WHAT WILL BE THE CAMEROON OF 2025?

While other regions of the world have become politically activated, Africa at large, and Cameroon in particular—remains critically behind. I do not claim to be a self-accomplished historian or a clairvoyant, but one can confidently assert that Cameroon is entering the three most crucial years of its modern existence. Never before has the nation faced stakes and realities as defining as those it now confronts. In under two years, Cameroon will hold its third senatorial election following the first in April 2013 and the second in March 2018. Although the Senate was constitutionally created in 1996, it only became operational following Presidential Decree No. 2013/056 of 27 February 2013, signed by President Paul Biya, who alone held the authority to convene the electoral college. Upcoming milestones also include legislative elections originally slated for 2024 but postponed to 2026 and, most critically, the presidential elections of 2025.

In a country where over 35% of the population is aged between 15 and 34—and more than 60% is under 40, Cameroon is still far from transferring political power to Generation Z and millennials. Aside from the 2018 elections and possibly the first multiparty elections of the 1990s, never has there been so much anticipation surrounding upcoming electoral cycles. The current demographic composition of those in power stirs cautious hope that 2025 may mark the end of an era and the dawn of a new one led by leaders more attuned to the realities of the population they serve.

Beyond the electoral calendar, Cameroon faces other pressing realities: an economic downturn, excessive taxation, corruption, embezzlement, and persistent human rights violations. These challenges invite us to reflect on what Cameroon might look like in 2025. This article seeks to offer projections: economic, social, and political—of what lies ahead.

Economic Outlook

Globally, countries have responded to inflation with adaptive measures, Spain and Germany, for instance, have reduced transport costs or introduced free public transport. In Africa, Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo have raised minimum wages. Cameroon, conversely, has taken a path many view as counterproductive, dramatically increasing taxes while offering no sign of future salary adjustments.

The current government has earned a reputation for inconsistent and ineffective policy-making—what many call a "Bafia dance" approach: one step forward, three steps back. Over the last two decades, public trust in state institutions has eroded due to repeated scandals and systemic mismanagement. One of the most infamous examples is the Olembe Stadium project. Announced in 2008, this infrastructure project has consumed over XAF 200 billion yet remains a symbol of unfulfilled promise and financial opacity.

Strategic development plans often appear to exist only on paper. Many Cameroonians joke that theirs is the most developed country “on paper”—a nation of potential, never of practice. Grand promises under initiatives like the Growth and Employment Strategy Paper and the National Development Strategy Document aimed to achieve “emergence by 2035.” However, data from the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economy and Planning, and the National Institute of Statistics clearly show that most targets remain unmet. Large-scale investments promised for infrastructure, rural development, and youth employment have resulted in the proliferation of “white elephant projects”—grand initiatives that never reach completion. The Olembe Stadium, Lom Pangar Dam, and Memve’ele Hydroelectric Station are emblematic of this trend.

In late 2022, the government announced another wave of sectoral reforms, most notably significant tax hikes. Fiscal stamps, for example, increased from XAF 50 in 1980 to XAF 1,500 in 2023—a staggering 30-fold increase. This has contributed to a spike in living costs, stagnating wages, and weakened economic parity. By comparison, Gabon has a minimum monthly wage of XAF 150,000; Côte d’Ivoire, XAF 75,000; and Togo, XAF 52,000, while Cameroon lags behind at roughly XAF 36,200.

Stifling bureaucracy further compounds the problem, making entrepreneurship difficult and weakening economic self-reliance. Consequently, young people who make up the majority of the population are increasingly drawn into illicit activities as a survival strategy. Yet, the public remains shocked by this deviance. Can 2025 bring about change, as more youth begin to awaken to their civic potential?

Social Climate

Socially, Cameroon is experiencing an alarming moral decline. In less than a decade, immorality has permeated nearly every urban and rural area like a cankerworm. Teenage pregnancies are on the rise. Drug use among minors has become rampant. Prostitution is near-institutionalized. School dropout rates show no sign of abating. What explains this growing social decay? Could it be limited economic opportunity, the erosion of hope, the fallout from the Anglophone crisis, or the failure of both education and civic culture?

