Election 2008 Analysis

Election 2008 Post-Mortem
November 2008
GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE ● INNOVATIVE RESEARCH ● SUPERIOR RESULTS

324 Second Street, SE
Washington, DC 20003

Office: 202.470.6300

© 2003 – WRS – Confidential
2008

Company Profile

© 2008 Wilson Research Strategies
2

WRS Scope and Objectives for Political Projects
Purpose

• To successfully assist your candidates in measuring voter opinion and developing effectual
messages in order to successfully communicate with voters in the most impactful manner.

Objectives

• To work with campaign team members in a synergistic manner.

• To provide the basis for opinion tracking of key variables as determined by candidates and
conditions.

• To develop a holistic methodology that overcomes the limitations of traditional campaign survey
research.

• To Identify issues and opportunities for candidates to grow support.

• To develop strategies and tactics to allocate resources based on our findings.

• To win on Election Day.

The ultimate goal of any WRS engagement is to successfully assist the
campaign and consulting team in measuring voter opinion and developing
effective messages in order to win by the widest possible margin.

Quantitative Research Services
Benchmark Surveys
This is the first survey of a primary or general election campaign effort. This is ordinarily the longest and most
expensive single survey of a campaign because many issues, variables and potential opponents are tested at once.
We use this type of survey to help develop a long-range campaign plan and the campaign‟s strategy. Benchmark
surveys allow the strategy team to play out possible campaign scenarios within the survey, providing respondents with
incremental bits of information they may learn during a campaign to test their reactions. Information tested can be
both positive and negative and should address your candidacy and your opponents.

Brushfire Surveys
These are shorter surveys oftentimes conducted pre and post-media flights, to gauge the impact of specific media
events or simply to measure campaign progress. Comparing these surveys to a benchmark or previous brushfire
study allows us to identify shifts in opinion both in the aggregate and among key target groups. They are also
excellent method of monitoring the campaign‟s overall strategy. Are we succeeding? Are we failing? Do we need to
adjust the strategy? How effective are our tactics? These are among the many crucial questions brushfire surveys
can answer.

Panelback Surveys
These are separate surveys conducted among the same groups of respondents before and after an event. They are
frequently used to gauge the impact of direct mail or specific media but can also be used to determine pre and post
reactions to events such as debates or a news program.

Tracking Surveys
These are short surveys that are almost exclusively used during the closing weeks of the campaign to monitor the
status of the campaign, develop closing strategy and tactics. Tracking polls can be conducted in short intervals,
usually nightly, with data and analysis available to the client first thing in the morning.


Qualitative Research Services
Traditional Focus Groups
We conduct our own focus groups, or small discussion groups, to probe issues that are difficult to understand through
quantitative methods like surveys. By probing the reasoning and logic of participants, strategists and members of the
communications team are better able to connect with their audience. While not necessarily projectable to a broader
audience, focus groups give insight into the depth of understanding people have of issues, and sometimes uncover
fears and hesitations that remain hidden in surveys.

Remote Interactive Focus Groups
WRS can also conduct remote focus groups through the use of state-of-the-art video conferencing technology and
equipment. This technology allows more observers to witness focus and dial groups first hand without travel or travel
costs. That means there is nothing lost in the translation. Our clients can view their groups and capture all the
nuances and flavor without having to leave town.

Perception Analyzer Group Testing (Dial Groups)
WRS also conducts state-of-the-art video testing (advertisements, promotional videos, news segments, speeches,
debates, etc.), using interactive, hand-held dials for small and large groups. This technology allows WRS to collect
input to the test material from many people at one same time. The dial method permits focus group participants to
register their opinions anonymously, reducing “politically correct” responses that are often heard in-group discussions.
It also allows for group discussion of the tested material, based on the responses. Interactive feedback will alert our
researchers to the parts of the material, which elicit responses that should be probed through discussion.

Dials can also be utilized at debate preparation, in which a complete run-through of a debate is conducted with a
stand-in for the opponent. This will allow the campaign to identify potentially weak responses before the public debate
takes place.


Specialized WRS Research Services
War Gaming
In the age of the blogs, YouTube, and a 24/7 cable TV news cycle, agility and responsiveness to attacks or developing
issues is critical. Wilson Research Strategies is able to test the effectiveness of each response to any potential attack.
Conversely, vulnerabilities and their impact on the opponent can be tested to determine which is the most lethal to his
or her candidacy.

Voter Modeling
Voter Modeling utilizes advanced information management technology for sequencing an individual‟s unique “data
trail” to predict attitudes and behaviors. Voter modeling identifies individual voter targets, across multiple dimensions,
from the most to the least likely to support a particular candidate. This is often referred to as Micro Targeting, but the
technical term is actually voter modeling.

