1_-_Introduction_to_Total_Cost Management_Workshop.pdf

www.costengineering.eu
By Cost Engineering

07:30 – Arrival
07:45 – Introduction & TCM
08:00 – AACE International Certification
08:15 – Introduction to Cost Engineering
10:00 – Role of the Cost Engineer
10:15 – Essence of Total Cost Management (TCM) Solutions
12:15 – End
2

Arrival
Introduction & TCM
AACE International Certification
Introduction to Cost Engineering
Role of the Cost Engineer
Essence of Total Cost Management (TCM) Solutions
3

•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Expertise
• Operating in Capex, Opex and Turn Arounds & Maintenance Projects
• Estimate Preparation, Review & Validation throughout project life cycle
• Cost Management / Project Control
• Organizational Development
• Risk & Escalation Analysis
Cost Data Development
• Industry Standards & Custom Database Development
• Historical Project Database Development
Education
• Approved AACE International Education Provider (AEP)
Professional Services
Cleopatra Enterprise
• Cost Estimating and Cost Management software for Cost Engineers, by Cost
Engineers

• Bulk storage
• Mining & Minerals
• Construction Industry (Civil)
• EPC(M)
• Food and Nutrition
• Government
• Offshore & Marine
• Shipbuilding
• Oil & Gas industry
• Heavy industry
• Pharmaceutical industry
• Petro-/chemical industry
• Power & Energy

7
“…the effective application of professional and
technical expertise to plan and control resources,
costs, profitability and risks. Simply stated, it is
a systematic approach to managing
cost throughout the life cycle of any enterprise,
program, facility, project, product, or service.
This is accomplished through the application of
cost engineering and cost management
principles, proven methodologies and the latest
technology in support of the management
process.”
AACE
International’s
Constitution

“It costs time”
“It costs resources”
“ It costs money”
EVERYTHING
invested in assets and projects is a
COST
That is why it is called
TOTAL COST Management
(TCM)
8

For Business, TCM is An Integrated Recipe for Managing Portfolios,
Programs, and Projects in Alignment with Business Strategy!
9
Better
Control

10
Recommended Practices (RPs)
Professional Practice Guides (PPGs)
Cost Engineer’s Notebook
Skills and Knowledge (S&K)
CCC CCE PSP EVP…
T C
M

Presentation Outline
Understanding TCM
11
Applying TCM
TCM Benefits

Top-to-Bottom
Business Benefits
• Profitable Asset Portfolios
– Makes sure your resources go where they’ll get the best
• ROI (Return On Investment)
• IRR (Internal Rate of Return)
• RONA (Return on Net Assets)
• Integrated/Aligned Programs
– Makes sure your projects are all integrated, aligned and
coordinated
• Controlled Projects
– Makes sure each project gives business the results that were
planned for
12
…and, makes sure everything is
aligned with Business Strategy!

Return on Assets is largely driven by practices used
before projects begin
• With TCM, owners understand and manage the
costs of their asset base over the entire asset life
cycle
Successful Projects are required if the planned return
is to be achieved
• With TCM, owners and contractors control the
costs of their projects over the entire project life
cycle
13

Understanding TCM
14
Applying TCM
TCM Benefits

15
Plan-Do-Check-Assess (PDCA)
Based on the time-tested Deming or Shewhart cycle.
In essence, TCM is a quality management process.
PLAN
(plan activities)
DO
(perform
activities)
CHECK
(measure
performance
of activities)
ASSESS
(evaluate
measures, act
upon variances)
PDCA
Cycle

16
PLAN
(plan activities)
DO
(perform
activities)
CHECK
(measure
performance
of activities)
ASSESS
(evaluate
measures, act
upon variances)
PDCA
Cycle
Continuous Improvement
Every TCM process
employs feedback and
improvement!
Integrated
Every TCM process has
P,D,C & A steps that are
All linked back to
business strategy!

