The Era of Evidence-Based Business Process Management by Marlon Dumas
- 1. LEAD the Way The Era of Evidence-Based Business Process Management LEAD the Way Trends in Business Process Management Marlon Dumas University of Tartu, Estonia In collaboration with Wil van der Aalst, Marcello La Rosa and Fabrizio Maggi Charleston, SC, USA 5-6 March 2014
- 4. Are you watching yourself? And your business processes?
- 6. 1. Any process is better than no process 2. A good process is better than a bad process 3. Even a good process can be improved 4. Any good process eventually becomes a bad process – …unless continuously cared for Michael Hammer Back to basics…
- 8. Business Process Intelligence BAM Process Analytics Reports & Dashboards Process Mining Business Process Intelligence (BPI)
- 9. Process Frequency of Order Processing Process Cycle Time of Order Processing Process Cycle Time of Order Processing split up to different Plants ARIS (Software AG) Process Analytics: Dashboards
- 10. 10 Star t Register order Prepare shipment Ship goods (Re)send bill Rece ive payment Contact customer Archive order End Performance dashboards Process model Organization model Social network Event log Slide by Ana Karla Alves de Medeiros Disco, ProM, QPR, Celonis, Aris PPM, Perceptive Reflect Process Mining
- 11. 11 Enter Loan Application Retrieve Applicant Data Compute Installments Approve Simple Application Approve Complex Application Notify Rejection Notify Eligibility CID Task Time Stamp … 13219 Enter Loan Application 2007-11-09 T 11:20:10 - 13219 Retrieve Applicant Data 2007-11-09 T 11:22:15 - 13220 Enter Loan Application 2007-11-09 T 11:22:40 - 13219 Compute Installments 2007-11-09 T 11:22:45 - 13219 Notify Eligibility 2007-11-09 T 11:23:00 - 13219 Approve Simple Application 2007-11-09 T 11:24:30 - 13220 Compute Installements 2007-11-09 T 11:24:35 - … … … … Automated Process Discovery
- 12. Understand your processes as they are • Not as you imagine them Back your hypotheses with evidence • Not only with intuitions and beliefs Quantify the impact of redesign options • Before and after Process Mining: Value Proposition
- 13. Insurance –Suncorp Australia Health –AMC Hospital, The Netherlands –São Sebastião Hospital, Portugal –Chania Hospital, Greece –EHR Workflow Inc., USA Transport –ANA Airports, Portugal Electronics –Phillips, The Netherlands Government, banking, construction … You next? Process Mining: Where is it used?
- 14. Exploratory method –Discover models –Visualize performance over models –Discover and compare variants Question-driven method –Identify a problem in a process –Decompose into questions –Measure and analyze questions How to?
- 15. 1. Plan & Frame the Problem 2. Collect the Data 3. Analyze: Look for Patterns 4. Interpret & Create Insights Create Business Impact Wil van der Aalst. “Process Mining”. Springer, 2012. The L* Method
- 16. 1. Plan and Frame Problem Frame the problem, e.g. as a top-level question or phenomenon –How and why does customer experience with our order-to-cash processes diverge (geographically, product-wise, temporally)? –Why does the process perform poorly (bottlenecks, slow handovers)? –Why do we have frequent defects or performance deviance? Refine problem into: –Sub-questions –Identify success criteria and metrics Identify needed resources, get buy-in, plan remaining phases
- 17. Planning step – Suncorp Case Oftentimes ‘simple’ claims take an unexpectedly long time to complete – To what extent does the cycle time of the claims handling process diverge? – What distinguishes the processing of simple claims completed on-time, and simple claims not completed on time? – What `early predictors’ can be used to determine that a given `simple’ claim will not be completed on time? Team of analysts, relevant managers, IT experts Define what a “simple claim” is. Create awareness of the extent of the problem
- 18. Find relevant data sources –Information systems, SAP, Oracle (Celonis), BPM Systems –Identify process-related entities and their identifiers and map entities to relevant processes in the process architecture Extract traces –Collect records associated to process entities (perhaps from multiple sources) –Group records by process identifier to produce “traces” –Export traces into standard format (XES) Clean –Filter irrelevant events –Combine equivalent events –Filter out traces of infrequent variants if not relevant 2. Collect the data
- 19. 3. Analyze – Find Patterns Discover the real process from the logs Calculate process metrics –Cycle times, waiting times, error rates Explore frequent paths Identify and explore ``deviance’’ Discover “types of cases” –Classify e.g. by performance
- 20. OK OK Good Not Ideal Expected Performance Line Suncorp Case
- 21. Main result Nailed down key activities/patterns associated with slower performance! Simple “timely” claims Simple “slow” claims Discriminative Model Discovery
- 23. There you are!
