TNMT Newsletter #183: Two trends, one paradox
Hi there,
Oh man.
We’re still riding the energy wave from our first in-person TNMT reader meetup two weeks ago.
You know, writing a newsletter to 20,000+ people feels oddly surreal, even after seven years of doing it.
It’s often like shouting into a dark forest, wondering if anyone’s actually listening.
But the other day, something changed:
Real faces, real conversations, real connections.
The forest lit up. The echo shouted back. 🙌
Below is proof.
That’s us playing TNMT-style Jeopardy.
Because, of course, we turn meetups into a knowledge game.
What did you expect, speed networking?
Will we do this again? Most likely.
But showing up in person takes effort.
You’re giving us hours of your evening, and that’s no small ask.
So, before we ask you to do that again, we'd better earn it.
And as you know, our favorite way to earn your time is with fresh research.
Today’s research covers something rare:
Two trends that usually contradict each other… are now rising in sync.
It’s like airlines cutting call center staff and still scoring higher on customer satisfaction.
Wait… what?
Let’s dig in.
Your Lufthansa Innovation Hub Team
Research
The Airline Industry Squeeze: What’s Happening?
There’s an uncommon dynamic currently unfolding in the airline industry – one that's potentially reshaping its competitive landscape but receiving surprisingly little attention.
Two years ago, our research highlighted a sharp decline in the number of new airline startups.
To recap: the annual number of new airlines entering the market dropped from nearly 60 in 2016 to fewer than 10 by 2022.
We took a deep dive into understanding the factors driving this decline and its implications (see our previous analysis).
However, it turns out that this reduced attractiveness for newcomers is only half the story.
A recent IATA analysis reveals another striking trend:
Not only are fewer airlines being founded, but fewer are exiting the market, too.
What this means: Bankruptcies, mergers, and acquisitions have all slowed considerably.
This is interesting because, on the surface, fewer exits are usually a positive sign – a signal of a stable, profitable, and attractive market.
But when we combine both trends, low entry and low exit, it paints a more complex picture.
Disclaimer: The International Air Transport Association (IATA) numbers on airline foundings don’t exactly match our own figures due to differing definitions of what constitutes a "founding." However, the directional insight remains the same.
So, what's really going on here?
How can we reconcile these two opposing forces occurring simultaneously, creating what we might call an airline industry "SQUEEZE"?
Fewer Airline Exits: Stability or Stagnation?
Unsurprisingly, the airline industry itself (represented by IATA) frames the trend as a positive sign of “market stabilization.”
And from an internal industry perspective, that interpretation holds true.
Fewer exits mean fewer bankruptcies, liquidations, or distressed acquisitions.
In an industry known for razor-thin margins, this kind of financial calm is understandably welcome news for incumbents.
But from an outside-in, innovation-focused view, the message is less reassuring.
Yes, fewer failures can indicate greater stability.
But when paired with a record-low number of new entrants, it also signals a market that’s becoming increasingly protected from competition, or even resistant to it.
Fewer new airlines mean less experimentation.
Less pressure to differentiate.
Fewer chances for bold new business models to shake things up.
So while the current environment might be comfortable for existing players, it may also be a warning sign of stagnation.
The innovation flywheel, which is so critical for improving passenger experience, rethinking operational resilience, and reducing the industry’s environmental footprint, risks slowing down.
Is It Really an Airline Squeeze?
But not so fast.
Before pointing the finger at the airline industry too quickly, it’s worth taking a deeper look.
Because what seems like an airline squeeze might actually be something more specific: an aircraft squeeze.
The sharp drop in new airline launches might have less to do with waning interest or competitive exposure and more to do with a very practical problem: There simply aren’t enough aircraft available.
Take Thailand’s Really Cool Airlines (already a strong contender for best airline name of the decade).
Originally slated to launch in 2023 as a next-gen, passenger-focused point-to-point carrier, the airline has now postponed operations to 2025.
The reason? Delays in widebody deliveries from Airbus.
And they’re not alone.
India’s proposed ultra-low-cost carrier Air Kerala and UK-based Global Airlines have faced similar headwinds, as Simple Flying reports. With new and even second-hand aircraft in short supply, launch timelines are slipping across the board.
This isn’t just a technical issue.
It’s literally delaying innovation, arguably the one thing the airline industry needs most.
The Direct Impact on Aviation’s Sustainability Scoreboard
Aircraft delivery delays are already hurting the industry’s sustainability performance.
According to Skailark, Q1 of this year marked the first per-unit increase in CO₂ emissions per available seat kilometer (ASK) in about five years.
The reason?
Airlines are being forced to keep older, less efficient aircraft in service longer than intended, because the newer, more fuel-efficient models just aren’t arriving fast enough.
So while the “airline squeeze” may look like a shift in competitive dynamics, it’s increasingly a supply chain story, and one with long-term implications, if not solved rapidly.
Press Picks
Our Recommended Must Reads
EXPERIENCE TREND – Airbnb’s latest push into locally run experiences and on-demand amenities marks a strategic move to capture more of the $1 trillion travel experience economy.