17

Understanding TCM
18
Applying TCM
TCM Benefits

Use it as a guide for process development or re-
engineering
• A “go-by” that can be modified to suit each company's’
processes, phasing, org., lexicon, etc.
• Can be applied in parts, but take care that the
resulting process is integrated
Use it as a business reference
19

Start
Introduction
AACE International Certifications
22

Day 1: The role of the Cost Engineer
Day 2: Basics of Cost Estimating
Day 3: Introduction to Statistics, Economics & Finance
Day 4: Basics of Planning & Cost Control
Day 5: Introduction to Project Management
Day 6: Other Cost Engineering Related Topics
Day 7: Other Cost Engineering Related Topics & Practical Case
Day 8: Continuation Practical Case by Professional
Day 9: Preparation Exam
Day 10: Recap of basic statistics and economics, Advanced
Statistics, Economics and Finance (optional for CCP)
23

1) AACE International, Certified Cost Technician, Primer, First Edition
2) AACE International Education Board, Skills & Knowledge of Cost Engineering,
5th Edition Revised
3) AACE International, Total Cost Management Framework, TCM Framework
4) AACE International Recommended Practice, 11R-88, Required Skills and
Knowledge of a Cost Engineer
5) AACE International Recommended Practice, 10S-90, Cost Engineering
Terminology
6) AACE International Recommended Practice, 34R-05, Basis of Estimate
24

Structure of AACEI courses
Certification
Approved Education Provider (AEP)
Type of courses
25

AEP:
Approved Education Provider
What does it offer:
A provider approval system whose standards ensure quality
continuing education programming
Continuous quality improvement through course review and on-
going support from AACE staff
Ability to award AACE Professional Development Hours (PDHS)
Course promotion and organizational recognition on AACE
Internationals website
26

Education: Function overview
(According AACEI)
CCT:
Certified Cost Technician
CEP:
Certified
Estimating
Professional
PSP:
Planning &
Scheduling
Professional
CFCC:
Certified
Forensic Claims
Consultant
CCP:
Certified Cost Professional
(formerly known as CCC/CCE)
(also recognized by ICEC)
EVP:
Earned
Value
Professional
27
CST:
Certified
Scheduling
Technician
DRMP:
Decision and Risk
Management
Professional

Requirements:
4 Full years of experience in a cost/schedule related field, of which up to 4 years may be
substituted by a college/university.
Submit application and fees (done by Cost Engineering Consultancy)
Pass the exam (3 hours exam, 70% must be achieved)
Exam structure:
100 multiple choice questions on Supporting skills and Knowledge (open book)
Allowing each candidate to bring the AACE International Certified Cost Technician Primer and the S&K of Cost
Engineering textbooks with them to testing center
Downloaded reference books should be printed and bound in a notebook; no loose paper, iPads, Kindles, etc.
will be permitted for resource materials.
Candidates are also permitted to bring any style of calculator, including programmable calculators, to use
during the exam
Once the exam is launched there is no break (however, the candidate may take a bio
break if needed, but the timer will continue to advance).
Study Materials:
1) Skills and Knowledge of Cost Engineering, 5th edition Revised
2) AACE International Certified Cost Technician Primer
3) The main questions in the CCT exam are about definitions
28

Requirements:
8 Full years of professional experience, of which up to 4 years may be substituted
by a college/university.
Submit Technical paper (2500 words)
Submit application and fees (done by Cost Engineering Consultancy)
Pass the exam (5 hours exam, 70% must be achieved on both parts)
Exam structure:
The exam is delivered through computer based testing (CBT)
Part 1 is 120 continuous simple and complex multiple choice questions (closed
book), BUT onscreen formula sheet is accessible during the exam
Basic Cost Engineering Skills & Knowledge, Economic Analysis, Project Management, and Cost
Estimating and Control
Part 2 Technical paper
The topic should be something with which you are already familiar, such as a project you have done
at work or something in which you have acquired a great deal of expertise in your professional
career.
The chosen topic is not as important as your ability to communicate through your paper.
Be sure to follow the recommendations described in the Certification Paper Requirements (How to
Write a Technical Paper) guide
29

Start
Introduction
31

AACE International defines Cost Engineering as:
“That area of engineering practice where engineering
judgment and experience are utilized in the
application of scientific principles and techniques to
the problems of cost estimating, cost control and
profitability”.
32

Applying methods and techniques for:
Estimating
Planning
Cost Control / Cost Management
Contracting / Tendering
Quantity Survey
Risk Assessment
Value Engineering
33

Case
• What is the function of this letter scale?
• Design a new one for half the price!
New price € 50,-
What is the price of this
letter scale?
The Letter Scale
34