Personality Profiler
Part of the campaign‟s strategy will undoubtedly be to attract so-called “swing voters,” but what is the best way to build
support from this key voter group? The Personality Profiler is a quantitative model that segments voter groups based
on their lifestyle, personality, demographics, and geography to determine the best way to turn these swing voters into
solid supporters.

Online Ad Testing
Research conducted over the internet has the benefits of being cost-effective, scalable to any size universe, and
always available. WRS prides itself in offering clients the most up to date methodologies for internet research,
including web-based surveys to online dial testing. Before spending tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of dollars on a
television buy it is often worth the investment to test those ads (in rough or even final format) online to measure voter
reaction. This can be either qualitative or quantitative depending on sample size and budget.


Chris Wilson – Founder and CEO
Focus
• Chris is widely recognized as one of the world's leading and most credible public opinion research
and research-based strategic consultants. He has conducted thousands of public opinion surveys for
hundreds of candidates, companies and political organizations. Chris specializes in opinion research
geared toward winning campaigns, be they political or corporate, product challenges, public issue
contests or legislative battles. He understands that to win, messages and issues must burn through
the clutter and reach their target audience. Chris is able to identify and overcome obstacles through
targeted communication based on strategically researched solutions. Furthermore, he understands
that research is an evolving science and he utilizes cutting edge techniques in order to stay well
ahead of his competitors.

Pertinent Background & Relationships
• Involved in conducting research for dozens of associations. His work runs the gamut from membership studies to massive public
communication efforts.
• Pioneered the use of research in helping those involved in short-term, crisis management problems.
• Considered one of the country's foremost experts on employee and membership communications, having designed and conducted
the pioneering studies in this area.
• Extensive background in campaign strategy, political media and message development. He has been particularly involved in many
successful political campaigns in the Southern and Midwestern regions. In 1999, Wilson was named a “Mover and Shaker” in
American politics by Campaigns & Elections magazine –a campaign industry publication.
• Past association clients include more than half of those on the Fortune most powerful list.

Credentials
• A frequent lecturer on research, strategy and national trends, Wilson is frequently quoted in such national publications as the
Washington Post, the Washington Times, the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. He is also a regular pundit on MSNBC,
Fox News, CNN, C-SPAN and a contributing author to various trade magazines.
• Graduate of the University of Oklahoma and Georgetown University in Washington, DC.


Scott Migli – Vice President
Focus
• Having worked with Wilson Research Strategies for almost ten years as a client, Scott Migli now
serves as a Vice President of the firm. Scott brings a wealth of experience overseeing research
programs and directing the implementation of polling data in campaigns on the local, state and
national level.
• Scott's experience in the area of designing research plans and implementing research based
strategies makes him a valuable member of the WRS team and a tremendous asset to our political
and corporate clients.

Pertinent Background & Relationships
• Extensive background in campaign strategy, grassroots organizing and message development. Scott has been particularly involved
in many successful political campaigns in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions..
• Scott has worked with associations, corporate leaders and non-profit organizations to to help them express their concerns and
needs to legislators at both the state and federal level, and ensure their needs are heard in regards to legislation,
• Scott has helped many organizations in defining their brand and message to reach new heights in the area of fundraising and
adding new donors to these respective organizations.

Credentials
• During the 2006 election cycle, one of the most difficult for Republican candidates in decades, Scott served as the Executive
Director of the Pennsylvania State Republican Party. Under his leadership Pennsylvania ranked second overall in the United States
for their Victory Program efforts. During his tenure as Executive Director, Scott worked with the Legislature to pass a Voter
Protection Act, which was signed into law by the Democrat Governor of the state.
• Migli‟s past work experience includes Department Liaison to the Leader in the PA House of Representatives, Executive Director of
the NY Assembly Republican Campaign Committee, Director of Member and Regional Services in the New York State Legislature
and campaign manager for numerous candidates on every level.
• Scott has served as a guest speaker for many organizations in the areas of grassroots organizing and successful campaign
planning, and has been the guest on various TV and radio stations throughout the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.


Methodology
Wilson Research Strategies uses Registration Based Sampling (RBS). RBS is an
innovative method of stratifying samples based on a set of demographic and
behavioral characteristics. The sample for many surveys are stratified based on
geography, age, gender, and vote history. This methodology allows us to reduce post-
survey ―weighting‖ which is frequently found in Random Digit Dialing and can reduce
the reliability of survey results.

