Book summary of the world in 2020 by the economist
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The document summarizes economic trends and predictions for the year 2020 globally and by country. Key points include: the US election and a global economic slowdown will dominate 2020; tensions are rising between the US and China as the two largest economies compete; and global GDP growth is expected to slow while emerging markets like India and Asian countries will continue to see relatively strong growth compared to Western nations.
Book summary of the world in 2020 by the economist
- 1. The World in 20 20 The Economist
- 2. 2020 will be dominatedby the American election and a global slowdown.
- 3. Two of the worlds great cultures are butting heads. On one side is USA, Britain, Canada, Australia and new Zealand. On the otherside is China. This battle is about two different types of societies trying to get along.
- 4. It is 75 years sincethe bomb fell on Hiroshima.
- 5. The global slowdownis a supply side slowdown since it has ben primarily caused by the tariff war between USA and China. China GDP will grow at 6% in 2020, US by 1.6 and Euro Area by 1.5
- 6. The most visibleeffects of the slowdown so far have been – declining business confidence, global manufacturing slump and tepid inflation.
- 7. There is further global uncertainty in 2020 because of new global officials taking over the world – Christian Lagarde at the ECB, Kritalina at IMF and Andrewbailey at the bank of England
- 8. Thanks to digital mediumand yearly notes, many CEOS are signaling their positionon politics and key issues. Business CEOs are motivatedby idealism, vanity and calculatedself interest. CEO activism has so far been cost free.
- 9. The role of government is to set the rules and the job of companies is to maximize value within these rules. This means delighting customers, investing in profitable innovation and attracting workers. A CEO role is not to stand on a soap box and talk politics.
- 10. In a recession, employee costs get cut first. In the last two recessions in America, wage bill was cut by 6%. If this had not happened, profits would have been 24% lower today. This flexibility is the hallmark of American capitalism.
- 11. Prohibition took effect in 1920, 100 years ago. It was a failure since society did not support it. When police in Denver raided a a bar during prohibition, they found the mayor, the sheriff and the local congressman having a drink!!
- 12. Liquor sales are slowing down, in every western country teenagers are starting to drink later than they used to. This is because theysocialize a lot more with each other onlinerather than in person.
- 13. Alcohol is carcinogenic even in small amounts, but most peopledon’t knowthat. So, tobacco stylelabels are being talkedabout by public health officials. South Korea has a compulsory cancer warning on liquor packs, Ireland passed a law in 2018 but hasn’t followed through.
- 14. Alcohol companies are seeing the writing on the wall. Heineken has alcohol free drinks and theymake up 10% of sales in Netherlands and Germany.
- 15. The top 10 growing markets for alcohol are all emerging economies, Africa and Asia. Alcohol sales in china are declining.
- 16. After28 years of unparalleled growth, Australia had a weak 2019 – a 1.4 % growth. The Australian central bank expects it to be 2.8% in 2020.
- 17. Trump’s tariff war with China is the biggest risk to the American economy overthe next 12 months. China and America , the two largest economies will account for 40 % of the global GDP of $ 90 trillion.
- 18. American corporate debt at 50 % of GDP today has neverbeen higher. The yield on long term government bonds dippedbelowthe rate on short term notes in the middleof 2019. this is a sign of waning investor confidenceand an accurate predictor of a recession.
- 19. America unemployment is at a 50 year low of 4 %.
- 20. Instagram has exploded in popularity since 2016. one reason is peopleare tiring of face book's cluttered interface and cumbersome privacy controls. Stories has changed Instagram, it introduced text to what was a visual medium.
- 21. For the first time in the world, the median age is above 30. USA median age is 38, India is 29, Niger is 15. Countries with older age groups depend more on industrial robots than younger countries.
- 22. Across the world, two types of identity driven movements are increasingly clashing and feeding off each other. On the one hand you have separatist groups who want to break away and then there is the assertive and outraged nationalism.
- 23. Around 100 countries offer CRBI-Citizenship and residenceby Investment. This is a golden visa for a big investment. The pries range from $150,000 in Vanuatu to $ 2.5 Mln for. British Tier 1 Investment visa.
