What Do the Numbers Actually Say?
Aspen Institute Business & Society Program
Aligning Business with the Long-Term Health of Society
Last week, we tracked the run-up to a major milestone in the year’s economic reporting cycle. After a period of dramatic change and uncertainty, would the dust settle and bring clarity? And now that most indicators are in, how do they help predict next steps on everything from jobs to prices to manufacturing and more?
While initial reports led some to speculate that predictions of tariff-related trouble for the economy were overblown, recent numbers are painting a more complicated picture.
What insights can we get from the data, and what can we predict for the economic future? And for leaders of all stripes, what are the dangers of rejecting information you disagree with?
In this week's edition, we help you sift through the numbers.
📣 How are business leaders navigating this complex and challenging world? If you haven’t already, subscribe to the Business & Society Navigator for our weekly analysis of business and society thought leadership!
Spotlight: The Jobs Report Shows AI Is the Only Game in Town
The most recent jobs report has helped clarify a question economists and others have been asking for months: “how could an economy that business leaders otherwise described as difficult be going so well?”
In this new essay, Robinson Meyer dives into the data, and risks, around the shifts in the economy.
“On Friday, the federal government released its newest tranche of job numbers. The headline number was mediocre — the U.S. added a mere 73,000 jobs in July — but the guts of the report were worse. The government revised down its estimate of the May and June reports by a total of 258,000 jobs. With these new numbers in hand, it’s clear that the labor market has essentially stalled out since Liberation Day in April... Outside of AI, things are downright frigid.”
What is the jobs report saying about the underlying economy in general, and the new energy economy in particular?
News Roundup
Confused About the Economy? You’re Not Alone (CNN Business: Alicia Wallace, David Goldman) How can we make sense of the big takeaways from recent economic indicators? (also see Wall Street’s View of a ‘Kevlar Economy’ Has Just Been Shattered, but Red Flags Were Lurking Under the Radar, but for a contrarian view, see Here’s What the Doomsayers Are Getting Wrong About the Job Market, According to a Wall Street Veteran)
These Economists Were Unsurprised by Bombshell Jobs Report (Marketplace: Daniel Ackerman) “We’re getting a much clearer picture of what I think we all kind of feel is happening. And that is complete stagnation.”
Trump’s Former Jobs Data Chief Decries Firing of Successor (Fortune: María Paula Mijares Torres, Catherine Lucey) Should markets care about the firing of BLS head Erika McEntarfer? (also see Republicans Slam Trump’s Firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics Chief and Statement on Commissioner McEntarfer’s Removal)
US Hiring Grows More Faint in Chaotic Economic Environment (AP News: Paul Wiseman, Chris Rugaber) As one economist said, “We’re finally in the eye of the hurricane”: How is the pressure from tariffs and uncertainty beginning to filter down to workers and consumers? (also see Wall Street Strategists Warn of Stock Pullback on Weak Data, High Valuations)
As Trump’s Tariffs Take Shape, Is America Really Winning? (NPR: Rafael Nam) How can tariffs have unintended consequences, and what does the example of electric cars from China suggest about the longer-term implications of the trade war? (also see Trump’s Tariffs Are Bringing In Tens of Billions of Dollars a Month. What’s the Government Doing With All That Money?)
What to Watch as Trump Ratchets Up Global Tariffs (Atlantic Council) “What does this all mean for the US economy? How are India and Brazil, two major US trading partners that did not get a deal, reacting? What comes next?” (and from the Cato Institute, No, Tariffs Are Not Similar to Consumption Taxes Like a VAT)
Also on Our Radar
What else caught our attention this week?
Joe Byrum asks, “What does AI say about you when you’re not in the room?” And who else is listening?
Here’s What to Watch for at This Month’s Global Plastics Treaty Talks
The EPA’s Endangerment Finding Move Leaves Industry Confused
The Drug That Mutes Craving — and Could Crash the Consumption Economy
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Founded in 1998, the Aspen Institute Business & Society Program works to align business decisions and investments with the long-term health of society—and the planet.