Respondents are generally screened to ensure that they intended to vote in the
upcoming general elections and were not a member of the media, a political campaign,
or public relations organization.

9

Message Mapping™ Methodology

• Message Mapping™ is a WRS
Agree Believe Care
proprietary tool used to determine • The message’s position • The size of the bubble is • The message’s position
on the Y-axis (vertical) indicative of how on the X-axis (horizontal)
effectiveness of potential measures how much the believable the message is illustrates to what extent
messages by testing the voter agrees with the for voters. support is impacted by
association between respondents‟ statement. • Larger bubbles equate to the message, or how
• The higher the bubble more believable much voters actually care
views and their support choice. appears on the chart, the messages. about a particular
more the voter agrees • While voters may Agree a message.
with it and the more particular message would • Care is calculated by the
effective the message is change their support, if it correlation coefficients
• Messages are represented on in moving respondents’ is unbelievable it will derived through the use
bubble charts, providing an easy support. have limited of bi-variate correlation
effectiveness. matrixes.
to use “map” for further action.

• Bubbles located in the upper right-
hand corner (shaded green) are
the most effective messages.

10

America Is Still a Center-Right Country

11

unchanged in 2008 from previous elections. While ―liberals‖ were up a bit,
this was not a significant change and America is still clearly a center-right
country.
Exit Polls: Ideology
60%

50%
49% 50%
47%
45% 44%
40%

30% 33% 34% 34%
30% 29%

20% 22%
21% 20% 20% 21%

10%

0%
1992 Exit Polls 1996 Exit Polls 2000 Exit Polls 2004 Exit Polls 2008 Exit Polls

Conservative Moderate Liberal

California rejoins every other state other than Massachusetts and
Connecticut after passing a Constitutional amendment banning same
sex marriage.

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%
53%
50% 47%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
California Proposition 8 (Gay Marriage Ban)

Yes No

statutory protections of marriage—the media contention that
somehow America has abandoned traditional values is
obviously false.

14

The next initiative frontier for conservatives may well be in fighting racial and
gender special preferences in higher education and in hiring. Nebraska
passed a ban this year and Colorado narrowly failed to do so.

100%

90%

80%

70%

60% 58%

49% 51%
50%
42%
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Nebraska Initiative 424 (Ban on Affirmative Action) Colorado Amendment 46 (Affirmative Action Ban)

Yes No

Passed ban on affirmative action
Rejected ban on affirmative action
Considering ban in 2010


Despite the McCain campaign’s efforts, Barack Obama was
simply not seen as a liberal by most voters. On the other
hand, John McCain was seen as too far left by a substantial
number of conservatives.

17

Republicans Started this Campaign with
Significant Structural Liabilities

18

While McCain’s inability to draw meaningful distinctions with Obama hurt, the
fact that a majority of Americans thought the country was headed down the
wrong track throughout this cycle was also a liability for Republicans.
All in all, do you think things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that
things are off on the wrong track? (NBC/Wall Street Journal, 11/1-2/08, n=1,011 likely voters)
80%
72%
76%
70% 67% 73% 73%
68%
66%
60% 63%
62%
50% 57% 57% 57%
50% 49% 54%
53% 47% 47%
43% 50% 49% 51%
47% 47%
40% 45%
39% 42% 43%
38% 38% 39% 40%
36% 36%
30% 33% 34%
32% 31% 31%
28% 28%
20% 24% 25%
22%
20% 19%
10% 15% 16%
11% 11%

0%

Right Direction Wrong Track

President Bush’s dismal ratings certainly didn’t help us.
Do you approve or disapprove of the economic bailout plan that was voted on by Congress this past week?
(CBS News, 10/3-5/08, n=957 adults)
90%
82% 82%
80%

70% 74%
62%
66% 66%
60% 64% 55% 63%
60% 60% 61%
56% 49% 50% 57%
50% 54% 54% 47% 48% 48% 54% 53%

45% 46% 47% 46%
40% 44%
41% 42%
40% 40% 39%
36% 35% 35%
30% 33%
30% 30% 31% 31%
27% 27%
20%
20%
10%
12% 13%

0%

Approve Disapprove

And by election day John McCain had not achieved a wholesale
separation from the Bush Administration and its policies.
2008 Exit Polls: If John McCain were elected, would he:
100%

90%
90%
85%

80%

70% Continue A different
Bush's direction
policies 48%
60% 48%

50%

40% No
Response
30% 4%

20%
13%
10% 8%

0%
Different Direction Continue Bush's policies

McCain Obama

From Fundraising to Voter Mobilization:
The Enthusiasm Gap Mattered

22

Would you say your vote is more FOR (Barack Obama/John McCain) or against (John McCain/Barack
Obama)?
(NBC/Wall Street Journal, 11/1-2/08, n=1,011 likely voters)

