Trump’s new strategy to improve the economic numbers

The release of the July jobs report last week threatened the president on two fronts: First, it revealed a slowdown in the number of jobs added to the U.S. economy. But seemingly more unforgivable to Donald Trump was the revisions it offered, calculating that past months had much lower job growth than previous estimates indicated. Trump fired the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics—the originator of the report—and accused her (without evidence) of rigging the numbers to make him look bad.

“Economists had been puzzling over the economy’s resilience despite Trump’s imposition of staggering tariffs,” Jonathan Chait wrote. “Now that we have the revised data, that resilience appears to have largely been a mirage.” That could mean a future that looks a lot like the rising inflation and unemployment of the 1970s. A majority of American adults recently cited the cost of groceries as a major source of stress, according to a new AP-NORC poll. The latest economic reports are “consistent with the stagflationary environment that economists were predicting a few months ago,” Rogé Karma wrote. “Mediocre growth, a weakening labor market, and rising prices.”

Today’s newsletter brings you stories about where the economy is headed:

• “Trump’s New Strategy to Improve the Economic Numbers,” by Jonathan Chait. Classic authoritarian move: When reality doesn’t go your way, deny reality.
• “The Mystery of the Strong Economy Has Finally Been Solved,” by Rogé Karma. Turns out it wasn’t actually that strong.
• “Start Budgeting Now,” by Annie Lowrey. Households will pay an average of $2,400 more for goods this year, thanks to Trump’s policies.
• “Trump’s Only-Okay Economy,” by James Surowiecki. He hasn’t crashed it, but he hasn’t made it great either. That’s a problem.
• “Meddling With the Fed Could Backfire on Trump,” by Rogé Karma. Slashing government interest rates could have the paradoxical effect of raising the interest rates paid in the real world.

— Stephanie Bai, associate editor

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