SE4ALL 02 Global Tracking Framework
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The document summarizes progress toward sustainable energy goals in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) based on the Global Tracking Framework 2015. It finds that LAC has near universal electricity access but slower progress on clean cooking. Energy intensity is relatively low but improvement rates are mixed. LAC has high shares of renewable energy but increases are limited as many countries are near capacity. The report outlines regional trends, country data, and targets to double energy efficiency and renewable energy. It also outlines plans to involve regional groups in the 2017 Global Tracking Framework report.
SE4ALL 02 Global Tracking Framework
- 1. PROGRESS TOWARD SUSTAINABLE ENERGY Global Tracking Framework 2015
- 2. What is the Global Tracking Framework?
- 3. Global Tracking Framework measures progress towards SE4AAll Goals Title of Presentation 3
- 5. SE4All 2030 Goals GTF 2015 Primary Indicators ENERGY ACCESS ENERGY EFFICIENCY RENEWABLE ENERGY 100% access to electricity and clean cooking Double rate of improvement in EE Double share of RE in energy mix Percentage of population with electricity connection / using non-solid fuels Percentage of total final energy consumption from renewable sources Compound annual growth rate of primary energy supply / GDP in PPP Additional analysis Disaggregations by location, sector, fuels; decomposition analysis for EE; investment flows, data requirements
- 6. Ideal Metrics Workable Solution Available Data Agenda for Improvement Global Tracking Framework takes a pragmatic approach balancing ideal metrics and data availability
- 7. Diverse technologies for service delivery Variable quality of electricity supply Illegal and secondary connections Community and productive uses of electricity Percentage of population with an electricity connection based on surveys A workable solution for tracking electrification
- 8. But we are working towards a better solution: the multi-tier framework (MTF)
- 9. HouseholdSurveys (DHS,MIC,LSMS)and Censuses WHO Cooking Database Energy Access WB Electrification Database NationalEnergy Balances Energy Efficiency IEA Energy Balances UN Energy Balances WDI , REN 21, IRENA, BNEF Renewable Energy IndicatorData Source Country Coverage (% of global population) 212 Countries (100%) 193 Countries (99%) 181 Countries (98%) Electrification Cooking Fuels NOTE: IEA = International Energy Agency; UN = United Nations; REN 21 = Renewable Energy Network for the 21st Century; IRENA = International Renewable Energy Agency; BNEF = Bloomberg New Energy Finance; WDI = World Development Indicators (World Bank); GDP= gross domestic product. 181 Countries (98%) Period 22years(1990-2012) Global Tracking Framework pools and standardizes data produced by national statistical agencies
- 10. LAC Results: 2010-2012 LAC has some of the highest levels of sustainable energy in the world
- 11. LAC has near (but not completely) universal access to electricity Access to electricity, 2012 Access to non-solid fuels, 2012 11 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent 86 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percent 96% 86%
- 12. LAC shows low levels of energy intensity, compared to most other regions Energy intensity by region, 2012 12 4,0 4,0 4,1 4,4 4,9 5,4 5,6 5,8 7,3 7,9 8,5 10,8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 EUR NAF LAC SEA WAS SAS OSN NAR EAS SSA EEU CCA MJ/USD2011PPP
- 13. LAC has the highest share of modern RE in the energy mix 13 5,8 15,2 23,1 9,4 7,9 8,8 9,0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 EAS EUR LAC NAR SAS SEA SSA PercentofTFEC Solid biofuels, trad. Solid biofuels, mod. Hydro Biogas Waste Solar Wind Geothermal Liquid biofuels Modern RE share
- 14. But… rapid improvement is hard from such a high base
- 15. ENERGY ACCESS LAC is near universal electrification, but progressing more slowly in clean cooking
- 16. Electricity access rates have improved faster than those for clean cooking Access to electricity, 1990-2012 Access to non-solid fuels, 1990- 2012 16 89,1 92,7 94,796,4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Percent 71,3 80,5 84,985,6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Percent
- 17. Of the 20 countries with the most people without electricity… 17 100 100 100 99 98 98 97 97 94 93 91 91 91 91 82 79 79 78 76 38 Argentina Chile Brazil Mexico Paraguay Dominican Republic Ecuador Colombia ElSalvador Jamaica Peru Panama PuertoRico Bolivia Honduras Guyana Guatemala Nicaragua St.Vincentand theGrenadines Haiti Accessrate2012 (percent) 5,8 0,6 1,5 0,1 1,2 0,0 0,2 0,3 1,7 0,6 6,2 3,0 3,0 10,3 2,2 2,5 0,2 4,9 0,8 4,0 Argentina Chile Brazil Mexico Paraguay Dominican Republic Ecuador Colombia ElSalvador Jamaica Peru Panama PuertoRico Bolivia Honduras Guyana Guatemala Nicaragua St.Vincentand theGrenadines Haiti Accessratechange2010- 2012(percentagepoints) TOTAL: Many have very high access rates… and many others are improving rapidly 2010-2012 CHANGE: TOTAL 2012
