Will the Price of Cubans Rise or Fall? The Power of Scarcity in Action

There’s a classic Seinfeld episode where Kramer tells Jerry he’s ordered “some Cubans.” Jerry assumes he means cigars, but Kramer actually brings over three Cuban men to roll cigars for him. The punchline? No cigars—because at the time, Cuban cigars were illegal in the U.S.

When the U.S. cut ties with Cuba after Fidel Castro took over, Cuban cigars became contraband. And when something becomes banned or hard to get, people want it more. That’s Cialdini’s scarcity principle in action: we place a higher value on things that are rare, restricted, or fleeting.

The Allure of the Hard-to-Get

We’ve seen this play out time and again:

• Coors Beer – Years ago, you could only get it west of the Rockies. I remember my dad and uncles talking about how great it was when they could snag a few cans. Today? None of them drink it.
• Yuengling – Before it was distributed in Ohio, a friend of mine would make pit stops in West Virginia convenience stores just to haul back a case. Now that it’s everywhere, the magic is gone.
• Twinkies – When Hostess announced it was discontinuing them, people cleaned out shelves, stocking up like it was the snack apocalypse.
• Oldsmobile – In 2001, after GM announced the brand would be discontinued, sales exceeded its goal by more than many other cars. People suddenly wanted what they wouldn’t be able to get later.

And then there’s aged Scotch. At a tasting, an expert told me, “I’ll try a glass of 25-year-old Scotch, but I won’t buy the bottle. Older doesn’t always mean better—it’s just rarer. That’s why it costs more.”

Why Scarcity Works So Well

From Dr. Robert Cialdini 's  Influence: Science and Practice:

“If one has enough to survive, an increase in resources will be helpful but a decrease in those same resources could be fatal. Consequently, it would be adaptive to be especially sensitive to the possibility of loss.” — Haselton & Nettle, 2006

In other words, our brains are wired to avoid loss more than they’re motivated by gain. Scarcity flips a switch that says, “If I don’t get it now, I might lose out forever.”

The Cuban Cigar Comeback

If U.S.–Cuba relations thaw in the future, Cuban cigars will likely become easier to get. Here’s my prediction:

1.    Initial Rush – When they first hit U.S. shelves, there will be a buying frenzy. People who’ve romanticized them for decades will pay top dollar just to say they finally got their hands on “the real thing.”

2.   Price Plateau (or Drop) – As supply increases and Cuban cigars become commonplace, they’ll lose some of their mystique. The scarcity will be gone, and so will part of the perceived value.

Will this happen exactly as I’m predicting? Not necessarily—human behavior is rarely 100% predictable. But history tells us that once something moves from rare to routine, demand often fades.

Lessons for Everyday Influence

Whether you’re selling a product, presenting an idea, or even negotiating with your kids, the principle of scarcity can work for you—ethically—if you:

• Highlight genuine limitations – Limited supply, time-bound offers, or unique opportunities grab attention.
• Don’t fake it – Artificial scarcity (like “Only 3 left!” when you have 300) can backfire when people discover the truth.
• Pair scarcity with value – Scarcity by itself can get attention, but it works best when people also understand whythe item, opportunity, or idea is worth pursuing.

If Cuban cigars taught us anything, it’s that the story we tell ourselves about rarity can be just as powerful as the reality.

So, if you’re in the market for Cubans—cigars, that is—be ready. They may not be as pricey in the long run as you think… but early on, you might still pay for the privilege of saying you got them first.

Edited with ChatGPT

Brian Ahearn

Brian Ahearn is the Chief Influence Officer at Influence PEOPLE and a faculty member at the Cialdini Institute.

An author, TEDx speaker, international trainer, coach, and consultant, Brian helps clients apply influence in everyday situations to boost results.

As one of only a dozen Cialdini Method Certified Trainers in the world, Brian was personally trained and endorsed by Robert Cialdini, Ph.D., the most cited living social psychologist on the science of ethical influence.

Brian’s first book, Influence PEOPLE, was named one of the 100 Best Influence Books of All Time by Book Authority. His follow-up, Persuasive Selling for Relationship Driven Insurance Agents, was an Amazon new release bestseller. His latest book, The Influencer: Secrets to Success and Happiness, is a business parable designed to teach you how to use influence at home and the office.

Brian’s LinkedIn courses on persuasive selling and coaching have been viewed by more than 800,000 people around the world. His TEDx Talk on pre-suasion has more than a million views!