![Trust: Results show it is working…
Trust: “Safe place to shop”
Improving
H2 ‟09 H2 ‟10 trust on eBay
67%
66%
63%
58%
Best in Best in
Class Class
Top buyers Top buyers
Based on surveys conducted by eBay and a Third Party vendor;
survey question :“[company‟s site] is a safe place to shop online”
13
1](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/ebay2011analystdayfinal2-110214093201-phpapp01/85/2011-eBay-131-320.jpg)
2011 eBay三年规划
- 1. Welcome to eBay‟s 2011 Analyst Day Jennifer Ceran Vice President Investor Relations and Financial Planning & Analysis February 10, 2011
- 2. Forward-Looking Statement This presentation contains non-GAAP measures relating to the company's performance. You can find the reconciliation of those measures to the nearest comparable GAAP measures in the appendix at the end of this presentation. This presentation includes forward-looking statements relating to our future performance that are based on our current expectations, forecasts and assumptions and involve risks and uncertainties. These statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding expected future performance (including, without limitation, projected financial and operating results for the company and its Marketplaces and PayPal businesses), business strategy and plans, as well as anticipated developments concerning our business and industry. Our actual results may differ materially from those discussed in these presentation for a variety of reasons, including, but not limited to, the after effects of the global economic downturn; changes in political, business, and economic conditions; foreign exchange rate fluctuations; the impact and integration of recent and future acquisitions; our increasing need to grow revenues from existing users in established markets; an increasingly competitive environment for our businesses; the complexity of managing an increasingly large enterprise, with a broad range of businesses; our need to manage regulatory, tax, IP and litigation risks (including risks specific to PayPal, Bill Me Later and the financial industry); and our need to upgrade our technology and customer service infrastructure at reasonable cost while adding new features and maintaining site stability. This presentation also contains product demonstrations, some of which are conceptual and may not be developed or launched in the same form, with all of the same features or at all. You can find more information about factors that could affect our operating results in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K and our subsequent quarterly reports on Form 10-Q (available at http://investor.ebayinc.com). You should not rely on any forward-looking statements, and we assume no obligation to update them. All information in the presentation is as of February 10, 2011, and we do not intend, and undertake no duty, to update this presentation.
- 3. Agenda Presenters Title Jenny Ceran “Welcome and Today’s Agenda” “eBay and the Changing Commerce John Donahoe Landscape” Scott Thompson, Ed Eger, “The Future of Payments is Now” Sam Shrauger Break John Donahoe, Mark Carges, Doug McCallum, “Reinventing the Shopping Experience” Christopher Payne Lunch “Capitalizing on our Opportunities Bob Swan …3 Yr Outlook” Senior Management “Question and Answer”
- 5. Two years ago A “different” eBay
- 6. The future An inflection point…
- 7. 4 trends shape how consumers shop and pay Mobile Local Digital Social
- 8. Traditional boundaries are blurring Online Offline world world Mobile
- 9. Consumers have a “store in their pocket” Promotions & Loyalty coupons Mobile Self-scanning eCommerce & self-checkout Payment In-store price comparison Store location Shopping lists
- 10. “New retail” demands new ways to reach consumers Sole proprietors Small and medium size businesses Large merchants
- 11. Merchants of all sizes must reach buyers in new ways and keep up with innovation Sole proprietors Multi- Millions of channel buyers Small and medium size businesses Global Pace of competition innovation Large merchants
- 12. Huge opportunity: Taking the “e” out of ecommerce Yesterday Today Tomorrow Online Online 4% 6% Web- Online influenced + Offline offline Offline 37% Offline 96% 2008 = $325B 2013 = $10T Source: Forrester, Euromonitor and Economist Source: Forrester Source: Economist Intelligence Unit Intelligence Unit
- 13. The new retail future: our unique position eBay PayPal Classifieds Shopping.com Mobile Apps Buyers Sellers StubHub
- 14. Connected with consumers wherever they are At home On-the-go Everywhere
- 15. Our merchant footprint is expanding Consumer Small Big brands Sellers business Offline retail online
- 16. And our platform assets can enable new opportunities Buyers Sellers eBay Platform Developers
- 17. The Next Generation of Commerce Leadership
- 18. PayPal Advantages Unmatched competitive advantages Significant runway in the core Expanded opportunity ahead
- 19. Marketplaces Advantages Turning the corner Technology-led innovation Sustainable, profitable growth
- 20. eBay Inc. Advantages Synergies with two strong cores Accelerating innovation Expanding opportunity set through open commerce platform
- 21. Playing offense in new commerce landscape
- 22. The Future of Payments is Now Scott Thompson President, PayPal February 10, 2011
- 23. The evolving PayPal story Unmatched competitive advantages Significant runway in core business Expanding opportunity ahead 23
- 24. On track to meet 2009 Analyst Day forecasts 2011 Revenue 2011 Segment Margin $4.0-5.0 $4.2+ Exceed 18-20% Billion Billion range 2009 Current 2009 Current Analyst Day Trajectory1 Analyst Day Trajectory1 Forecast Forecast 1. Trajectory based on performance through 2010 24
- 25. Growth in Total Payment Volume (TPV) TPV growing 3.0 times faster than online market1 $60 $72 $92 Billion Billion Billion 2008 2009 2010 1. Online market growth based on 12 countries (US, CA, AU, UK, DE, FR, IT, NL, ES, AT, BE, CH) using Forrester online retail and travel estimates 25
- 26. Growth in accounts and engagement Active accounts1 Transactions per In millions active consumer account2 70 81 94 11.5 12.2 13.5 2008 2009 2010 2008 2009 2010 1. As of December 31 2. Trailing 12 months 26