Estimated value:
+/- € 0,20
Solution
35

36

As long there is money involved in the
world of supply and demand, at least that
long the question will be asked:
‘ ’
How much does it cost
and what is my ROI?
37

Cost Estimate:
• A cost estimate is the prediction of the probable
costs of a project, of a given and documented
scope, to be completed at a defined location and
point of time in the future.
38

Cost Estimate
• Involves assumptions and uncertainty
• and therefore some level of error
• Involves probabilities
• and therefore ranges of costs
• Involves a given scope
• contingency covers variability within the defined
scope - not changes in scope
39

Name of the estimating types:
Scouting Estimate / Conceptual Estimate
Target Estimate / Approximate Estimate
Order of Magnitude Estimate
Budget Estimate / Check Estimate
Always ask:
What is the purpose of this estimate?
What should be the basis?
What should be the accuracy?
What………..?
What’s in a name?
40

OPEX
Operational Expenditure
(Maintenance costs)
Such as:
Operators
Inspection
Maintenance
Repairs
Modifications
Materials
CAPEX
Capital Expenditure
(Investments costs)
Such as:
Design costs
Purchase costs
Equipment & Materials
Fabrication
Installation
Commissioning
Start-up
41

Basis of Estimate:
Used estimating method
Description of the battery limits
Scope description & Design package
Price level and currency with exchange rates
Location
What is NOT included!
An estimate has no value if one does not know
the basis for the data, the ‘estimating basis’.
43

To maintain order it is necessary to divide costs into categories e.g.:
• Material vs. labour vs. subcontracts
• Direct costs vs. indirect costs vs. home office costs
The control structure should be established as early as possible in
the project
The process of the project’s control structure is an on-going
process requiring updates
Large projects will often use:
• Work breakdown structures (WBS)
• Resource breakdown structures (RBS)
44

Cost elements are divided in three different cost categories, the basic
resources, to provide insight in what makes up cost:
Material: The physical composition of the asset.
Labour: The work needed to complete the activity or asset.
Other: Resources needed to support the activity and/or asset. For
example the facilities needed to produce an activity or asset, which
would include the tooling, electricity, taxes, and maintenance,
necessary to keep the facility available for use.
47

Further structuring the resources is important in order to understand
how they influence the total cost and how they can be controlled:
Direct Costs: Resources that are expended solely to complete the
activity or asset.
Indirect Costs: Resources that need to be expended to support the
activity or asset but that are also associated with other activities and
assets.
Fixed Costs: Cost elements that must be provided independent of
the volume or production that they support.
Variable Costs: Cost elements that must be provided and are
dependent on the volume production that they support.
48

Another of way of classifying costs is using a work breakdown
structure (WBS) (to group cost elements)
The WBS is generally a required project management tool
on most contracts
WBS provides a framework for planning and controlling
the resources needed to perform the technical objectives
WBS facilitates a summary of project data regarding the
cost and schedule performance.
49

Discrete part or product manufacturing refers to the
production of separate, individual products, whereas
continuous manufacturing is concerned with large units
to be futher processed, such as a roll of sheet steel, or
units in fluid form with no distinct shape.
‘
’
50

Ratio of costs between two similar facilities of different capacities equals the
ratio of the capacities multiplied by an exponent:
$B
$A
= (
CapB
CapA
)e
Rewrite to:
$B= $A (
CapB
CapA
)e
Where:
$B = Cost facility being estimated
$A = Known cost similar facility
CapB = Capacity facility being estimated
CapA = Capacity similar facility
e = Exponent or proration factor
51

52
Sometimes called Top-Down estimate is based on
limited Project scope – uses rules of thumb or
parametric models or Historical data bases to provide
relevant cost data – to develop cost per square foot /
m2 for a building or cost for a similar piece of
equipment.
‘
’

Parametric estimating entails the analysis of cost,
programmatic and technical data to identify cost drivers
and develop cost models. The approach essentially
correlates cost and manpower information with
parameters describing the item to be costed. This
process results in sets of formulae known as “Cost
Estimation Relationships”(CERS), which are applied to
produce cost outputs for different elements of an
estimate.
‘
’
53