Between 2018 and 2022, Cameroon spiralled into a full-fledged moral crisis. Drug consumption surged in schools. Prostitution flooded the streets. Corruption became systemic. In 2023, the killing of journalists such as Samuel Wazizi and Martinez Zogo highlighted the state's repressive grip on freedom of expression. These actions directly contravene international human rights guarantees. Meanwhile, unlawful detentions from the Anglophone crisis and persecution of opposition figures continue unabated.

According to government projections from the Growth and Employment Strategy Paper, Cameroonians were supposed to enjoy higher living standards by now. But that vision remains unrealized. Inequitable policies have widened the gap between rich and poor, fueling ethnic tensions and political resentment. Cameroon is increasingly described as a Central Criminal Enterprise (CCE)—a state where corruption is so institutionalized it has become the norm. Traditional values are eroding, and cultural identity is at risk. What does this mean for Cameroon in 2025?

Political Stakes

The central question looming over Cameroon’s political future is this: who will lead the country in 2025? The stakes have never been higher.

Since gaining independence in 1960 and 1961 (for the French- and British-administered territories, respectively), Cameroon has had only two presidents. After the 1972 Foumban Conference transformed the nation from a federation into a unitary state, grievances from English-speaking regions have grown, culminating in the current Anglophone crisis. Multiparty democracy was reintroduced in 1990, and Cameroon held its first competitive elections in 1992—elections fraught with protests and civil unrest.

The 2018 election brought renewed hope. Then aged 85, President Paul Biya had ruled for 36 years. Rumours of dementia and the rise of youthful opposition leaders like Cabral Libii, Maurice Kamto, Akere Muna, and Joshua Osih energized voters. However, the CPDM party secured a suspicious 71.28% of the vote, despite widespread dissatisfaction and historic voter mobilization. Disillusionment followed, and many accepted the result reluctantly, hoping it marked Biya’s final term.

In 2025, Paul Biya will be 92, older than Robert Mugabe when he left office in Zimbabwe. Will Cameroonians vote for a nonagenarian leader in the face of deep economic, social, and political malaise?

Worryingly, power succession in Central Africa increasingly resembles hereditary monarchies. In Gabon, Ali Bongo succeeded his father Omar Bongo. In Chad, Mahamat Déby took over after Idriss Déby’s death. In Equatorial Guinea, Teodoro Obiang’s son now serves as vice president. In Congo-Brazzaville, similar patterns prevail.

Since 2020, voices have emerged urging Frank Biya—Paul Biya’s son—to run for office. Whether these campaigns are grassroots or orchestrated remains unclear. Regardless, the prospect of dynastic succession has sparked outrage among journalists, civil society, and the youth. Many fear it could lead to post-electoral violence. If political reforms are not made, especially in the context of the unresolved Anglophone crisis and mass youth unemployment, the 2025 elections may ignite unrest.

Three Possible Futures

Given these economic, social, and political dynamics, Cameroon stands at a historic crossroads. There are three possible outcomes for 2025:

1. The Opposition Wins: Amid growing internal divisions within the CPDM, the opposition could finally take power.

2. Government Retains Power with Repression: The regime remains in place, enforcing strict military control to stifle dissent.

3. Escalation of Conflict: The regime holds power, but faces widespread protests, increased ethnic tension, and possible civil conflict.

Cameroon has long been considered a haven of peace until the Anglophone crisis erupted in 2016. Can citizens continue to endure rising corruption, human rights abuses, tribalism, and economic inequality? The answer lies in 2025—but much will unfold beforehand.

Conclusion

Cameroon is navigating an uncertain chapter in its history. The next three years will be pivotal, and every citizen must commit to self-discipline, patriotism, and collective responsibility. Inclusive participation in governance and policy-making is essential. Every society must undergo transformational change even if it causes short-term discomfort. But real development demands we let go of selfish ambition, egotism, and the monopolization of public goods.

The period between 2023 and 2025 is Cameroon’s moment to redefine itself. Citizens must speak up, act, and ensure that the legacy left behind is that of a Cameroon that counts, a Cameroon that is respected internationally and self-reliant.

Rendez-vous in 2025—for the verdict, and the beginning of a new chapter.