- 27. Growth in global presence Total Payment Volume New active accounts % of PayPal global total % of PayPal global total United 45% 42% 64% 59% States 55% 58% International 36% 41% 2008 2010 2008 2010 27
- 28. Transforming commerce online Global Internet Financial Companies Networks 28
- 29. Unmatched advantages What we said at Analyst Day 2009 Internet Fraud technology expertise Closed-loop Global data connections 29
- 30. Unmatched advantages Where we are today Pace of innovation Internet Fraud technology expertise Open Cross-border platform business Closed-loop Global data connections Digital wallet 30
- 31. Operating successfully in a regulated environment globally • Support for 190 markets, 24 currencies and 20 local language sites • Global connections to 15K+ bank partners and 57 financial networks 31
- 32. PayPal‟s position in the ecosystem Financial Internet institutions companies Payment Telcos startups 32
- 33. Delivering greater value to consumers Multi-channel payments Credit / Loyalty benefits Bill Me Later Payment flexibility Global markets Security Buyer protection 33
- 34. Delivering greater value to merchants Multi-channel payments Marketing / Cross border promotions Higher conversion Less expensive & sales Ease of online selling 34
- 35. Favorable global trends $630B $415B • Over 50% of Internet users Global online retail sales1 are in developing countries3 • eCommerce is 6% of retail sales in the United States3 2.1B • 35% of consumers in Western Europe will have mobile 1.7B Global internet internet access by 20133 users2 2010 2013E 1. Forrester and Euromonitor; excludes food/grocery and online travel 2. Forrester; 2010 & 2013 data is straight-lined from Forrester 2009 & 2014 estimates 3. Forrester 35
- 36. ~50 billion connected devices globally in 20201 Mobile phones Televisions Video game systems eReaders Navigation systems Appliances Computers Tablets 1. Ericsson forecast
- 37. ~50 billion connected devices globally in 20201 Mobile phones Televisions Video game systems eReaders ubiquitous Navigation systems digital wallet Appliances Computers Tablets PayPal seeks to enable payments across devices and channels 1. Ericsson forecast
- 38. Lines are blurring between online & offline Online Offline ubiquitous digital wallet Mobile 38
- 39. Connected devices will unlock retail sales 2010 Global Retail Sales1 $8+ Trillion Just 1% of global retail sales is $80B+ in TPV 1. Economist Intelligence Unit excluding food/grocery 39
- 40. How we will achieve our vision Global Marketplaces Global Adjacencies Merchant & Seeds Services 40
- 41. Continued strength in core business Marketplaces Merchant Services 41
- 42. Success across merchants & consumers PayPal global share1 Key metrics 2008 2010 Active sellers 8M 9M Merchant 18% Active coverage 2010 accounts2 70M 94M Transactions / 14% active consumer 11.5 13.5 2008 account3 Consumer preference 1. Calculated based on 12 countries (US, CA, AU, UK, DE, FR, IT, NL, ES, AT, BE, CH) using Forrester online retail and travel estimates; not to scale; excludes Bill Me Later 2. As of December 31 3. Trailing 12 months 42
- 43. PayPal‟s virtuous cycle Global eCommerce growth Merchant coverage Increased Increased merchant consumer coverage and engagement penetration Consumer preference 43
- 44. Continued strength in core business Global eCommerce growth Increased Increased merchant consumer coverage and engagement penetration 44
- 45. Powerful partnership with eBay 45
- 46. Penetration growing on eBay PayPal penetration eBay Addressable GMV & on eBay globally (%) PayPal penetration 2010 $25B $19B 58% 69% 75-80% 85% 57% 2008 2010 2013E United States International 46
- 47. Merchant Services gaining volume & share Merchant Services TPV and % of total TPV1 62% 56% 49% 42% $125B+ 35% 30% $56B $40B $30B $12B $20B $8B 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013E 1. Excludes Bill Me Later 47
- 48. Success across merchant segments Share of PayPal Sole proprietors merchant accounts1 Small / medium businesses Share of Global Large merchants eCommerce1 1. Illustrative representation of size 48
- 49. Delivering value for all merchants Merchant segment PayPal value to segment Sole proprietors • Ease of getting and selling online Small / medium • All-in-one solution businesses • Competitive pricing • Fraud detection • More payment options Large merchants • Multi-channel payments • Higher conversion rates 49
- 50. Better PayPal integration drives volume 50
- 51. Serving the world‟s largest brands PayPal # of top 100 PayPal large merchants online merchants1 United 59 States Retail United 40 Kingdom Germany 30 France 28 Travel Australia 63 1. Internal analysis; United States count includes both PayPal and Bill Me Later merchants 51
- 52. Expanding our global footprint Countries with increased local merchant services presence in 2010-2011 Denmark Sweden Norway Turkey Malaysia Israel Mexico Brazil Singapore 52
- 53. Connecting sellers and buyers globally Global Cross Border TPV $14B $17B $22B $40-45B 2008 2009 2010 2013E 53
- 54. Continued strength in core business Global eCommerce growth Increased Increased merchant consumer coverage and engagement penetration 54
- 55. Engagement drives the business Active accounts1 Transactions per In millions active consumer account2 94 130+ 13.5 16.5+ 2010 2013E 2010 2013E 1. As of December 31 2. Trailing 12 months 55
- 56. Improving engagement for consumers • Specialized customer support New to PayPal team for new members • Updated online tools • Growing coverage where our Casual users consumers shop • Offering Bill Me Later credit during checkout • Dedicated customer support with “white glove” service Highly engaged • Product investment • PayPal Advantage program 56
- 57. Rewarding our engaged consumers 57
- 58. Increasing value to consumers Fill up your cart Checkout using Bill Me Later Receive your Bill … Later Bill Me Later provides credit to consumers during checkout Helps merchants drive sales and increase conversion Helps PayPal drive consumer engagement and preference 58
- 59. Bill Me Later engaging eBay consumers Lift on eBay average order Source of new Bill Me value when paid with Bill Later accounts1 Me Later2 40% +25% Accounts 60% opened on-eBay Accounts opened off-eBay 1. Q4 2010 2. Q4 2010; includes shipping and handling 59