54
Sometimes called bottom-up. With this method,
detailed estimates are made at relatively low levels in
the work breakdown structure (WBS), typically at work-
package or task level. This approach is closely related to
scheduling, planning and resource allocation and is
both time-consuming and costly. It requires a good
knowledge of the activity and there also needs to be a
reasonable level of definition for the exercise to be
meaningful.
‘
’

Estimating is a mix of:
• Technical terminology
• Tricks
• Common sense
• Experience
Particularly for estimating the experience
component is very important!
55

Project
initiation
note
± 40%
Screening
estimate
Economics
Step 1
Feasibility
study
± 25%
Study
estimate
Economics
Step 2
Development
plan
± 25%
Budget
estimate
Economics
Step 3
initial
execution
plan
Initial
commit.
plan
Basis for
design
Project
specification
± 10%
Control
estimate
commit.
plan
Economics
Step 4
Operations
reference
plan
Project
execution
plan
Detailed
design
Materials
procurement
Construction
Commission.
start-up
handover
Approval Approval
Review
Approval
Review
Approval
Identical
to
Execution
phase
Abandon
project
Commit. &
cost control
Contract
control
Purchase
order control
Reporting
Operations
reference
plan
Close out
Project
debrief
Change
control
± 5%
Counter
estimate
Step 5
Identification phase Definition phase Execution phase
Operational
phase
Abandon
phase
Step 6 Step 7
Identical
to
Execution
phase
56

AACE Cost Estimate Classification System - Process Industries
Primary
Characteristic
Secondary Characteristic
ESTIMATE
CLASS
LEVEL OF
PROJECT
DEFINITION
END
USAGE
METHODOLOGY EXPECTED
ACCURACY
RANGE
PREPARATION
EFFORT
5 0% to 2% concept
screening
capacity factored,
parametric
models, judgment,
or analogy
L: -20% to -50%
H: +30% to + 100%
1
4 1% to 15% study or
feasibility
equipment
factored or
parametric models
L: -15% to -30%
H: +20% to + 50%
2 to 4
3 10% to 40% budget,
authorization or
control
semi-detailed unit
cost with
assembly level line
items
L: -10% to -20%
H: +10% to + 30%
3 to 10
2 30% to 70% control or bid /
tender
detailed unit cost
with forced
detailed take-off
L: -5% to -15%
H: +5% to + 20%
4 to 20
1 50% to 100% check estimate or
bid / tender
detailed unit cost
with detailed take-
off
L: -3% to -10%
H: +3% to + 15%
5 to 100
57

58

The following terms are used within estimating:
• Allowance
• Indirect Cost
• Accuracy
• Contingency
• Escalation
• MOD - Money of the Day
• RT/CVM - Real Term / Constant Value money
59

Allowances are often included in an estimate to account for
the predictable but undefinable costs associated with project
scope. Allowances are most often used when preparing
deterministic or detailed estimates.
Some typical examples of allowances :
Design allowance for engineered equipment
Material take-off allowance
Overbuy allowance
Unrecoverable shipping damage allowance
Allowance for undefined major items
60

Costs not directly attributable to the completion of an activity.
Indirect costs are typically allocated or spread across all activities
on a predetermined basis.
In construction, all costs which do not become a final part of the
installation, but which are required for the orderly completion of
the installation and may include, but are not limited to, field
administration, direct supervision, capital tools, start-up costs,
contractor's fees, insurance, taxes, etc.
In manufacturing, costs not directly assignable to the end
product or process, such as overhead and general purpose labor,
or costs of outside operations, such as transportation and
distribution. Indirect manufacturing cost sometimes includes
insurance, property taxes, maintenance, depreciation, packaging,
warehousing and loading.
61

Accuracy is the degree to which a measurement or
calculation varies to its actual value
Precision is the degree to which a series of
calculated values show similar results
63

Estimate accuracy is an indication of the degree to which
the final actual cost outcome for a given project varies
from its estimated cost
Every estimate is a “prediction” of the expected final cost
of a project for a given scope of work
Every estimate is associated with uncertainty, and
therefore is also associated with a probability of
overrunning or underrunning the predicted cost
64

Available information/Scope:
Construction site data
Design information
Detail information
etc.
65

An estimate should never be regarded as a single point
number (or cost)
An estimate is a range of potential cost outcomes, and
associated probabilities of occurrence
Thus – the accuracy range of an estimate is a probabilistic
assessment of how far a project’s final actual cost can be
expected to vary from the estimate
• The range is driven by uncertainty
66

