Shifting Alliances and Changing Dynamics: Navigating Geopolitics

Despite the dramatic headlines, the markets have been relatively stable this week. As Axios said on Monday, a calm market in the wake of the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, is, well, not what we expected. 

There are many explanations, but at a minimum, the market makers still think that business will see opportunity in this moment, and goods will make it to market. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran offers hope that a global disruption can be avoided, as oil markets seem to have anticipated. Whether they bring peace and prosperity, as Jeff Sonnenfeld and others argue, remains to be seen.

Conventional wisdom is that chaos undermines business confidence and commitments. We have certainly had our share of chaos in the first half of 2025, yet financial markets are at near-record highs. Is market confidence justified given global pressures? How will geopolitical forces play out in the second half of the year and beyond? And what can leaders do to better position their firms and their industries for a world of shifting alliances and changing dynamics?

— Judy Samuelson

In Memorium: Andrew Kassoy

Andrew Kassoy did something rare—he opened up a new way of thinking about the purpose of the corporation. In the founding and through his tenure at B Lab he challenged conventions, inviting all of us to dig deeper into the potential of business, and to bring urgency and clarity to accountability. While a lot of what he advocated for and spoke about with his fellow travelers and co-founders, Jay Coen Gilbert and Bart Houlahan, should be viewed as common sense, Andrew pushed further. His passion for raising the bar on corporate governance inspired many of us. Together, they enabled the sustainability and capitalism reform movement to take root around the world. He led with his values. He used his voice effectively. And he managed this last chapter with grace and dignity.

— Judy Samuelson

News Roundup

1. Why a War in the Middle East Hasn’t Sparked an Oil Crisis (NPR: Camila Domonoske ) “We saw a lot of people … saying, ‘Why isn’t crude reacting more?’” The answer is key to understanding the recent market response. (also see Investors Liked the Peace but They Love War Even More, Asset Markets Are Saying Today)
2. Turmoil and Trade Wars Dominate ‘Summer Davos’ (BBC: Suranjana Tewari ) How are these business leaders coping with “the most complex geopolitical and geo-economic backdrop we’ve seen in decades”?
3. Multinationals at a Crossroads: Adapting to a New Geopolitical Era (McKinsey Quarterly: Bob Sternfels , Shubham Singhal , Cindy Levy , Brooke Weddle , Matt Watters , Zoe Fox ) As friction increases for multinational business, what’s at stake, and what questions do companies need to ask in order to build increasing resilience despite an uncertain and changing geopolitical climate? (also see Why Business Leaders Should Engage With Their Workforce on Geopolitical Issues)
4. The End of Corporate Passivity (I by IMD: Arturo Bris ) “The message to corporate leaders is unambiguous: we can no longer be passive spectators in the geopolitical arena….We can no longer rely solely on politicians to lead the way.” Should business leaders be more actively engaged in ways that focus on the needs of markets, business and society?
5. How Boardrooms Must Confront Geopolitical Risk (Forbes India: Shefali Goradia , Deepti Berera ) “In most companies, geopolitics appears reactively when something goes wrong. That must change.” How can boards prepare for tomorrow’s headlines today?

Also on Our Radar

What else caught our attention this week?

• Dispensable Nation: America in a Post-American World
• The Return of Shameless Shareholder Capitalism
• Trump Can Pull the Plug on the Internet, and Europe Can’t Do Anything About It
• Americans Grow Uneasy About the Economy
• Nevada Is All In on Solar Power

Thanks for reading, forwarding and following. We’ll see you next week!

— The Business & Society Navigators

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Founded in 1998, the Aspen Institute Business & Society Program works to align business decisions and investments with the long-term health of society—and the planet.