- 60. Driving the core business Merchant Coverage Consumer Engagement • Penetrating eBay globally • Rewarding engaged consumers • Strengthening relationships with • Increasing value delivered to all merchant segments consumers • Expanding our global footprint • Engaging eBay consumers with Bill Me Later • Growing cross-border trade • Moving into new verticals 60
- 61. Significant runway in core business PayPal global share1 20-24% 2013E 18% Merchant 2010 coverage 14% 2008 Consumer preference 1. Calculated based on 12 countries (US, CA, AU, UK, DE, FR, IT, NL, ES, AT, BE, CH) using Forrester online retail and travel estimates; not to scale; excludes Bill Me Later Source: Internal PayPal analysis, not to scale 61
- 62. Expanding our business through innovation Adjacencies Seeds 62
- 63. The adjacent opportunities are immense Point of sale1 2010 Global Market Size ~$8T+ Credit2 ~$5T+ Mobile Payments3 Digital ~$180B Goods4 ~$20B 1. Economist Intelligence Unit excluding food/grocery 2. Nilson Report 3. Juniper Research 4. GigaOm 63
- 64. Bill Me Later (BML) synergies • Improve customer economics • Lower BML fraud losses • Lower BML cost of capital • Increase merchant coverage and speed up merchant sales cycle • Increase consumer engagement and preference 64
- 65. BML increases spending & engagement Average spend per Number of “engaged” consumer after signing consumers after signing up up for Bill Me Later1 for Bill Me Later1 +124% +76% 1. Internal analysis on multiple tests groups each consisting of 5-10K US consumers who signed up for Bill Me Later in July 2010; Engaged defined as 13+ trxns in trailing 12 mos 65
- 66. Continue to grow Bill Me Later Total Payment Volume for Bill Me Later $1.3B $0.9B 2008 2010 66
- 67. Evolving key capabilities to accelerate growth Proprietary Data Superior Insight Incremental Growth PayPal & eBay Data Merchant Risk Modeling Underwriting History Credit Engine Decision Score Transaction Details 67
- 68. Global launch of Digital Goods platform Digital Goods platform is a payment solution for digital media (e.g. games, software, video, music, news, eBooks) $3.4B in PayPal Digital Goods TPV in 2010, up over 50% year-over-year 17 countries launched the new “PayPal for Digital Goods” product, with key merchants such as Facebook 68
- 69. Enabling new monetization models 69
- 70. Rapid growth of mobile PayPal Mobile TPV In millions $2,000+ $750 $140 $25 2008 2009 2010 2011E 70
- 71. Key priorities to accelerate mobile growth Expand mCommerce products and market share Increase global coverage Availability across technologies and platforms Evolve the mobile wallet 71
- 72. Driving innovation through open platform Accelerating internal innovation • Foundation for new products, services, and markets • Increased responsiveness to market developments PayPal payments platform Enabling external innovation • Global open payment platform • Thousands of engaged developers • Innovative solutions for changing payments landscape 72
- 73. Lines are blurring between online & offline Online Offline world world Mobile 73
- 74. PayPal powers the digital wallet Traditional wallet Financial Ubiquitous flexibility & access across control channels Financial connections among individuals, groups & businesses 74
- 75. How we will achieve our vision Global Marketplaces Global Adjacencies Merchant & Seeds Services 75
- 76. An incredible future Rapidly growing addressable market Unmatched competitive advantages Continued strength in core business Expanding our business through innovation 76
- 77. The world’s favorite way to pay and be paid 77
- 79. Reinventing the Shopping Experience John Donahoe President and Chief Executive Officer, eBay Inc. February 10, 2011 79
- 80. What we said in March 2009 … Transforming our Marketplace... Fixing the foundation Focusing where we can win… Secondary market Growing our complementary formats
- 81. Today A “new” eBay
- 82. How have we done? 2011 Revenue 2011 Segment Margin Middle $5-7 of Billion range Middle 35-45% of range 2009 Current 2009 Current Analyst Day Trajectory Analyst Day Trajectory Forecast Forecast 82
- 83. Marketplaces mix shift... 2008 Q4 2010 Global Revenue Adjacencies Adjacencies and Vehicles Fixed and Vehicles Price Fixed Price Auctions Auctions Adjacencies include Classifieds, Advertising, StubHub and other non-transactional revenue
- 84. The eBay Strategy Improve Trust Increase Selection Develop Tailored Shopping Experiences Market the eBay experience Innovate for Customers 84
- 85. Driving Technology, User Experience & Innovation Mark Carges Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, Marketplaces February 10, 2011 85
- 86. Technology: Transforming the shopping experience Culture of innovation focused on customer needs Tailored shopping experiences across categories and devices World class technology organization delivering greater innovation 86
- 87. That‟s great, but … “Did you fix search?” “Have you improved the user experience?” 87
- 88. 2009 Priorities Search Catalog User Experience Platform 88
- 91. Catalog enables: Product based experience 91
- 92. User experience improvements: Fashion: Personalization & profiles 92
- 93. User experience improvements: Fashion: Image search 93
- 94. Platform improvements: eBay Mobile (iPad, iPhone, Android, RIM, Windows) 94
- 96. Highlights of key launches since March 2009 Fashion Shopping Experience, Fashion Outlet, Fashion Vault Motors Parts and Accessories Shopping Experience eBay Group Gifts Tell Us What You Think Image Search and Visual Navigation Fitment for Motors Parts and Accessories Instant Sale Full Product-based Experience in MP3 Players, GPS, and DVDs Greatly Improved Search Experience and Relevance Expanding Coverage in Catalogs eBay Buyer Protection eBay Garden Simplified Selling, Tools for Large Sellers, Better Shipping Visibility Deals: Daily Deals, Flash Sales, eBay Bucks, DealFinder New Home Page Modern Site Design eBay Top-Rated Sellers Hands-down Leader in Mobile Commerce 96
- 97. Transforming eBay in 2011+ Search Catalog User Experience Platform • Develop • Leverage • Transform site • Faster search as catalog across experience innovation competitive eBay • Create more • Mobile: enable advantage • Simplify tailored access selling shopping experiences 97
