2011.9 Ternary Computing for a Human-Cyber-Physical Universe.ppt
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2011.9 Ternary Computing for a Human-Cyber-Physical Universe.ppt
2011.9 Ternary Computing for a Human-Cyber-Physical Universe.ppt
- 1. Ternary Computing for a Human-Cyber-Physical Universe Zhiwei Xu Institute of Computing Technology www.ict.ac.cn zxu@ict.ac.cn INSTITUTE OF COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY NSF Workshop 2011.9.19-20
- 2. The FIT Initiative of Chinese Academy of Sciences • One of the seven Frontier Research Projects • Bio, Space, Earth, Climate, Fission, Coal, IT – Future Information Technology utilizing human-cyber- physical resources (ternary computing) • A 10-year basic research project – Targeting applications and markets of 2020-2030 – Addressing China’s needs in 2020-2050 • Main components: – functional sensing – customizable internet – cloud-sea computing – science of information ecosystems
- 3. China’s Needs (2020-2050) • Change into sustainable development with the four simultaneous, historical constrains of – globalization, industrialization, urbanization, informatization, • Need computing for the masses, ternary computing Z. Xu and G. Li, Computing for the masses, Communications of ACM, October 2011,vol. 54, no. 10, pp.133-141. GDP% 1st 2nd 3rd 1993 19.5 46.6 33.9 2010 10.2 46.8 43.0 2050 5.8 42.5 51.7 The industry sector will dominate the national economy for decades The urbanization rate will increase from 49.7% in 2010 to 80.0% in 2050 The IT market will increase from $0.15T, 400M users in 2010 to $2T, 1.2B users in 2050
- 4. Example: Industrialization • >200 million migrate workers in China • 2010 China furniture industry: $140B • Manufacturing equipment: 50% cost of is IT – Needs smart equipment: current 3% 40% • Expertise-enabled Computer Numeric Control (E2 CNC) – Expertise: domain knowledge, professional experience, know-how Polish Machine Smart curve saw: 25 meters/minute 0.1 0.05 mm saved 6 KW power
- 5. Example: Urbanization • >200 million households in urban China, >4 million added every year – Need IT to help popularize a sustainable life style • Electricity consumption by Beijing households in 2008: – 11.63 billion KWH, 16.7% of the total electricity consumption – Per-household KWH: 15000 (high), 1200 (low), 600 (green), 1320 (policy) • China’s CO2 emission (tons) in 2008: – 5.96 billion (total), 4.5 (per capita), 2.7 (household), 0.96 (green household) • Grid search and behavior optimization Timely acquire massive and accurate field data from 100s millions households, for each appliance (lamp, refrigerator, etc.) in every household. with one sensor per home Electricity Computing: let the physical world do the job
- 6. Example: Informatization • 485 million netizens in China now (CNNIC, 2011.7) • An Internet C2C service (Taobao, cf. eBay) – 2010: >200M users (80M UV), >2.5M vendors (>50% women), 2B items – $59B GMV (2.5% of $2.35T), 10M items delivered/day, ~$16/item – 2014 (estimation): $300B GMV, 32B items (merchandise & services) • Increase delivered value (or value/item) at low cost – Human-aided big data mining & analytics (20PB 200PB) – Big data augmented C2B – Better platforms: 1 week 3 months data; response 2.6 1.1s Historic Data and Projections IT Market ($ Trillion) IT Market CAGR IT Users (Million) IT Spending per Capita 2000 (Actual Data) 0.026 25.0% 22.5 $21 2008 (Actual Data) 0.11 12.7% 270 $85 2050 (Poverty Line Growth) 0.25 2.0% 1,200 $190 2050 (Value-Augmenting Growth) 2.0 7.1% 1,200 $1,321 Alexa Top Sites 1. Google 2. Facebook 3. YouTube 4. Yahoo! 5. Baidu 6. Wikipedia 7. Blogger 8. Windows Live 9. Twitter 10. QQ 16. Taobao 17. Sina 21. eBay
- 7. 1960-2000 vs. 2010-2050 Algorithmic Science New Information Science • Man-machine symbiosis Ternary Universe (The Net) • The scope and objects of computer science are changing – Cyber Computing Ternary Computing – Turing algorithmic science algorithm Net science – Moore’s law Network Effects
- 8. Example of Utilizing Ternary Resources Human Society Cyber world Physical World Bill Human meter reading 15 bytes/month electrical appliances physical behavior of using electricity 15 GB/month 200 million families’ Electricity consumption behavior （ habits, economic incentives, social relationship ） Automatically sense human society and physical world Search optimal behavior of electricity consumption Promote best practices of energy consumption Energy Saving: In 2009, an average household in China consumed 1044 KWH But a green households in Beijing only consumed 600 KWH By 2030, household electricity consumption could be reduced by 30% through sensing and promoting green practices Upgrading Household Appliances: New energy-saving appliances as data-intensive as Rolls-Royce aircraft engines
- 9. • Professional challenges – The DARPA Red Balloon Challenge requires integrating Human-Cyber resources • Major research initiatives – EU FET Flagships proposals (e.g., FuturICT) involve ternary integration • Specific research results – ReCAPTCHA utilizes Human-Cyber resources – SignalGuru utilizes Human-Cyber- Physical resources Ternary Computing Research Is Starting
- 10. Connectivity and Integration of People, Machines, Things Connectivity Seamless Connected Disjoint None Digital Information Functional (behavior, cognition) Integration Level Red Balloon SignalGuru ReCAPTCHA Grid Search FIT Scope Traditional Turing Computing
