EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING OF POSTPONEMENT RATES IN OPERATION THEATRES OF ADVANCED PEDIATRIC CENTRE - TIME SERIES FORECASTING WITH REGRESSION ANALYSIS

International Journal of Technical Research and Applications e-ISSN: 2320-8163,
www.ijtra.com Volume 6, Issue 3 (MAY-JUNE 2018), PP. 73-79
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EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING OF
POSTPONEMENT RATES IN OPERATION
THEATRES OF ADVANCED PEDIATRIC
CENTRE - TIME SERIES FORECASTING WITH
REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Momia Yashpal1
, Koushal Vipin2
, Talati Shweta3
, Bhagat Hemant4
, Kumar Ashok5
, Singh Ranjana6
, Gupta Kanika7
,
Momia Nidhi8
,
1,2,3,5,6
Department of Hospital Administration
4,7
Department of Anesthesia and Intensive care
1-7
Post Graduation Institute of Medical Research and Education Chandigarh (India)
8
Department of Health, Government of Haryana (India)
Abstract— Background Hospital contributes significantly
tangible and intangible resources on a concurred plan by the
scheduling of surgery on the OT list. Postponement decreases
efficiency by declining throughput leads to wastage of resources
hence burden to the nation. Patients and their family face
economic and emotional implication due to the postponement.
Postponement rate being a quality indicator controls check
mechanism could be developed from the results. Postponement of
elective scheduled operations results in inefficient use of the
operating room (OR) time on the day of surgery. Inconvenience
to patients and families are also caused by postponements.
Moreover, the day of surgery (DOS) postponement creates
logistic and financial burden associated with extended hospital
stay and repetitions of pre-operative preparations to an extent of
repetition of investigations in some cases causing escalated costs,
wastage of time and reduced income. Methodology A cross-
sectional study was done in the operation theaters of a tertiary
care hospital in which total ten operation theaters of General
Surgery Data of scheduled, performed and postponed surgeries
was collected from all the operation theater with effect from
March 1st to September 30th, 2018. A questionnaire was
developed to find out the reasons for the postponement for all
hospital’s stakeholders (surgeons, Anesthetist, Nursing Officer)
and they were further evaluated time series analysis of
scheduling of Operation Theater for moving average technique.
Results Total 958 surgeries were scheduled and 772 surgeries
performed were and 186 surgeries were postponed with a
postponement rate of 19.42% in the cardiac surgery department
during the study period. Month-wise postponement Rate
exponential smoothing of time series data shows the dynamic of
operating suits. To test throughput Postponement rate was
plotted the postponed surgeries and on regression analysis is in a
perfect linear relationship.
Index Terms— Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing,
Regression Analysis, ARIMA, DES, Operation Research,
Forecasting, Optimization, Scheduled surgeries Forecasting.
I. BACKGROUND
Hospital contributes significantly tangible and intangible
resources on a concurred plan by the scheduling of surgery on
the OT list. Postponement decreases efficiency by declining
throughput leads to wastage of resources hence burden to the
nation. Patients and their family face economic and emotional
implication due to the postponement. Postponement rate being
a quality indicator controls check mechanism could be
developed from the results. Postponement of elective
scheduled operations results in inefficient use of the operating
room (OR) time on the day of surgery. The efficiency of
Operation Theater depends on the constant flow of the patients
to fulfill its capacity. The throughput of the theater is declined
due to the delay in the postponement of surgery resulting in
wastage of resources. Level and cause of postponement can be
established through a study. Implementation strategy (action
plan) to minimize the postponement of surgery may be
formulated through this information. A late postponement is a
waste of, material, money, time and human resources hence are
the burden of the Nation.
Postponement of scheduled surgeries Increments costs
Diminishes Efficiency Duplicates workload Squanders
Operating Room time. Increases patient's out of pocket
expenditure due to Overstay Redundancy in a preoperative
course of action and management. Numerous Deliberates have
proposed many ways of making strides of proficiency by
guaranteeing Maximum Utilization, Minimizing Over-running,
Minimizing Postponement Patients and their families face
economic and emotional implications for a postponement if the
case is canceled. When the cases are postponed more than half
of family members of patients miss at least 1 day of work.
Operating room utilization is defined as the measure of the use
of an operating room that is properly staffed with people

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needed to successfully deliver a surgical procedure to a patient.