- 98. International Marketplaces Douglas McCallum Senior Vice President, Marketplaces Europe February 10, 2011 98
- 99. This is an extraordinary time for eBay. 99
- 100. International: Large growth opportunity eBay non-vehicle GMV eCommerce aggregate growth (2010) opportunity, 2011 – 2015 (Est.) 190% Larger $270B 38% 62% $95B US International International US Source: Forrester and Euromonitor; excluding travel 10 0
- 101. Increased customer focus by categories Passionate about shopping in their category Fashion Electronics Many shared requirements such as easy finding & trusted shopping experience Some category-specific needs, such as visual browsing & size filters in Home fashion 10 1
- 102. eBay strategy is working in the UK Improve Trust Increase Selection Develop Tailored Shopping Experiences Market the eBay Experience Innovate for Customers 10 2
- 103. UK: Greatly improved trust perception Top-rated sellers are … leading to enhanced increasing share of UK customer perception GMV … Video 30% 18% Top Competitor Q4 '09 Q4 '10 Q4 „09 Q4 „10 % of UK Core GMV NPS for Active Buyers from Top-rated sellers Source: Based on surveys conducted by eBay and a 3 rd party vendor 10 3
- 104. UK: Dramatic increase in selection Significant pricing and search changes 60% 25% 2007 2008 2009 2010 YoY Average weekly fixed price live listings in the UK growth 10 4
- 105. Featuring leading UK brands & retailers 10 5
- 106. eBay: A fashionable destination 10 6
- 107. Outlet sellers: Brands people love 10 7
- 108. Integrated marketing drives awareness Video 10 8
- 109. Innovation in the UK with mobile A new channel for our … very attractive to our sellers … buyers ~260% YoY Growth Q4 '09 Q4 '10 2010 quarterly mobile GMV 10 9
- 110. Strategy driving share gains in the UK eBay vs. UK eCommerce market growth 19% UK eCommerce 15% market growth 10% 8% 2009 2010 % YoY growth Source: Forrester; market growth excludes travel 11 0
- 111. eBay EU plans: Building on UK Fashion Applying recipe to other From a step-change strategic verticals in online fashion … … to Rolling out to Germany & other European markets 11 1
- 112. eBay leadership in Germany Unique Visitors vs. #2 Player 1.2x 1.3x 2.4x 1.8x Source: Nielsen 11 2
- 113. Apply the strategy to Germany Improve Trust Improve Trust • eBay Buyer Protection Increase Selection • C2C & B2C growth Increase Selection • Brands4Friends Develop Tailored Shopping Develop Tailored Shopping • Fashion experience Experiences Experiences • Electronics experience Market the eBay Experience • Retail positioning with Market the eBay Experience integrated marketing Innovate for Customers Innovate for Customers • Mobile innovation 11 3
- 114. Foundation of trust in Germany 2010 2011 2012+ Higher seller standards • Ramp Top-rated seller penetration eBay Buyer Protection program • Raise consumer understanding • Further PayPal penetration • Strengthen Buyer protection 11 4
- 115. Brands4Friends: Private Sales leader NIKE MEXX SAMSONITE BURTON PUMA ORWELL Over 600 direct brand Flash sales provides relationships retail experience Selection of brands sold on Brands4Friends.de; Source Brands4Friends.de 11 5
- 116. Accelerating Brands4Friends‟ leadership 11 6
- 117. Deals program driving results “Deals” driving velocity in … resulting in GMV growth Germany … +170% YoY Growth Q4'09 Q4'10 “Deals” GMV in Germany 11 7
- 118. eBay is building on its success in Europe Extending leadership in UK Employing strategy in Germany Competing in France & Italy Increasing leadership in Netherlands & Scandinavian Positioning for growth in Russia & Eastern Europe 11 8
- 119. Growth in Asia-Pacific region Portfolio of Korea: market leadership marketplaces through Gmarket and IAC Australia: strong business exceeding market growth China: leveraging exports business for global customers India: market leading position with significant growth opportunity Rest of Asia: expanding footprint through partnerships & investments 11 9
- 120. Global Marketplace enables cross-border trade ~20% of eBay business is across borders* *As of Q4 2010 12 0
- 121. Actively managing China & HK exports Partner with China and Hong Kong sellers to improve buyer experience GMV of China and Hong Kong Top-rated sellers grew by 33% in Q4 2010 YoY Facilitate inventory sourcing for Top-rated US sellers 12 1
- 122. Summary: eBay‟s international opportunity 62% of 2010 GMV international Portfolio of market leading positions eBay strategy customized by geography Global Marketplace enables cross-border trade Expanding within new geographic markets 12 2
- 123. Marketplaces North America Christopher Payne Vice President, Marketplaces North America February 10, 2011 12 3
- 124. Christopher, … “Can eBay compete in the U.S. market?” 12 4
- 125. I believe we can. 12 5
- 126. Our focus 12 6
- 127. 2010: Increased selection Implemented search, pricing and format changes to increase selection: 100M Items 35M Items Jan „10 Dec „10 Listings in Core Search Results 12 7
- 128. 2010: Improvements driving conversion Sold items accelerating 8% 4% Q4 '09 Q4 '10 % YoY growth of US Sold Items 12 8
- 129. 2011: Executing on eBay strategy Improve Trust Increase Selection Develop Tailored Shopping Experiences Market the eBay Experience Innovate for Customers 12 9
- 130. Trust: Consistent, trusted marketplace Launched eBay Buyer Protection Growing Top-rated Sellers Removed sub-standard sellers 13 0
- 131. Trust: Results show it is working… Trust: “Safe place to shop” Improving H2 ‟09 H2 ‟10 trust on eBay 67% 66% 63% 58% Best in Best in Class Class Top buyers Top buyers Based on surveys conducted by eBay and a Third Party vendor; survey question :“[company‟s site] is a safe place to shop online” 13 1
- 132. Trust: Free shipping Increasing Sales with Free Shipping 33% 5% Q1 „08 Q4 „10 Percent of sold items with free shipping 13 2
- 133. Selection: Stimulate business selling Top-rated sellers grew with market +12% Growth Q4 '09 Q4 '10 GMV for Top-rated sellers 13 3
- 134. eBay Business Seller: Barnes & Noble 13 4
- 135. Selection: Stimulate consumer selling Increasing consumer engagement Buyers who sell increase value for eBay Average Buyer Average Buyer who sells Customer Value for eBay 13 5
- 136. Selection: eBay Instant Sale 13 6
