ST CATHARINE’S COLLEGE,
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY,
ECONOMICS SOCIETY ANNUAL LECTURE 2012
    Mo Tanweer; Head of Economics; Oundle School;
    Mohammed.Tanweer@cantab.net
China's Bubble Cambridge Lecture MT
China‟s growth miracle
                        The World‟s Workshop



                  WTO
                               Socialism with
                           Chinese characteristics

                                                     Xiaping‟s market
                                                     oriented economic
                                                          reforms




 Great Leap Forward
Quarterly growth rates…
     Average 9.5 % GDP growth rate annually since 1978

                 600+ million out of poverty…
Overtaking them all…
              “Since 2001, China‟s GDP has risen fourfold…
           Economically speaking, China has created three new
                  Chinas in the past decade” Jim O’Neill
Growth splutters…?



                     2012 target: 7.5%
Economy is too reliant on investment as a driver

                            Consumption has underperformed as a driver


                                 Export-led growth has been important too




                Re-balancing required
“China has made remarkable achievements…. But there
     is a lack of adequate balance, coordination or
sustainability in our development” (Premier Wen, 2011)
China‟s 2008 Stimulus Package
                           $586 bn (4 trillion yuan) fiscal stimulus




Fixed investment growth accounted for
over 90% of the growth in the Chinese
  economy in first 9 months of 2009
Infrastructure boom Easy money
          Large pool of domestic savings;
2008-09: A new era and a new pace of
infrastructure development…



35 airports in one year




   In 2010, 175 airports
Infrastructure boom
                $228bn – 2011-2015 in aviation
High speed rail links…
Sustainability…




                               2011: 70 new railways
      Debts and ticket sales     2012: 9 new ones
Exporting HSR…
Build it… but will they come?
No such thing as a free lunch…
“growing resource and environmental constraints are
     hindering growth.” Premier Wen Jiabao,
                      2011
The Minister for the Environment: “In China’s thousands of years of
civilization, the conflict between humankind and nature has never been as
  serious as it is today…. The depletion, deterioration and exhaustion of
    resources and the worsening ecological environment have become
bottlenecks and grave impediments to economic and social development.”




                                                       <1% clean air


                                        20 of the 30 most polluted cities



                                      2/3 cities breach air quality targets
Re-prioritising targets…
 “We absolutely cannot again sacrifice the environment as the cost for
  high-speed growth, to have blind development, and in that way to
create over-capacity and put greater pressure on the environment and
       resources. That economic development is unsustainable.”
                          Premier Wen 2011




          “to raise the quality and the efficiency of growth”
CO2 emissions rise…
          Doubling in CO2
          emissions since
               2003
2007-08 overtakes
USA as biggest CO2
     emitter
China's Bubble Cambridge Lecture MT
China's Bubble Cambridge Lecture MT
Sustainability…
                                              Cap-and-trade?


                                   Since 2009, majority of cleantech
                                                IPOs
     2006, 2 companies from China in the
    global list of top 10 solar cell producers




                           In 2010, there were 6 of global top 10
2009: 50% increase in
                           2010: $30 billion in low-cost loans to
    green energy
                           the top 5 solar manufacturers
Energy consumption…
                          China surpasses the
                          USA as the world‟s
                              top energy
                               consumer




    China has accounted for 75% of the
    global increase in coal consumption;
       and 60% of increase in oil use
China‟s Primary Energy Consumption
                 China‟s energy demand has
                 surged over 250% vs world
                      average of 20%

 Coal-driven economy: 70%
 (vs Brazil: 6%; India: 51%)
Ratio of Domestic Coal Production to
Consumption, 2008
                    World‟s largest consumer of coal

                     World‟s largest producer of coal


                    Currently self-sufficient in coal; but for
                                   how long?
Chinese steel consumption is greater than
US+EU+Japan+India combined

             2000-10: 600m tonnes extra consumed – China: 85%


                           1980 – 5%; 2008 – 40%
Mln tonnes




                             Largest exporter of steel
Soya beans: 1995 - 2010
Already a large commodity consumer
                                Corn: 2003 - 2010




                                  World‟s largest
                            consumer/producer of cotton


                         World‟s second largest consumer
                                     of sugar

  World‟s second largest consumer
              of wheat
Food security is a top priority…
Supply-side constraints…

   Second largest consumer of oil


Fifth largest producer; Oil equity;
Hydro power; Solar power; Coal


                                   Oil: imported crude oil
                               dependence: 1999: 19%... 2010:
                                            55%
Efficiency gains…


                     Energy intensity of a consumption
                    driven economy is much less than an
                           investment driven one




                2005-2020: Reduce emissions per
                      unit of GDP by 45%
The largest migration in history




                  Shenzhen – 1978-2010
Lewis Turning Point?



