis, a natural disaster, or a conflict – can cause immediate and far-reaching consequences on supply and operations worldwide.
Evolving work models: The post-pandemic shift toward hybrid work and a greater focus on employee well-being has fundamentally changed the social contract between employers and employees, requiring new approaches to engagement and culture.
These above mentioned macro trends create specific and tangible pressures on organizations, making leadership more challenging than ever before.
Shortened strategic cycles: The traditional five-year strategic plan is becoming increasingly obsolete. As noted by sources like McKinsey & Company, the pace of change now requires organizations to adopt more agile, shorter-term strategic planning cycles to adapt effectively to new information and market shifts.
Increased employee anxiety and burnout: Constant disruption and a lack of predictability take a heavy toll on the workforce. Gallup’s “State of the Global Workplace” reports have consistently shown that employee stress remains at record-high levels. In an uncertain world, employees look to their leaders for a sense of stability and psychological safety, and when that is absent, burnout and disengagement follow.
Decision paralysis: Faced with overwhelming complexity and incomplete information, leaders are likely to fall into a state of “analysis paralysis.” The fear of making the wrong move leads to inaction, causing the organization to stagnate while more agile competitors move forward.
The current reality demands a new kind of leadership – one equipped not with a perfect map, but with a reliable compass.
The Role of Leadership in Uncertain Times
In a stable and predictable environment, a leader’s role typically centers on optimizing processes/ tasks and driving efficiency. However, in the persistent fog of uncertainty, their function undergoes a fundamental transformation – what they need to be concerned about is not just the work, but the meaning and emotion surrounding it.
The core mandate: Managing meaning, not just tasks
When external circumstances are chaotic, a leader’s most crucial job is to create internal clarity, purpose, and psychological safety for their team. Their focus must shift from the “what” to the “how” and the “why”:
How is the team feeling and coping with the pressure?
Why does their work still matter in the face of this new reality?
In this sense, the leader becomes the “Chief Sense-Maker” for their team. They must absorb the complexity and noise of the outside world and translate it into a coherent narrative and a clear set of immediate priorities. Their role is to provide the context that allows their team to feel grounded and focused, even when the broader landscape is shifting.
The two paths: Anxiety amplifier vs. Stabilizing force
In a crisis or a period of high uncertainty, a leader’s emotional state is contagious. They will inevitably become one of two things for their team:
The anxiety amplifier: Such leaders mirror the external chaos. They react emotionally to bad news, forward frantic late-night emails, and constantly shift priorities based on the latest headline.
Example: After a competitor announces a new product, the Anxiety Amplifier calls an emergency meeting, expresses alarm, and demands an immediate, reactive change in strategy, leaving the team feeling panicked and insecure. Their approach breeds confusion and fuels burnout.
The stabilizing force: This leader acts as a “shock absorber” for their team. They acknowledge external challenges calmly, remain deliberate in their response, and project confidence in their team’s ability to navigate the situation.
Example: After the same competitor announcement, the Stabilizing Force calls a team meeting and says, “I’ve seen the announcement, and it’s an interesting move. It doesn’t change our long-term vision, but it’s something we need to analyze carefully. I want us to spend this week analyzing their product and preparing a measured, strategic response. I have full confidence in our ability to handle this.” Their response promotes trust and empowers the team to focus on proactive problem-solving.
In times of uncertainty, a leader’s most critical contribution is not always having the right answer, but creating the psychological and emotional stability that allows their team to find the right answer together.
Strategies for Leading Through Uncertainty
Becoming a “stabilizing force” for your team is not a personality trait one is born with; it is the outcome of a disciplined and intentional approach to leadership. In the face of uncertainty, effective leaders follow a clear playbook that builds upon itself: they first lead themselves, then they lead their team with purpose, and finally, they learn to find the opportunity hidden within the chaos.
1. Lead yourself first: Master your inner game
You cannot project calm and confidence to your team if you do not cultivate it internally. The ability to lead others through uncertainty begins with your own personal resilience and mindset.
Manage your own anxiety: Leaders are not immune to stress, but they must be disciplined about how they process it. This means having your own outlets – whether it’s a mindfulness practice, exercise, or a confidential partnership with a coach or mentor – to manage your own anxiety so you don’t pass it on to your team.
Embrace a growth mindset: It is essential that you view the uncertainty not as a threat to be endured, but as a complex problem to be solved – and an opportunity to learn. Such a mindset shifts the emotional tone from fear to curiosity and empowers you to see possibilities where others only see roadblocks.
Develop personal resilience: Turbulent times are a marathon, not a sprint. To avoid burnout, you need to be disciplined about self-care – by protecting your sleep, maintaining healthy habits, and setting boundaries to ensure you have the energy required to lead effectively over the long term.
Read more: Leading Through Uncertainty Requires Coaching – by Dr. Marcia Reynolds
2. Lead your team with clarity and care
Once your own mindset is grounded, you can focus on cultivating an environment of stability, safety, and purpose for your team.
Communicate transparently and frequently: In a vacuum of information, people will assume the worst. The antidote is to over-communicate – by holding regular, short check-in meetings and being honest about what you know, what you don’t know, and what the plan is to find out more. Transparency builds trust far more effectively than projecting false confidence.
Ensure psychological safety: Create a space where team members feel safe to voice concerns, admit they are struggling, or suggest a risky idea without fear of blame. When people are afraid to speak up, you lose access to the vital on-the-ground information needed to navigate a crisis.
Anchor the team in purpose and short-term wins: When the long-term path is foggy, anchor your team in two things: their stable, long-term purpose (the “why” behind their work) and achievable short-term goals.
Example: A leader might say, “While the market is unpredictable, our mission to serve our customers hasn’t changed. Let’s focus on one thing we can control: this week, our goal is to successfully resolve all high-priority customer tickets. Let’s nail that.”
Empower and trust your people: Uncertainty is a time to increase, not decrease, autonomy. Trust your team members to solve the problems that are directly in front of them. Doing so builds their capability and confidence when they need it most.
3. Look for the opportunity in chaos
This is the most advanced leadership practice: moving from a defensive posture of survival to an offensive one of opportunity. Once the immediate crisis is managed, the leader’s role is to reframe the narrative and challenge the team to find the “silver lining” or the new possibilities created by the disruption.
Example: Instead of only asking, “How do we survive this supply chain disruption?”, a resilient leader asks, “Does this disruption create an opportunity for us to find new, more innovative local suppliers that could make us stronger in the long run?” This shifts the team’s energy from fear toward creative, forward-looking problem-solving.
