The Sibylline Scroll
Sibylline Ltd
Sibylline is a leading strategic risk consultancy, delivering timely, accurate, relevant and actionable intelligence.
May 2025 Newsletter
WELCOME TO OUR NEW CHIEF ANALYST!
We welcome geopolitical strategist and leading expert on Chinese-Western relations Sam Olsen, who has joined us as Chief Analyst and is UK based. Working with our Consulting and Training Team, as well as our Global Intelligence Team and our CEO. Sam will be working on our ambitious predictive risk model and top-end presentations on global topics. He joins with a wealth of experience, having previously served in the military in the Balkans and Iraq. He is the former Head of the Adarga Research Institute, and he previously served as Global Head of IP Protection at Kroll. If you’d like to meet Sam, get in touch and we’ll be delighted to arrange a chat.
REPORT HIGHLIGHTS
India-Pakistan: Imminent Long-Lasting Solution to Tensions is Unlikely, Despite Ceasefire
Over the past few weeks, our team has extensively covered the fast-evolving, high-stakes situation. Our reports establish a baseline factual analysis and forecasting that clients can use for decision-making in an oversaturated environment abundant with disinformation.
Despite some sporadic reports of ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) since 10 May, India and Pakistan have largely refrained withheld launching any significant military actions against each other. Residual disruption will likely be sustained near the international border and in the disputed Kashmir region; militant groups are also likely to try taking advantage of the heightened tensions in the two countries.
These regional updates are part of Sibylline's World Risk Register service. If you would like to discuss a free trial, please get in touch with our team by emailing info@sibylline.co.uk.
Special report: Iran-US: Engagement Increases Likelihood Of Nuclear Deal
Iran and the US have begun negotiations on a possible agreement to limit Tehran’s nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief; this Special Report assesses the likelihood of an agreement and analyses the likely points of contention around and beyond nuclear capabilities (such as Iran’s missile programme). It provides a useful list of triggers, warnings and indicators pertaining to the likely stalling of negotiations. It also outlines the possible US response. This is a must-read for anyone interested in the security and regulatory impact of these developments.
These regional updates are part of Sibylline's World Risk Register service. If you would like to discuss a free trial, please get in touch with our team by emailing info@sibylline.co.uk.
Data Dashboard: Colombia Crime Dashboard – Q4 2024
As organised crime and armed groups gain traction in Colombia, our updated Crime Dashboard will allow you to maintain a data-centred approach to criminal developments in the country.
These regional updates are part of Sibylline's World Risk Register service. If you would like to discuss a free trial, please get in touch with our team by emailing info@sibylline.co.uk.
Situation Update Brief: Canada: Liberal Government Will Likely Sustain Trade Tensions with US
This report focuses on the government’s viability and the impacts Mark Carney's electoral victory will have on Canadian-US relations. Both countries will likely remain at odds as Canada reacts to President Trump’s policies and rhetoric.
These regional updates are part of Sibylline's World Risk Register service. If you would like to discuss a free trial, please get in touch with our team by emailing info@sibylline.co.uk.
ON THE HORIZON
Although India and Pakistan have entered into a ceasefire, the situation at the LoC remains highly volatile. We will continue to monitor the situation as it unfolds; we assess that longer-term tensions will remain a destabilising factor.
Despite diplomatic pressure on Russia and Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire and enter peace talks, we anticipate that any breakthrough in the short term is highly unlikely. As such, we assess that any company seeking to re-enter the Russian market will highly likely face significant challenges due to the ongoing effects of Western sanctions and competition posed by Chinese businesses.
Amid global US tariffs, we will closely monitor China’s efforts to consolidate its economic influence. For instance, on 12 May, Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced that Colombia would sign onto China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). We assess that Chinese investment in Latin America will likely draw elevated scrutiny from the US, increasing compliance risks and diplomatic tensions.
PRODUCTS & SERVICES
New: Sibylline’s Threat and Reputation Risk Monitoring solutions
We have launched a new VSOC dedicated to providing ad hoc support whenever you need it. Whether it’s monitoring social media for violent threats against executives, tracking evolving narratives about your company, preparing travel briefings or undertaking event threat analysis, we’ve got you covered.
Contact your Client Success Manager or email info@sibylline.co.uk to learn more about how we can become your backstop when you need extra capacity, fast.
EVENT HIGHLIGHT
Rafael Saliés attended OSAC’s Latin America Regional Committee (LARC) meeting on 13 April in Miami (Florida, US). The meeting included discussions on a wide range of topics, including China's and Russia’s influence in Latin America, social engineering, travel safety, cryptocurrency, regional presidential elections and security threat scenario exercises.
Layla Guest from the Eurasia Desk attended OSAC Kazakhstan’s Central Asia Chapter Meeting on 18 April in Astana (Kazakhstan). The event focused on the region’s top concerns, including national disaster preparedness, cyber security and the risks involved in conducting business in Afghanistan. Layla co-presented as part of a panel, analysing a recent positive development between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on border demarcation. She also assessed the region’s terrorism and extremism climate. If that’s a topic you’re interested in, let us know and we’ll arrange a call.
UPCOMING EVENTS
In-person Event – 10 June, Tysons Corner (Virginia, US)
SIBYLLINE MID-YEAR FORECAST
Join us as we launch our long-awaited Mid-Year Forecast, a report that brings together the continued expertise of our Global Intelligence Team. Our CEO, Justin Crump, will address the top geopolitical risks shaping the current global landscape, while our regional analysts will lead the 'deeper dive' sections. We will also run a workshop for intelligence and risk management leaders, offering tips and guidance on a variety of topics, from AI integration to elevating your function within your organisation.
THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
Up & Out: From Insight to Authority (Part II)
In this iteration of our Up and Out Series, we explore how intelligence teams can strengthen their approaches to executive-level communication. Not only would this elevate their advisory capacity, but it would also deepen their influence within organisations.
Navigating the Cyber-Geopolitical Nexus
In this article, our Lead Cyber Analyst, Kailyn Johnson, and Associate Director of Training and Consulting, Jack Nott-Bower, highlight how physical threats and geopolitical events can exacerbate cyber and other business risks. They emphasise the importance for firms to dismantle siloed security functions and integrate their security models with technical and geopolitical expertise.
RECENT PODCASTS
IN THE PRESS
On 14 April, Lead Asia-Pacific analyst Aedan Mordecai spoke to CNA about Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Southeast Asia tour at a time of increasing uncertainty in the global trade market. He highlighted that the visit signifies China's trade ties, as well as its self-styled portrayal as the region's most reliable partner. He offered his views on how other Southeast Asian nations will navigate fragmenting China-US relations while ensuring the conditions needed for continued economic growth (Listen to the full interview here).
In light of US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, Principal Middle East and Africa analyst Megan Sutcliffe spoke with BBC Scotland on 13 May. She discussed the significance of the trip, which underscored the importance that Trump places on the US’ relationship with Saudi Arabia and the opportunities he sees in the coming months and years across the region (Listen to the full interview here).
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