                  1978: „One Child Policy‟
China‟s population pyramid
Dependency ratio bottomed out…
                „Demographic dividend‟
                                                       Inflection point

                                    2005: „Ageing society‟




Source: UN World Population Prospects          A longer term concern…
         Help with rebalancing economy
Working age population vs active
population In recent years, economic growth has
                   not been driven by working age
                          population growth

              Productivity growth
Human capital


                                        6.3 mln college
                                           grads p.a




                Structural adjustment issue; not a
                      labour constraint issue
It is RULC‟s that matter…
                     Productivity improvements
Capital deepening



                    Re-allocation of labour




                    Healthcare improvements
Urban-rural ratio still low…




VS US/Japan/S Korea
Further productivity gains remain…



                             Hukuo




              Overemployment in agriculture:
                       10%:40%
„Go West‟ programmes
$325 bn in infrastructure focused
      on Western region




                    West is an important growth
                             opportunity


             The west's share of GDP only
                   17.8% (2008)



    Special Economic Zones (XHTIZ)
Chongqing‟s success story…

     2020 aim: 640 billion yuan ($100
     billion) sized economy
Urban:Rural income ratio
Rising Gini…
                       2009:
       Shanghai:7.6x richer p/c than Guizhou
Inflation concerns…
   Top priority in 2011-15 Five Year Plan: controlling inflation



          Inflation target of 4%

                                   MNCs told to scrap price hikes




                Monetary tightening
Minimum wages rise…
                                        2011: Migrant minimum wages
                                                  rose 21%




Source: Roubini Group Economics
                                  2006-10: Average minimum wage
                                        increase: 12.5% p.a
But: Wage growth is key
                                   to execute the blueprint of
                                     the 12th Five Year Plan
                                        rebalancing and
                                          sustainability


                                     Target of min.wage to
Government target rise of13% p.a    be 40% of local salaries
            to 2015                         by 2015
China's Bubble Cambridge Lecture MT
Infrastructure, external
economies of scale, logistics
1990s China vs the „modern China‟…




      No longer purely importing
  sophisticated inputs and assembling
                                           <10% is
 them into consumer goods for the West   assembly-line
                                           business
Shift towards higher-value add…




       China is now a major exporter
       of higher-value added products
          Source: US Comtrade, The
            Beijing Axis Analysis
                              „Magic Seven‟ industries to
                             become 15% of GDP by 2020

                            R&D expenditure to rise to 2.5%
                                  of GDP by 2015
Export-led growth…
                          China‟s X
                     actually fell 17%
                         in 2009…

                      …but it still
                        overtook
                     Germany as the
                     world‟s largest
                        exporter
Currency wars…
Current account balances…




 help with inflationary
  pressure and with       Currency wars/WTO
      rebalancing
Yuan has appreciated
25% in last 6 years...
Are exports really doomed?
The cost of intervention…




       Excess liquidity: Growth in M2
Asset bubbles…


        Has the stock
        market bubble
           burst?
Shanghai 2003-10: 150%
         Real estate
       construction is
        10% of GDP

      1998 housing
     stock privatised

                     2005-09:
Beijing: 27:1      Average house
price:income        price tripled
     ratio
Asset bubbles…
                    Tipping point
                      in 2011?




    Average price p.s.m halved
    since 2009 peak




           Local govts revenue in trouble
% of cities where housing prices are
   down month on month


                 Negative multipliers…



                             Govt policies


Source: SocGen   Chinese housing market is not the
                 same as the U.S housing market
Growing indebtedness…
                            1998-05:
                          $500bn written
                               off
      Non-
   performing
     loans




           Chinese banks have lent an
        astounding $8 trillion since 2008
Local govt debt




    http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012-
     02/20/c_131420191.htm
The future of financial markets…




    10-year timetable for easing capital
   restrictions; liberalising interest rates
Reminiscent of Japan…
The Middle Income Trap…
GDP/c Japan vs China



      GBR: INSERT GRAPH OF
      CHINA’S GDP per capita
            levels… vs
       USA/UK/Japan/Brazil
Hard or soft landing…?

