12b beyond unipolarity
- 1. Lecture 12b: Beyond the unipolar world
- 2. Into the 21st century • The world since the 1990s has thrown up new challenges, but not necessarily the ones that Fukuyama and Huntington predicted • Both visions of the future have been dismissed as simplistic and irrelevant to the reality of the 21st century • Instead, recent years have shown the limits of unipolarity and the beginnings of a shift towards nonpolarity or even a new bipolarity
- 3. Unipolarity undermined • The United States remains the world’s only military superpower – a position that will not be challenged for many decades • The USA continues to maintain a huge international military commitment
- 4. The limits of American power • Despite its overwhelming military power, the USA has seen its prestige damaged as a result of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan • Military power has not proved sufficient to achieve a satisfactory political settlement
- 5. China: the new superpower? • After 20 years of sustained economic growth, China has the ability to translate its considerable economic power into real military power • How will it use this power?
- 6. China’s first aircraft carrier • In September 2012, China commissioned its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning • The ship gives China the ability to project its power beyond the country’s borders
- 7. The Liaoning
- 8. Projecting power • China’s new ability to project its power into the surrounding seas has caused anxiety in the region • China claims a large area of the South and East China seas as its sovereign territory • Chinese claims conflict with those of its neighbours
- 10. The Senkaku-Diaoyutai dispute • China, Taiwan and Japan claim the uninhabited Pinnacle Islands (Senkaku or Diaoyu) in the East China Sea • It is likely that the area contains oil deposits • The dispute has led to angry protests in the PRC and Japan
- 11. The Paracel Islands • The PRC, Taiwan and Vietnam claim sovereignty over the Paracel Island group • The PRC took the islands from South Vietnam after a naval skirmish in 1974
- 12. The Spratly Islands • The most complicated dispute involves the Spratly Islands • The PRC, Taiwan, Brunei, Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia all claim parts of the group • The area is likely to hold significant deposits of oil and gas, contains rich fishing grounds and is crossed by major shipping lanes
- 13. China and the wider international system • It is uncertain how a more powerful China will fit into the wider international system • Will China use its power to become a rival to the United States? • Will Chinese power see the emergence of a new Cold War? • Liberals believe that a more assertive China can be accommodated within the current international system • Realists expect that growing Chinese power will lead to confrontation with the United States