Many postponements are often due to non-medical problems
such as a full ICU. Surgeon unavailability, or bad weather and
postponement rates can be monitored statistically. Elective
surgery cancellations always lead to insufficient utilization of
manpower and hospital resources and can also lead to an
increase in patients treatment expenses due to a prolonged
hospital stay and in many cases, repetitions of pre-operative
preparations and management1. Delays and postponements
specifically lower the morale among the staff, patients, and
relatives and may reflect a decreased productivity in their
workplaces.4 There is a need for healthcare teams to encourage
cost-effectiveness in every aspect of patient care. Therefore,
avoidance of unnecessary cancellation of elective surgery
should lead to a reduction in the overall cost of the treatment.7
Cancellation is a major problem in most hospitals.8It is an
inconvenience, which has a significant ripple effect.15
Cancellation of cases on the scheduled day of surgery leads to
inefficient utilization of manpower and scarce
resources.21Cancellation of elective operations is a parameter
to assess the quality of patient care and quality of the
management system.18Hence, this is one criterion for
evaluating the efficiency of surgical service which has a low
rate of cancellation of operations, which compel the hospital
management to demonstrate the good performance.10
II. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
A. RESEARCH SETTING:
The study of postponement of scheduled surgeries was
done in Main OT located at Nehru Hospital, Cardiac OT
located in the Advance cardiac center (ACC), Pediatric
Operation Theater complex located in Advance Pediatric center
(APC), and an Eye Operation theater located in Advance Eye
Center (AEC). Bed compliment of Nehru hospital is 949.
Advanced Pediatric Centre is 243 and Advance Cardiac Centre
is 208, and advance eye center is 101 respectively. Main
Operation theatre complex is situated on the 4th and 5th floor
of Nehru Hospital, Pediatric, Cardiac operation theater
complex and eye OT. General Surgery Department has 25
Senior Resident doctors and 9 consultant surgeons.
B. RESEARCH DESIGN:
This study was conducted from March 1st to September
30th, 2017. It was a cross-sectional study. Study tools:
Questionnaire/opinion sheet was used. It included a semi-
structured Performa by which information and data were
obtained through the communication with the Doctors and
nursing officer.
C. SAMPLING TECHNIQUE DATA COLLECTION:
Observation was done only for the scheduled cases enlisted
for a specific day. The List of surgeries was generated before 8
pm on a previous day. Data for scheduled, performed and
postponed surgeries were collected for seven months. The
observation was not made during holidays, as routine cases
were not scheduled on those days. A universal sampling
technique was adopted to select the one surgical specialty for
each day since there are ten surgical specialties (twelve
working days for each department thus data from the various
stakeholders were taken for total 120 days). The opinion
regarding the postponement was taken from various
stakeholders (anesthetist, surgeon and staff nurse) was done by
using a questionnaire/ opinion sheet, after obtaining the
informed consent In case of different opinion regarding the
postponement of the same case, consensus was arrived by the
discussion among surgeon, anesthetist, staff nurse and Hospital
administrator and final opinion was entered in Annexure B.
Postponement rate was calculated by dividing total number of
surgeries postponed on day of surgery by the total no. of
scheduled surgeries on that day multiplied by a hundred.
Table 1 Abbreviation
Data were compiled into two major groups that are hospital
related and patient-related causes of the postponement and
they were further classified into avoidable and non-avoidable
causes of postponement. Statistical analysis was done with
the help of SPSS version 22, and stat plus application.
D. EXCLUSION CRITERIA:
All the cases posted as unlisted cases or emergency cases.
E. DATA ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE:
The data collected was analyzed by using, the descriptive
statistical method to describe sample characteristics in terms of
frequency, mode, and percentage, moving average, exponential
smoothing, Regression Analysis, and modeling techniques
were used to interpret the data. Following abbreviations were
used to interpolate the data
III. ETHICAL JUSTIFICATION
This was a cross-sectional study to study the causes of
postponement of scheduled surgeries. The confidentiality of
any patient or the institution was not to be breached evolving
an ethical issue. Treatment did not be altered delayed deprived
when the study was undertaken. The study did not affect the
procedure, process, and outcome of the ongoing treatment of
the patient. A study in no way involves any experimentation on
human no intervention procedure was carried out as apart of
NAN Not Actual Number
MAPE Mean Absolute Percentage Error
MAD Mean Absolute Deviation
MSD Mean Squared Deviation
d.f. Degree of Freedom
SS Sum of Square
MS Mean Square

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study. The ethical issues in the study had been paid due
attention to and the study did not delay any patient required
investigation or treatment. Freedom of expression and un-
indented use of information generated victimization of
participants and threats were taken care with special attention
and due regards as per recommendation during the approval
from the Institutional Ethics Committee.