 Supply-side    Rostow‟s Drive to
                 Maturity phase     Inequality
  constraints
Rebalancing Fiscal restraints     World Bank
                      Currency            2030
Asset bubbles
                       reform    Inflation/Deflation
      Social issues
                                   Labour costs
Socialism with         Environment
   capitalist       th 5-Year Plan
                                   Growth of the
characteristics? 12                middle class
ST CATHARINE’S COLLEGE,
CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY,
ECONOMICS SOCIETY ANNUAL LECTURE 2012
    Mo Tanweer; Head of Economics; Oundle School;
    Mohammed.Tanweer@cantab.net

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China's Bubble Cambridge Lecture MT

  • 1. ST CATHARINE’S COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY, ECONOMICS SOCIETY ANNUAL LECTURE 2012 Mo Tanweer; Head of Economics; Oundle School; Mohammed.Tanweer@cantab.net
  • 3. China‟s growth miracle The World‟s Workshop WTO Socialism with Chinese characteristics Xiaping‟s market oriented economic reforms Great Leap Forward
  • 4. Quarterly growth rates… Average 9.5 % GDP growth rate annually since 1978 600+ million out of poverty…
  • 5. Overtaking them all… “Since 2001, China‟s GDP has risen fourfold… Economically speaking, China has created three new Chinas in the past decade” Jim O’Neill
  • 6. Growth splutters…? 2012 target: 7.5%
  • 7. Economy is too reliant on investment as a driver Consumption has underperformed as a driver Export-led growth has been important too Re-balancing required “China has made remarkable achievements…. But there is a lack of adequate balance, coordination or sustainability in our development” (Premier Wen, 2011)
  • 8. China‟s 2008 Stimulus Package $586 bn (4 trillion yuan) fiscal stimulus Fixed investment growth accounted for over 90% of the growth in the Chinese economy in first 9 months of 2009
  • 9. Infrastructure boom Easy money Large pool of domestic savings;
  • 10. 2008-09: A new era and a new pace of infrastructure development… 35 airports in one year In 2010, 175 airports
  • 11. Infrastructure boom $228bn – 2011-2015 in aviation
  • 12. High speed rail links…
  • 13. Sustainability… 2011: 70 new railways Debts and ticket sales 2012: 9 new ones
  • 15. Build it… but will they come?
  • 16. No such thing as a free lunch… “growing resource and environmental constraints are hindering growth.” Premier Wen Jiabao, 2011
  • 17. The Minister for the Environment: “In China’s thousands of years of civilization, the conflict between humankind and nature has never been as serious as it is today…. The depletion, deterioration and exhaustion of resources and the worsening ecological environment have become bottlenecks and grave impediments to economic and social development.” <1% clean air 20 of the 30 most polluted cities 2/3 cities breach air quality targets
  • 18. Re-prioritising targets… “We absolutely cannot again sacrifice the environment as the cost for high-speed growth, to have blind development, and in that way to create over-capacity and put greater pressure on the environment and resources. That economic development is unsustainable.” Premier Wen 2011 “to raise the quality and the efficiency of growth”
  • 19. CO2 emissions rise… Doubling in CO2 emissions since 2003
  • 20. 2007-08 overtakes USA as biggest CO2 emitter
  • 23. Sustainability… Cap-and-trade? Since 2009, majority of cleantech IPOs 2006, 2 companies from China in the global list of top 10 solar cell producers In 2010, there were 6 of global top 10 2009: 50% increase in 2010: $30 billion in low-cost loans to green energy the top 5 solar manufacturers
  • 24. Energy consumption… China surpasses the USA as the world‟s top energy consumer China has accounted for 75% of the global increase in coal consumption; and 60% of increase in oil use
  • 25. China‟s Primary Energy Consumption China‟s energy demand has surged over 250% vs world average of 20% Coal-driven economy: 70% (vs Brazil: 6%; India: 51%)
  • 26. Ratio of Domestic Coal Production to Consumption, 2008 World‟s largest consumer of coal World‟s largest producer of coal Currently self-sufficient in coal; but for how long?
  • 27. Chinese steel consumption is greater than US+EU+Japan+India combined 2000-10: 600m tonnes extra consumed – China: 85% 1980 – 5%; 2008 – 40% Mln tonnes Largest exporter of steel