- 24. Filter –Filter out events (tasks) –Filter out traces Divide by variants (trace clustering) –Many process models rather than one Abstract (zoom-out) –Focus on most frequent tasks or paths –Identify subprocesses and collapse then down Discover rules rather than models Process Mining: Mastering Complexity
- 25. Trace clustering G. Greco et al., Discovering Expressive Process Models by Clustering Log Traces
- 26. Zoom-out: ProM’s Fuzzy Miner
- 27. Bose, Veerbeck & van det Aalst: Discovering Hierarchical Process Models using ProM Extract Subprocesses ProM’s two-phase miner
- 28. Pavlos Delias et al. Clustering Healthcare Processes with a Robust Approach Chania Hospital Use Case
- 29. Pavlos Delias et al. Clustering Healthcare Processes with a Robust Approach Chania Hospital Use Case Most frequent paths
- 30. Pavlos Delias et al. Clustering Healthcare Processes with a Robust Approach Chania Hospital Use Case Trace clustering
- 31. Trace Clustering – General Principle
- 32. www.interactiveinsightsgroup.com Do we really want models… Or do we want understanding?
- 33. Discovering Business Rules Decision rules • Why does something happen at a given point in time? Descriptive (temporal) rules • When and why does something happen? Discriminative rules • When and why does something wrong happen?
- 34. CID Amount Installm Salary Age Len Task 13210 20000 2000 2000 25 1 NR 13220 25000 1200 3500 35 2 NE 13221 9000 450 2500 27 2 NE 13219 8500 750 2000 25 1 ASA 13220 25000 1200 3500 35 2 ACA 13221 9000 450 2500 27 2 ASA … … … … … … … 34 Approve Simple Application Approve Complex Application Notify Rejection Notify Eligibility Decision Miner installment > salary or …. installment ≤ salary or … amount ≤ 10000 or … amount ≥ 10000 or … Discovering Decision Rules
- 35. Discovering Descriptive Rules ProM’s DeclareMiner
- 36. Oh no! Not again!
- 37. What went wrong? Not all rules are interesting What is “interesting”? –Generally not what is frequent (expected) –But what deviates from the expected Example: –Every patient who is diagnosed with condition X undergoes surgery Y But not if the have previously been diagnosed with condition Z
- 38. Interesting Rules – Deviance Mining Something should have “normally” happened but did not happen, why? Something should normally not have happened but it happened, why? Something happens only when things go “well” Something happens only when things go “wrong”
- 39. Maggi et al. Discovering Data-Aware Declarative Process Models from Event Logs Now it’s better…
- 40. Bose and van der Aalst: Discovering signature patterns from event logs. Discriminative Rule Mining
- 41. Take-Home Messages BPM is moving from intuitionistic to evidence-based –Like marketing in the past two decades Convergence of BPM & BI Business Process Intelligence Increasing number of successful case studies Maturing landscape of process mining tools and methods Next steps: –More sophisticated tool support, e.g. automated deviance identification –Predictive monitoring: detect deviance at runtime
- 42. Table of Contents 1. Introduction 2. Process Identification 3. Process Modeling 4. Advanced Process Modeling 5. Process Discovery 6. Qualitative Process Analysis 7. Quantitative Process Analysis 8. Process Redesign 9. Process Automation 10. Process Intelligence http://fundamentals-of-bpm.org
- 43. Task force on process mining (case studies, events, etc.) –http://www.win.tue.nl/ieeetfpm/ Process mining portal and ProM toolset –http://processmining.org Process Mining LinkedIn group –http://www.linkedin.com/groups/Process-Mining-1915049 BPM’2014 Conference, Israel, 8-11 Sept. 2014 –http://bpm2014.haifa.ac.il/ Want to know more?
- 44. Marlon Dumas University of Tartu E-Mail: marlon.dumas@ut.ee For more information: www.fundamentals-of-bpm.org Questions?
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