IV. OBSERVATION AND RESULTS
Postponement case study for the scheduled surgeries was
conducted in the operation theaters of PGIMER Chandigarh.
Data from operation theaters were collected w.e.f 1st March
to 30 September 2017. During this period, there were total
174 working days and total ten surgical departments hence
1740 observations were recorded for scheduled performed
and postponed surgeries. During this period, 26,662 surgeries
were scheduled 21,805 surgeries were performed and 4837
surgeries were postponed and postponement rate was 18.22%
all over the institution. However, Total 958 surgeries were
scheduled and 772 surgeries performed were and 186
surgeries were postponed with a postponement rate of
19.42% in the cardiac surgery department during the study
period. Total 1,825 surgeries were scheduled and 1,609
surgeries were postponed and 216 surgeries were performed
with postponement rate of 11.84% in the pediatric surgery
department. Total 12,139 surgeries were scheduled and
10,660 surgeries were postponed and 1,479 surgeries were
performed with postponement rate of 12.18% in eye surgery
OTs. Postponement rate was calculated by using the formula
asunder.
Postponed Surgeries
Postponement Rate = __________________ * 100
Scheduled Surgeries
Fig.1 Postponement Rates Trend
Month-wise postponement rate of scheduled surgeries in
Pediatric surgeries Department is graphically represented on
the time trend in Fig 1.Postponement rate decreases
from11.36 % to 10.82% from the month of March to April
2017 then increases to 13.89% in the month of May and
13.33% in the month of June. Postponement rate decreases to
be 6.94% in the month of July and then increases to 13.86%
and 12.05% in the month of August and September
respectively and increases to 12.37% in the month of May
and 12.36% in the month of June. Postponement rate
decreases to 12.35% in the month of July and then increases
to 14.65% and 12.49% in the month of August and
September respectively.
On the ground of data for the month of March, April May and
June the forecasted value for the postponement rate during
the month of July was 11.99%, for the August it was 12.64%,
and the September 11.35%. Forecasted for postponement rate
increased from July to August and then decreased from
August to September as saw in actual that is increased from
6.94% in July to 13.86% in August and then decreased to
12.05% in September 2017
Fig 2 Moving Average Forecasting
Month ActualValue Forecast StandardError
March 11.36
April 10.82
May 13.79 NaN NaN
June 13.33 NaN NaN
July 6.94 11.99 NaN
August 13.86 12.64667 NaN
September 12.05 11.35333 2.77996
October _ 11.37667 2.95022
November _ 10.95 2.9919
Table 2 Moving Average results of Forecasting

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n the ground of data for the month of March, April May and
June the forecasted value for the postponement rate during
the month of July was 11.33%, for the August it was 12.12%,
and the September 12.36%. Forecasted for postponement rate
increased from July to August and then also from August to
September as saw in actual that is increased from 12.35% in
July to 14.65% in August but in contrast to increasing in
forecasted it actually decreased to 12.49% in September
2017.
On the application of exponential smoothing with Alfa value,
0.5 shows operation theater remained well optimized and
smoothed in the month of March, April, June, and September
by generating Residual less the One. During the month of May
due to the Summer Vacation of Consultants Residual is 2.6
and further be smoothened by appropriate planning with
reallocation of Human Resources and List of operation theater
can be formulated with respect to the availability of surgeons
and time.
Month Original Smoothed Residuals
March Original Smoothed Residuals
April 11.36 11.73571 -0.37571
May 10.82 11.54786 -0.72786
June 13.79 11.18393 2.60607
July 13.33 12.48696 0.84304
August 6.94 12.90848 -5.96848
September 13.86 9.92424 3.93576
Table 3 Exponential Smoothing of Postponement Rates
Fig 3 Exponential Smoothing of Postponement Rates
On the perusal of the formula for calculating the
postponement rate.
Postponed Surgeries
Postponement Rate = ________________ * 100
Scheduled Surgeries
Postponed Surgeries = Scheduled Surgeries – Performed
Surgeries
I. Input Indicator
• Scheduled Surgeries
II. Throughput Indicators
• Postponed surgeries (Independent Variable)
• Postponement Rate (Dependable Variable)
III. Hypothesis: Postponement Rates has a perfect linear
relationship with the postponed surgeries.