  • 28. Soya beans: 1995 - 2010 Already a large commodity consumer Corn: 2003 - 2010 World‟s largest consumer/producer of cotton World‟s second largest consumer of sugar World‟s second largest consumer of wheat
  • 29. Food security is a top priority…
  • 30. Supply-side constraints… Second largest consumer of oil Fifth largest producer; Oil equity; Hydro power; Solar power; Coal Oil: imported crude oil dependence: 1999: 19%... 2010: 55%
  • 31. Efficiency gains… Energy intensity of a consumption driven economy is much less than an investment driven one 2005-2020: Reduce emissions per unit of GDP by 45%
  • 32. The largest migration in history Shenzhen – 1978-2010
  • 33. Lewis Turning Point? 1978: „One Child Policy‟
  • 35. Dependency ratio bottomed out… „Demographic dividend‟ Inflection point 2005: „Ageing society‟ Source: UN World Population Prospects A longer term concern… Help with rebalancing economy
  • 36. Working age population vs active population In recent years, economic growth has not been driven by working age population growth Productivity growth
  • 37. Human capital 6.3 mln college grads p.a Structural adjustment issue; not a labour constraint issue
  • 38. It is RULC‟s that matter… Productivity improvements Capital deepening Re-allocation of labour Healthcare improvements
  • 39. Urban-rural ratio still low… VS US/Japan/S Korea
  • 40. Further productivity gains remain… Hukuo Overemployment in agriculture: 10%:40%
  • 41. „Go West‟ programmes $325 bn in infrastructure focused on Western region West is an important growth opportunity The west's share of GDP only 17.8% (2008) Special Economic Zones (XHTIZ)
  • 42. Chongqing‟s success story… 2020 aim: 640 billion yuan ($100 billion) sized economy
  • 44. Rising Gini… 2009: Shanghai:7.6x richer p/c than Guizhou
  • 45. Inflation concerns… Top priority in 2011-15 Five Year Plan: controlling inflation Inflation target of 4% MNCs told to scrap price hikes Monetary tightening
  • 46. Minimum wages rise… 2011: Migrant minimum wages rose 21% Source: Roubini Group Economics 2006-10: Average minimum wage increase: 12.5% p.a
  • 47. But: Wage growth is key to execute the blueprint of the 12th Five Year Plan rebalancing and sustainability Target of min.wage to Government target rise of13% p.a be 40% of local salaries to 2015 by 2015
  • 50. 1990s China vs the „modern China‟… No longer purely importing sophisticated inputs and assembling <10% is them into consumer goods for the West assembly-line business
  • 51. Shift towards higher-value add… China is now a major exporter of higher-value added products Source: US Comtrade, The Beijing Axis Analysis „Magic Seven‟ industries to become 15% of GDP by 2020 R&D expenditure to rise to 2.5% of GDP by 2015
  • 52. Export-led growth… China‟s X actually fell 17% in 2009… …but it still overtook Germany as the world‟s largest exporter
  • 54. Current account balances… help with inflationary pressure and with Currency wars/WTO rebalancing
  • 55. Yuan has appreciated 25% in last 6 years...
  • 57. The cost of intervention… Excess liquidity: Growth in M2
  • 58. Asset bubbles… Has the stock market bubble burst?
  • 59. Shanghai 2003-10: 150% Real estate construction is 10% of GDP 1998 housing stock privatised 2005-09: Beijing: 27:1 Average house price:income price tripled ratio
  • 60. Asset bubbles… Tipping point in 2011? Average price p.s.m halved since 2009 peak Local govts revenue in trouble
  • 61. % of cities where housing prices are down month on month Negative multipliers… Govt policies Source: SocGen Chinese housing market is not the same as the U.S housing market
  • 62. Growing indebtedness… 1998-05: $500bn written off Non- performing loans Chinese banks have lent an astounding $8 trillion since 2008
  • 63. Local govt debt  http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/china/2012- 02/20/c_131420191.htm
  • 64. The future of financial markets… 10-year timetable for easing capital restrictions; liberalising interest rates
  • 66. The Middle Income Trap…
  • 67. GDP/c Japan vs China GBR: INSERT GRAPH OF CHINA’S GDP per capita levels… vs USA/UK/Japan/Brazil
  • 68. Hard or soft landing…? Supply-side Rostow‟s Drive to Maturity phase Inequality constraints Rebalancing Fiscal restraints World Bank Currency 2030 Asset bubbles reform Inflation/Deflation Social issues Labour costs Socialism with Environment capitalist th 5-Year Plan Growth of the characteristics? 12 middle class
  • 69. ST CATHARINE’S COLLEGE, CAMBRIDGE UNIVERSITY, ECONOMICS SOCIETY ANNUAL LECTURE 2012 Mo Tanweer; Head of Economics; Oundle School; Mohammed.Tanweer@cantab.net