100%

90%
81%
80%

70%
61%
60%

50%

40%

29%
30%

20%
11%
10%

0%

For Obama Against McCain For McCain Against Obama

2008 Exit Polls: If __________ wins today, what best describes your feels about what he will do as President?

John McCain Barack Obama

Excited
14% Scared
Scared
24% Excited
28%
30%

Optimistic,
not excited Concerned,
32% not scared
Concerned, 20%
Optimistic,
not scared
not excited
25%
24%


Obama’s grass-roots effort on election day. In a closer election
this enthusiasm gap between the bases could have cost us
dearly.

25

Personal contact matters and Obama outperformed
McCain here.

26

This Was In Many Ways a Single-Issue
Election:
The Economy Determined the Outcome

27

What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?
(CBS/New York Times, conducted 10/10-13/08, n=972 registered voters)
70%

60% 63%

55%
50% 52%

40%
39% 39%
37%
30%

20%
20%
17% 15%
16% 10%
10% 9%
10% 7% 14%
9%
9% 7%
7% 6% 6% 7%
5% 3%
0%
October 06 July 07 April 08 July 08 September 08 October 08 Exit Polls

Economy and jobs Gas prices and energy policy Health care War in Iraq
28

Now I'm going to mention a few issues and for each one, please tell me if you think Barack Obama or John
McCain would better handle that issue if they were elected president: The economy
(CNN/Opinion Research, conducted 10/17-19/08, n=746 likely voters)
60%

54% 54% 55%
50% 53% 52% 52%
51%

43% 43% 44% 44%
40% 42% 41%
39%

30%

20%

McCain suspends
campaign for
10%
bailout

0%
4/30 7/29 8/24 8/31 9/7 9/21 10/19

McCain Obama

Gallup Daily Tracking: Presidential Ballot, n=2,747+ adults
60%

50% 48% 47% 48% 53%
51% 51% 52% 51%
50% 49% 49% 50%

45% 45% 45% 46%
43% 44%
40% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42% 42%

DEM GOP
30% Convo Convo

Third Debate/‖Joe the Plumber‖
McCain ―suspends‖ campaign
Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac

20%
Palin/Gibson Interview

―Economy is strong‖
Palin Announcement

Bailout bill passes

Last Two Weeks
Second debate
First debate
10%

0%
8/26-28 9/4-6 9/8-10 9/12-14 9/15-17 9/24-26 9/26-28 10/4-6 10/9-11 10/16-18 10/26-28 11/4
Results

McCain Obama
30

August 25-28: DNC Convention

Obama
+8%

31

August 29: McCain Announces Palin

McCain
+4%

32

September 2-4: GOP Convention

McCain
+8%

33

September 7: Government Takeover of Freddie Mac and
Fannie Mae

McCain
+3%

34

The bailout bill was overwhelmingly opposed by voters. McCain not
only failed in his attempt to lead, he failed on an unpopular issue.
Do you approve or disapprove of the economic bailout plan that was voted on by Congress this past week?
(CBS News, 10/3-5/08, n=947 adults)

Approve 31%

Disapprove 51%

Unsure 18%


The story about McCain and the economy couldn’t be
more clear—the McCain campaign followed the economy
down and never got back up.

36

September 14-16: Merrill Lynch, Lehman Brothers Fail;
McCain declares ―fundamentals of economy are strong‖

Obama
+3%

37

September 24: McCain ―Suspends‖ Campaign

Obama
+5%

38

September 26: First Debate

Obama
+8%

39

October 3: Bailout bill passes

Obama
+9%

40

October 7: 2nd Debate

Obama
+9%

41

October 15: 3nd Debate/‖Joe the Plumber‖

Obama
+10%

42

October 21st – November 5th: Last Two Weeks of the
Campaign

11/05:
Obama (Oct. 19)
+7%

(Oct. 28)

(Oct. 31)


In Congress a Bad Year was Exacerbated by
Bad Apples and Out-of-Touch Incumbents

44

touch with her state and we held Alaska only by the shear force
of it’s Republican lean—and probably due to Sarah Palin being
on the ticket.

Sen. Ted Stevens (Alaska)

After representing Alaska in the
Senate for 40 years, he is
convicted of seven felonies weeks
before the election. Though he
barely won, he faces expulsion
from the Senate.