- 137. Tailored shopping experience: Customer needs Fashion Tech Tickets Vehicle parts Shopping behavior Want tailored shopping differs by category experiences 13 7
- 138. Launched tailored shopping experiences Electronics 13 8
- 139. Tailored shopping experience: Tickets StubHub 23% GMV CAGR 2008 2009 2010 13 9
- 140. Tailored shopping experience: Motors Motor Parts Business: 10% YoY Tire center: +18% Conversion GMV growth in Q4 '10 rate (Q4 YoY growth) 14 0
- 141. Tailored shopping experience: Fashion Fashion: 8% YoY GMV growth in Q4 '10 14 1
- 142. Launched tailored shopping experiences Electronics 14 2
- 143. 14 3
- 144. Innovation: Expanding opportunities Local Social Mobile 14 4
- 145. Innovation: Milo & RedLaser integration Customers Increases selection through local options Retailers Increases foot traffic and sales 14 5
- 146. 2011: Executing on eBay strategy Improve Trust Increase Selection Develop Tailored Shopping Experiences Market the eBay Experience Innovate for Customers 14 6
- 147. Driving Technology, User Experience & Innovation Mark Carges Senior Vice President and Chief Technology Officer, Marketplaces February 10, 2011 14 7
- 148. Innovation: Expanding opportunities Local Social Mobile 14 8
- 149. Local Accessing offline inventory online. 14 9
- 150. Local Increasing selection & options for customers as the lines blur between online and offline commerce 15 0
- 151. Social Social networking drives shopping behavior. 15 1
- 152. Social Leveraging the social graph to enable engagement and social commerce 15 2
- 153. Mobile Mobile devices make anyplace a store. 15 3
- 154. iPhone Fashion App: Virtually try on sunglasses 15 4
- 155. Mobile Mobile devices make anyplace a store. 15 5
- 156. Mobile Extending leadership position by providing access any time, any place, any device 15 6
- 157. Open Commerce Platform 15 7
- 158. Marketplaces & PayPal have developer networks Developer Network Opened platforms to external developer networks 15 8
- 159. Merchant & consumer needs are changing Consumers want… Merchants want… • to find what they want • multiple channels • when they want it • demand generation • how they want it • fast innovation Anywhere, anytime Without complexity 15 9
- 160. eBay has unique assets to address needs • Payments • Demand generation • Identity • Inventory • Data/Catalog 16 0
- 161. eBay Inc. – Enabling commerce 16 1
- 163. Capitalizing on our Opportunities Bob Swan CFO San Jose February 10, 2011
- 164. Agenda … Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now Over the next 3 years… Our framework for execution... PayPal… extending leadership position Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities Capital allocation… investing for growth 3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
- 165. What we said … Analyst Day Mar‟09 Our aspiration for 2011 Revenue Goal $10 - $12 B 2011 EPS CAGR Mid-single 2009 - 2011 digit Free Cash Flow $6 to 7 billion 2009 - 2011
- 166. What we said … Analyst Day Mar‟09 $4 - $5B $5 - $7B Revenue High growth & Grow at ecommerce $1B+ rates in‟10, faster in Hyper growth gaining share ‟11 Key On-eBay Fixed price, penetration, Users growth Merchant Advertising, activity services, Classifieds, driver BML, Mobile Buyer retention monetization Direct 18% to 35% to 18% to segment margin* 20% 45% 20% * As of March 2009: Direct segment margin does not include ~3-4 points of corporate overhead
- 167. Achieving full potential requires… Excellence What we said … Operational Operating $2B over 3 Significant smarter years investment Customer Lower Customer loyalty retention / retention / loyalty processing costs ...lower take rate User experience / Improved search / platform customer experience Improved trust / Organization comprehension simplification
- 168. On track to deliver … 13-14% Revenue* REVENUE CAGR $10.3B – $10.6B $9.2B $8.1B $3.4B PayPal $2.8B Marketplaces $5.3B $5.7B 2009 2010 2011 Guidance (Jan 19, 2011) Non-GAAP $1.47 $1.73 $1.90-$1.95 EPS* 14-15% Op Margin* 29.5% 29.5% ~ flat Y/Y EPS CAGR * Ex Skype; reconciliation in appendix
- 169. On track to deliver OE cost savings … Cost Savings Achieved... ... while reinvesting wisely ~$1.0B A lower take rate... Align with our sellers $0.8B More R&D... Accelerating the $0.6B rate of innovation A more trusted experience... eBay / PayPal protections More loyal customers... Less churn 2009 2010 2011 Est.
- 170. … on track to deliver ... FCF ... cumulative free cash flows > $6.5B 2011 Est. > $2.3B+ 2010 $2.0B Reduced by ~$350M one-time tax payments 2009 $2.3B *Reconciliation in appendix
- 171. ... On track to deliver ... portfolio ... a stronger, more focused portfolio Sold 70% of Skype... …Strengthened core businesses ~ $2B Proceeds ~ $2.7B dba/BilBasen/ Brands4Friends… Alternative formats Gmarket… expand Asia Reinvested presence BML …extend PayPal reach
- 172. ... we have an increasingly diverse portfolio By Format... ... By Geography 2010 Revenue PP on Asia Auctions eBay 15% Americas Marketplaces Merchant 49% Services Europe Fixed 36% Price PayPal Adjacencies/ Seeds Marketplaces Adjacencies/ Seeds
- 173. ... and market trends are in our favor ... Market growth rates... The lines of commerce Consumers can shop accelerating! are blurring anywhere all the time Web- • On and off-line influenced ~15% offline Offline • Many devices CAGR 37% 57% • All geographies Online Last ~3 years Next ~3 years 6% ... Sellers/merchants Global eCommerce Y/Y* eCommerce + retail** need help navigating * Global eCommerce growth estimates, Forrester and Euromonitor, excludes online travel ** 2010 US forecast, Forrester Research
- 174. As we enter 2011 … We feel good about where we are: Improving macro picture ... Expanding market opportunity A stronger, more diverse portfolio... And a massive global footprint Stable “Core”... “Adjacencies” with scale... Seeds” with possibilities Ops Excellence... The way we work Excellent balance sheet ... See enormous opportunity ahead
- 175. ... and we recognize the concerns Increasing competition ... in both e-commerce & payments ... US & Intl. The Core eBay ... bridging gap to competition without end-to-end control Evolving regulatory framework ... Durbin ... PayPal margin implications Growing cash balance... What will you do ... We are confident in our plans !!