IV. Null Hypothesis (H0): Postponement Rates does not
have a perfect linear relationship with the postponed
Surgeries
Fig 4 Regression Line Plot Between Postponed surgeries
and postponement Rate
V. LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL
Pediatric Surgery PPR = 0.37591 * Postponed Surgeries
R 0.99769
R-square 0.99539
Adjusted R-square 0.99539
S 0.87605
N 7
Table 4 Regression Statistics
On the perusal of the p-Value 0.00032 which is less than
0.005, we successfully rejected the null hypothesis that is
Postponement rates do not have a perfect linear relationship
with the postponed surgeries.

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d.f. SS MS F p-level
Regression 1 33.1806 33.1806 76.41175 0.00032
Residual 5 2.17117 0.43423
Total 6 35.35177
Coefficient StandardError LCL UCL t Stat p-level H0(5%)
Postponed
Surgeries
0.29752 0.03404 0.21002 0.38501 8.74138 0.00032 Rejected
T(5%) 2.57058
Table 5 ANOVA Test for Postponed surgeries with Postponement Rate
Meaning thereby Postponement Rates has perfect Linear
Relationship with the postponed surgeries hence throughput
factors are responsible for the postponement rate efficiency
of surgeons to access the time of surgery and delay in
previous surgeries contribute the major factor for the
increased postponement rates and non availability of surgeon
during the leave period (Summer Vacations) or occupancy of
available surgeons in scheduling emergency operation is
contributed another throughput factor for the increasing
postponement rates during vacation period of other
consultants. Incomplete preoperative workup and changing
health status was another throughput factors responsible for
the high postponement rate during the post-rainy seasons like
in the month of August as suggested by the multiple
stakeholders.
Postponement of scheduled surgeries results in increased
consumption of various tangible resources like Financial
Resources, Organizational Resources, Physical Resources,
Technological Resources, The organization's borrowing
capacity, ability to generate internal funds, formal reporting
structure and its formal planning, controlling, and
coordinating systems. In addition to this sophistication and
location of a hospital's plant and equipment, access to raw
materials; stock of technology; such as patents; trademarks;
copyright, and trade secrets; take a toll. The postponement
not only impact tangible resources but also to intangible
resources like Human resources, Innovation, Knowledge,
Trust, Managerial capabilities, Organizational routines, Ideas,
Scientific capabilities; Capacity to innovate; Reputation with
beneficiaries; Brand name, Perceptions of quality; durability
and reliability; Reputation with stakeholder for efficient;
effective; supportive; and mutually beneficial interactions
which causes depreciation of institute. These factors seem
unnecessary in a public sector hospital however corporate
hospitals have deemed necessary for formulating different
strategies to minimize postponement in constrained recourse
in developing nations. During analysis of postponement
cases, it appears that in 80% postponements of scheduled
surgeries were due to delay in previous surgery, changing
patient health state, not contactable, failure to arrive,
scheduling an emergency operation, were responsible. It was
also observed that among the postponed surgeries 63.67% of
cases were due to avoidable reasons as also suggested by
Hanna et al that elective procedure were potentially avoidable
and may be prevented using quality improvement techniques.
Maximum postponements rates are observed during the
month of May that may be due to the vacation of the faculty.
VI. CONCLUSION
1. It was evident from our study that surgical
postponement rate is relatively lower than other
studies conducted in India and abroad.
2. Our study also concluded that only five reasons that
are the delay in previous surgery. Scheduling
Emergency Operation, changing patient health
status, Incomplete preoperative Diagnosis and
patient absent are responsible for 80% postponement
of scheduled surgeries.
3. Among all postponement of scheduled surgical
cases, sixty-three percent were avoidable.
VII. RECOMMENDATION
1. Pediatric surgery Operation Theater has predictable
postponement rates and can be further well
optimized by taking appropriate operational research
techniques like linear programming, Discrete Event
Simulation Modeling, and Network Analysis.
2. Auto Regression Integrated with Moving Average
(ARIMA) models is also very useful to eliminate the
residue by streamlining internal processes after the
process flow analysis of department. Residuals in
exponential smoothing can be eliminated by
algebraic equations through the linear programming
on the result of Data Envelopment Analysis of

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suggestions from various stakeholders.
3. Value Stream Mapping (flow chart) of the processes
of the surgical department in integration with
diagnostic and support services.
4. Time value analysis will further help to identify the
bottlenecks and waste can be eliminated accordingly.
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EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING OF POSTPONEMENT RATES IN OPERATION THEATRES OF ADVANCED PEDIATRIC CENTRE - TIME SERIES FORECASTING WITH REGRESSION ANALYSIS