Sen. Elizabeth Dole (North
Carolina)

Dole, first elected in 2002, barely
visited North Carolina and had tepid
connections to the state to begin with.
Democrat Kay Hagan was able to take
advantage of the positive political
environment to portray Dole as out-of-
touch with North Carolinians.
45

Rep. Rick Renzi (AZ-1)

Renzi was raided by the FBI for land-
swapping deals and crafting legislation
that he and his business partners
personally benefitted from, leading to his
indictment on 35 different counts. While he
was not a candidate for re-election, his
scandals left his district begging for
change.

Rep. Tom Feeney (FL-24)

Tom Feeney was closely connected to
disgraced lobbyist Jack Abramoff, going to
Scotland on a trip Abramoff paid for. In his
re-election campaign, he aired an ad
apologizing for his mistakes, reviving the
issue and leading to his overwhelming
defeat.

46

Rep. Bill Sali (ID-1)

Bill Sali, won a six-way primary with 26%
of the vote in 2006. Since then, he‟s done
little to repair schisms in the local party
and even exacerbated them with his fire-
throwing brand of politics. In 2008, he was
upset by Walt Minnick, who will represent
the most Republican seat held by a
Democrat.

Rep. Marilyn Musgrave (CO-4)

Musgrave became a lightening rod for
cultural warfare while ignoring issues
related to agriculture, higher education
and tourism that provide most of the jobs
in her district. After two close re-
elections, she was defeated in 2006 by
over ten points.

47

Jim Oberweis (IL-14)

Oberweis, a dairy magnate, was an
unsuccessful candidate for U.S. Senate in
2002 and 2004 and for Illinois Governor in
2006. Despite his repeated losses, he won
the Republican nomination for Denny
Hastert‟s seat in a special election in
2008, only to lose that as well, and the
November general election on top of that.

Rep. Tim Walberg (MI-7)

In 2006 Walberg ousted a moderate
incumbent in the primary, but did little to
try to rebuild the local party in the next two
years. After winning the 2006 general by
four points (while out-spending his
opponent 26-to-1), Walberg was a top
target in 2008, attracting a strong
challenger and leading to his defeat to
Mark Schauer.
48

Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13)

Fossella held this Staten Island based
Democratic leaning seat for a decade, until
a DUI arrest led to the revelation of an
extramarital affair and an illegitimate child.
After the death of the replacement
Republican nominee and in-fighting to
determine his successor, Democrat Mike
McMahon ended up winning by thirty
points.
Rep. Virgil Goode (VA-5)

Goode‟s multi-decade career saw him
switch parties from a Democrat to
Independent to Republican. Goode‟s re-
election campaign was damaged by
connections between Goode and a film
about the life and struggles of a young gay
man from his district. Goode was never
able to explain these apparent
connections and, pending a recount, he
appears to have lost narrowly in 2008.
49

Without a Clear Argument for ―Why McCain‖ the
McCain Campaign attempted to destroy
Obama…with limited success.

50

McCain’s onslaught at the end may have persuaded some late-deciding
voters, but those who made up their minds in the voting booth still broke for
Obama.
2008 Exit Polls: When did you decide for whom to vote?
100%
Nationwide
90%

80%

70%

60%
52% 54% 54% 52%
50% 50% 48%
50% 45% 47% 45% 47%
43%
40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Election Day Last Three Days Last Week In October In September Before That
(4%) (3%) (3%) (15%) (14%) (60%)


While McCain did win late deciders in a few states—Missouri and Virginia
most notably—he still didn’t win the late deciders in most swing states as
decisively as he needed to in order to close the margins Obama had built.
2008 Exit Polls: When did you decide for whom to vote?
100%
Voters who decided in the last week of the
90% campaign

80%

70%

59%
60%
54%
50% 50% 49% 50% 49%
50% 48% 47% 47% 47%
43%
41%
40% 38%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Florida Indiana Missouri Nevada North Carolina Ohio Virginia


Breakdown of McCain and Obama’s television ads during the last two months of the campaign.


Positive
26%
Negative
Positive
35%
Negative 39%
47%

Contrast
27%
Contrast
25%


2008 Exit Polls: Did (John McCain/Barack Obama) run a negative campaign?
100%

90%

80%

70%
62%
60%

49%
50% 47%

40%
32%
30%

20%

10%

0%

Did Did Not

What We Learned

o Though both candidates ran negative ads, McCain was perceived as the more
negative candidate because he ran almost exclusively negative ads, and his
underdog status in the polls created the expectation for him to go negative.

o As a results, McCain was not seen as advocating a rationale for his own
candidacy or promoting his biography other than not being Barack Obama.

o Too often, Republicans gravitate towards this strategy of vilifying Democrats
rather than promoting our own candidates, producing exceptionally shoddy results
in 2006 and 2008. We have witnessed more liberal candidates get elected, and
non-conservative Democrats winning in solidly conservative areas.

o Negative campaigning can be effective, but we as a party must offer an affirmative
rationale for our positions or we will continue to face electoral defeat.

