Algorithm Lawyers – How & How Soon?
Download as PPTX, PDF1 like58 views
The talk discusses the limitations of artificial intelligence in law, emphasizing that current AI is primarily semi-supervised learning and fails to pass the Turing test. It highlights the trend toward automation in legal services, predicting that what can be automated will be, significantly reducing revenues for traditional firms. The speaker advocates for adapting to these changes through specialization, technology development, and effective marketing strategies.
Algorithm Lawyers – How & How Soon?
- 1. International Intellectual Property Society New York 17 May 2018
- 2. Take-aways that you can reasonably expect from this talk • How to realize your own position in the technical development which we are going through • How to not be like one of the many breweries in my Bavarian home- town that went slowly out of business during the last century
- 3. There is no and will be no Artificial Intelligence in Law „Artificial Intelligence“ is a synonym of „Machine Intelligence“ „Intelligence“ is • ability to perceive or infer information, and • to retain it as knowledge to be applied, namely • towards behaviors within an environment or context, and • the behavior must be adaptive. The Wisdom Literature (> 3,000 years old) discerns between • Knowledge – the facts (Pro 9:10, Pro 18:15) • Understanding – ability to translate meaning from the facts (Psa 119:130, Pro 3:5-7, 18:2) • Wisdom – knowing what to do next, given an understanding of the facts and circumstances (Ecc 8:1)
- 4. „Adaptive“ means that There is no Intelligence without Learning Learning is: • Unsupervised Learning, • Semi-supervised Learning, or • Supervised Learning Unsupervised Learning only in very confined environments: chess, simulations of real systems, etc. Artificial Intelligence today in the area of law (and medicine and banking and …) is at most semi-supervised learning. Engineers call this „Automation“
- 5. What Automation Does: • IBM Watson helps doctors in diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human doctors. • Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better and faster than humans.
- 6. IBM Watson is (only) a powerful search engine Until today, IBM Watson does not pass the Turing Test: to fully behave like a human. Example: in 2014, it could not understand the following sentence: “After the holidays, the scale becomes my enemy” Defense replied: „But type this sentence into Bing and Google, and also several references to weight come up on the first page„ Fact: no computer has ever passed the Turing Test. My prediction is: no computer will ever pass the Turing Test.
- 7. The Turing Test sets the Standard for AI in the Legal Profession Legal Malpractice = breach of Legal Duty of Care The injured party must show that • the attorney's acts were not merely the result of poor strategy, but that • they were the result of errors that no reasonably prudent attorney would make.
- 8. The good news: there will always be Lawyers BUT … What can be automated will be automated. In a first step, 80% of the result will be achieved by automating 20% of the effort. A good automatic solution will not only have supervised learning but also provide for semi-supervised learning. Example: insurance claims (see next slide)
- 9. Semi-supervised learning: insurance claims • Zurich Insurance Group Ltd. has deployed artificial intelligence in deciding personal injury claims based on medical reports • processing time is cut from an hour to just seconds: "We recently introduced AI claims handling ... and saved 40,000 work hours, while speeding up the claim processing time to five seconds" • "Accuracy has improved. Because it’s (supervised/semi-supervised) machine learning, every new claim leads to further development and improvements" • Lemonade promises renters and homeowners new insurances in as little as 90 seconds, and payment of claims in three minutes with the help of artificial intelligence bots
- 10. The Automation is and will be big in areas where liability and/or peace of conscience is not an issue • let the target of the legal services make the mistake himself: “file your own trademark application” • administrative law: EUIPO aims at “60% automation” • etc. Where else?
- 11. Let’s Do Some History
- 12. A typical domestic case in the Old Times client employee domestic IP office domestic law firm order action result report report order
- 13. A typical foreign case in the Old Times client foreign associate law firm foreign IP office domestic law firm order action result report order report
- 14. This has changed Confront the Brutal Facts Jim Collins – Good to Great
- 15. Only 13 Years Later!
- 16. 1986: office computers come in client domestic IP office domestic law firm order action result report
- 17. 1986: office computers come in client domestic IP office order action result report - Copy machines - Word processors - Computer dictation systems - Time docketing systems - Email - PDF format - Paperless files - Internet databases (prior art, IP registers, case law) - Online filing - Online filing, with credit card payments office computers domestic law firm result: 80% less revenues from this part of the business
- 18. 1996: renewal fee providers come in client foreign associate law firm foreign IP office domestic law firm order action result report order report office computers domestic IP office action result
- 19. 1996: renewal fee providers come in client foreign associate law firm foreign IP office domestic law firm office computers domestic IP office
- 20. 1996: renewal fee providers come in client domestic IP office foreign IP office foreign associate law firm office computers domestic law firm IP service provider
- 21. 1996: renewal fee providers come in client domestic IP office foreign IP office IP service provider order action result report action result domestic law firm foreign associate law firm office computers result: 80% less revenues from this part of the business
- 22. 2010: Freelancers start to work directly for our clients client freelancer IP service provider office computers domestic IP office domestic law firm
- 23. 2010: Freelancers start to work directly for our clients client freelancer IP service provider office computers domestic IP office domestic law firm
- 24. 2010: Freelancers start to work directly for our clients client freelancer IP service provider office computers report order domestic IP office action result domestic law firm result: 80% less revenues from this part of the business
- 25. 2011: boilerplate contract service providers come in freelancer IP service provider Boilerplate contract service provider office computers domestic law firm client
- 26. 2011: boilerplate contract service providers come in client freelancer IP service provider Boilerplate contract service provider template contract order office computers domestic law firm Third Party contract result: 80% less revenues from this part of the business
- 27. This is today‘s situation freelancer IP service provider boilerplate service provider office computers domestic law firm
- 28. The very near future freelancer IP service provider boilerplate service provider office computers Wrong reaction: domestic law firm PCT National Phase initiated via WIPO Robot Patent Drafting Robot Translations prediction: 80% less revenues from this part of the business
- 29. The Hedgehog Concept What you are passionate about What drives your economic engine What you can be best in the World at Right reaction: specialize here Jim Collins – Good to Great
- 30. Take-Away: Where is your „Hedgehog“ triangle? freelancer IP service provider boilerplate service provider office computers domestic law firm PCT National Phase initiated via WIPO Robot Patent Drafting Robot Translations or is it elsewhere?
- 31. Send Certain Clients Away A Culture of Discipline Jim Collins – Good to Great
- 32. Take-away: learn to send clients away that do not match with your new business focus
- 33. Create Your Own Software Technology Accelerators Jim Collins – Good to Great
- 34. Exponential Development requires Special Actions • Don’t try to be ahead of the curve. Jump from the current curve to a steeper curve • Example: ice-making, bottling machines and breweries in my home town in Bavaria
- 35. Take-away: learn how to create your own technology accelerator.
- 36. My Own Areas for Automation in IP • staff training by online courses • reading texts aloud for proofreading purposes • collating a backward/forward prior art search result • arranging appointments with clients and associates • drafting figure descriptions for patent applications • assessing absolute and relative grounds for refusing new trademark applications • sending out reminders to upcoming deadlines or events and collecting confirmations of receipt • screening new clients with a chatbot (for directing them to an appropriate online course before a first meeting)
- 37. Last and most important take away for today Develop a marketing & sales team in your firm. Doing all what I have shown you before does not help if nobody knows that it exists.
- 38. This is a lot of work. If works for me then it may also work for you.