- 24. The Euro soccer tournament ill be played across 12 countries, a rare event. Big tournaments do not really help. Russia spent $ 14 billion on the football world cup. Brazil spent $11 – 14 billionin 2014. One of the stadiums built is now used as a bus depot!
- 25. 100 ball cricket will start in England in 2020. in this format , a bowler will bowl 10 deliveries from one side before the next bowler bowls ten from the other end. The idea is to get young consumers with great experience in a short time. A 100 match will be 150 minutes !
- 26. Top 10 growth GDPs in 2020 Country GDP growth 2020 Guyana 35% Syria 8.9% Bangladesh 7.7% Rwanda 7.5% Ethiopia 7.4% Bhutan 7.3% Myanmar 7 % Nepal 6.9% Ivory Coast 6.8% India 6.7%
- 27. Region GDP growth in 2020 Region/Country GDP growth 2020 North America 1.6 Latin America 1.2 Middleeast and North Africa 2.3 Sub SaharanAfrica 2.5 Western Europe 1.4 Eastern Europe 2.4 Japan 0.4 Asia 5.2 Australasia 2.3
- 28. 2020-Numbers by country Country PopulationMln GDP growth GDP per head$ GDP PPP $ Inflation% Fisc deficit% France 65 1.3 $48,820 $49,690 1.4 (2.5) Germany 83 0.9 $47,680 $56,100 1.5 0.2 Netherlands 17 3.2 $54,260 $60,260 1.8 0.2 Russia 149 1.5 $11,610 $28,580 4.2 1.5 Spain 47 1.9 $31,310 $42,930 1.3 (1.7) Turkey 84 4 $9,850 $30,720 10.1 (3.1) UK 68 1.1 $43,090 $47,890 2.1 (2.4) Bangladesh 165 7.7 $2,080 $5,180 5.1 (4.7) China 1400 6.1 $10,090 $20,930 3.1 (4.5) India 1380 6.7 $2,490 $8,860 4.2 (3.4)
- 29. 2020-Numbers by country Country PopulationMln GDP growth GDP per head$ GDP PPP $ Inflation% Fisc deficit% Indonesia 268 5 $4,700 $15,000 3 (2.1) Japan 127 0.4 $42,560 $45,100 1.4 (2.7) Pakistan 221 2.6 $1,220 $5.910 6.4 (7.8) Philippines 110 5.2 $3,690 $10,050 2.4 (3.3) Thailand 70 2.1 $7,540 $20,600 1.3 (2.6) Canada 38 1.7 $48,210 $50,730 1.9 (1) Mexico 129 1.2 $9,640 $20,520 3.3 (2.9) USA 335 1.6 $66,650 $66,650 1.6 (5) Brazil 212 2 $9,120 $16,960 3.7 (4.9) Egypt 100 5.1 $3,620 $14,050 6.9 (6.1)
- 30. 2020-Numbers by country Country PopulationMln GDP growth GDP per head$ GDP PPP $ Inflation% Fisc deficit% Ethiopia 115 7.4 $830 $2,300 10.7 (3.1) Iran 84 (1.6) $5,600 $18,800 26.5 (5.2) Iraq 42 2.8 $5,520 $17,270 1.3 (1.3) Nigeria 206 2 $2,610 $6,150 11.3 (1.8) Saudi Arabia 35 1.7 $21,880 $57,060 2 (7.3) South Africa 59 1.6 $6,080 $14,170 5.1 (4.8)
- 31. Brent Crude$/barrel Year $ 2016 42 2017 56 2018 70 2019 66 2020 63
- 32. Health care spending $ per person Country $ USA 11,190 Germany 5,940 France 5,070 Japan 4,590 Canada 5,170 Britain 4,250 Italy $3,220 Russia 650
- 33. Retail sales Growth % in 2020 Country % Vietnam 6 Chile 5.5 Indonesia 4.2 Malaysia 4.4 India 3.8 Philippines 3.8 USA 1.8 Russia 1.7