55

Our Ever-Shrinking Minority

56

2004 was the high water mark of the Bush/Rove
Republican Party in Congress.

57

Unfortunately, we saw massive losses, particularly in New
England and the Great Lakes region.

58

2008 saw the continuation of the wave, and large gains in
the West and Southwest.

59

Democrats that ran unopposed in 2008
District District District
AL 7 GA 5 OR 4
AR 1 IL 17 OR 1
AR 2 LA 3 PA 14
AR 4 MA 2 TN 6
CA 18 MA 3 TN 8
CA 30 MA 5 TN 9
CA 31 MA 8 TX 9
CA 32 MA 9 TX 16
CA 37 MA 10 VA 3
CA 38 MI 14 VA 9
FL 3 MO 1 VT AL
FL 17 NJ 10 WI 4
FL 20 NY 6 WV 1
GA 4 NY 9

# of unopposed Republicans: 14
60

Democrats in the most Republican districts

District Democrat PVI
ID-01* Walt Minnick R +18.9
TX-17 Chet Edwards R +17.7
UT-02 Jim Matheson R +16.9
MS-04 Gene Taylor R +16.3
AL-02* Bobby Bright R +13.2
ND-AL Earl Pomeroy R +13.1
MO-04 Ike Skelton R +10.8
MS-01* Travis Childers R+ 10.0
SD-AL Stephanie R+ 10.0
Sandlin
* Won in 2008

61

50 States, not 50% +1
 The Democrats have found success running candidates in deep red districts. Even if
they lose one election, they are in a good position in successive cycles if an opportunity
arises. Examples include FL 16 (Mark Foley), ID 1 (Bill Sali), MN 6 (Michelle
Bachmann), and TX 23 (Henry Bonilla).

 Republicans, on the other hand, have played more conservatively, letting many
Democratic incumbents, particularly urban incumbents, go unopposed.

 This mindset doesn‟t just affect individual Congressional races. By operating with a
mindset where we write off a third of country, we shrink our opportunities and enlarge the
Democrat‟s battleground.

62

In 2004 Republicans leveraged the traditional alliance of the west
and the south to win the Presidency.
2004 Electoral Results

63

In 2008 the Democrats made clear inroads into traditionally
Republican territory, winning with a combination of favorable
demographics and successful messages.
2008 Electoral Results (projected)

64

Based on local elections and demographic trends, it is clear that
the Republican party is allowing itself to become isolated and
marginalized as the party of the South.
2012 Electoral Results (projection based on demographic trends and recent local elections)

65

The West continues to boom in population growth while the
Northeast’s growth is largely stagnant, reinforcing the
importance of recapturing the West and Southwest.
Population Growth, through July 2007 (U.S. Census Bureau)

66

Hispanics are currently the highest percentage of the
population in the Southwest.

67

However, as Hispanic population growth increases throughout
the country, especially in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, reaching
out to Hispanics becomes even more of a priority.

68

The Problem
 If the Republican party allows itself to be reduced and marginalized as the opposition
party and the party of the South, it will become the minority party for a generation.

 To prevent this marginalization and retake the west, the party needs to communicate
better with two types of voters:
 Middle class white westerners who have been moving from the Pacific coast to the
Mountain West
 Middle class Hispanic voters

 Without the unifying factor that communism represented, these voters will continue to
drift away from the party, turned away by the party‟s stance on social issues and illegal
immigration.
 While these issues work very well in the South, they are driving away critical voter
groups in the West and in Virginia.
 Terrorism is not going to replace communism as a unifying force for the party.
 American success on this front has pushed the issue to the back of voters
minds.

69

Why Democrats Are Winning
 The Democrats have taken the West and Virginia by offering candidates who promise
common sense conservative solutions.
 Economically trustworthy, pro-gun, anti-Washington establishment candidates should be
Republicans, not Democrats, but these are the issues that Democrats are using to win
the West.

 What is needed is a new language, a new way of communicating with groups that have
traditionally leaned center left, while at the same time not driving away voters in the west
and Virginia that already support Republicans.