- 18. Of the 20 with the most people without access to non-solid fuels 18 99 96 94 94 94 93 93 91 88 86 85 85 79 76 65 58 49 46 37 8 Argentina Ecuador Brazil CostaRica Venezuela,RB Cuba Chile Dominican Republic Jamaica Colombia Panama Mexico ElSalvador Bolivia Peru Paraguay Honduras Nicaragua Guatemala Haiti Accessratein2012(percent) 0,9 1,4 1,1 1,1 -0,5 0,5 0,9 1,5 1,8 0,7 0,6 0,3 2,9 1,8 1,9 1,5 0,9 1,5 -0,6 0,0 Argentina Ecuador Brazil CostaRica Venezuela,RB Cuba Chile Dominican Republic Jamaica Colombia Panama Mexico ElSalvador Bolivia Peru Paraguay Honduras Nicaragua Guatemala Haiti Accessratepercentagepoint change,2010-2012 Access rates are somewhat lower… …and progress somewhat slower 2010-2012 CHANGE: TOTAL 2012
- 19. 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% >100% 100% = annual rate of improvement needed to reach target by 2030. LAC: Progress against target: Electrification Access to electricity is on pace to meet target
- 20. 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 74% LAC: Progress against target: Clean cooking 2010-2012 Access to non-solid fuels increased at 74% of what would be needed to reach target
- 21. ENERGY EFFICIENCY Overall energy intensity is relatively low, but rate of improvement is mixed
- 22. 22 Only transport has seen sustained improvement in energy intensity since 1990 Energy intensity, 1990-2012 CAGR of energy intensity, 2010-2012 -4,1 -1,4 -1,3 0,3 2,7 8,3 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 5 10 15 20 25 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 GJ/household MJ/2011USDPPP Energy intensity Transport Industrial Agricultural Services Residential Primary But industry improved markedly 2010-2012
- 23. Many have relatively low energy intensity 23 2,2 2,4 2,6 2,8 2,8 3,1 3,1 3,9 3,9 3,9 4,0 4,1 4,2 4,4 4,5 6,0 6,1 6,1 10,5 20,7 0 5 10 15 20 25 EnergyIntensityin2012 (MJ/$2011) -3,3 -4,5 -4,3 0,1 -1,1 0,8 -3,8 -3,6 -0,2 -2,6 -0,6 1,0 4,0 0,6 0,4 1,3 -4,0 1,6 -0,6 -2,0 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 CAGRofEnergyIntensity,2010- 2012(percent) And a number improved markedly (but others regressed) Of the 20 countries with the greatest energy supply 2010-2012 CHANGE: TOTAL 2012
- 24. LAC Energy Intensity progress is mixed Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity did not improve between 2010- 2012 Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by less than 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012 Compound annual growth rate of energy intensity improved by at least 2.6% per annum in 2010-2012
- 25. LAC: Progress against target: Energy Efficiency 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 30% Energy intensity decreased at 30% of target rate from 2010-2012
- 26. RENEWABLE ENERGY LAC has some of the highest RE shares in the world, but increases are limited
- 27. Electricity: LAC has seen steady RE capacity additions since 1990, but falling shares of total capacity Annual renewable capacity additions (bars) and renewables share of capacity (lines), 1990-2012 27 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Percent GW RE capacty addition Geothermal Solar Biomass, Waste Wind Hydro RE share of installed capacity RE share of installed capacity excluding hydro
- 28. Many have very high RE shares 28 41,6 40,3 38,5 33,8 30,3 22,3 19,1 18,6 18,5 15,9 14,6 14,5 11,5 11,2 10,7 9,4 8,1 7,2 6,9 4,4 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 ModernREshareofTFEC, percent 0,3 -2,7 -5,9 0,4 3,3 5,6 -0,7 1,6 0,5 1,9 1,4 1,7 2,1 1,8 0,9 -0,6 -0,3 0,2 0,2 0,2 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 ModernREannualincrement 2010-2012,percent Of the 20 countries with the highest energy consumption But few are increasing rapidly 2010-2012 CHANGE: TOTAL 2012
- 29. Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by less than 1 percentage point 2010-2012 Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption improved by at least 1 percentage point 2010-2012 Share of modern renewable energy in total final energy consumption did not improve between 2010-2012 Few countries rapidly increasing modern renewable share
- 30. LAC: Progress against target: Modern RE 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 18% The share of modern RE in final energy consumption increased at 18% of what would be needed to reach target
- 31. Plans for 2017 GTF
- 32. Timeline GTF 2017 Data collection: August – December 2016 Data analysis and drafting October 2016 –January 2017 Target publication date: early April 2017