Estimate Accuracy is traditionally expressed as a +/-
percentage around the point or base estimate with a
stated confidence that the actual cost will fall within this
range
• +/- measures are merely a useful simplification given that
individual projects will have unique frequency distributions
of outcomes
Always ask whether the +/- % range is:
• applied to the point or base estimate (before contingency) ?
• total or reference estimate (including contingency)?
68

The funds which are added to the point estimate to
achieve a given probability of not overrunning the estimate
(given relative stability of the project scope and the
assumptions upon which the estimate is based)
In essence, contingency is an amount of funds to reduce
the chances of overrunning the point estimate to an
acceptable level of risk
• The difference between the selected funding value and
the point estimate is the amount of contingency
• Management must determine the “level”
Does not include Escalation
69

Most misunderstood element in an estimate
An amount used to deal with uncertainties
Required because estimating is not an exact science
Its purpose is to improve the accuracy of project
evaluations
Not to improve the accuracy of an estimate
70

Typically contingency does not include:
Significant changes in scope
Major unexpected work stoppages (strikes, etc.)
Disasters (hurricanes, tornadoes, etc.)
Excessive, unexpected inflation
Excessive, unexpected currency fluctuations
71

72

Table shows a cumulative probability distribution table produced by a typical
risk analysis model. In this example, the original point estimate (before
contingency) is $23.3 million. The point estimate of $23.3M results in a 20
percent probability of not exceeding this value.
If we wanted to achieve a
50 percent probability of
underrun, we would need
to fund the project at $25.4M.
This would mean adding a
contingency amount of $2.1M
in the estimate.
74

Contingency does not increase the overall accuracy of the estimate
Contingency reduces the level of risk associated with the estimate
Risk analysis identifies specific project areas associated with risk and
opportunity
75

Point Estimate $23.3M
Low Range (80% Confidence) $18.5M
High Value (80% Confidence) $32.5M
Estimate Range (before Contingency)
-20% to +40%
Accuracy Range (@ 80% Confidence)
Minimum
Cost
Maximum
Cost
Point
Estimate
$32.5M
(+40%)
$18.5M
(-20%)
C
O
N
T
I
N
G
E
N
C
Y
$23.3M
P50
50 % Chance of Underrun
50 % Chance of Overrun
P10 P90
Relative
Probability
77

Estimate w/Contingency $23.3M
Low Range (80% Confidence) $18.5M
High Value (80% Confidence) $32.5M
Estimate Range (on Estimate w/Contingency)
-27% to +27%
78
Accuracy Range (@ 80% Confidence)
Minimum
Cost
Maximum
Cost
Relative
Probability
(+27%)
(-27%)
C
O
N
T
I
N
G
E
N
C
Y
Estimate
w/Contingency
P50
P10 P90
$18.5M $32.5M
$25.4M

• 10/90 estimate
• 50/50 estimate
• 90/10 estimate
• 90% chance on overrun
• Chance on over- and
underrun are equal
• 10% Chance on overrun
79

Study
Type
C
Class4
90/10
Order of
magnitude
D
Class5
Base
~2-8% ~1-5%
Budget
Type
B
Class3/2
Control
Estimate
Class1
+40%
+10%
-25%
-10%
Base
50/50
Base
10/90
90/10
Zero baseline
Base
90/10
90/10
50/50 Base
Base
80

Profit
Add on as
• Taxes, productivity costs, overtime, and other
adjustments as defined by estimator
83

Money of the day:
The market value of the project at time of
estimate preparation. (No escalation)
Real Term / Constant Value money:
The project value in relation to chosen future
reference point. (M.O.D. + escalation)
84

Measure for changes in current or estimated
prices as a result of inflation.
Forecast of expected price increase.
Necessary in case of spread commitments.
89

Escalation – Provision for an increase in the cost
of equipment, material, labor, etc. over the costs
specified in the contract, due to continuing price-
level changes over time.
Escalation has the same effect on project costs as
interest does on the value of a savings account –
each year becomes a new base for calculating
escalation for the following year.
Escalation is compounded for multiple years.
90

