Population Dynamic.pptx

POPULATION DYNAMICS
PRESENTEDBY-
Ms. Itisha Rose Prasad
Nursing Tutor
GOV CON, Kanpur

• Population-A population is all the organisms of
the same species or group which live in the same
particular geographical area, and have the
capability of interbreeding.

Humans
Animals
Today
10,000 years ago
Animals
Humans

• Demography- (demos = population, graphy = study)
is defined as the scientific study of human population
which includes the study of changes in population
size, its composition and distribution.

DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE
HIGH
STATIONARY
STAGE
EARLY
EXPANSION
STAGE
LATE
EXPANSIONS
STAGE
LOW
STATIONARY
STAGE
DECLINING
STAGE

• HIGH STATIONARY STAGE-
Birth rate and death rate are high and cancel
each other.
Thus, population size remains stationary.
India was in this phase till 1920.
• EARLY EXPANSION STAGE-
Death rate starts declining.
Birth rate remains high
Birth rate may even increase due to improved
health conditions.
India remained this stage from 1921-1950

• LATE EXPANSION STAGE-
 Death rate continues to fall
 Birth rate also starts falling.
 India is currently in this stage.
• LOW STATIONARY STAGE-
Both birth rate and death rate are low and
almost equal
Population size remains constant
Most industrialized nations are in this phase.

 DECLINING STAGE-
 Birth rate falls below the death rate
 The population size starts falling
 Some of east European Countries like Germany
and Hungary are in this phase.

• Population dynamic- it refers to the
study and measurement of population
change and components of change
over time.

FACTORS INVOLVED IN POPULATION
DYNAMICS
DEATH BIRTH MIGRATION

• The population may increase or
remain stationary or may decline.

MEASUREMENT TOOL FOR POPULATION
DYNAMICS
RATE RATIO PROPORTION

RATES
• A rate measures the occurrence of
some particular event in a population
during a given period.

Various Categories of Rate-
• Crude Rate-
• These are the actual observed rates such as the birth
rate and the death rate.
• Crude Rate = Total events in an area X 1000
Mid year population
Note-
Total events and the total mid year population both
should be of the same area and of the same year
•

• Specific Rates-
• These are the actual observed rates due to specific
diseases (e.g tuberculosis) or occurring in specific
groups (eg. Age-sex ratio) or during specific time
period (e.g annual, monthly, weekly)

RATIO
• It expresses a relation in size between two random
quantities.
• It is expressed as- X : Y or X
Y
• Examples- Sex ratio, Child Woman

PROPORTION
• It is a ratio which indicates the relation in magnitude
of a part of the whole.
• The proportion is always expressed as a percentage-
• Example-
The number of children with scabies
at a certain time X 100
The total number of children in the
village at the same time.

CRUDE BIRTH RATE-
• It refers to the number of live births per 1000 on
estimated mid year population.
• This measure does not depict the true picture of
natality because the entire population is not exposed
to child bearing.
CBR=No. of live births during the year X 1000
Estimated midyear population

QUESTION-
In the year 2007, there were 3250 births in a city,
with the mid year population of 2,23000 .
What is the crude birth rate for this year?

FERTILITY RATES
• The fertility rates are computed based on woman
population in the reproductive age i.e period of 15-
45/49.
• The other fertility rates are as follows-
o General Fertility Rate(GFR)- it refers to the
number of live births per 1000 woman aged 15-45
in a year.
o General Marital Fertility Rate(GMFR)- it
refers to the number of live births per 1000
married woman aged 15-45 year in a year

o Age Specific Fertility Rate(ASFR)- it refers to the
number of live births per 1000 woman in any
specified age group during the reproductive period.
o Age Specific Marital Fertility Rate(ASMFR)- it
refers to the number of live births per 1000 married
woman in specified age group in a year.
o Total Fertility Rate(TFR)- it refers to the average
number of children that would be born alive to a
woman if she experiences through all her child
bearing years conforming to the age specific fertility
rates prevalent in the community.

TOTAL FERTILITY RATE
2.45 children born/woman (2016 estimate)
BIRTH RATE
19.3 births/1000 population (2016 estimate)

• QUESTION-
• In the year 2010, there were 75000 live births
for a population of 1.25 million woman
between the age of 15-45 years. What is the
fertility rate for this year?

CRUDE DEATH RATE
• It is defined as the number of deaths per 1000
estimated midyear population in year in a defined
area.
• It is used to measure the change in population size
over a specified time . It is also an indicator of
community health
• .
CDR=No. of deaths during the year X 1000
Estd midyear population of
the same year

• QUESTION-
• In 2007, there were 2200 deaths in a city with
estimated mid year population of 2,23000.
What is the crude death rate for this year?

SPECIFIC DEATH RATE
• They help us to identify particular groups “at risk”
for prevention action..
• For example-
No. of deaths from TB during the year X 1000
Estimated midyear population of
the same year

• QUESTION-
• In the year 2017, 500 people died out of cancer
in a area with the total population of 3,00,000.
What is the Specific Death Rate?