- 176. Agenda … Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now Over the next 3 years… Our framework for execution... PayPal… extending leadership position Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities Capital allocation… investing for growth 3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
- 177. Our framework for growth ... Protect and Expand Plant and Extend our “Adjacencies” Grow “Seeds” “Core” Businesses ...Leverage our platform... and balance sheet
- 178. Our framework for execution ... Operating $1B+ over next 3 Significant smarter years (2011-2013) investment Lower Increased processing consumer costs / fraud engagement Better customer experience ... Improved Fewer defects customer experience... more outbound Scale... Accelerate leverage innovation ... more product
- 179. Our framework for capital allocation ... Redistribute Strategic Excess Cash Organic Acquisitions/ Redistribute Investment Investments Cash ~Buyback ~ Strengthen our Offset comp-based Fund BML growth portfolio... extend our dilution reach ... while maintaining financial flexibility !!
- 180. Agenda … Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now Over the next 3 years… Our framework for execution... PayPal… extending leadership position Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities Capital allocation… investing for growth 3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
- 181. Framework for growth … PayPal global share* * PayPal global share Follow our merchants... 20-24% our customers ... and 2013E 2013E 20-24% Local Merchant coverage Offline... Merchant coverage 2010 18% Social Point 18% Of Sale 2010 14% 2008 14% 2008 Consumer Consumer preference preference Credit Digital Mobile P2P Accelerate the rate of innovation Platform X ... Seeds * Internal analysis; not to scale; excludes Bill Me Later 181
- 182. What do you have to believe ... Revenue Low CAGR % Mid-high ~21% ~24%+ $6 - 7B ~35% ~40%+ Seeds Seeds ... Credit / $3.4B Credit Other ~25% ~30%+ Adjacencies... Merchant Services Merchant Services Core ... On eBay ~7% ~9%+ 2010 2013 Est. 182
- 183. Growth on eBay ... A $40B+ TPV Platform in 2013*… …Increased penetration* Stable aGMV growth… Americas ~85%... stable mid-high single digits Europe >60%... + ~10 pts Asia >80%... stable Cross Border >80%... + ~5 pts Trade 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 E 2012 E 2013 E … ~75%+ penetration !!* * Company projections 183
- 184. Merchant Services momentum continues ... A $125B+ TPV Platform in 2013*… CAGR %** PayPal global share** Market/SSS Growth… ~ 10-15% 2013E 20-24% Seeds Merchant coverage Increased Coverage… ~ 5-10% Credit 18% 2010 Increased Consumer ~ 10-15% Frequency… 14% 2008 ~ 25-40% Consumer preference * 2010 to 2013 CAGR: company projections **Internal analysis; not to scale; excludes Bill Me Later 184
- 185. New products gain momentum ... Credit/BML Digital Goods Mobile Revenues nTPV nTPV 10X+ 3X+ 3X+ 2010 2013 Est. 2010 2013 Est. 2010 2013 Est.
- 186. ... and Platform expands opportunities Developer platform Enables opportunities Enables opportunities accelerates time to we would never we don’t do… market… think of… • 60k developers ... 1,500 apps • Innovative solutions for changing payments landscape
- 187. PayPal‟s business model … Great proposition Consumer Funding Risk management for merchants Choice (Transaction losses) (Global take rate) (Transaction Expense) '08 '09 '10 Future* '08 '09 '10 Future* '08 '09 '10 Future* Stable / down declines stable / down ... ~60%+ transaction margin business* * Company projections
- 188. OE improves customer experience ... Consumer Engagement Our Contact/Ops ... Our Product ... Merchant Adoption Center... Development cycle (Sales & Marketing % Revenue) (% of Revenue) (% of Revenue) ~11% ~8% ~10% Outbound Innovate Responsive Responsive Sustain/ Maintain 2010 Future* 2010 Future * 2010 Future* Creates capacity to invest ... and drives operating leverage/efficiency * Company projections
- 189. Ops Excellence ... funds investments „10 Segment margin ~ 21%... Transaction margin Significant operating Higher R&D... marginally lower leverage and process Consumer improvement engagement ... Yields „13 segment margin ~ 24-26%* * Company projections
- 190. In summary, PayPal 2013 outlook $6 - $7B Revenue (mid-point CAGR: 24%) High growth & gaining share Consumer Preferences, Key growth drivers Merchant coverage; New Products New Markets Direct segment margin* 24% to 26% *Direct segment margin does not include ~3 points of corporate overhead
- 191. Agenda … Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now Over the next 3 years… Our framework for execution... PayPal… extending leadership position Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities Capital allocation… investing for growth 3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
- 192. Framework for growth ... The core platform... New formats New markets Existing: New: Advertising, Local, Classifieds, Social Private sale, StubHub Technology Tailored Engagement Trust User Shopping Customer Accelerate experience Experiences focus the rate of innovation Platform... mobile
- 193. What do you have to believe ... Revenue CAGR % Low Mid-High ~7% ~10%+ $7-8B Seeds $5.7B ~12% ~15%+ Credit Adjacent formats / Seeds* eBay Platform** ~5% ~7%+ GMV 2010 2013 Est. * Classifieds, Advertising, StubHub, Shopping.com, Rent.com, other ** GMV-based transactional business, excluding StubHub
- 194. The Core... a ~$75B+* GMV platform in „13 The widest selection... The best deals... A trusted experience Fixed Price ... Auction stable ... ... Vehicles format expands... shift Double digit CAGR Flat ... '09 '10 '13 E '09 '10 '13 E '09 '10 '13 E From 50% to ~70% From 50% to ~30% Shifting from GMV to of GMV... ** of GMV...** lead gen model ** Note: All GMV figures are FX-neutral *Company projections **Growth rates are 2008-2010 CAGR, ex Gmarket
