What Hasn’t Changed Part 2

I’m writing my next book about The Moment—a time when forces will lay bare the challenges of the energy transition. These posts explore why you, the oil and gas leader, are approaching a once-in-a-generation opportunity to lead.

I spent the two weeks after the November election traveling internationally, and all anyone wanted to talk about was what a Trump presidency means for… everything.

So I drew up lists of what the election means for our clients, for our projects, for you readers, and for our thought leadership at Adamantine.

Then I crossed all those lists out—because what I’m finding most striking is what hasn’t changed. Let’s explore this powerful non-change together, lest you heed the siren call of celebrating total victory and leave all the opportunities provided by The Moment on the table. Read on.

Both of these things are true:

• Republicans won a sweeping victory, cementing the rejection by voters of status quo Democratic politics for at least the next two years.
• This repudiation of status quo Democratic politics does not equal total—nor necessarily enduring—victory for today’s Republican politics nor unconditional support of oil and gas.

The situation

In the current political and civic context, you may find it tempting to think that there is nothing but smooth sailing ahead for oil and gas. Yet, as this newsletter has consistently urged, oil and gas executives need to think boldly about their roles as civic leaders, because thinking boldly about your civic role is good business strategy. And the politics of this moment hasn’t shifted my position on that one inch. Here’s why:

The energy future will go to the innovators. Oil and gas companies have been reinventing themselves for 150 years. Everything about the energy system will continue to evolve, from its sources to the ways consumers use energy to empower their livelihoods and families.

Energy is fundamentally competitive. Successful companies will outcompete and outperform their peers—both those in the same business and those with alternative types, delivery services, and business models.

Climate will remain a core energy-risk factor. Considerations around climate will continue to dominate risk factors that affect energy businesses. These include

• The ways weather events can upend energy availability, reliability, and cost
• Consumer preferences around carbon intensity and other environmental footprint considerations
• Community support for energy projects, including concerns around carbon emissions and other environmental priorities
• Changing demographics, including the rise of the generations who grew up considering climate to be an existential threat to their future
• Societal risk tolerance for carbon emissions

We have passed the “all of the above” tipping point. There is no meaningful constituency arguing for fewer energy options and solutions that prioritize oil and gas or fossils alone. Those who do, do so with a religious-like fervor that cannot be scaled.

When did fighting for the status quo (or the past) work out great? Being a passionate supporter of a pragmatic, inclusive energy evolution makes sense. Arguing to freeze time or the energy system is what failed industries of the past did.

Seize the day

So, interestingly, I’m as surprised as you to conclude that my prescription for energy leadership hasn’t changed. Leading companies should stay the course and prepare to seize the opportunities The Moment will offer. The big-picture list:

• Share aspirations. Why not articulate a vision of the energy future that is broadly compelling to a wide range of stakeholders? It makes sense to continue to build your business aspirations around the broadest group of stakeholders—including those who will want to talk to you post-Moment about how to make a realistic energy transition happen.
• Emphasize innovation. Part of executing on a broadly compelling vision of the energy future is investing in the improvement of that future. Innovation is neither polarized nor political. It’s just what successful businesses and leaders do.
• Craft a middle way. To the extent that society thinks of the oil and gas industry as a winner in the current political environment, be a good winner, a smart winner. (Nobody likes a sore winner!) This is no time to act like a jilted, revenge-seeking lover. Seek opportunities to build common ground and lead comprehensively, considering your sometimes-critical-yet-always-important stakeholders.
• Participate as civic leaders. Craft as broad a leadership agenda as your business allows—chime in on the greatest challenges of our time where your business has an energy-centric solution to offer.

Now what?

Adamantine is taking on limited (two!) engagements in Q1 to conduct diagnostics on the opportunities and risks of The Moment.

• Reach out to see if we have a mutual good fit.
• Please forward this email to your colleagues who embrace industry leadership!
• Are you empathetic to the jilted-lover vibe? Hit that like button below.

On course and full steam ahead,

Tisha