Example: Item costs $1 today, inflation rate of
5%/year for next five years, what will item cost five
years from now?
$1 X 1.05 X 1.05 X 1.05 X 1.05 X 1.05 = 1.28
C1 X (1 + i)n = C2
$1 X (1 + .05)5 = 1.28
91

Example: Project estimated to cost $10M in 2012
dollars, inflation rate = 5% each year.
Cash flow is projected as:
• In 2014: $1,000,000 (2 years escalation)
Calculate escalation!
92

Calculation of Previous Example
2014 = $1M X ((1.05)2 – 1) = $102,500
2015 = $6M X ((1.05)3 – 1) = $945,750
2016 = $3M X ((1.05)4 – 1) = $646,519
Total escalation costs = $1,694,769
93

96

Allocation & Control of Budgets – Resources (Man-hours/
Materials) & Cost
Analysis & Forecasting
Scope Change Management
Preparation of Bid Packages & Evaluation
Ad-Hoc Cost Studies
Cash Flow and Currency Fluctuation Reporting
98

Project
Buyers
Supplier
Requisition
Commitment
= Order or
Contract
Goods or Services
then
Invoice
99

Analysis
Physical Progress
Earned Value
Not just what is SPENT, what is actually ACHIEVED
Forecasting
Commitments & Expenditures
Updated Budgets (Review Scope Changes)
Updated Schedule
Review Process (Engineering Review – Communication)
100

What is our budget?
What have we committed?
What changes have happened?
What changes are likely to happen?
What did we spend?
What have we achieved?
What will we spend?
What is our contingency?
What is the out-turn likely to be?
What is our exposure if the project stops?
101

Start
Introduction
104

Birth of the Cost Engineer
Merchants should seek advise from engineers
Engineers often see their designs too optimistic
The merchants protect themselves by cost experts, and
than it all went a bit wrong!
• medical disabled technicians became Cost Engineers
• technologists saw the Cost Engineers as spoilers
• Cost Engineers could shoot the technologists
• the Cost Engineer is the only engineer who knows that the
outcome of his calculations will be wrong
105

Don’t design a plant with golden valves!
Skip all luxury!
That is the job of Cost Engineers and Value
Engineers
106

The Weekend West
Newspaper Perth, Australia,
February 13-14, 2016
Biggest overrun I have ever
seen Chevron Gorgon:
Original Budget: $US37b
Last Cost Estimate: $US54b
Overrun: $US17b or 45%

Complex projects with budgets greater than $500 million
have a much higher failure rate than their more
straightforward counterparts. In some sectors, up to 75% of
complex projects fail: that is, they exceed their original
budgeted cost or schedule by 25%. This represents a vastly
inadequate return on billions of dollars of investment for
both private enterprise and taxpayers.
Projects fail for many reasons. These include: lack of communication among
stakeholders and participants; critical skills and knowledge gaps for key
personnel; poor conceptual planning; insufficient implementation of project
controls and risk management; and the ineffective transfer of lessons learnt
between similar projects. To increase the success rate of complex projects,
these issues need to be addressed across the whole industry.

365 Mega Projects
(Capex > 1 bnUSD)

1_-_Introduction_to_Total_Cost Management_Workshop.pdf

Percent
That
Achieve
Objective
As Reported by IPA, Inc.

The Cost Engineer is accountable for the quality
the consistency, and the timeliness of the
products resulting from the responsibilities.
These products are primarily the following:
Estimates, plans, schedules, budgets and project
status report.
The quality, consistency and timeliness are
usually formalised in work processes and
procedures
116

Money
Business Case
Process Engineers
Engineering
Quality
Time /
Schedule
Environment
Safety
Cost Engineers
Project Lead
Process
Flow
Datasheets
SubContractors
Health
Regulation
Contractors
Permits
Government
Risk Assessment
Discipline
Engineers

Business
Planning
Feasibility
Planning
Project
Planning
Execution Start-up
Involvement
Process Engineering
Project
Control
Estimating
Project Director Construction
Operations
/Commissioning
Business
Feedback/Learning/Knowledge Engineering
Detailed Engineering
/Procurement

Potential of Decisions to
Influence Value
Potential of Changes to
Destroy Value
Project Life Cycle (Better Scope Definition/Time)
More involvement results in better scope definition

1_-_Introduction_to_Total_Cost Management_Workshop.pdf

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