- 195. Connecting ... with adjacent formats Today, a nearly $1.3B collection of businesses... Classifieds Advertising- Improved format* based format** Verticals Double-digit Mid-single Double-digit Private CAGR digit CAGR CAGR sale StubHub Revenue Revenue Revenue 2010 2013 E 2010 2013 E 2010 2013 E ... Expected to grow at ~15% CAGR *Includes Rent.com revenue ** Includes Shopping.com revenue
- 196. “Seeds”... Better conversion... new markets Organic Acquisitions Investments Innovation • Mobile / Local / • Red Laser • Magento Social • Milo • Appcelerator • Group Gifts • Critical Path • Deal Finder Software • Instant Sale • Deal Blasts
- 197. OE improves customer experience ... Growing trusted Improved buyer Satisfaction sellers experience guaranteed % of GMV... BBEs 32%+ Q4‟10 Consistent ... from decline Top rated Q4‟10 sellers ... with Free Shipping Reducing number of bad buyer experiences eBay Buyer Protection ... Lower customer ... Lower customer service ... Increased protection acquisition costs; more outbound... costs
- 198. Ops Excellence ... to fund investments „10 Segment margin ~ 40%... Leverage and Ops Faster growing Fund investments Excellence adjacencies in trust, engagement and innovation Operating Margin Levers ... Yields „13 segment margin ~ 38 to 42%* * Company projections
- 199. In summary, Marketplaces 2013 outlook Marketplaces $7 - $8B (mid-point CAGR : 10%) Revenue Grow with ecommerce rates, lead innovation Tailored shopping Key growth drivers experiences, Local C2C strength, global tickets, Mobile, Offline, Platform Direct segment 38% to 42% margin* *Direct segment margin does not include ~3 points of corporate overhead
- 200. Agenda … Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now Over the next 3 years… Our framework for execution... PayPal… extending leadership position Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities Capital allocation… investing for growth 3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
- 201. We enter „11 with a strong balance sheet Change in Cash Excellent cash flows... A stronger, more focused portfolio... Lower cost of capital Debt: $0.7B $7.8B $1.8B Buyback M&A: US FCF: $3.0B Skype: $2.7B $4.4B $2.0B $3.3B Int‟l $5.1B 2008 Ending Balance 2010 Ending Balance ... and the flexibility and discipline to invest wisely
- 202. Our philosophy … in order of priority Redistribute Strategic Excess Cash Organic Acquisitions/ Redistribute Investment Investments Cash ~Buyback ~ Strengthen our Offset comp-based Fund BML growth portfolio... extend our dilution reach ... while maintaining financial flexibility !!
- 203. Accelerate strategic priorities with M&A ... Capitalize on key market trends … • Mobile • Social • Digital • Local PayPal: Digital wallet … Expand our Marketplaces: • Merchant growth Alternate formats... geographic “enablers”; tailored shopping footprint experiences... • Low cost processor capabilities • Risk analytics ... Enhancing our platform for commerce … … while pursuing Technology/Talent-based acquisitions to accelerate organic plans
- 204. Recent acquisitions ... future growth Mobile Development Local Shopping … Private Sales … … Critical Path Milo.com Brands4Friends Software • Enter new • Participate in • Accelerates organic adjacency fastest-growing plans with channel for technology & talent • Real-time secondary CSA in acquisition availability of local Europe inventory • Increases mobile • Strengthens talent, capacity and • Brings offline position as a capabilities inventory online leading online fashion destination in Europe • Integration with eBay.com and RedLaser mobile app
- 205. Investments … to enhance opportunities Geographic Adjacencies Non-Core Reach
- 206. Agenda … Since March „09 Analyst Day... where we are now Over the next 3 years… Our framework for execution... PayPal… extending leadership position Marketplaces… expanding market opportunities Capital allocation… investing for growth 3 year outlook… what you should expect from us
- 207. Our 3 year outlook to 2013 Marketplaces $6 - $7B $7 - $8B (mid-point CAGR: 24%) (mid-point CAGR : 10%) Revenue High growth & Grow with ecommerce gaining share rates, lead innovation Consumer Tailored shopping Key Preferences, experiences, Local C2C growth Merchant coverage; strength, global tickets, New Products Mobile, Offline, Platform driver New Markets Direct segment 24% to 26% 38% to 42% margin* *Direct segment margin does not include ~3 points of corporate overhead
- 208. Our aspiration for 2013 Revenue Goal $13B - $15B 2013 Non-GAAP EPS CAGR 10 - 14% 2010 – 2013** Free Cash Flow* $7.5 to 8.5B 2011 - 2013 *Reconciliation in appendix **CAGR is measured using 2010 as the base
- 209. Summary … Incredible opportunity Well positioned … unmatched competitive advantages Accelerating innovation
- 210. APPENDIX
- 211. Reconciliation of GAAP to Non- GAAP EPS Reconciliation of GAAP EPS to Non-GAAP EPS Twelve Months Ended December 31, December 31, December 31, December 31, December 31, (In millions, except per share amounts) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 GAAP net income (loss) $ 1,125.6 $ 348.3 $ 1,779.4 $ 2,389.1 $ 1,801.0 Stock-based compensation expense 317.4 301.8 352.1 394.8 381.5 Employer payroll taxes on stock-based compensation 5.3 6.9 3.1 5.3 13.8 Amortization of acquired intangible assets (1) 214.9 223.7 264.1 314.8 229.9 Restructuring - - 49.1 38.2 21.4 Impairment of goodwill - 1,390.9 - - - Joltid settlement - - - 343.2 - Sale of Skype and transaction related items - - - (1,407.5) 18.1 Amortization of intangibles and stock-based compensation for Skype - - - - 35.8 Income taxes associated with certain non-GAAP entries (171.6) (165.4) (202.9) (12.1) (202.8) Non-GAAP net income $ 1,491.6 $ 2,106.2 $ 2,244.9 $ 2,065.8 $ 2,298.7 Non-GAAP net income attributable to Skype - - - (147.0) - Non-GAAP net income excluding Skype $ 1,491.6 $ 2,106.2 $ 2,244.9 $ 1,918.8 $ 2,298.7 Diluted net income per share: GAAP $ 0.79 $ 0.25 $ 1.36 $ 1.83 $ 1.36 Non-GAAP $ 1.05 $ 1.53 $ 1.71 $ 1.58 $ 1.73 Non-GAAP excluding Skype $ - $ - $ - $ 1.47 $ 1.73 Shares used in non-GAAP diluted share calculation 1,425 1,376 1,313 1,305 1,327 (1) Includes amortization of acquired intangible assets within cost of net revenues and operating expenses.