- 11. Capability Upgrade through FIT Innovations Information Technology Material Device Equipment System Acquisition Transmission Processing Application Informationization Capability Informationization Physical parameter sensing Best-effort packet switched networks Cloud computing handling PB scale (1015 bytes) of data Internets of Things, Media, Services (100s million users, billion hosts) Function sensing of physical world and human society Evolvable internet with end-to-end quality assurance Sea-cloud computing handling ZB scale (1021 bytes) of data Pervasive intelligent services with Human-Cyber-Physical integration (billions of users, trillions of devices) FIT Innovations Addressing constraints of power and security
- 12. Speed, power, software complexity trends the Three 100-million issues 2020 Exaflops (1018 ) Datacenter for 100’s M (108 ) users 100 M (108 ) LOC 100 M (108 ) W Needs: Maintain growth in performance, but control power & system software complexity World Top1 computer speed (Flops) ICT computer speed (Flops) ICT computer system software (LOC) ICT computer power (W)
- 13. Functional Sensing • Compressive Sensing • Eliminating redundant data in the data acquisition phase (A-to-D A-to-I) • Functional Sensing – From sensing physical parameters, sensing information, to sensing behavior • Function: formalized cognition or behavior – Learn from biological perception networks • Goal: further reduce sensed data amount by 1~2 orders of magnitude Functional Sensing Cognition information Behavior Information reduction
- 14. Customizable Internet • Main features – Extend endpoints to physical devices and people – Programmability, isolation (slices), high performance – Behavior cognition and cross-layer optimization • 2010-2015: – Enable research (host-oriented, content-centric, etc.) – basic research and testbed experiments PEARL routers in one physical network PEARL routers in one physical network Each PEARL routers provides 4 Gbps ports and customizable data/ctrl planes, Each PEARL routers provides 4 Gbps ports and customizable data/ctrl planes, and support 128 virtual routers and support 128 virtual routers IPv4 IPv4 IPv6 IPv6 Non-IP Non-IP G. Xie et al, “PEARL: A Programmable Virtual Router Platform”, IEEE Communication, July 2011
- 15. Cloud-Sea Computing • Sea Computing – A new computing model – hierarchically self-organizing resources of front-end nodes – to generate local intelligence – to perform 90% sensing data processing – There will be many sea terminals • Sea-Cloud Computing – Cooperatively divide and schedule computing tasks at the sea side and the cloud side – Big data processing and massive serving are carried out in the cloud • Optimize performance/energy ratio
- 16. Ecosystems Science User Experience Service Application Middleware System Software Machines Components 1955-1980 Vertical 1980-2005 Horizontal 2005-2030 End-to-end ecosystems IBM DEC …… EDS, Andersen, … MS Office, SAP, … Oracle, BEA, … Windows, Unix, … HP, Cisco, Dell, … Intel, Seagate, … IBM, Accenture, … MS Office, SAP, … Oracle, BEA, LAMP, … Android, Windows, Linux… HP, Cisco, Lenovo, … Intel, ARM, Seagate, … Apple Facebook Google Tencent Smart grid, public safety, intelligent traffic systems, etc. Value in productivity, sustainability, welfare and well-being Functional sensing, customizable internet, sea-cloud computing systems FIT architecture, ternary computing models, security and privacy Phenomena, metrics, laws, abstractions, mechanisms Time/space complexity Energy complexity; effort complexity, sensor complexity Physical Information Media Information Social Information Applications (IIS) Systems (CNS) Foundation (CCF)
- 17. Open Problems • What are the new workloads? – “real” workloads open to academic community • What should be the new metrics? – Beyond Linpack and flop/s – Can we calculate energy complexity for each application? • What is a good stack? – What new properties? How to evaluate a stack? • How to deal with the “Classis Insecta Paradox”? – Current IT: mammals (5000 species) – Future IT: insects (5 million species)
- 18. New Systems Architectures • Need computing systems enabling – personalization, specialty, and large volume • Learn from IBM 360 in 1964 – Computer family and computer architecture • To deal with the “Classis Insecta Paradox”, we propose – Computer tribe – Elastic processor Q. Guo, T. Chen, Y. Chen, Z. Zhou, W Hu, Z. Xu, Effective and Efficient Microprocessor Design Space Exploration Using Unlabeled Design Configurations, IJCAI 2011.
- 19. Current chip design solutions • Has user definable microarchitecture that can be changed dynamically to adapt to applications’ requirements • 2 orders of magnitude improvement in power efficiency ASIC Hardwired solution GPP Software solution Elastic Processor Flexibility MOPS/mW FPGA Field and gate- level reconfiguratio n Elastic Processor Many US scientists are researching similar issues NSF Expedition project: Customizable Domain- Specific Computing www.cdsc.ucla.edu GreenDroid at UCSD Utilization wall Conservation cores IEEE Micro, 3/4 2011
Editor's Notes
- #9: The European Future Emergent Technology (FET) initiative aims to funding at least 2 Flagships projects of information technology from 2013 to 2023, each with €1 billion.