• The other specific death rates are-
• Age Specific death Rate- It refers to the number of
deaths in a particular age group per 1000 midyear
population
• Sex Specific Mortality Rate- It refers to the number
of deaths by sex per 1000 mid year population of
particular sex.

• Age Sex Specific Mortality Rate- It refers to the
number of deaths by particular age and sex per 1000
midyear population of the same age and sex.
• Maternal Mortality rate- It refers to number of
pregnant woman due to any pregnancy related cause
within 42 days of termination of pregnancy per 1000
live births.

CASE FATALITY RATE
• It is simply the ratio of deaths to cause .
• The time interval is not specified.
• It is typically used in acute infections like food
poisoning, cholera, measles.
No. of deaths due to a disease X 100
Total no. of cases due to that
disease

• QUESTION-
• In the year 2017, the total population of an
area was 3,00,000 in which 5000 people
suffered from cancer out of which 500 died
What is the Case Fatality Rate?

PROPORTIONAL MORTALITY
RATES
• It is useful to know what proportions of total
deaths are occurring in a particular age group
• Proportional Mortality From a Specific Disease-
•
No. of deaths due to specific disease in a year X 100
Total deaths from all causes in that year

• QUESTION-
• In the year 2017, the total population of an
area was 3,00,000. the total death in 2017 was
20000 out of which 500 people had died out
of cancer. What is the Proportional Mortality
Rate?

• Under -5 Proportional Mortality Rates-
• Proportional Mortality Rates for aged 50 years
and above-
No. of deaths under 5 years of age X 100
Total deaths during that same year
No. of deaths of persons age 50 years and above X 100
Total deaths of all age groups in that same year

MIGRATION
• It refers to spatial or geographic movement of
population involving a change of usual
residence between clearly defined geographic
units.
• This change is not temporary but it is permanent
for the purpose of residing.
• It is both:
International Migration
Internal Migration

Immigration Rate (IR) - It refers to the number
of immigrants arriving at a particular palce
(destination ) per 1000 population at that
destination in a given year.
No. of immigrants in a year X 1000
Total mid year population
of destination

• Emigration Rate (ER) – It refers to the
number of emmigrats departing an area of
origin per 1000 population at that area of
population in the same year.
No. of emmigrants in a year X 1000
of origin

• Net Migration Rate (NMR) - the net migration rate
shows the net effect of immigration emigration on
areas population, expresses as increase (+) or
decrease (-) per 1000 population of the area in a given
year.
No. of immigrants - emigrants in a year X 1000
of origin

POPULATION 1,266,883,598 (July 2016 est.)
POPUALTION
GROWTH RATE
1.19% (2016 estimate)
TOTAL FERTILITY
RATE
2.45 children born/woman
(2016 estimate)
BIRTH RATE 19.3 births/1000 population
(2016 estimate)
DEATH RATE 7.3 deaths/1000 population
(2016 estimate)
MATERNAL
MORTALITY RATE
174 deaths/ 100,000 live births
(2015 estimate)
NET MIGRATION
RATE
0 migrants/ 1000 population
(2016 estimate)

DEMOGRAPHICS OF MADHYA PRADESH

POPULATION 72.6 million (March 2017 est.).
POPUALTION
GROWTH RATE
1.19% (2016 estimate)
TOTAL FERTILITY
RATE
2.29 children born/woman
(2016 estimate)
BIRTH RATE 19.3 births/1000 population
(2016 estimate)
DEATH RATE 7.3 deaths/1000 population
(2016 estimate)
MATERNAL
MORTALITY RATE
174 deaths/ 100,000 live births
(2015 estimate)
NET MIGRATION
RATE
0 migrants/ 1000 population
(2016 estimate)

NATIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC GOALS
• Reducing Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 1 per
1000 live births.
• Reducing Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to 28 per 1000
live births.
• Reducing Total Fertility Rate (TFR) to 2.1.
• Reducing malnutrition among children of age group 0-
3 years to half its present level.
• Reducing anaemia among women and girls by 50%.
• Raising the sex ratio for age group 0-6 to 950 by 2016-
17

BIBLIOGRAPHY
• http://planningcommission.gov.in/sectors/index.php?sectors
=hea
• www.populationmatters.org/the_issue/overview/facts/?gelid
• www.populationpyramid.net/india/1995/
• http://www.indexmundi.com/india/demographics_profile.ht
ml
• www.census.gov
• https://ourworldindata.org/fertility/
• http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/indias-fertility-
rate-more-than-halves-over-40-years/article19124554.ece
BIBLIOGRAPHY
Bhaskar Nima. Midwifery and Obstetrical Nursing. 2nd Edition. Banglore: Emmess
Medical Publisher; 2015 Pp- 147-156
Dutta DC. Textbook of obstetrics. 7th Edition. New Delhi: jaypee brothers Medical
Publishers (P) ltd; 2013. Pp-108-110, 501,644-650
Gulani K.K. Community Health Nursing, 1st Edition.Delhi: Kumar publishing house;
2008
P.p.-265-295.
Park K. Park’s Textbook Of Preventive and Social Medicine. Banarasidas Bhanot
Publishers. 2009. Pg 384-386,450-454

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