70

The Solution

 Most importantly, a convincing and cohesive economic language needs to re-enter the
vocabulary of GOP candidates, officials, and party members.
 McCain‟s inability to speak convincingly on economic issues was a critical
weakness.
 This weakness was fostered by years of corporate bailouts and big
government solutions put forth by Republicans.
 52% of Coloradans thought their state was in a recession.*Ciurli
Associates, Sep 19-23, n=501
 72% of voters in Nevada, Texas, New Mexico, Arizona think good jobs
are hard to find . *ASU-Southwest, Oct 30, n=1200
 41% of Nevadans blamed Republicans for the financial state of Wall
Street, while only 16% blamed Democrats. *Suffolk University, Sept 17-
21, n=600
 Obama had a 10 point lead among registered voters in trust to handle the
economy, and a 23 point lead in understanding America‟s economic
problems. * ABS News/Washington Post, Sep 18-21, n=1001

 McCain‟s inability to talk about, and the Republican lack of credibility on, economic
issues is what lost these states at a variety of levels.

71

Positions and Messaging

72

I am going to read you some statements and please tell me which statement comes closer to how you feel
about that issue and what you would like to see the new President and Congress do in the next few years
(WRS Election Day survey, conducted 11/4/08, n=1,000 voters)
Global Warming
Conservative Position Liberal Position
Some people say that we should begin working Other people say that we should begin working
on the problem of global warming but that with a on the problem of global warming but that with a
struggling economy that could be in a recession struggling economy that could be in a recession
we need flexible goals that will allow us to invest we need flexible goals that will allow us to invest
some now and then do more once the economy some now and then do more once the economy
recovers. recovers.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

73

Global Warming
Some people say with a struggling economy that Other people say that we have done too little to
could be in a recession, it is just too risky to deal with global warming and that now is our
impose new laws dealing with global warming chance to take immediate action on the problem.
right now. They say that instead we should work They say that we should act immediately to pass
to solve global warming by investing in new new laws and regulations to limit the amount of
technologies that will reduce emissions and greenhouse gases that are emitted in the U.S.
create more American jobs in the process.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 56%
50%
40% 36%
30%
20%
10%
0%

74

Oil Drilling
Some people say that America needs to produce Other people say the solution to our energy
more of its own oil and natural gas by opening problems is not more drilling which will hurt the
more areas, including offshore areas, to environment and enrich oil companies. They say
exploration and drilling. They say we need to we should focus all of our efforts on renewable
have cheap reliable energy here at home by energy like wind and solar power.
combining more domestic energy production with
increased use of renewable resources like wind
and solar power.
100%
90%
80%
70%
58%
60%
50%
40% 37%
30%
20%
10%
0%

75

Oil Drilling
Some people say that America needs to produce Other people say the solution to our energy
more of its own oil and natural gas by opening problems is not more drilling which will hurt the
more areas, including offshore areas, to environment and enrich oil companies. They say
exploration and drilling. They say we need to we should focus all of our efforts on renewable
reduce the amount of energy we are forced to energy like wind and solar power.
import from unfriendly foreign governments by
combining more domestic energy production with
increased use of renewable resources like wind
and solar power.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 51%
50% 45%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

76

Gov‟t Spending
Some people say that the government takes too Other people say that we need to expand
much in taxes to pay for spending on things that government programs to help with things like
the private sector could do better. They say that expanding access to health care and affordable
government should stop trying to do too much health insurance, finding solutions to problems
and we should cut taxes so American families like global warming, providing oversight of Wall
could keep more of what they earn. Street and financial companies to prevent
another credit crisis.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 53%
50%
39%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

77

Gov‟t Spending
Some people say that the budget deficit and Other people say that we need to expand
national debt are major threats to our economy. government programs to help with things like
They say we need to cut wasteful government expanding access to health care and affordable
spending to balance the budget and help save health insurance, finding solutions to problems
the economy. They say that too many like global warming, providing oversight of Wall
government programs intrude in the lives of hard Street and financial companies to prevent
working every day people or provide special another credit crisis.
benefits to just a few individuals and that we
should eliminate these special benefits and
intrusive regulations.
100%

80%

60%
49% 45%
40%

20%

0%

78

Social Issues
Some people say that government should do Other people say government should do more to
more to protect traditional values by protecting protect civil rights by helping to protect the rights
marriage as between one man and one of homosexual couples to get the same benefits
woman, defending the right to life, and defending as other couples, protecting a woman‟s right to
religion against secularism. chose and helping to enforce the separation
between church and state.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 53%
50%
38%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