- 33. • To build a closer link to countries, the five UN Regional Economic Commissions will join Global Tracking Framework 2017 • Proposals are to Build in country workshops at regional level Produce regional chapters/reports Conduct regional dissemination Set regional capacity building agendas LAC report coordinated by ECLAC Plans for 2017: Regional Reports Global Tracking Framework 2017 will involve more dialogue with countries around data processing
- 34. For more information on the report, please go to: trackingenergy4all.worldbank.org #endenergypoverty
- 35. Annual investment needs range from $49-85 billion
- 36. Electricity access Providing at minimum universal Tier I/III/V electricity access to Sub-Saharan Africa’s population Source: results from AIM model Energy efficiency Significantly reducing energy intensity in Africa Source: WEO 450 Renewable energy Doubling Africa’s share of RE in TFEC Source: IRENA REmap Annual investment needs very much depend on the level of ambition for energy access 1 $Billion/year 368 37 3 1 Tier 5 12 4 2 20 7
- 38. LAC
- 39. Global
- 40. 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60%60% Global Electricity
- 41. 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60%60% Global Electricity 70%
- 42. 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 34% Global: NSF
- 43. 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 25% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 34% Global: NSF
- 44. Global: EE 50% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60%
- 45. Global: EE 50% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60%64%
- 46. Global: Modern Renewable Energy 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60%41 %
- 47. Global: RE 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 20% 0% 100% 80% 40% 60% 54%41 %
- 48. Access
- 49. LAC ELE/NSF: Access deficit Electricity access deficit (millions of people) Non-solid fuel access deficit (millions of people)49 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2010 2012 Millionpeople 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2010 2012 Millionpeople
- 50. Average annual increase in electrified population 2010-2012 Average annual population increase 2010-2012 14.5 million 9.9 million 10.6 million Average annual increase in population with access to non-solid fuels 2010-2012 LAC ELE/NSF: 2010-2012
- 51. Average annual increase in electrified population 2010-2012 Average annual population increase 2010-2012 14.5 million 9.9 million 10.6 million Average annual increase in population with access to non-solid fuels 2010-2012 11.5 million 14.5 million Electricity access rates have improved faster than those for clean cooking
- 52. Diverse technologies for service delivery Variable quality of electricity supply Illegal and secondary connections Community and productive uses of electricity Percentage of population with an electricity connection based on surveys A workable solution for tracking electrification
- 53. A workable solution for energy efficiency Improvement in primary energy intensity (Compound annual growth rate of primary energy supply / GDP in PPP) Energy efficiency is the ratio of energy input to physical output Physical output can only be measured by proxy as GDP Standard GDP measures understate developing country output Final energy consumption overlooks waste in energy production Global measurement only possible at the national level
- 54. A workable solution for renewable energy Percentage of total final energy consumption from renewable sources Renewable energies are those replenished more rapidly than they are consumed Sustainability also critical, but hard to gauge (e.g. biomass) Renewable energies are not affected by combustion inefficiency
- 55. Electrification Electrification rate increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Electrification rate did not increase between 2010-2012 Most LAC countries making steady progress on electrification
- 56. Progress on access to non-solid fuels mixed Rate of access to non-solid fuels did not increase between 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by less than 2 percentage points 2010-2012 Rate of access to non-solid fuels increased by at least 2 percentage points 2010-2012
- 57. Cook stove and fuel together determine performance Adherence to standards of use and maintenance Use of multiple solutions in the same household Availability, affordability, convenience, cultural fit Percentage of population making primary use of non-solid fuels based on surveys A workable solution for tracking clean cooking
- 58. Cook stove and fuel together determine performance Adherence to standards of use and maintenance Use of multiple solutions in the same household Availability, affordability, convenience, cultural fit Percentage of population making primary use of clean fuels and technologies A workable solution for tracking clean cooking
- 59. 5 9 Tier Calculation: Household Electricity Supply