SOCIAL BOOKING – We've all come across an Instagram Reel of some dreamy island paradise and saved it with the hopes of planning a trip to that very spot one day. With Expedia's new Trip Matching tool, users can now turn that inspirational Reel into an actual booking in no time.
WAIT, WHAT?! – JetBlue has sold its venture capital arm to San Francisco-based aviation investor SKY Leasing for an undisclosed sum, so that it can fully focus on the profitability of its core airline operations.
AIRLINE INVESTMENT – United Airlines has announced an investment in Twelve, an innovative low-carbon fuels company that uses a process similar to photosynthesis to transform carbon dioxide and water into sustainable aviation fuel using renewable energy.
Read more by Bio Energy
AIRLINES X AI – Several airlines have launched new AI-enabled products throughout the past few weeks, reflecting bold moves in AI-powered trip planning and upgrades in how airlines operate behind the scenes.
CORPORATE INNOVATION – The corporate innovation landscape is under rising pressure (see JetBlue news). On one side, economic uncertainty is reaching record highs. On the other side of the paradox, the pressure to innovate has never been greater. How are companies and their innovation teams adapting?
Deal Tracker
Most Recent Investment Deals
– VC –
TEKEVER - the Portugal-based unmanned aerial systems (UAS) developer raised $562.17M in a later stage funding round led by Ventura Capital, with participation from other investors. The funds will be used to expand production.
Routematic - the India-based transportation-as-a-service provider raised $40M in a Series C funding round led by Shift4Good, and Fullerton Fund Management Company. The funds will be used to scale the company's AI-powered operations.
Ravio - the UK-based compensation management platform, working with travel unicorns like Skyscanner and TravelPerk, raised $18.22M in a Series A funding round led by Spark Capital, with participation from other investors. The funds will be used to continue growing a comprehensive dataset with expanded regions and industry coverage, develop advanced market insights, including new hire benchmarks and predictive analytics, and invest in new tools for efficient compensation management.
Hotiday - the Milan-based hotel booking and concierge platform raised $6.18M in an early-stage funding round led by P101 SGR, with participation from other investors. The funds will be used for expansion across Europe, to increase services offered to partner hoteliers, and to expand the team.
Sedna Horeca Private Limited (Sedna HoReCa) - The Indian B2B hospitality operations platform raised $5.84M in an early-stage funding round led by Anicut Capital. The funds will be used to expand into newer markets.
BookitnGo - the US-based travel booking platform raised $5M in Series A funding led by Claritas Capital, with participation from True Global Ventures. The funds will be used to deepen the company's investment in AI-driven travel technology.
BUSUP - the Spain-based bus corporate ride-sharing platform raised $3.2M in a later-stage funding round from True Global Ventures. The funds will be used to accelerate global growth.
Jurny - the US-based rental property management platform, raised $1.48M in an equity crowdfunding round through Wefunder.
Priceagent - the Stockholm-based business pricing strategy platform, working with travel players like Tripadvisor, raised $550K in seed funding from its founders, expert consultants, and notable angel investors, including former Cint executives and Emanuel Lipschütz. The funds will be used to accelerate hiring, expand sales, and the global rollout of its platform.
NapTapGo - the India-based pod hotel chain for affordable accommodation, raised approximately $233K in a pre-seed funding round led by Inflection Point Ventures (IPV).
Darrbak Plus - the Oman-based corporate travel management platform raised an undisclosed amount in a pre-seed funding round from the Oman Investment Authority's "Future Fund". The funds will be used to help the platform to strengthen its digital infrastructure and expand its corporate client base across Oman and the gulf region.
Twelve - the US-based carbon transformation company received an undisclosed investment from United Airlines Ventures’ Sustainable Flight Fund, following an $83M addition to its Series C funding in March 2025.
byFood - the Japan-based restaurant booking platform raised an undisclosed amount in a later-stage funding round from Konnichi Hello.
FIRNAS Private - the UK-based private jet charter services provider raised an undisclosed amount in a later-stage funding round from Plus Venture Capital.
Yihang.AI - the China-based provider of autonomous driving solutions, raised an undisclosed amount of funds in a Series D funding round from Horizon Robotics and Deqing County Industrial Development Investment Fund Management.
– M&A –
JetBlue Ventures - the US corporate capital arm of JetBlue Airways was acquired by Sky Leasing, the aviation investment manager.
Civitfun - the Spain-based guest management platform for hospitality was acquired by HBX Group International, the cloud-based platform for tour operators, for an undisclosed amount.
Finca Mallorca - the German accommodation rentals booking platform was acquired by Holidu, the travel search engine platform, for an undisclosed amount.
Pattern - the US-based insurance platform was acquired by PassportCard, the travel insurance service provider, for an undisclosed amount.
Vacasa - the vacation rental management platform was acquired by Casago, the provider of property management services for landlords and property owners, for an undisclosed amount.
Pollman’s Tours and Safaris Ltd - the Kenya-based tour company was acquired by Africa Travel Investments Ltd, a Europe-based tourism investment firm backed by Aliko Dangote.