Mega Caps Deliver BIG, Doubters Silenced

Meta and Microsoft just reminded everyone why you don’t bet against giants.

Meta up nearly 12% in pre-market after CRUSHING earnings.

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Ad revenue per user climbing, daily active users approaching half the planet’s population, and guidance smashing consensus.

As Microsoft’s Azure continues its growth rampage:

Meanwhile, the usual suspects (short sellers, macro doomers) are back to explaining why “this time is different” and capex is “eating GDP.”

Spoiler: it isn’t, and it’s not.

These companies are monetising AI investment in real-time, not burning cash on moonshots.

Seems like Zuck learnt his metaverse lesson...

The takeaway?

When prime Mike Tyson steps in the ring, don’t bet on the other guy.

Macro – Fed Hawkish Theatre, Data Still King

Powell’s crew stayed put but tweaked the language.

Growth “moderated” in H1, & uncertainty “remains elevated”

Bowman and Waller dissented for cuts, supposedly positioning for future Fed chair ambitions, but Waller's view could be prescient.

Lack of certainty is never an excuse for inaction. Ask any trader.

September rate odds now into coin-flip territory, but NFP tomorrow could flip that script entirely.

GDP data showed “not great, not terrible” when you smooth out the Q1/Q2 noise.

The real story: domestic consumption is holding but fragile. Similar to the labour market.

One weak jobs print and the Fed’s hawkish stance becomes yesterday’s news.

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Sector Flow & Breadth – Tech & AI Royalty, Everything Else Catching Crumbs

Big Tech is eating the world and the index weightings mean shorting indices = betting against unstoppable cash machines.

Meta’s ad spend surge creates ripple effects. Reddit catching an ad sympathy bid.

Amazon ticking higher on cloud optimism.

Energy infrastructure theme still hot & supported by the megacap reports.

Rolls-Royce raised guidance (engines, not just nuclear).

Broadening remains patchy.

XLY versus XLK shows the gap, but rotation happens in fits and starts.

Don’t expect widespread sector love; this is still a lop-sided environment and the leading themes were given more reason to continue leading...

Single Stock Moves – Focus: $META, $MSFT, $AAPL, $HOOD, $CVNA, $AAPL

$META: The beast. 3.48 billion daily users, 22% revenue growth, 38% EPS surge. Ad impressions up 11%, pricing up 9%. This is what happens when you monetise the planet.

$MSFT: Azure AI hitting $75B annual revenue run rate, up 34% YoY. $368 Billion (!) of contracted cloud orders.

Enterprise moats getting deeper, government integration locking in multi-year deals.

$HOOD: Solid earnings but muted reaction. Market seems non-plussed despite strong fundamentals. Perhaps unsurprising given the strong run up.

$CVNA: Greatest comeback story ever?

New all-time highs after near-death experience. Proof that momentum trumps narrative every time.

$AAPL: Tonight’s earnings are make-or-break.

Underperformed YTD, positioning looks ripe for a squeeze if they deliver on AI integration & Services revenues.

Strategy & Positioning – Ride the Giants, Don’t Fight Physics

This isn’t bubble behaviour. It’s companies printing cash and reinvesting it profitably.

The “capex eating GDP” crowd misses the point. One company’s capex is another’s revenue.

Money doesn’t disappear; it flows. Meta and Microsoft aren’t burning capital on metaverse pipe dreams (this time).

They’re building infrastructure that's already paying off.

Keep riding quality, don’t overthink rotation, and remember: betting against these cash machines is expensive masochism.

Culture – Smart Money vs. Clever Twitter

The permanently bearish crowd will always find reasons to hate success.

Professional pessimists love complex charts showing “concentration risk” while missing the forest for the trees.

Meanwhile, Carvana makes new highs from the grave and Rolls-Royce keeps raising guidance.

Systems beat stories.

Price beats predictions.

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