79

Social Issues
Some people say that government should not be Other people say government should do more to
in the business of extending special privileges to protect civil rights by helping to protect the rights
various groups. The say that the federal of homosexual couples to get the same benefits
government should not be involved in defining as other couples, protecting a woman‟s right to
marriage or in telling people where they can or chose and helping to enforce the separation
cannot pray or practice their religion and that the between church and state.
family and religion will be strong as long as
government stops doing things that hurt them.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 54%
50%
39%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

80

Foreign Policy
Some people say that fighting terrorists in places Other people say that we need a new foreign
like Afghanistan and Iraq is better than having policy that brings our troops home from Iraq and
them attack us here at home. They say we Afghanistan and rebuilds our relationships with
should reach out to our allies around the world as allies around the world. They say we need to
part of our fight against terrorists, but that no focus our attention on capturing terrorists instead
other country should ever be allowed to keep our of on overthrowing governments. They say we
government from keeping its citizens safe. need to use diplomacy and alliances to limit the
danger from countries like Iran and North Korea.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 52%
50% 41%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

81

Foreign Policy
Some people say that we need to be aggressive Other people say that we need a new foreign
in fighting terrorists both overseas and here at policy that brings our troops home from Iraq and
home, but that we shouldn‟t be involved in nation Afghanistan and rebuilds our relationships with
building that keeps our troops in dangerous allies around the world. They say we need to
areas for years. They say we need to combine focus our attention on capturing terrorists instead
strong diplomacy to stop other countries from of on overthrowing governments. They say we
supporting the terrorists with a willingness to act need to use diplomacy and alliances to limit the
decisively and defeat terrorists anywhere we find danger from countries like Iran and North Korea.
them.
100%
90%
80%
70%
60% 55%
50%
38%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

82

All Indepen- Swing Ticket
Voters dents States Splitters
Flexible goals for Global Warming

GW-Technological Solution

Cheap reliable domestic energy

Domestic energy (national security)

Taxes and spending too high

Cut wasteful spending

Protect traditional values

No special privileges for anyone

Fight them there so we’re safe here

Fight terrorism but no nation-building

83

National Summary

84

National Summary
 Text

85

Trends in Pennsylvania

86

Counties Gaining Counties Losing
Population Population

Small Gain  Large Gain Small Loss  Large Loss

87

Presidential Vote Changes

Better Republican Performance  Better Democratic Performance

*The margin of change between Bush performance and McCain performance and Kerry performance and
Obama performance by county.

88

State Legislature Gaines by Party

Republican Gains  Democratic Gains

89

Pennsylvania Summary
 Overall, Republican performance has improved at the presidential level in the
southwest, while Democratic performance has improved in all other parts of the
state, especially the southeast

 This is particularly troubling since current population trends show the southwest is losing
population, while the southeast is gaining population.

 Ten seats changed hands in the State House in 2008, and one in the State Senate.
Three of the four Republican house pickups and the senate pickup were in the
southwest. Likewise, most of the Democratic gains were in the southeast.

 Tom Corbett‟s victory indicates that Republicans can still be competitive statewide.
However, we must improve our performance in the southeast. We cannot expect
continued improvement in western Pennsylvania to compensate for declining Republican
numbers in the Philadelphia suburbs.

90

Two Republican victories in the Southeast
Frank Farry (HD-142)

Local Fire Chief Frank Farry defeated first-
term Democratic Rep. Chris King with a
campaign focused on reform and
economic development. Farry was the
only Republican to defeat a Democratic
incumbent in Southeastern Pennsylvania.

Nick Miccarelli (HD-162)

Nick Miccarelli, an Iraq war veteran and
former Chief of Staff to Rep. Ron
Raymond, won a Democratic-trending
district by a margin of fifteen
points, running on strengthening the local
economy and providing solid constituent
services.

91

Moving forward in Pennsylvania
 Republicans can still be competitive in southeast Pennsylvania when we run strong
candidates with ties to the community who focus on fiscal responsibility and solutions for
the economy

 Social conservatism, while popular in the „T‟ and in parts of the southwest, will not help
us with voters in the southeast. Fiscal conservatism and a focus on the economy must
be our strategy moving forward if we would like to make gains in areas that have trended
away from Republicans in recent years.

 It is not enough to simply defend the seats we already have in the southeast. We should
actively target Democratic incumbents in the Philadelphia suburbs. If we do not, then
our gains in the southwest will not be sufficient to prevent continued losses at the state
level.

92

For additional information about this data please feel free to contact:

Chris Wilson
CEO & Founder
CWilson@w-r-s.com

202.470.6300

© 2003 – WRS – Confidential

Election 2008 Analysis

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