- 212. Calculation of Free Cash Flow (FCF) Reconciliation of Operating Cash Flow to Free Cash Flow Twelve Months Ended December 31, December 31, December 31, December 31, December 31, (in millions) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 GAAP operating cash flow $ 2,247.8 $ 2,641.3 $ 2,882.0 $ 2,908.1 $ 2,745.8 Purchases of property and equipment, net (515.4) (454.0) (565.9) (567.1) (723.9) Free cash flow $ 1,732.4 $ 2,187.3 $ 2,316.1 $ 2,341.0 $ 2,021.9
- 213. Reconciliation of FY 2011 and FY2011- FY2013 Free Cash Flow (FCF) projection Reconciliation of Operating Cash Flow to Free Cash Flow Twelve Months Ended 3 Years Total (in Billions) 31-Dec-2011 FY2011 - FY2013 GAAP operating cash flow ~3.1B $10B - $11.3B Purchases of property and equipment, net ~($0.8B) ($2.5B - $2.8B) Free cash flow ~$2.3B $7.5B to $8.5B
- 214. Calculation of ROIC Reconciliation of Return of Invested Capital (ROIC) In millions, except percentages (in thousands, except percentages) Numerator components: Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Non-GAAP operating income $ 593,445 $ 594,664 $ 593,445 $ 754,979 $ 701,364 $ 700,487 $ 674,318 $ 667,958 $ 620,347 $ 602,252 $ 635,468 $ 694,976 $ 672,852 $ 645,650 $ 644,997 $ 736,729 Non-GAAP effective tax rate 26% 25% 10% 24% 23% 22% 17% 24% 22% 20% 21% 16% 22% 21% 21% 8% Non-GAAP operating income after tax $ 441,523 $ 447,544 $ 531,845 $ 576,276 $ 540,892 $ 549,673 $ 559,684 $ 508,685 $ 485,732 $ 482,223 $ 505,197 $ 580,791 $ 524,286 $ 510,967 $ 509,806 $ 674,789 Denominator components: Q1'07 Q2'07 Q3'07 Q4'07 Q1'08 Q2'08 Q3'08 Q4'08 Q1'09 Q2'09 Q3'09 Q4'09 Q1'10 Q2'10 Q3'10 Q4'10 Total assets 13,920,051 14,361,157 14,786,812 15,366,037 15,046,305 15,021,625 14,240,157 15,592,439 15,127,787 16,566,289 17,356,372 18,408,320 18,690,178 18,747,584 19,948,062 22,003,762 Total cash, cash equivalents and investments 3,519,880 3,793,677 4,461,775 5,035,692 4,108,141 4,181,717 3,777,482 3,458,840 3,326,805 3,134,478 3,638,587 6,325,569 6,505,468 6,725,768 7,463,927 9,114,826 Current liabilities 2,250,571 2,328,643 3,272,867 3,099,579 3,080,432 3,006,234 2,854,733 3,705,087 3,159,924 3,730,364 3,646,678 3,641,968 3,587,011 3,564,261 3,808,909 4,516,514 TTM Non-GAAP operating income after tax $ 1,518,940 $ 1,633,595 $ 1,827,615 $ 1,997,188 $ 2,096,556 $ 2,198,685 $ 2,226,524 $ 2,158,933 $ 2,103,774 $ 2,036,324 $ 1,981,837 $ 2,053,943 $ 2,092,498 $ 2,121,242 $ 2,125,851 $ 2,219,848 TTM average total assets 13,339,193 13,697,718 14,005,030 14,385,614 14,696,072 14,916,387 14,892,187 15,053,313 15,005,663 15,309,659 15,776,609 16,610,241 17,229,789 17,953,749 18,630,103 19,559,581 TTM 95% of average cash, cash equivalents and investments3,486,641 3,536,980 3,622,670 3,858,237 3,974,641 4,100,390 4,097,313 3,906,756 3,582,067 3,397,071 3,293,876 3,778,013 4,356,872 5,002,675 5,825,271 6,865,756 TTM average current liabilities 2,078,113 2,207,540 2,518,232 2,694,011 2,806,418 2,957,551 3,062,769 3,149,213 3,161,282 3,291,268 3,419,357 3,576,804 3,553,189 3,634,056 3,649,765 3,823,733 ROIC 19.5% 20.5% 23.2% 25.5% 26.5% 28.0% 28.8% 27.0% 25.5% 23.6% 21.9% 22.2% 22.5% 22.8% 23.2% 25.0% (in thousands, except percentages) Full Year Ended December 31, 2007 2008 2009 2010 TTM Non-GAAP operating income after tax $ 1,997,188 $ 2,158,933 $ 2,053,943 $ 2,219,848 TTM average total assets 14,385,614 15,053,313 16,610,241 19,559,581 TTM 95% of average cash, cash equivalents and investments3,858,237 3,906,756 3,976,856 6,865,756 TTM average current liabilities 2,694,011 3,149,213 3,576,804 3,823,733 ROIC 25.5% 27.0% 22.7% 25.0%
- 215. Three Months Ending Reconciliation of FY 2011 GAAP to Non- March 31, 2011 (in millions, except per share amounts) GAAP Non-GAAP (a) Revenues $2,400 - $2,500 $2,400 - $2,500 GAAP Guidance (Jan. 19, 2011) Diluted EPS $0.34 - $0.36 $0.44 - $0.46 (a) Estimated non-GAAP amounts above for the three months ending March 31, 2011, reflect the adjustments that exclude the estimated amortization of acquired intangible assets of approximately $50 - $60 million, estimated stock-based compensation expense and employer payroll taxes on stock-based compensation expense of approximately $110 - $130 million and estimated restructuring charges of approximately $1 million. Full Year Ending December 31, 2011 (in millions, except per share amounts) GAAP Non-GAAP (b) Revenues $10,300 - $10,600 $10,300 - $10,600 Diluted EPS $1.56- $ 1.61 $1.90 - $1.95 (b) Estimated non-GAAP amounts above for the twelve months ending December 31, 2011, reflect adjustments that exclude the estimated amortization of acquired intangible assets of approximately $200 - $240 million, estimated stock-based compensation expense and employer payroll taxes on stock-based compensation expense of approximately $420 - $460 million and estimated restruturing charges of approximately $1 million.